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I am passing on tonight's game.
For those interested, I do lean to the over. However, there are too many unknowns surrounding johnson right now to make this a play. He has had a year to recover from the shoulder injury and his velocity is up, so he could perform well tonight. While I like both offenses in this spot, I think the better move is to pass. Good luck to everyone tonight.
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Heavy money on the over. Can still get it at one place at +100 but everywhere else is -120. I am playing it and your lean gives me a bit more confidence, I see the marlins putting on a real show tonight
hey, LTA, just wanted to stop in and wish you BOL this season. always love your threads, you're a true class act.
Hey Lta i am looking forward to your mlb handicapping and analysis this year. Best of Luck !
Well Im going to make an action play on the Miamis Team Total over 4 based on LTAs lean
Become A Pro!
Saw some places with Marlins TT 3.5. Shop around for a better lineOriginally Posted by mikea33
Only have a local account. Id eat up that 3.5 line.
I think they are gonna put on a show in the new stadium tonight.
I tend to agree, but baseball is so fickle, not so easy to "put" on a show, like a QB in football, or a basketball player can....so many isloated match-ups and chance. Another factor that we need to start getting a read on is the new stadium, and how it is going to effect offense.,....I am not playing the game either, but threw an action wager out there on Marlins R/L/over parlay just for the **** of it.
GL
Good Luck with the season LTA.....finally, a sport i truly enjoy. Not like those punks in the NBA who show up when they want.
Couldn't agree more Dex!
Bol this season LTA!
Biff! Hope all is well buddy
Good luck Dex
Become A Pro!
Shouldn't of bought out of my Under play ....
Gl, very excited for the season!
MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/5/2012
Play #1
Dodgers ML (-145) 0.75x (Locked)
I don't play such high-priced road faves often and the books are charging a premium to play Kershaw in this game. However, that's not enough to deter my Dodger money in this spot. Although my model does not have reliable data at this point, I would price the Dodgers around -155 in this spot which where I expect this game to close. For comparison sakes, Strasburg and the Natties are set as -155 road faves against a Cubs team with a better pitcher (Dempster) than Volquez, so I see no reason why Kershaw should not be priced higher in this spot. Make no mistake, the Dodgers have plenty of weaknesses, including a suspect offense and bullpen. However, when you consider their opponent in this game, I still like LA to win because SD just does not have the bats to take it to Kershaw. I don't put much stock into spring training numbers, but Ethier looked good, and with Loney and Kemp, the Dodgers have the better offensive capabilities against an inconsistent pitcher like Volquez. I realize this is a "public" play, but I like everything I have read so far on Kershaw's approach heading into the season. He definitely put the work in and that tells me he wants to continue to get better rather than rest on his laurels like some great pitchers before him. I like that attitude and I think Kershaw comes out focused on Thursday night in what should be a 100 or so pitch effort. Because they are playing in Petco, I am confident that LA's bullpen can get through 2-3 innings and limit the light-hitting Padres. I have this game set around -155 giving us about 10 cents of value on this play. Based on the foregoing, i am rolling with the Dodgers for 0.75x now, with a possibility of adding to that stake sometime tomorrow. Good luck.
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Love it love kershaw let's get out to a good start!
I will probably have two more plays (both totals) in the afternoon games, but I am waiting on better numbers. Good luck to all everyone this season. Let's have a great one
Hey LTA, how have you been with betting MLB totals in the past? I can see your past record but that's overall...just wondering if you have it broken down between MLs and Totals anywhere.
I already have a system that I tend to follow throughout the whole season that involves betting underdogs. Pretty much never pay any juice on MLs & it's proven to be very profitable. That system does not involve totals though so I might still be interested in your total plays..
Good luck this season
good luck LTA, cannot thank you enough for all you do
On the unit size, is that to win .75 units or risk?
BOL bud for the season.. I don't handicap MLB at all due to my lack of knowledge.. Will tail you for every play thru the season
Good luck LT
Thanks BTJ....I appreciate thatgood luck LTA, cannot thank you enough for all you do
Good luck to you as well Pauly.Good luck LT
Hey Redscot....check in pal.
Just like last season, I will be looking forward to your early scouting reports, nuggets of information, late-breaking news, inside info on any DR-based youngsters and all the other great information and insight that you provide. Thanks.
Let's get after it....good luck buddy!
I would ask that someone post the umpire assignments as they are available, especially for the Nationals/Cubs game and the Blue Jays/Indians game.
Thank you.
Love Dodgers here too LTA
Hey Redscot....check in pal.
Just like last season, I will be looking forward to your early scouting reports, nuggets of information, late-breaking news, inside info on any DR-based youngsters and all the other great information and insight that you provide. Thanks.
Let's get after it....good luck buddy!
Yo, Yo. It's that time of year again baby, gonna be a lot of fun and hopefully a lot of green. On semi-vacation this week, so internet kinda spotty, but have a few first impressions (btw, I'll include my projected era for each pitcher I mention).
First of all I like the Dodger play, maybe the games best pitcher, Kershaw (2.71) coming in against the lowly Pad's. I do find the total interesting, books are giving Volquez (4.34) some respect (or the Dodgers lineup none). I think Volquez performs better this year, two years removed from TJ surgery but still think his control issues will dog him....he will have games where he is on and throwing strikes where he can pitch like an ace. I think the Dodgers may surprise some people this year.
Cubs home opener against a pitcher who will probably be on a pitch count, and the back end of the BP a little light after losing Storen for the start. Dempster (3.99) is a much better pitcher than last years era suggests, but the Cubbie lineup scares me here. End of the day home opener at Wrigley Strasburg (publicly overated) Dempster (publicly underated) and no Storen for Washington....there may be some value here.
Miami had their home opener last night and then had to hit the road right away and head to Cinccy. Buehrle (4.15) has a hard time putting away RHB's and Cincy'slineup only features two lefties, both who hit lefties well. On the other side Cueto (3.72) was one of the luckiest pitchers last season and will probably be overvalued for at least the start of this season. I don't like overs as much as unders but I think 8 runs in this game is not too hard to imagine.
Masterson (3.74) and Romero (3.79) are pretty much a wash, and Cleveland a home dog.....The total here also strikes me as low as both of these pitchers out performed their advanced stats last year. I will also add here that Masterson has had a shaky spring and Romero has only thrown 11 innings this spring.....
Gonna try and have a deeper look at the games later, if I see anything interesting will definitely chime in.
Last edited by Redscot; 04-05-12 at 08:04 AM.
Anyone else think the price on Verlander at home has some value? Opening day against the red sox the crowd should be pumped up
Good stuff, thanks. What is the pitch count for strasburg? 100?Yo, Yo. It's that time of year again baby, gonna be a lot of fun and hopefully a lot of green. On semi-vacation this week, so internet kinda spotty, but have a few first impressions (btw, I'll include my projected era for each pitcher I mention).
First of all I like the Dodger play, maybe the games best pitcher, Kershaw (2.71) coming in against the lowly Pad's. I do find the total interesting, books are giving Volquez (4.34) some respect (or the Dodgers lineup none). I think Volquez performs better this year, two years removed from TJ surgery but still think his control issues will dog him....he will have games where he is on and throwing strikes where he can pitch like an ace. I think the Dodgers may surprise some people this year.
Cubs home opener against a pitcher who will probably be on a pitch count, and the back end of the BP a little light after losing Storen for the start. Dempster (3.99) is a much better pitcher than last years era suggests, but the Cubbie lineup scares me here. End of the day home opener at Wrigley Strasburg (publicly overated) Dempster (publicly underated) and no Storen for Washington....there may be some value here.
Miami had their home opener last night and then had to hit the road right away and head to Cinccy. Buehrle (4.15) has a hard time putting away RHB's and Cincy'slineup only features two lefties, both who hit lefties well. On the other side Cueto (3.72) was one of the luckiest pitchers last season and will probably be overvalued for at least the start of this season. I don't like overs as much as unders but I think 8 runs in this game is not too hard to imagine.
Masterson (3.74) and Romero (3.79) are pretty much a wash, and Cleveland a home dog.....The total here also strikes me as low as both of these pitchers out performed their advanced stats last year. I will also add here that Masterson has had a shaky spring and Romero has only thrown 11 innings this spring.....
Gonna try and have a deeper look at the games later, if I see anything interesting will definitely chime in.
I know a lot of guys expect a regression for romero and masterson, but I think both will pitch as well or better tham last year. Are there any health issues with either romero or masterson. That total is set low for a reason as the books are begging for over money opening at 7. They are set to collect a ton of juice on a 4-2 game. By gametime, the wind is projected to blow in at 15mph and its cold in cleveland as well in the high 40's/low 50's. Why didnt they stretch romero out more than 11 innings?
snip3r2006 gave Love The Action 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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