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- S3 Pit fade series added.
09.05.2013
S3
(A Bet) Pit fade: NY Mets 1,877 1,14u
P2
(A Bet) J.Guthrie: Kansas City 2,03 0,971u
P3
(A Bet) J.Vargas fade: Houston 2,36 0,735u
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all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
records:Originally Posted by Stifler
S1: W 10 | L 0 (+10,00 units)
S2: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
S3: W 57 | L 1 (+20,497 units)
P1: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
P2: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
P3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
pending:
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 10.05.2013
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 C.Sabathia, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 J.Vargas fade, B Bet on next start on the road
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10.05.2013
S1
(A Bet) SD fade: Tampa Bay - waiting on line movement
S2
(B Bet) Cle fade: Kansas City 1,658 1,52u | Detroit 1,505 4,99u
(A Bet) Ari fade: Phillies 2,46 0,685u
S3
(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,505 1,98u
(A Bet) SD fade: Tampa Bay - waiting on line movement
P3
(A Bet) M.Scherzer: Detroit 1,505 1,98u
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- TB line added.
10.05.2013
S1
(A Bet) SD fade: Tampa Bay 1,592 1,69u
S2
(B Bet) Cle fade: Kansas City 1,658 1,52u | Detroit 1,505 4,99u
(A Bet) Ari fade: Phillies 2,46 0,685u
S3
(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,505 1,98u
(A Bet) SD fade: Tampa Bay 1,592 1,69u
P3
(A Bet) M.Scherzer: Detroit 1,505 1,98u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
Why is DET such a big favorite over CLE? I cant figure it out, the way CLE has been playing and with what I see as a pretty even pitching match up, I could see an easy upset here. Both teams playing well, just dont see Det being anything over -125 vs them.
I know when I saw 1.5 for Det .. im like oh they be playing MIA. In my normal betting Cleveland is a team I'd be all over with odds like that.
Detroit is receiving the NYY, LA Laker, Manchester United syndrome perhaps...
That or... Cleveland is super hot and betting public might be on them. Maybe Vegas knows something we dont know and want to make it so cleveland is backed
Scheezer is awesome. That is why.
I stayed away from the bet, but looking like I shouldn't of strayed... gotta remember systems need to be blind....
Nice win by Detroit, great come back by TampaBay.
Yeah!!
records:
S1: W 11 | L 0 (+11,00 units)
S2: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
S3: W 59 | L 1 (+22,497 units)
P1: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
P2: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
P3: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
pending:
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 C.Sabathia, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 J.Vargas fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Ari fade, B Bet on 11.05.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
11.05.2013
S1
(A Bet) Stl fade: Colorado 2,56 0,641u
S2
(B Bet) Ari fade: Phillies 2,46 0,685u | Phillies 1,99 1,702u
P1
(B Bet) M.Buehrle fade: TB -1,5 2,40 0,714u| Boston -1,5 2,00 1,714u
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 3,100,476u
P2
(B Bet) M.Buehrle fade: TB 1,667 1,50u | Boston 1,493 5,071u
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 3,100,476u
P3
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 3,100,476u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
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Grinders Pathetic Team Chase
If Stiffler will allow me to piggie back on his thread (I can create a new thread if I get feedback I should)
Here is the difference - we are ONLY fading Houston and Miami. Start a new chase EVERY GAME. So be very conservative, if things go bad and Miami suddenly becomes hot (LOL) we could be in big trouble.
Miami has won more then 1 game in a row twice (2 and a 3 games in a row)
Houston has won more then 1 in a two 3 times (twice 2 and once 3)
So take this as a fun little thing. I got this idea from a dude that a couple years ago who faded Pittsburgh EVERY game and won a ton. According to Joe Peta (Trading Bases) after a team has played 40 games you pretty much know how good they are.
So since Miami could have an all time low Runs score in MLB and Houston has proved to be pathitic so far . . . . .
SO - here we go,
5/11/13 play the green team
note - 1.9 units wagered to win 1.00 units! If you lose you lose 1.9u, win you win 1.00u
G1A Mia fade LAD 1.9u - 1.00u
G2A Hou fade Tex 2.4u - 1.00u
New thread
Last edited by Grinder12000; 05-11-13 at 10:38 AM.
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great thread mate awesome thanxs keep hitting i wonder when did u try calculating all these systems s1 s2 s3 has it been easy for u or u worked for many years ?11.05.2013
S1
(A Bet) Stl fade: Colorado 2,56 0,641u
S2
(B Bet) Ari fade: Phillies 2,46 0,685u | Phillies 1,99 1,702u
P1
(B Bet) M.Buehrle fade: TB -1,5 2,40 0,714u| Boston -1,5 2,00 1,714u
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 3,100,476u
P2
(B Bet) M.Buehrle fade: TB 1,667 1,50u | Boston 1,493 5,071u
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 3,100,476u
P3
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 3,100,476u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
I ran this last year for the second half of the season, it didn't do well. I ended down almost 30 units. I did have the stretches where the bad two teams were constantly losing, but also the small stretches where the bad teams win, which always happens, and gets very costly. I ran mine on the run line, maybe you will have different success. The problem doing it on the M/L is that a bad team could lose between 90-100 games say. If you get a unit for each one of these losses you will net 90-100 units on the series you win. Teams that are this bad are usually major dogs against most opponents, some lines as high as -300. When the bad team beats the good team a few games in a row, which happens more than you know, more than 50% of your profit will dissapear in one series loss if played on the M/L. I did test it both M/L and R/L and while R/L did better, it still lost money during my test. Good luck. I think it was two or three years ago when Baltimore was the bottom team. They had a four game series against Texas when odds for all 4 games were -200+, Baltimore swept Texas. That is at least an 80 unit loss, and that is saying all 4 games were only -200, I believe they were higher.
Wallco. Advice taken. I was thinking of R/L with Miami as they are historically offensively bad bit they already lost one series with R/L. I'm not putting a lot on this. Like 20% of one unit (if that makes sense).
Wallco: I think you can bet r/l and at the same time m/l. This allow you to win r/l and not lose 1run wins. Imo with appropiate br administration you can make some money. Gl
Yes, there is some formula for that in one of these threads from last year. I don't believe it was a 50/50 split of the 1 unit, I think there was a certain pecentage for R/L and certain percentage for M/L of the 1 unit. It is great that it will push the 1 run games, but the losses will cost more for that convenience since portions of the bets are placed on the (-money) M/L. Also, your wins will be for less money.
Creating the -1rl is easy. Whatever amount you risk on the rl, just bet to win that same amount on the ml. And then just adjust for however much you are looking to win
What happened to the thread chasing biggest favorite of the day at -1? I've been doing it past two weeks, with my labby and made little over 10 units so far, but some times i play two games a day based on start of first game. I would suggest labbying against HOU & Mia with labby. How I did it was start with 1 # on my labby line.
Mia to win $20 if you lose than its 20-20, next bet $40, if you lose 20 -20-40 next bet to win 60. Almost like a traditional labby, but start with 1 # so first two games become a chase and than C D E F become recovery. Just run 2 seperate labby lines one for each team its pretty easy.
wallco /dlunc3/jm JUST A COUPLE OF COMMENTS: AVOID BETS INVOLVING THE FOLLOWING TEAMS: KC - CHW - LAA - MIA - CIN - CHC - SF - ARI. THEY HAVE HIGH WON / LOSS RECORD BY ONE. AT THE SAME TIME, AVOID BETS ON TEAMS WITH TWO CONSECUTIVE VICTORIES BY MORE THAN ONE RUN. THERE ARE MORE FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED (PITCHERS EG) THAT REQUIRE A LOT OF TIME. THANKS FOR YOUR COMMENTS. GL.
Last edited by alexy; 05-11-13 at 10:49 PM.
records:
S1: W 11 | L 0 (+11,00 units)
S2: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S3: W 59 | L 1 (+22,497 units)
P1: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
P2: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
P3: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
pending:
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 C.Sabathia, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 M.Buehrle fade, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle fade, C Bet on next start
- P3 J.Vargas fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S1 Stl fade, B Bet on 12.05.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
12.05.2013
S1
(B Bet) Stl fade: Colorado 2,56 0,641u | Colorado - waiting on line movement
S2
(A Bet) Phil fade: Arizona 1,87 1,15u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
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- Colorado line added.
12.05.2013
S1
(B Bet) Stl fade: Colorado 2,56 0,641u | Colorado 2,45 1,132u
S2
(A Bet) Phil fade: Arizona 1,87 1,15u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
records:
S1: W 12 | L 0 (+12,00 units)
S2: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S3: W 59 | L 1 (+22,497 units)
P1: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
P2: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
P3: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
pending:
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 C.Sabathia, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 M.Buehrle fade, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle fade, C Bet on next start
- P3 J.Vargas fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, B Bet on 14.05.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
Just letting my voice be heard. Loving the system Stifler.
WOW Snitch - once you start talking we can't shut you up! :-)
13.05.2013
S3
(A Bet) Pit: Pittsburgh 1,676 1,48u
(A Bet) Hou fade: Detroit 1,357 2,80u
(A Bet) Cubs: Cubs 1,833 1,20u
(A Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,769 1,30u
(A Bet) Oak: Oaklnad 1,82 1,22u
potential plays:
- S3 CHW fade, if line +100 or more
________________________________________ _____________________________________
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I just can't stop typing
No, seriously though, been watching and playing Stiflers system since the start of the season and I thought it might be time to register and become one of the guys who openly appreciates the time you guys spend, while I basicly just sit back and enjoy the fruits of your labor.
If that's not worth a novel, then I don't know what is
Well, im not gonna get burned by the Angels again. Im skipping that series.
That was early in the year when they played Oakland who were in the middle of a 9 game winning streak! AND we were PLAYING LAA who had lost 10 of 12 (which is why I started my own chases so I would not run into those situations).Well, im not gonna get burned by the Angels again. Im skipping that series.
This time LAA has had 2 4-game losing streaks in their last 15 games but Kansas City is not lighting the world on fire having lost 5 of their last 6 so I think we are safe.
BUT - I do not fault you Howard at all and we will see how long I run with this one. To be honest Oakland is the one I worry about! Texas is HOT streaky team and Oakland is COLD streaky team.
BUT!!!!! Play the cards that are dealt.
Wow Milwaukee is 41-7 vs. Pittsburgh since 2007.
Last edited by Grinder12000; 05-13-13 at 10:37 PM.
records:
S1: W 12 | L 0 (+12,00 units)
S2: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S3: W 62 | L 1 (+25,497 units)
P1: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
P2: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
P3: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
pending:
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 J.Lester, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 C.Sabathia, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 M.Buehrle fade, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle fade, C Bet on next start
- P3 J.Vargas fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, B Bet on 20.05.2013
- S3 Pit, B Bet on 14.05.2013
- S3 LAA, B Bet on 14.05.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
Last edited by Stifler; 05-14-13 at 04:16 AM.
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Lakey gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
