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My first thought looking at tomorrow's card is maybe ump based unders in Cincy and KC but SPs are suspect.Originally Posted by 2daBank
i was just telling my brother it seems like he hasnt done shit for quite a while
man im starting to look at 2marros card and tb seems awful damn appealing at 1st glance, havnt actually did any work yet just initial thought..
Bailey so hard to figure out, i generally have decent feel for him but his latest slide is kinda baffling to me, kid has lights out stuff but so all over the place and it worse at home...admittedly im still prob not up to full speed and had to do some research on harvey real quick as i didnt even know who the hel l he was (lol), seems like the kid has some nasty swing and miss stuff for sure, could be hard adjustment for cincy going from hitting the wiffle ball to this, not sure i luv a young kid in that park but starting to gain interest in playing the muts, todays line pretty much affirms my belief dickey is seriously overvalued..
not sure if Loshe is being disrespected here or Cahill is getting respect? i know metrics hate my guy Loshe and that will never change no matter how great he pitches... for the mean time anyways cards seem to have found a fix for their bridge guy in Mujica and as long as bitch boy jamie garcia is ok (expected to start sunday) kelly moving to pen should keep us from having to see that much of Salas (i really hope so anyway)...far as today goes you know im not a fan of cards and sweeps but lots of things i used to find true about this team havnt held true under the Matheny regime, good chance of some weather issues as storms expected to roll thru sometime this afternoon so prob just a pass but do find it hard to pass on loshe at this number at home..
forgot yadi left gm yesterday with back tightness, like cruz and not enough into metrics to know yadi's WAR but id assume it is good... big drop off defensively and offensively, just yadi's ability to call a gm is a huge deal as waino was shaking cruz off like crazy last night.....still lean stl and under is again appealing to me but again possible weather concerns, should be off work well before start of gm so will come back to this one later...
Wednesday 8.15.2012 final card
2* Phillies/Marlins under 7 (+100) - LOSER
2* Nationals ML (-121) - WINNER
2* Parlay: Braves ML + Cardinals ML (+140) - WINNER
2* A's/Royals over 8' (-116) - LOSER
2-2 +0.48u
280-262-14 +29.98u season to date
Thursday 8.16.2012
3* Rays ML (-119)
yeah, other than Joyce behind the plate, not sure there's much to love about the under here. playing under with Bailey at home is not for the meek.
once i had time to cap your Rays lean, like it a lot. gotta love Price vs Haren at that price.
fangraphs has Yadi with a WAR of 4.7. will check back in for your thoughts on this one later since it sounds like you'll be back before game.
yea glad i grabbed it early as feel smart atm....of coarse it seems the more i beat closer by the worse the play turns out, lol
damn baseball reference is screwing me for some reason they have no 1st inning numbers listed for Baileyin fact his whole inning by inning splits are all screwed up as i have a hard time believing that he has piched more gms in the 3rd inning than 2nd??? wtf they my go to source and im trying to determine validity of a ff play of some kind....
you have another site for inning by inning numbers?
muts pen prob a bigger concern to me than bailey for the under honestly, that why i was trying to get a look at his inning by inning numbers...
i do not, sorry.yea glad i grabbed it early as feel smart atm....of coarse it seems the more i beat closer by the worse the play turns out, lol
damn baseball reference is screwing me for some reason they have no 1st inning numbers listed for Bailey
you have another site for inning by inning numbers?
adding
2* Pirates ML (-132)
2* Red Sox -1 (-102)
Thursday 8.16.2012 updated card
3* Rays ML (-119)
2* Pirates ML (-132)
2* Red Sox -1 (-102)
also lean Jays and OAK/KC under, may add later this afternoon. BOL to all today.
dbags/cards un or cards didnt make your card? damn bro i thought you had faith in me.....lol
tb was the easiest bet ive saw at open in some time,,,no idea why so many thought price was overvalued? how can one of best if not best in the gm is less than -110 and ppl say tb only fav based off his name? seriously? the name getting overvalued was clearly halo's... not to mention rays just got a perfecto tossed on them, perfect spot for a ace to make things right against harens overrated ass.....speaking of this series im incredably tempted in weaver as -160ish seems kinda short for him but just 1st glance gotta do a little work and get over my hatred of laa...
1st thought on pit/stl is ov 8.5...just get the feeling pit makes this a more offensive series...furcal has been amazing since getting that injection earlier this week, cards are leathal with him getting on from the 8 spot as that turn around tough to deal with, jay, craig, holliday with men on base usually equals good inning..
That's funny man. That Under miss was about as bad as it gets. Guy on 3rd, two outs, routine ground ball hit to Reds Shortstop and he bobbles it and run scores to blow the Under. I bought it up to 9 so I can still get a push but I'm relying on the Muts pen to get 3 outs without giving up a run. First pitch to start the inning... Booooom! Center cut meatball down Broadway that ends up in the seats. The Muts pen. It just doesn't get worse.
yea honestly if you looking at a under or playing muts you almost have to look at 1st 5 long and hard (actually felt like only losing 8 cents for ff yesterday was a steal, i mean it didnt matter but only 8 cents to eliminate terrrible pen vs cincy very good pen?) , prob not any worse but brew crew pen and rox pen both also give up runs in bunches most nights it seems...
fired on dbags-1.5...couple things i could nit pick about it but wasnt really enough to get me off playing them off big W and facing a lefty..
Thursday 8.16.2012 final card
3* Rays ML (-119) - WINNER
2* Pirates ML (-132) - WINNER
2* Red Sox -1 (-102) - WINNER
3-0 +7u
sweep em up. eat it, Tony at 5Dimes.
283-262-14 +36.98u
sorry dude! i intended to fit in more capping later in the day, but ended up going out right at 5 and never looked back. great night. haven't looked at anything yet, but will check out your leans first when i do, hopefully early afternoon.
thanks! all told, my initial five leans from first thing in the morning went 5-0. even i can't fk that up. back later today, Madison.
my card is small, not many leans even...
played dbags as mentioned..
lean stl or over, total moving against my lean but that been the case on a few stl gms lately and starting to like it...lol
laa or under....prob screwing myself not just playing under now....
ive wasted my whole morning, should be half way done with work i gotta do by now, lol....time to go, ill try and get back and see your thoughts before gm times...
cool, i'm out until later too. will be booking any plays for tonight between 2-5 EST most likely. have a good one dude.
Nice day Biff, like the new look.
Swoop in, make a few kills, fly away. (Had too much coffee this morning)
Friday 8.17.2012
2* Diamondbacks RL (-115)
2* White Sox RL (+110)
thanks, bandit.
yeah, time is at a premium right now so trying to avoid the temptation of hanging around posting throughout the day, too distracting. i could discuss games all day long, too bad i don't get paid to do that.
also like Tribe/A's under but want to wait for ump assignments.
....
Last edited by BiffTFinancial; 08-17-12 at 03:09 PM.
adding
2* Red Sox/Yankees over 9' (+100)
8.17.2012 updated card
2* Red Sox/Yankees over 9' (+100)
2* Diamondbacks RL (-115)
2* White Sox RL (+110)
Bank, how you like Cards tonight? thinking about playing them -1 RL (-103). Rats are cold and McDonald sucks, while Westbrook has been solid. Yadi is out though so that hurts.
just got in door, havnt seen lineup, i thought 4sure yadi would play, that sux....
honestly i would go for broke and lay the 1.5, hell i might play stl-2.5...cards are atrocious in 1 run gms and not much better in 2 run gms, where as buccos pretty much the opposite, ive come to realization cards are serious front runners this yr, if things are going good then watch out they can and will pile it on anyone, however they are just not clutch if the gm is tight late , a huge majority of their hrs have come in low leverage situations i.e. early in gm or after they all ready have a lead as where again pit is the opposite with a ton of their hrs coming in high leverage situations, late innings close gm (actually got this stat from Bernie Miklaz on radio today so wont take credit for it)....i couldnt tell you why it is like this, possibly stl presses when they are trailing or in a tight gm late? fukk if i know, all i know is that if cards win it prob be because westy is good early and the bats smack mcdonald around as they cruise to victory, cards run differential is so sick you would think they were a 100 win team not some scrubs fighting for last playoff spot (especially considering how good the starting pitching has been most the year)..i gotta believe with furcal feeling well and playing like it which is big for them that cards man up and remind bucs of their place in society...just no sense in laying any juice seeing how maybe 16 of cards wins all year have been by 2 or less (something stupid like that)..
Pirates are cold but McDonald has good numbers against the Cards. Tough one. I like the Nats a lot today. Johan Santana getting touched since coming off DL. Detwiller 2-1 with a 1.45 ERA. Thrown 13 consecutive shut out innings against Muts. Santana won't go deep just coming off dl so the Muts pen will be in full effect tonight. Plus Wash just owns the Mets.
he hasnt even faced cards this season i dont think, from what i recall the few times he did face them last year he wasnt exactly lights out... more importantly the dudes arm is bout to fall off and im just not sure a couple extra days off is gonna fix that, cards will make him work, gun to my head i think he will struggle to get thru 5 honestly...
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