Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[EXhoosier10]

5/7
Oak @ Cle u8.5 -112 ~ 1.5u -- potentially adding more
Det FF -109 ~ 1.5u
Det -106 ~ 0.75u


Lean: TB, KC, Cin, Stl, Mia, Ari

[No coincidences]

forgot to put in the actual play on the under 8.5.

I thought you meant you liked Cleveland as a side.

You just riding the hot hand with the Tigers? Anibal's inconsistency still scares me, and Zimm is becoming elite. Not sure what to think there personally.

[EXhoosier10]

You just riding the hot hand with the Tigers? Anibal's inconsistency still scares me, and Zimm is becoming elite. Not sure what to think there personally.

overall, i think Zimm only has a slight advantage over Anibal. IMO Tigers hitting is better enough than Washington's (as well as recent performance) that as a dog/pick, there is some value.
side note --- Taking out anibal's first 4 games with Detroit, he has a 2.10 ERA over 94 innings. I liked him a lot last year and outside of those same 4 games, he did nothing but produce all year (3.3 ERA). I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say after 7 years in Miami, it took a month to get acclimated with a new team/location. Looking into his splits, I don't see anything that stands out as him being worse out of the stretch v. the windup, so he shouldn't produce worse w/ RISP. You definitely watch more of Anibal than I do, but I just don't see much in the way of anything that would cause him to be inconsistent.

[No coincidences]

overall, i think Zimm only has a slight advantage over Anibal. IMO Tigers hitting is better enough than Washington's (as well as recent performance) that as a dog/pick, there is some value.
side note --- Taking out anibal's first 4 games with Detroit, he has a 2.10 ERA over 94 innings. I liked him a lot last year and outside of those same 4 games, he did nothing but produce all year (3.3 ERA). I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say after 7 years in Miami, it took a month to get acclimated with a new team/location. Looking into his splits, I don't see anything that stands out as him being worse out of the stretch v. the windup, so he shouldn't produce worse w/ RISP. You definitely watch more of Anibal than I do, but I just don't see much in the way of anything that would cause him to be inconsistent.

Well, inconsistent is a relative term here, I guess, compared to the stuff that he has. He's always had the makeup of an elite pitcher, but sometimes, tends to drift. He's not inconsistent as a 3 or 4 starter, but if he's going to win 15 (which he should), he needs to take the next step mentally in bearing down and zoning in. Tonight will be a good challenge for him.

[italianbandit]

As a team, the Nats’ 83 wRC+ is 27th overall, and over the past 14 days they have sunk even further, to a 61 wRC+ that is dead last in the game.

[EXhoosier10]

As a team, the Nats’ 83 wRC+ is 27th overall, and over the past 14 days they have sunk even further, to a 61 wRC+ that is dead last in the game.

Washington's TTu3.5 is -125.... I would love to play that, but Detroit's bullpen is good for a run or three in 2 innings. Would be cutting it close IMO at those odds.

[No coincidences]

Washington's TTu3.5 is -125.... I would love to play that, but Detroit's bullpen is good for a run or three in 2 innings. Would be cutting it close IMO at those odds.

Their bullpen is really disappointing. You'd think a team that wants to be a serious WS contender with Dombrowski in charge would realize how important it is to not only have a decent closer, but long relief and setup guys. Benoit is OK and Smyly's filled his role nicely, but there are a lot of holes. Can't believe they've basically ignored such an important aspect of the game.

[EXhoosier10]

5/7
Oak @ Cle u8.5 -112 ~ 1.5u -- potentially adding more
Det FF -109 ~ 1.5u
Det -106 ~ 0.75u


Lean: TB, KC, Cin, Stl, Mia, Ari

Adding:
Stl -130 ~ 1.5u
Oak @ Cle u8.5 -115 ~ 1u (makes this play 2.5u)

[italianbandit]

Agree on Wash's TT.

[No coincidences]

What do you guys think of the SEA/PIT under 8? Too much juice?

[EXhoosier10]

What do you guys think of the SEA/PIT under 8? Too much juice?

Pitcher #'s point to an over, hitters #'s go under. Too much guesswork at who's ineptitude will shine through for me to make a play here. I reserve the right to change my mind once an ump is announced, though. An under ump could help harang nibble and call strikes when Mcdonald misses the target by 6 inches, an over ump could make harang pitch to contact and mcdonald ends up walking the world. Too much variance with these SP's to make a play w/o all information

[italianbandit]

Interestingly, Sanchez leads the league in pitching WAR.

[EXhoosier10]

Adding
TB FF -135 ~ 1u

[tatddy]

Pitcher #'s point to an over, hitters #'s go under. Too much guesswork at who's ineptitude will shine through for me to make a play here. I reserve the right to change my mind once an ump is announced, though. An under ump could help harang nibble and call strikes when Mcdonald misses the target by 6 inches, an over ump could make harang pitch to contact and mcdonald ends up walking the world. Too much variance with these SP's to make a play w/o all information

Gomez in McDonald out. Much better price for PIT backers.

[EXhoosier10]

JA Happ just got drilled in the head by a line drive and is coming off. oh man that was ugly

[italianbandit]

Col looks tempting, but I'm going to pass.

[EXhoosier10]

Col looks tempting, but I'm going to pass.

I never know how to play games in coors with pitchers who have never thrown there before. I didn't even bother looking at that game because of it.
I get Internet hooked up tomorrow, so I'll be more active for night games tomorrow.

[Dayna619]

I also, unofficially, am leaning on the Yankees and the Athletics as two other plays.

[EXhoosier10]

Step up your game, Cardinals. You're getting beat by Travis Wood and the Cubs.

[No coincidences]

Step up your game, Cardinals. You're getting beat by Travis Wood and the Cubs.

I can't figure out what's been so perplexing about Wood this year. I've watched him pitch a few times and nothing seems to be different than in the past.

BTW, nice call on that OAK/CLE under. You are the anti-me when it comes to totals -- LOL.

[EXhoosier10]

I can't figure out what's been so perplexing about Wood this year. I've watched him pitch a few times and nothing seems to be different than in the past.

BTW, nice call on that OAK/CLE under. You are the anti-me when it comes to totals -- LOL.

It's gotta be that nasty beard. Villanueva and wood may be on to something

[italianbandit]

Great call on under Ex,

[No coincidences]

Great call on under Ex,

Great cappers nail the big ones. His multi-unit plays have been money so far this year.

[EXhoosier10]

5/7: 2-1 +1.55
YTD: 79-54-9 +16.395u

Great cappers nail the big ones. His multi-unit plays have been money so far this year.

Thanks man. I'm hitting something like 65% on plays >1u this year. That'll come down a bit, but should hover around 60% if things stay similar to the last few years.

[EXhoosier10]

5/8
Tor +173 ~ 1u --- Jays bats are hot and TB's pen is in shambles. Moore usually doesn't go deep into games, so another day against Gomes/Rodney/Wright should give the jays a chance. -- Probably adding Jays TTo3 or 3.5 as well.

[EXhoosier10]

Leans - Mia, Det FF, maybe Chw if line moves closer to a pick, Cin @ Atl o8.5, Bal @ KC u9, Oak @ Cle u8.5, Stl @ Chc o8, Phi @ Sf u8, TB @ Tor o7.5

Probably going to wait for lineups to book any of these leans

[EXhoosier10]

Adding:
Det FF -106 ~ 3u ---- ML opened at -119 for detroit and is now down to -106, but I'm guessing washington is the more "public" team. Wish they played the game yesterday, but I don't see any reason Detroit doesn't win FF

5/8
Tor +173 ~ 1u
Det FF -106 ~ 3u

[EXhoosier10]

Adding:
Tor TTo3 -110 ~ 0.75u
Atl TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.75u

5/8
Tor +173 ~ 1u
Det FF -106 ~ 3u
Tor TTo3 -110 ~ 0.75u
Atl TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.75u

[EXhoosier10]

Adding:
Pit -103 ~ 0.5u

5/8
Det FF -106 ~ 3u
Tor +173 ~ 1u
Tor TTo3 -110 ~ 0.75u
Atl TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.75u
Pit -103 ~ 0.5u

[EXhoosier10]

Adding:
Stl @ Chc o8 -115 ~ 1.5u

5/8
Det FF -106 ~ 3u
Stl @ Chc o8 -115 ~ 1.5u
Tor +173 ~ 1u
Tor TTo3 -110 ~ 0.75u
Atl TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.75u
Pit -103 ~ 0.5u

Not sure I like how big this card is getting

[No coincidences]

Adding:
Stl @ Chc o8 -115 ~ 1.5u

5/8
Det FF -106 ~ 3u
Stl @ Chc o8 -115 ~ 1.5u
Tor +173 ~ 1u
Tor TTo3 -110 ~ 0.75u
Atl TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.75u
Pit -103 ~ 0.5u

Not sure I like how big this card is getting

I might take a nibble on the Cubs TT over 3.5. Just wish I could get a -110 or -115.

[EXhoosier10]

Adding
phi FF +0.5 -110 ~ 1u

Pettibone is a pretty decent MiLB pitcher with good control. Phillies lineup looks pretty good today against lefties and no posey for SF. Worth a play since I was leaning under to begin with

[No coincidences]

Adding
phi FF +0.5 -110 ~ 1u

Pettibone is a pretty decent MiLB pitcher with good control. Phillies lineup looks pretty good today against lefties and no posey for SF. Worth a play since I was leaning under to begin with

I would love to tail you on this, because I enjoy fading Zito and SF's lineup doesn't look all that great. I just don't have enough of a read on Pettibone. Good luck, Ex.

[EXhoosier10]

I would love to tail you on this, because I enjoy fading Zito and SF's lineup doesn't look all that great. I just don't have enough of a read on Pettibone. Good luck, Ex.

Probably a good idea. I think I'm confusing a lean for some mid afternoon action. Betting 4 afternoon games can't possibly turn out profitable

[EXhoosier10]

5/8
Det FF -106 ~ 3u
Stl @ Chc o8 -115 ~ 1.5u +1.5
Tor +173 ~ 1u
Tor TTo3 -110 ~ 0.75u
Phi FF +0.5 -110 ~ 1u -1.1
Atl TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.75u +0.75
Pit -103 ~ 0.5u -0.515

2-2 +0.635 so far