AFC North Division Odds, Picks: Should Ravens be Bigger Favorites?
While the Baltimore Ravens are only 3-3 on the season, should they be considered stronger favorites to win the AFC North? This article analyzes the Ravens' odds to win the AFC North and determines if it is a number we should bet on.
Are the Ravens a much better team than their record suggests? Along with the three games that they have won, they also held leads in the three games they lost. During the three games the Ravens lost, they blew leads of 21 points to the Miami Dolphins, 17 points to the Buffalo Bills, and 10 points to the New York Giants.
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The Ravens' odds would be much different if they were 6-0 on the season because of the media hype they would receive. Their 3-3 record allows us to buy them for a better price than they should be traded for in our picks to win the AFC North, let's take a closer look at their odds.
AFC North Odds
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Ravens | -160 | -135 | -140 |
| Bengals | +225 | +195 | +200 |
| Browns | +750 | +700 | +700 |
| Steelers | +1800 | +2200 | +2200 |
AFC North Picks: Ravens (-135 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Competition is not as stiff as it may seem
Although the Ravens are only 3-3 on the season, their metrics indicate that they have a strong hold on the AFC North. It is important to note that the Ravens are a much better team than their record indicates, and they were holding a substantial lead in all three games in which they lost. Despite team records possibly suggesting otherwise, the AFC North is not as close as it appears.
The Pittsburgh Steelers may have beaten the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, but they are still missing T.J. Watt on defense and rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett will experience growing pains. Before Deshaun Watson returns to the lineup, the Cleveland Browns may find themselves out of contention, largely due to their defense, which ranks 31st in the NFL by overall DVOA.
At 3-3, the Cincinnati Bengals are tied with the Ravens, but it is important to note that the Ravens currently hold the tiebreaker due to their head-to-head victory in Week 5. In terms of remaining schedules, the Bengals have the second toughest, while the Ravens have the fourth easiest. The Bengals' first-place schedule plays a major role in this equation compared to the Ravens' fourth-place schedule.
The value's on the Ravens
My power ratings indicate that the Ravens should be trading at -185 to win the AFC North, and if they did not blow three games in which they had a large lead, the price point would be significantly shorter. The Ravens represent an opportunity to buy low on a team that we know is good, but their record does not fully reflect that.
FanDuel is offering the best price on the Ravens to win the AFC North, at -135 odds. At Caesars Sportsbook, the Ravens' odds are as low as -161. That's still a number I would consider, but it's not as valuable as the -135.
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