[suicidekings]

Originally posted on 01/02/2013:

need ya opinion dex... have a 7 team paralay $60 to win $5750 already hit 5 of them and remaining games are Florida -13.5 and Texas A&M -4.5 how should I approach it so I get some money?

Sk is good with this type of advice. I don't play exotics. Fly. Will post thoughts later.

How much capital do you have and how much are you comfortable getting out of it? It's paying out at almost 100-1, so you could really make a decent sized play on Louisville +14.5 (say, $825 to win $750), and still return 12.5-1 on the original investment if Louisville covers, plus the middle opportunity around 14. You're then still holding the equivalent to a $885 to win $5750 on Texas A&M -4.5 (+650) that you could hedge evenly with OU +4.5 (-110), risking $3475 to win $3150. (it's +3.5 now, but will probably move back closer to +4/+4.5. You might have to pay some extra juice on it). You're still going to clear no less than $2000 on the series of bets, and potentially more like $4000 on TAMU if you settled for a modest hedge on Louisville and Oklahoma.

I would play to win a few hundred on Louisville +14.5 just as security regardless and then re-assess what you want to do on Friday. No sense in relying on the assumption of a team's effort to cover a big spread with such a huge ticket in your hand. Amounts variable depending on how much you like your original bets, but you get the idea.

And great job on the parlay, man.


Quick hedge spreadsheet: Attachment 52214

It's exported from Google Docs, and I can't actually check it in Excel on this laptop. Hopefully that works.