1. 04-10-13 05:38 PM #281
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scooby525 View Post
    Sorry guys don't know if you guys see my post but just wondering why did we fade Pittsburgh and go with Arizona
    its S2

    they had a 3 game losing streak on the road, the streak was broken and we contunie playing the streak. Means we play Pittsburgh to lose on the road. So play is/was on Arizona.

    On a sidenote Pittsburgh losing streaks are also S1 plays, we do skip 2 plays after the streak was broken and play to fade them right after those 2 games. So we will also have a S1 Pit fade starting on 22.04.2013, when they are going to play their next game on the road.
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  2. 04-10-13 06:34 PM #282
    2178ice
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    So are the angels the start to a new chase???? I am trying to tail your picks Stifler, still A little confused! Thanks man
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  3. 04-10-13 07:18 PM #283
    Grinder12000
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    Hey stiffler. Was there any logic behind the skipping 2 games on S1s? Not doubting just curious what was going through your mind.
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  4. 04-10-13 09:07 PM #284
    zonedog
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post
    its S2
    On a sidenote Pittsburgh losing streaks are also S1 plays, we do skip 2 plays after the streak was broken and play to fade them right after those 2 games. So we will also have a S1 Pit fade starting on 22.04.2013, when they are going to play their next game on the road.
    Stifler,

    I am confused. Why wasn't today's Pit's game ALSO an S1 Pit's fade. They lost 3 games in a row and then won two after that and then today they had another game. All were on the road. Will appreciate your explanation.
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  5. 04-10-13 09:41 PM #285
    Ceebizcut
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    Hey Stifler
    Just wanted to say thanks
    The systems really appreciated
    Ill be tailing you all year
    Tailed you a bit in the NBA too
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  6. 04-10-13 10:13 PM #286
    samrock67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ceebizcut View Post
    Hey Stifler
    Just wanted to say thanks
    The systems really appreciated
    Ill be tailing you all year
    Tailed you a bit in the NBA too
    This

    +1
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  7. 04-11-13 01:39 AM #287
    Lakey
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    Quote Originally Posted by zonedog View Post
    Stifler,

    I am confused. Why wasn't today's Pit's game ALSO an S1 Pit's fade. They lost 3 games in a row and then won two after that and then today they had another game. All were on the road. Will appreciate your explanation.
    The first win broke the streak. You then skip 2 more games before starting the chase.
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  8. 04-11-13 03:16 AM #288
    abzflabz
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    Im skipping the angels hate this shit team
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  9. 04-11-13 07:29 AM #289
    ExodusNZ
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    Hi

    Just so I have this correct for tomorrow.

    Game 3 - Risking roughly 8 to 9 units? (which is 5 to 6 units for game 1 and 2 + 8 to 9 units) ?

    COME ON LAA!
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  10. 04-11-13 07:56 AM #290
    Grinder12000
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    Im skipping the angels hate this shit team
    At least you are not letting your emotions get in the way. That is always the downfall to most sports wagerers.

    Actually more like a risk of 7.8 units for game 3 - not even a lot considering what is going on in the NHL chase LOL
    Last edited by Grinder12000; 04-11-13 at 08:12 AM.
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  11. 04-11-13 08:10 AM #291
    abzflabz
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    Is it just the angels game today? Might play them i need action
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  12. 04-11-13 08:24 AM #292
    w@lt
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    Quote Originally Posted by abzflabz View Post
    Im skipping the angels hate this shit team
    Good luck with a chase system if you can't even handle 2 loses by a team.
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  13. 04-11-13 10:38 AM #293
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grinder12000 View Post
    Hey stiffler. Was there any logic behind the skipping 2 games on S1s? Not doubting just curious what was going through your mind.
    actually this idea came from someone called cisco...(dunno exactly). He had a spreadsheet with all of his plays here on sbr a few years ago. He pretty much said some wise words i kept in mind: When it comes to mlb betting, stop thinking logical. He posted the system with 2 games skipping, but he played alot more teams (or all teams, dunno anymore). I just went through the backtest of all teams and filtered out the best looking teams.
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  14. 04-11-13 10:39 AM #294
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post

    10.04.2013

    S2

    (B Bet) Pit fade: Arizona 1,719 1,39u | Arizona 1,602 3,97u

    S3

    (B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,654 1,53u | LA Angels 1,80 3,163u
    records:
    S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
    S2: W 1 | L 0 (+ 1,00 units)
    S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
    P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
    P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
    P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


    pending:
    - S3 LAA, C Bet on 11.04.2013



    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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  15. 04-11-13 10:40 AM #295
    zonedog
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakey View Post
    The first win broke the streak. You then skip 2 more games before starting the chase.

    Got it. Thanks!
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  16. 04-11-13 10:49 AM #296
    cards2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post
    records:
    S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
    S2: W 1 | L 0 (+ 1,00 units)
    S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
    P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
    P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
    P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


    pending:
    - S3 LAA, C Bet on 11.04.2013



    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
    dont forget the tx FADE today with SEA

    GL
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  17. 04-11-13 11:26 AM #297
    Stifler
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    11.04.2013

    S3

    (C Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,654 1,53u | LA Angels 1,80 3,163u | LA Angels 1,787 7,234u
    (A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle 1,649 1,54u


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
    Points Awarded:

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    ColdBeerHere gave Stifler 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    aufordboy gave Stifler 25 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  18. 04-11-13 12:00 PM #298
    Huego
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    gl tonight man, lets go angels!
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  19. 04-11-13 02:00 PM #299
    sportscreep1
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    Really need the Angels tonight! Come on, put that $125 million payroll to use, 2 wins? Really? Have Angels in On3's system as well for a (c) bet....
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  20. 04-11-13 02:44 PM #300
    eroger92
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    Angels looking real shitty so far. I'm from So Cal. Their pitching sucks, they are hitting .100 something with RISP. They are not fundamentally sound. Their bullpen sucks. Mike Scioscia needs to go. Not sure if I am going to play this C bet.
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  21. 04-11-13 04:23 PM #301
    abzflabz
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    Quote Originally Posted by w@lt View Post
    Good luck with a chase system if you can't even handle 2 loses by a team.
    Its not the loses im worried about, its backing the angels to win that worries me. They remind me of the current lakers
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  22. 04-11-13 04:42 PM #302
    Grinder12000
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    I'm playing 3 chase systems at the moment in 3 sports so im pretty numb to these small wagers at the moment. I feel like a battle tested veteran with a few 30 unit wagers under my belt laughing at the rookies. :-)

    what we really need is for a win NEXT game.
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  23. 04-11-13 05:00 PM #303
    AceofSP2107
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    This is why it's also about money management , if you see Oak is on a streak stay away from the chase and wait to the next play , you can labby ,lower your wager to win a half unit . How ever it takes , if Angles win then so be it ,,. I respect stif for this system and all put into it
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  24. 04-11-13 10:45 PM #304
    J.M. Disciple
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  25. 04-11-13 11:21 PM #305
    knugen
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    Hmm angels not looking good
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  26. 04-12-13 10:11 AM #306
    Grinder12000
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    Well, I guess we don't get the good lines tonight :-)
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  27. 04-12-13 10:27 AM #307
    kosti
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    I locked in to angels at -180 last night....moved to -195 now. No idea what else is a play
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  28. 04-12-13 10:29 AM #308
    HowardRoark
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    Quote Originally Posted by kosti View Post
    I locked in to angels at -180 last night....moved to -195 now. No idea what else is a play
    smart.
    Seattle B bet is also a play tonight
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  29. 04-12-13 10:31 AM #309
    knugen
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    and hopefully some new series.. excited to see wgat stiffmeister comes up with
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  30. 04-12-13 11:11 AM #310
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post
    11.04.2013

    S3

    (C Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,654 1,53u | LA Angels 1,80 3,163u | LA Angels 1,787 7,234u
    (A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle 1,649 1,54u
    records:
    S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
    S2: W 1 | L 0 (+ 1,00 units)
    S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
    P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
    P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
    P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


    pending:
    - S3 LAA, D Bet on 12.04.2013
    - S3 Tex fade, B Bet on 12.04.2013


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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  31. 04-12-13 11:13 AM #311
    DocZ
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    Is Seattle a bet even if they are not favored?
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  32. 04-12-13 11:24 AM #312
    CheeseHead
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocZ View Post
    Is Seattle a bet even if they are not favored?
    Yes I'm pretty sure, but do we risk the amount we lost on the A bet plus 1 unit again or now just the A bet amount lost plus the amount it would take to be ahead 1 unit since we are getting plus odds?
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  33. 04-12-13 11:35 AM #313
    DocZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by CheeseHead View Post
    Yes I'm pretty sure, but do we risk the amount we lost on the A bet plus 1 unit again or now just the A bet amount lost plus the amount it would take to be ahead 1 unit since we are getting plus odds?
    I would guess, if we are playing with plus odds, we would bet the amount that gets us to "+1" units total for the lost A bet and the new B bet.
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  34. 04-12-13 11:56 AM #314
    Grinder12000
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    Yes - just takes a little bit more math - bet what will get on one unit in the end!

    LAA - 65.5% chance of winning GULP!!

    Look at it this way Using -150, -134, -142, -190 as lines (sorry Europeans) - If LAA losses tonight it will be a 1 out of 47.6 chance in a four game chase. SO - there is a 2.4% chance of LAA losing tonight :-) Confidence is high (along with my balls)
    Last edited by Grinder12000; 04-12-13 at 12:11 PM.
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  35. 04-12-13 11:57 AM #315
    Stifler
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    12.04.2013

    S3

    (D Bet) LAA: LAA 1,654 1,53u | LAA 1,80 3,163u | LAA 1,787 7,234u | LAA 1,526 24,576u
    (B Bet) Tex fade: Seattle 1,649 1,54u | Seattle 2,28 1,984u
    (A Bet) NYY: NY Yankees 1,649 1,54u


    potential plays:
    - S3 Pit, if line <+100
    - S3 Det if line +100 or more
    - S3 Oak, if line <+100


    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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