EP36's: Chase For 60

EaglesPhan36 · 06-17-09, 11:37 AM

Play #115: Angels/Giants OVER 7.5 (-105)
Palmer vs. Lincecum. Weather forecast first off is calling for the wind to be blowing out at a decent clip (10-13 mph). Palmer's road starts have been much more of an adventure than his home starts. In 3 roadies, Palmer has given up 10 ER in 16 IP. All of those games found double digit totals by the end. Lincecum at home has been solid as expected, 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA. Of his 6 home starts, 3 OVERs/3 UNDERs. Of his 6 day starts, 4 OVERs/2 UNDERs. Both the home & day start splits are averaging just over 8 runs per game. The Angels offense has rolled up 17 runs in the first two games of this series and even though I expect Lincecum will keep them in-check, they should have enough confidence to scratch a couple runs across. With Palmer giving up at least 4 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts + the Angels always shaky bullpen, so long as the Giants get to him early and KO him by the 5th or 6th ... this should have a decent shot.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-17-09, 12:49 PM

Play #116: Grand Salami UNDER 142.5 (-110)
Trying the experiment again. We'll see if the weather allows it or not. My book again voids this bet if any of the games fail to go 9 innings. The totals add up to 138. Ballpark #s as posted yesterday per host stadium work out to 143.5. My estimated OVER/UNDER/PUSH for today is 4/7/4.

Highest scoring host stadiums again are: Yankees, Rockies, Phillies, Twins, Red Sox, Rangers. All average 10+ runs per game. Today, I've got them ranked as a NYY(PUSH 11), Rockies (OVER 9.5), Phillies (OVER 10.5), Twins (PUSH 9), Red Sox (OVER 10.5) & Rangers (UNDER 11).

Lowest scoring host stadiums: Padres (7.6), Cardinals (8.5), Giants (8.2), Dodgers (8.3), Cubs (8.6), Royals (9.2), Reds (9.4). I've got 5 of those playing below their averages and Padres playing at 8. Giants playing OVER 7.5.

Projected totals for the Highest/Lowest scoring parks today about 121. That leaves 21 runs for MIL/CLE & NYM/BAL. I have both playing slightly under. I've got the Salami hitting 138-140 or less.

Key Games: MIL/CLE, TOR/PHI, FLA/BOS, DET/STL, HOU/TEX. If 3 of 5 get UNDER, should make things easier I believe.

Again this is experimental, so I wouldn't advise playing it unless on your own you agree with the assessment.

ploben · 06-17-09, 02:46 PM

Just wanted to drop in and make a possitive comment on the work you are doing here. Saw this thread a while back and never really read it but I have been pouring through it the past 2 days and I think your 60% will be met.

Keep it up

EaglesPhan36 · 06-18-09, 02:08 PM

Play #117: Rays/Rockies Runs+Hits+Errors OVER 28.5 (-115)
Garza vs. Jimenez. Garza has been pretty stellar just about everywhere. His road record is 1-2 with a 3.82 ERA. Day #s also solid at 3.88 ERA. His road starts are a perfect 5 for 5 on UNDERs. Meanwhile, the polar opposite is Ubaldo Jimenez. He's 3-2 with a 4.28 ERA at home, but all 5 of his starts have gone OVER. His day starts are worse with a 5.34 ERA, 4 of 5 hitting OVER. So it's a clash of one of the top UNDER guys against one of the better OVER guys. Considering all of Jimenez's Coors Field starts have hit double digits regardless of who is doing the scoring, his team or the opposition, I'm inclined to side with the OVER here. Both teams are hitting .280 or above vs. righties in their last 10. COL has scored 4 or more runs in 9 of their last 10, while TB has scored 4 or more in 6 of 7. Wind is blowing out toward right/right center at about 11 mph. Instead of the total, I'll side with the Runs+Hits+Errors combo here as both team are capable of putting up double digit hits. I think the run total falls somewhere between 8-10, so hopefully all that gets it done.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-18-09, 04:00 PM

Play #118: [NCAA] North Carolina +140
This play is two fold for me. #1, I think it's a good match-up and time for UNC to be playing Arizona State. #2, it's a hedge against my one unit ASU future to win the CWS. Both teams will look to their #3 starters tonight. UNC tossing righty Matt Harvey and ASU going with righty Seth Blair. The Tar Heels left handed lineup should be licking their chops at the thought of not going against lefty Josh Spence who shut the Heels down when these two teams met earlier in Omaha. Blair got in some work against Texas the other night, but just 10 pitches. He's 7-2 with a 3.39 ERA on the season. Harvey hasn't pitched since May 29 and is 7-2 with a 5.35 ERA. Psychologically, the big question is how does Arizona State respond? How is this team after Texas KO'ed their ace and then scored 10 unanswered to knock the Sun Devils into the elimination game tonight? ASU's best recipe would be to jump on UNC early and re-establish their confidence. Meanwhile, the Heels can really test the will of the Sun Devils if they do the same. The Sun Devils may be on the verge of packing it in and just need that "push" over the edge to collapse. From an offensive stand point, I think the Heels have the advantage here as their bats began to roll against Southern Miss (CWS-tying record 23 hits). ASU's bullpen also is tired after having to pitch plenty in the last two games. Closer Mitchell Lambson has gone 3 IP in each game, so even if he does get in, UNC could find the time ripe to pluck some runs from the closer. This UNC squad has been in this position already once in the tournament, so they know how to handle the pressure. The question clearly is how will ASU respond?

EaglesPhan36 · 06-18-09, 06:05 PM

ASU went with the lefty Spence on three days left. Already invested in UNC +140. Will be tougher, but still a good hedge for me at least.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-19-09, 12:32 PM

Play #119: Grand Salami UNDER 139 (-110)
Continuing to track this experiment. Today's host stadiums & their average runs per game total up at 140.5. Today's totals come out to 134.5. Today's highest run scoring stadiums: COL, PHI, FLA, MIN. Those are the only four stadiums serving as hosts that are averaging double figures. They average 42.7 rpg. Their totals today are 38. The OVER/UNDER/PUSH estimation for me today: 5/6/4. The experiment so far is that if the game totals favor the UNDER or OVER by 3 or more runs from the Salami total and the host stadiums runs per game show either the same or very little variance (1-3 runs) from the Grand Salami Total, I'm playing whatever the favor is. Today, it is the UNDER. I've got the totals running somewhere from 130-134. Key games to me: BOS, COL, FLA, DET & PHI. If 3 or more of those stay UNDER or PUSH, then I think this one has a shot.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-19-09, 12:51 PM

Play #120: [NCAA] LSU/Arkansas OVER 9.5 (-120)
#1, the start of this game is going to be delayed by rain. Radar shows a lot of showers around Omaha. Forecast looks like it will clear enough probably in 1-2 hours to start. LSU will bring on Anthony Ranaudo to pitch. He didn't last long in his CWS debut against Virginia, going 3.1 IP and giving up 2 ER. Control was a big issue as he walked four batters. Ranaudo gave up 5 ER in 6 IP against Arkansas in the regular season, so the Hogs have had some success and do know what he brings to the table. Arkansas will be missing SS Ben Tschepikow who got hit on the hand against Virginia and likely is done for the rest of the CWS. He was batting #2, so his bat will be missed. The Razorbacks will start, yes start their closer because of rest issues with their starts. Stephen Richards' longest outing this season was 3 IP back in the season opener. It's unlikely he'll be asked to do any more than that. Arkansas will have all their pitchers ready to go for a few innings each and that's like to be the strategy, mix & match. May not matter as LSU has scored 9 runs or higher in 5 of their 7 NCAA games in the post-season. Arkansas flirted with disaster so many times against Virginia, loading the bases on multiple occassions, but escaping. They won't be able to afford that luxury against a LSU team that seems primed to win and get to the Championship Series with a win today. Once the rain lifts, the wind could also become a factor if the weather dooshes are correct that it will shift from the Northerly flow currently to a S-SE flow which would mean the wind is blowing out toward left center I believe. Runs have been plentiful in Omaha this CWS. Of the 10 games played, just one has yielded less than 10 runs. I'll stick with the offense continuing!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-19-09, 05:03 PM

Play #121: [SERIES] Blue Jays -115 (Nationals)
You can thank the Nationals series won over the Yankees for the over value on them in this one and I will jump on it. I think without their wins over NY, this series would easily find the Jays around -170 or higher to win.

Pitching Match-Ups
G1: Tallet vs. Zimmerman
G2: Cecil vs. Detwiler
G3: Romero vs. Martis

Game 1 looks like a nice way to open for the Jays. Washington is only hitting .214 vs. lefties at home & they're just 3-7 in Zimmerman's starts this season, including losing his last 6 in a row. Remember too that the Nats hadn't won back-2-back games since May 9th before beating the Yankees two in a row. Game 2 is a bit of a toss-up. Cecil was horrid at Boston in his last start, but had been solid in his first 3. Tossing another lefty at Washington should tilt it in TOR's favor though. Detwiler hasn't been horrible, but WAS is 0-6 in his starts. If Game 3 is needed, Romero gives the Jays another lefty to throw at Washington. So three lefties against a team that has not faired well vs. lefties, advantage TOR. Couple that with the Jays having cooled off the red hot Phillies on the road with a three game sweep prior to this one starting and there's all the more reason to dig Toronto in this series.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-19-09, 05:46 PM

LSU rockin' it today, gets all 10 runs by themselves! Headed to the Championship Series and the future at +580 stays alive. Hoping ASU can get back at Texas tonight and force another game tomorrow. Think Blair will pitch for the Sun Devils today and they'll save Leake for tomorrow. Think it's all a psychological game for ASU at this point.

MexicanStallion · 06-19-09, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

LSU rockin' it today, gets all 10 runs by themselves! Headed to the Championship Series and the future at +580 stays alive. Hoping ASU can get back at Texas tonight and force another game tomorrow. Think Blair will pitch for the Sun Devils today and they'll save Leake for tomorrow. Think it's all a psychological game for ASU at this point.

"I got that Tweet that Arizona State coach Pat Murphy says Mike Leake has tendonitis and is out for the rest of the College World Series."

That is from a Reds beat writer. The Reds drafted Leake, so I would assume he will be out if ASU stays alive today. Just some information if that helps anything.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-19-09, 06:19 PM

I thought that might be the case too, because I read about the tendinitis talk. Sucks for them because that means their 2 best starters won't have an impact in that game.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-19-09, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Play #104: [NCAA] LSU to Win CWS (+580)
The Tigers sport the best offense in Omaha and have experience on their side having been to the CWS last season. The big X factor here for LSU is offensive consistency. Despite scoring 524 runs this season, there have been moments when the big hits did not look as if they would come. Against Southern, LSU trailed 2-1 before exploding late for a 10-2 win and they won a nail biter in the Regionals over Baylor 3-2. Still with Ranaudo & Coleman forming their 1-2 pitching punch and with more collective experience than the other contenders in their bracket (Fullerton,Virginia,Arkansas), LSU has a great shot to get to the Championship Series at a price.

Play #105: [NCAA] Arizona State to Win CWS (+480)
I think the 2nd bracket comes down to Arizona State or North Carolina. Southern Miss is a good story and I expect they will win a game before going home because of their prolific offense, but their pitching will get them in the end. Likewise, Texas has deficiences with the worst offense of the remaining 8 teams. Their solid pitching likely keeps them around for more than 2 games, but I think their hit or miss offense will have issues against ASU's top notch starters as well as Carolina's. ASU may have the best 1-2 tandem pitching with Stephen Leake (16-1, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Spence (9-1, 2.33 ERA). Their offense is steady and has scored 491 runs this season which is on par with every team not named LSU in Omaha. The big issue for ASU will be tight ballgames. They do not have a "lock down" close as they use Jordan Swaggerty and Mitchell Lambson to close out games. Still, if the starters pitch to their capabilities and the big bats of Kipnis and Ramirez continue to deliver, the Sun Devils should have a good shot to take a spot in the Championship Series.

Prophet!

ASU is gonna be hating themselves for a while with the way they blew these games to Texas. Good thing is I should be guaranteed a reasonable profit with the Championship Series with the LSU prop alive. Will probably not play a side in Game 1 unless the price is really nice on one or the other. Figure if Texas wins Game 1, then I hedge on them in Games 2 and 3 if necessary. Should be an awesome series.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-20-09, 04:27 PM

Play #122: Dodgers/Angels UNDER 9 (-110)
Dueling Weavers tonight. Jered has been ridiculous at home and against the Dodgers. At Anaheim, he's 5-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 6 UNDERs in 6 starts. He's 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. LAD. In 13 starts this season, the total has only topped 9 twice. 8 straight have fallen at 9 runs or UNDER. Jeff Weaver has been decent in 3 spot starts this season, going 5 IP in each and yielding 3 ER or less in all 3. 2 of the 3 also fell UNDER the total. The good news is of the two pitchers likely to last less innings, the Dodgers do have the superior bullpen. If Jered is his usual dominant self at home and Jeff can scrape through 5-6 IP without getting lit up, this should have a good chance to at least PUSH, if not win.

ZBOIZ · 06-20-09, 04:44 PM

LSU should roll over Texas and here's why. When they announced the field of 64 LSU felt raped. They cold heartly felt as if the NCAA disrespected there whole body of work this whole season. Even though they were SEC REGULAR SEASON CHAMPS and SEC Tournament champs they were given a #3 seed, and Texas was given the #1 seed were LSU thought for a fact thats were they would be. This is why this team has been playing like someone stepped on there shoes. They have something to prove to Texas and the NCAA!!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-20-09, 07:49 PM

F-ing Blue Jays. Seriously.

The_Kid · 06-20-09, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

F-ing Blue Jays. Seriously.

I'm thinking the exact same thing. I'm doubled up on yesterday's loss and now it looks like I'll be tripling up. If they get swept by the Nationals...

EaglesPhan36 · 06-21-09, 10:47 AM

Haven't looked yet but with the underwhelming offense in that series, the under might be smart today. Crappy week in pro baseball for me, needed more college games! Damn Gary Matthews, Jr. f-ed the under in that game last night in the bottom of the 9th. The beats this week have been piss poor.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-21-09, 11:45 AM

Play #123: Blue Jays/Nationals OVER 8.5 (-125)
Opposite day. 14 of the last 16 home games have gone UNDER in Washington. These two teams have combined for all of 11 runs in the first two games of the series. Martis has pitched three straight UNDERs for the Nats and has been better at home. Romero is another lefty going against the Nats who despise lefties to the tune of .226 at home. Wind is blowing N-NW at 16-17 mph which is left to right or slightly in from left (N). Seems like that would beat the balls down and keep them in, right? Well, when the wind speed is between 10-20 mph in this park, OVER is 5 of 6 this season and the games average over 12 runs.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-21-09, 01:25 PM

Stadium & wind don't lie. 5-2 in the 2nd.

The_Kid · 06-21-09, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Stadium & wind don't lie. 5-2 in the 2nd.

6-2 ballgame now. Why couldn't the Jays swing the bats like this earlier in the series?

EaglesPhan36 · 06-21-09, 01:37 PM

Yeah. First game especially, frickin 3 runs would have won.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-21-09, 02:48 PM

8 runs in the 1st 3 innings and nothing since. Probably gonna get boned still.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-21-09, 03:16 PM

This has been my week in pro baseball. When I don't need Washington to do anything, they F up my series bet and score runs. Today when I need someone to score one more stinking run, looks like nothing.

MexicanStallion · 06-21-09, 03:23 PM

Rios comes up big for you. Nice play on the over. Hopefully you tripled your bet for this last game to get back from those first two game losses.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-09, 12:11 AM

Got half of the series bet investment back on this one. Didn't touch a side. Had no trust in the Jays going into the day and didn't want to spend -140 to find out! Glad you got it!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-09, 04:37 PM

Play #124: [NCAA] LSU/Texas OVER 10 (-105)
The College World Series' Championship begins tonight. Louis Coleman gets the start for LSU & Chance Ruffin for Texas. Ruffin got roughed up for 4 ER in just 2 IP against Arizona State. He'll be looking for redemption, but finds a hot LSU lineup that has scored 32 runs in its' 3 CWS wins. Coleman was solid against Arkansas, allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP in LSU's 9-1 win earlier in Omaha. Texas has once again showed their uneven offense in running to the Championship series as they looked dead in the water against ASU before exploding for 10 runs. They scored 7 against Southern Miss in their opener and were held in check by ASU before getting two HRs late to win 4-3 in their last game. It's the pitching of UT vs. the hitting of LSU. This College World Series has seen the hitting win more often than not with 12 games to this point and 9 of those hitting at least a total of 10 runs. No side to play for me here as I'm letting my LSU future ride in Game 1 and see what sort of opportunity will be available in Game 2.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-22-09, 10:26 PM

1 step closer to cashing that LSU futures ticket! Great baseball game tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-23-09, 05:06 PM

Nothing official for me tonight kids. Been moving shit all day and haven't had a chance to really look at much for tonight. Riding my LSU future and hoping they finish it off tonight! May look at the late games once I am done here in about an hour. Moving blows!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-09, 05:39 PM

Play #125: [NCAA] Texas +130
Please understand this is a total hedge play for me as I have a one unit bet riding on LSU to win the CWS at +580. I do not endorse either side tonight as I think it is 50-50. Two quality pitchers. Two quality teams. Anyone's game, I'm just looking to get out with some cash. As a result, this is a 1.8 unit play. That way if LSU wins, I still make out with 4 units. If Texas wins, I get back my original investment on LSU and make 1.25 units on top of that. I love it when a plan comes together!

HoulihansTX · 06-24-09, 05:46 PM

Got Texas +125 on a parlay. Man them Texas boys gonna wreck LSU in this border war.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-09, 05:47 PM

Play #126: Phillies/Rays UNDER 9.5 (-115)
Blanton vs. Garza. Garza's last 6 starts have all fallen under this number and 8 of 10 overall. Blanton's overs on the road have mainly come from the Phils scoring a lot for him, that may be hard against Garza who has only given up more than 3 ER twice in his last 10. Sorry for the quick write-up, but I'm still moving crap and I had limited time today.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-09, 08:37 PM

Play #127: Giants Team Total OVER 3.5 (-125)
The A's are sending Gio Gonzalez to them mound. In 2008, he had close to an 8 ERA in starting 7 of 10 appearances. Out of the pen in 2009, not much better with an ERA over 7. Giants haven't been great vs. southpaws, but this might be the spot for them to have some moderate success. Gio is also coming out of the pen, so his stay in the game is likely to be short. A's pen though has been pretty solid.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-09, 09:55 PM

LSU brings home the bigger winner! Woo haw!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-24-09, 10:16 PM

Giants done in the 4th. Smells like burning.