San Francisco 52% - Both starters here are iffy, but Lowry is in general significantly less so. Still, he is off of a high pitch count, and the Washington lineup has been producing well after adding more depth at the break, so he is likely to struggle as much as Astacio. Lowry is likely to have a higher inning total than Astacio, and San Francisco will also have a bit more bullpen depth for this game, which gives them a slight edge.
Arizona 63% - After a very rocky June, Webb has been on cruise control in July, and there's no reason to think that won't continue here. Philadelphia continues to underachieve, and they do not have the character to challenge Webb unless he is for some reason off of his game tonight. Lieber may well have a quality start of his own, but even if he does, it is likely to be a notch below Webb's outing. His terrible career record against Arizona is probably just anomalous. Bob Melvin, the Arizona manager, has botched his bullpen situation, creating problems where there ought not be any, and turning what should be a strength of Arizona's into a probable temporary weakness. Hopefully if Arizona goes into the 9th inning with a small lead, he will know not to go to Jorge Julio again. But he does seem to have a knack for mismanagement, which could potentially cost Arizona in a game such as this.
Atlanta 59% - Atlanta will get back Chipper Jones tonight, which will give them a boost. Johnson may be able to match up evenly with Smoltz, however. Both starters are likely to have 7-inning, 3-run type outings. In a close game, Atlanta's pen, which has gotten a bit better, should be able to keep them in the game, giving them a home-field edge.