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Mr Crumbs Leans for 7/3/09
For today's baseball action I like the following games. I was on a crumb hunt last night and this morning
Dodgers/Padres under 7 +105
Texas+115
Seattle+107
Pirates/Fish under 8.5 +105 (Only 35% of bettors are playing it)
* Cubs were removed as I realized that there was certain system play that I had overlooked, but I am on it and pounding the -1.5 line on that play
Last edited by cocknocker; 07-03-09 at 10:25 AM.
Originally Posted by cocknocker
Hey CK.......I've been feelin' your pain with this reliever heartburn bro.
I have a question....and please don't take this the wrong way (like I'm tryin' to tell you how to do your thang).....but looking back over the detailed notes you created for us before the baseball season began. Why are you not playing more 1st 5 on these games that you are capping correctly? It happens to all of us sometimes where we just cant see the fly on our nose and I'm just attempting to help you out just as you have helped us all out immensely. Is my thinking way off? Anyway.....I will continue to tail you because you are straight up money even on your "off" weeks. Much love and positivity.....peace out.
I'm on the Cubs as well Ck in parlay w/ Spankees, ML both ways
TLDK
what happend to your bling bling system for baseball ? ... I recall you said something like you need 1/3 of the season as data ?... I was just wondering how you are doing ??
GL
what is astounding is greinke has pitched 115.1 innings, 114 k's and only 3 hr's given up. now that my friends is dominance.
minnesota @ the series price might be a good buy. french making his starting debut for detroit probably will stretch the bullpen early in the series.
Hey Peter.......life has me kinda chasing my tail right now, so I haven't been able to do the necessary research for that system yet. Hopefully I can get to it soon....
So you will be playing the Royals today then? I was thinking about playing that one as well, but a buddy talked me out of it.....
How is your recovery going btw??? Hope you're well.
I was thinking of going against Greinke today. Granted he is a beast on the mound but the Royals can NOT hit lately. Danks is no one to shake a stick at either.
solobass, I'm also curious how you are doing. Hows the recovery going?
recovery is going great, i talk through typing on my computer and adding my usual profanity to a robot voice has produced some hilarious moments. i have been getting down with rubik's cube (i was born in 1975....) for additional mental exercise besides the regular math regimen. i am almost done with the games and will post my picks in about 20 mins or so. now that i have a lot of current season data my model is getting better and better all the time. i was weighting defensive efficiency too high and not rewarding consistent offensive production enough. my pitcher formula though is top notch and i will not touch that all year. thanks for the well wishes!
glad to hear everything is going well! can't wait to see your picks for today!
wow another standout stat and a proverbial dead canary in the coal mine....phils winning 37% of home games. they are the only team (+9) in their division with more runs scored than given up though. each of the teams in the NL east are so deeply flawed, i think it is there for either atlanta or florida for the taking.
so.....let's get to it. what does my formula do? it gives me a majority of winners on most days. it was built to cherry pick the best opportunities but ended up slightly different. yesterday i was 6-3 (i know it does not count here though i did not post picks....) i will post all the picks here for a week and we will see where we are after that. do i bet on every game? almost. i lay off really heavy odds and parlay some heavier favorites.
fun fact of the day......we have 3 hernandez's on the mound today the best being king felix @ fenway.
National League winners
CHC -170 (odds about right on this one)
PIT +135
WAS +110 (i know i know....)
NYM +135
STL -120
COL -130
SF -115
American League winners
NYY (close one formula wise though....odds way to high for the yanks)-182
CLE -125
SEA -103 (the power matchup of the day, both teams have high scores)
TB -138
KC -145
MIN -162
LAA -150
best of luck today!
oh yeah and the
LAD whatever the odds are.
hey I hope you do better soon... bc it sounded promising...
GL my friend...
(2x) yankees -1.5/+105 burnett has a .44/.98 in his last 3 with 26k's in 20 inn. pure dominance and in a complete groove right now vs the ice cold bats of toronto. tallet has a 1.52 whip last 3.
Take the over in the Dodgers/Padres! ManRam is back and both teams have crazy historical numbers against their opposing pitchers. Even though both of these teams are slumping, the Dodgers in particular are more than overdue for a correction and they have great numbers against Gaudin. They'll be riding a Manny high. Simulating this game gives 8 runs by the 6th inning alone.
http://sportsinsights.com/overnight-injury-report.aspx
TB ML -135 (big)
MIN RL +125 (small)
SEA/BOS under 9 -118 (small)
GL!
King Felix- +106
John Danks +141
happy 3rd of July all! time to start drinking peace!
Anyone liking the Marlins today?
Manny is not to be counted on yet. Therefore his production would be iffy tonight to say the least. I'm rolling with the under
Yesh! It's done! I played it as a -1.5 though since the Pirates aren't hitting the ball well right now
Yeah I was debating on ml or rl myself. Dont like the -161 but not a big fan of the 1 run w resulting in a L.
Cant pay the -161 so Rl it is. Lets go Fish
yes sir arod!
(3x) cards -120 - bailey has proven nothing at this level, and it looks more and more like TINSTAAPP was correct when looking at this overhyped righthander. piniero has a 1.59/.71 last 3 and a 2.97/1.12 career vs the reds. bailey has a 14.7/3.13 in 2 career starts vs the cards.
(3x) under dodgers 7.5 (A5)
(1x) padres +1.5/-140 (A2)
(2x) astros +100 - heavy/consistent movement says houston is the play.
(2x) under redsox 8.5 - king felix has a whip of .78 in his last 3 - wakefield a 1.07.
(2x) under kc 7.5 - greinke has a whip of 1.19 in his last 3 - danks a .85.
Paulino -155
just up from the minors....are ya kinnding me....gotta play the Mets
Atlanta
Florida
Boston
Chi. White Sox
i remember lopez from the orioles.....he hasnt pitched since 2007.
paulino -155?
SEA ML
felix is on fire, and the mariners should have a little carryover from the win in new york.
HOU ML
giants dropped their last two, houston won their last 2 so with a little reverse linemovement, i've got to take the stros to get it done here.
KC/CHW under 7
that line opened at 7.5 @ -130. Now that it's down to 7 i can get it at even money so it's time to drop 2 units on it.
i also have a small parlay on LA, Tampa, and Minny on the moneylines.
ya i remember rodrigo lopez. He is too capable of gemming for me to touch that game. Likewise, he could get shelled, line movements on the moneylines and the O/U indicate the books think he might pitch well.
added play:
(2x) braves -130 - braves are streaking at W4, and the nats the other way at L3. kawakami has a 2.57/1.07 last 3 - detwiller a 5.50/1.61. like the late movement as well.
scumbag idiot fan grabbed the 3rd out with his hat when youkilis could have made the play. 3 runs followed and im sure he'll be watching his back when he leaves the stadium tonight. jackass was even laughing after the rbi double. hopefully he gets jumped
You took Wakefield tonight, Dex?
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