1. 04-21-13 02:27 AM #631
    knugen
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    Aahhh damn, played giants tonight on RL to get some of the losses back, cause i played RL on fridays game also. And what happened pitcher
    change and my bets cancelled!!!!!!!
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  2. 04-21-13 03:04 AM #632
    shysta
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    Quote Originally Posted by knugen View Post
    Aahhh damn, played giants tonight on RL to get some of the losses back, cause i played RL on fridays game also. And what happened pitcher
    change and my bets cancelled!!!!!!!

    same here, what bs, and they won.
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  3. 04-21-13 06:22 AM #633
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post

    20.04.2013

    S1

    (A Bet) Stl: St.Louis 2,25 0,80u

    S3

    (B Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u
    (A Bet) Bos: Boston 1,73 1,37u
    (A Bet) CHW: Chicago White Sox 1,625 1,60u

    P1

    (A Bet) M.Buehrle: Toronto 2,00 1,00u

    P2

    (A Bet) M.Buehrle: Toronto 2,00 1,00u
    records:
    S1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    S2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    S3: W 34 | L 1 (-2,503 units)
    P1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    P2: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
    P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


    pending:
    - P2 Masterson, B Bet on next start
    - P1 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
    - P2 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
    - P1 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
    - P2 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
    - S3 NYY fade, C Bet on 21.04.2013
    - S3 CHW, B Bet on 21.04.2013


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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  4. 04-21-13 07:12 AM #634
    Stifler
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    - normally every odd <+100 on the P1 system should be played on the RL (like today). Somehow pinnacle dont offer -1,5 odds on dogs, something i didnt consider at the beginning. But im fine with that, as it should just be the case when the the odds are pretty even for both teams(probably in the 1,90 - 2,00 area).

    21.04.2013

    S3

    (C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
    (B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

    P1

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

    P2

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
    Points Awarded:

    ColdBeerHere gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    jakejd82 gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    GeorgeLynch gave Stifler 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  5. 04-21-13 07:16 AM #635
    chrizgod
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post
    - normally every odd <+100 on the P1 system should be played on the RL (like today). Somehow pinnacle dont offer -1,5 odds on dogs, something i didnt consider at the beginning. But im fine with that, as it should just be the case when the the odds are pretty even for both teams(probably in the 1,90 - 2,00 area).

    21.04.2013

    S3

    (C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
    (B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

    P1

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

    P2

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

    hey Stiffler, pinnacle offers alternate runlines. They are just not up yet.
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  6. 04-21-13 07:19 AM #636
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by chrizgod View Post
    hey Stiffler, pinnacle offers alternate runlines. They are just not up yet.
    i will have a look at it today, but im pretty sure it wasnt offered yesterday for Toronto.
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  7. 04-21-13 09:40 AM #637
    kosti
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    Bet365 is a good option for underdog run lines. They have lines for just about anything
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  8. 04-21-13 09:49 AM #638
    huntley
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    so take Det -1.5 for the P1? Its up right now at 2.52 on pinnacle stif.
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  9. 04-21-13 10:43 AM #639
    Grinder12000
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    Lakey
    It's poor bankroll bankroll management to start this system with only 100 units, especially when it was advised to start with more.
    Grinder
    Actually the advice was 75ish.
    Lakey
    You must be reading a different thread to me.
    Stifler
    i advice to start with atleast 75 units, a bankroll of 100 units would be better
    ANYWAY - I was asked about the largest "D" bet. This does not take into account 3 Parlay "D" bets from last year. I'll have to work on that.

    I tend to stay away from ridiculous wager sizes when they are an anomaly. There comes a time when you have to use common sense. In golf it's called "course management", in wagering it's called bankroll management. I call it common sense.

    Yea - the "D" bet won but I don't want to risk 60 units on basically a coin flip.

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  10. 04-21-13 10:44 AM #640
    DustyDiamond
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    Quote Originally Posted by huntley View Post
    so take Det -1.5 for the P1? Its up right now at 2.52 on pinnacle stif.
    Why would you take Det -1.5 when you can get it for +1.5?
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  11. 04-21-13 11:01 AM #641
    DollarBill10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post
    - normally every odd <+100 on the P1 system should be played on the RL (like today). Somehow pinnacle dont offer -1,5 odds on dogs, something i didnt consider at the beginning. But im fine with that, as it should just be the case when the the odds are pretty even for both teams(probably in the 1,90 - 2,00 area).

    21.04.2013

    S3

    (C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
    (B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

    P1

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

    P2

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

    So how should we play the P1? What's everyone doing? Stifler...what are you going to do for tracking pruposes? This is the 1st I have heard mention of a RL with this system.
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  12. 04-21-13 11:08 AM #642
    Stifler
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    - Toronto line updated.

    21.04.2013

    S3

    (C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto 1,709 6,178u
    (B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

    P1

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

    P2

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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  13. 04-21-13 11:17 AM #643
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by huntley View Post
    so take Det -1.5 for the P1? Its up right now at 2.52 on pinnacle stif.
    your right, P1 play atm would be on Det -1,5, but i think i would wait a lil longer till gametime to see where the line is going.

    im seeing it now @ pinnacle, thought it was listed on the drop-down menu aswell. If the line is <+100 on the P1 team play the Runline (-1,5). Remember the covers line indicates if the line is <+100 or not, cause i backtested there.

    Why would you take Det -1.5 when you can get it for +1.5?
    Cause system was backtested on the -1,5 runline for any covers line <+100 (for P1 only)
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  14. 04-21-13 11:33 AM #644
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grinder12000 View Post
    ANYWAY - I was asked about the largest "D" bet. This does not take into account 3 Parlay "D" bets from last year. I'll have to work on that.

    I tend to stay away from ridiculous wager sizes when they are an anomaly. There comes a time when you have to use common sense. In golf it's called "course management", in wagering it's called bankroll management. I call it common sense.

    Yea - the "D" bet won but I don't want to risk 60 units on basically a coin flip.
    Largest series loss i have backtested was 60,41 units.

    And for the risked amount on 1 game im probably with u. I think i never would lay 60 units on 1 game. I think i will always do a small parlay in that case to reduce the juice, eventhough i may lose a series just because of the parlayed soccer game. These are situations u never wanna see, ur D bet is a winner but u ****** it up with the parlay (happend to me twice last year as i remember correctly, but i also saved units when the series lost that way, due to the fact i did a paraly to reduce the risked amount)

    I just hope it doesnt get to that point that often. I mean we will face those situations on heavy favorites mostly on C, D bets. Mainly those series should be cleared earlier, but sooner or later, like yesterday, it gets to the point. In the end u gotta have to make a decision, however this may look like.
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  15. 04-21-13 11:37 AM #645
    Stifler
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    atm the covers line for Detroit jumped back to +101. This means u should play the moneyline instead. That´s why it´s better to just wait a little longer till gametime.
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  16. 04-21-13 11:57 AM #646
    sportscreep1
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    Stifler,
    Correct on that your playing the P systems as 1/2 unit per?
    Tia.
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  17. 04-21-13 12:08 PM #647
    samrock67
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    Stifler-

    Just curious- if there was a bet on a team that had a doubleheader that day, and they didn't cover on the first game, would you consider the 2nd game as the next bet in the chase, whether it was B, C, or D?
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  18. 04-21-13 12:19 PM #648
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by samrock67 View Post
    Stifler-

    Just curious- if there was a bet on a team that had a doubleheader that day, and they didn't cover on the first game, would you consider the 2nd game as the next bet in the chase, whether it was B, C, or D?
    yes

    Stifler,
    Correct on that your playing the P systems as 1/2 unit per?
    Tia.
    yes
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  19. 04-21-13 12:22 PM #649
    DocZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post
    Largest series loss i have backtested was 60,41 units.

    And for the risked amount on 1 game im probably with u. I think i never would lay 60 units on 1 game. I think i will always do a small parlay in that case to reduce the juice, eventhough i may lose a series just because of the parlayed soccer game. These are situations u never wanna see, ur D bet is a winner but u ****** it up with the parlay (happend to me twice last year as i remember correctly, but i also saved units when the series lost that way, due to the fact i did a paraly to reduce the risked amount)

    I just hope it doesnt get to that point that often. I mean we will face those situations on heavy favorites mostly on C, D bets. Mainly those series should be cleared earlier, but sooner or later, like yesterday, it gets to the point. In the end u gotta have to make a decision, however this may look like.

    Thanks for the info guys! It's always nice to see the analysis.
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  20. 04-21-13 12:55 PM #650
    Grinder12000
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    I do like the parlay idea and will follow your lead. Good idea.
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  21. 04-21-13 01:48 PM #651
    knugen
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    2 runs for yanks cause of walks. Ridiculous
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  22. 04-21-13 03:38 PM #652
    dalogester
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    Jays did it, phew.
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  23. 04-22-13 11:20 AM #653
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post


    21.04.2013

    S3

    (C Bet) NYY fade: Toronto 1,84 1,19u | Toronto 2,00 2,19u | Toronto 1,709 6,178u
    (B Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u

    P1

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u

    P2

    (A Bet) D.Fister: Detroit 1,99 1,01u
    records:
    S1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    S2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    S3: W 35 | L 1 (-1,503 units)
    P1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    P2: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
    P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


    pending:
    - P2 Masterson, B Bet on next start
    - P1 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
    - P2 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
    - P1 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
    - P2 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
    - P1 D.Fister, B Bet on next start
    - P2 D.Fister, B Bet on next start
    - S3 CHW, C Bet on 22.04.2013



    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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  24. 04-22-13 11:54 AM #654
    Stifler
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    22.04.2013

    S1

    (A Bet) Pit fade: Phillies 2,02 0,98u

    S3

    (C Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u

    P2

    (B Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u | Cleveland - waiting on line movement


    potential plays:
    - S3 Pit fade, if line +100 or more
    - S3 Tor fade, if line +100 or more
    - S3 Tex fade, if line +100 or more
    - S3 SD, if line <+100


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
    Points Awarded:

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  25. 04-22-13 12:11 PM #655
    Grinder12000
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    Gotta root for The Sox - My brain still cramps at how to cancel out each game so I only bet a little on one team.
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  26. 04-22-13 02:24 PM #656
    DollarBill10
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    So does/can anyone provide insight in how they play games when we are on both sides?

    Thanks.
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  27. 04-22-13 02:24 PM #657
    tommpae
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    when do we decide if the potenial plays are plays or not?...have to go sleep soon.
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  28. 04-22-13 03:08 PM #658
    DollarBill10
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    Stifler usually waits until closer to game time.
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  29. 04-22-13 04:25 PM #659
    Stifler
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    - S3 Tor fade added.

    22.04.2013

    S1

    (A Bet) Pit fade: Phillies 2,02 0,98u

    S3

    (C Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u
    (A Bet) Tor fade: Baltimore 1,84 1,19u

    P2

    (B Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u | Cleveland - waiting on line movement



    potential plays:
    - S3 Pit fade, if line +100 or more
    - S3 Tex fade, if line +100 or more
    - S3 SD, if line <+100



    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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  30. 04-22-13 04:37 PM #660
    Grinder12000
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    So does/can anyone provide insight in how they play games when we are on both sides?
    That has been my question. NBA and NHL were easy - I'm still working on a good simple math solution.

    Here is one solution for Americans

    -108 = (100/1.09)=.0.925
    -105 = (100/1.05)=0.9523


    Whitesox -108 4.32u to win 4.00u
    Cleveland -105 2.625u to win 2.50u

    Play it as is
    Sox win (+4.00u - 2.50u)= +1.50 units
    Cleveland wins (+2.625 - 4.32)= -1.695units

    But you can do this
    Subtract what you need to win 4.00 - 2.50 = 1.5u
    Multiple that 1.5 *0.925 = 1.62u

    So now you have one bet 1.62u to win 1.50u on the Sox

    Sox win (+1.5 - 0)= +1.50
    Cleveland wins (0 - 1.62)= -1.62 Instead of losing 1.695 you lose 1.62

    Not that much if you are betting $1 but betting $100 it can add up.

    There HAS to be an easier way
    Last edited by Grinder12000; 04-22-13 at 05:27 PM.
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  31. 04-22-13 05:31 PM #661
    Stifler
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    - S3 Tex fade & Cleveland line added

    22.04.2013

    S1

    (A Bet) Pit fade: Phillies 2,02 0,98u

    S3

    (C Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u
    (A Bet) Tor fade: Baltimore 1,84 1,19u
    (A Bet) Tex fade: LA Angels 1,917 1,09u

    P2

    (B Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u | Cleveland 1,87 2,678u



    potential plays:
    - S3 Pit fade, if line +100 or more
    - S3 SD, if line <+100



    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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  32. 04-22-13 08:24 PM #662
    Shooter73
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    What I don't like about betting the Angels today is they used up their bullpen yesterday. Kinda hard to see Blanton going too deep either.
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  33. 04-22-13 09:32 PM #663
    theanswer03k
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    White sox bullpen...
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  34. 04-23-13 02:12 AM #664
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post
    22.04.2013

    S1

    (A Bet) Pit fade: Phillies 2,02 0,98u

    S3

    (C Bet) CHW: White Sox 1,625 1,60u | White Sox 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u
    (A Bet) Tor fade: Baltimore 1,84 1,19u
    (A Bet) Tex fade: LA Angels 1,917 1,09u

    P2

    (B Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u | Cleveland 1,87 2,678u

    records:
    S1: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
    S2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    S3: W 36 | L 1 (-0,503 units)
    P1: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    P2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


    pending:
    - P1 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
    - P2 T.Hudson, B Bet on next start
    - P1 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
    - P2 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
    - P1 D.Fister, B Bet on next start
    - P2 D.Fister, B Bet on next start
    - S3 CHW, D Bet on 23.04.2013
    - S3 Tex fade, B Bet on 23.04.2013


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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  35. 04-23-13 03:16 AM #665
    Stifler
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    23.04.2013

    S2
    (A Bet) LAA: LA Angels- waiting on line movement

    S3

    (D Bet) CHW: WS 1,625 1,60u | WS 1,68 3,824u| White Sox 2,01 6,36u | White Sox 1,855 14,952u
    (B Bet) Tex fade: LA Angels 1,917 1,09u | LA Angels - waiting on line movement
    (A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,571 1,75u


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
    Points Awarded:

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