EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-31-10, 11:01 PM

[BASEL] ISNER-LLODRA UNDER 23.5 [+122]
A public punisher for Monday as the juice is heavily on the over here at -150. I like this possibility of it being finished in straights because we've got Llodra who is known to tank against Isner who played well last week, but was not moving all that great in Montpellier - so he could go good or bad this week. Isner a bit surprisingly is not at his best on the indoor surface at just 17-13 in his career and 6-5 in 2010. Llodra has been good on indoor surfaces, but almost 95% of his play has been in France on this surface over the last few seasons. Outside of France, he's 1-4 on indoor hard courts over the past two years with three of those losses in straights.

**cobalt king** · 10-31-10, 11:26 PM

Any value in putting a couple bucks on Dolgopolov at +1100 I'm guessing not

**shari91** · 11-01-10, 12:01 AM

Love Bohli here. Best of luck EP!

**Shifty107** · 11-01-10, 04:40 AM

might take bohli as well tonight EP. Cant take Haase at those odds for sure.

**necro** · 11-01-10, 05:11 AM

Bohli is good option, jes

**OGUCCI-SBR** · 11-01-10, 05:50 AM

Best of luck on that Bohli play but I'm almost sure Haase takes it.

**Like_a_G6** · 11-01-10, 05:57 AM

Correction on the info about Bohli, he didn't win the title, he lost to Gicquel.
Head to head wise, Haase leads 1-0 but that was 3 years ago.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-01-10, 07:21 AM

Yes, correct on that. Bohli did lose in that final. Long day yesterday, my eyes were crossed apparently.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-01-10, 09:13 AM

Updated the Isner-Llodra line. Got an extra half point now at 23.5 with an ever better price at +122. Staying with the public punisher.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-01-10, 10:27 AM

[MEDELLIN CHALLENGER] DECOUD +150
Decoud draws Capdeville today on clay. The price is too high on Capdeville for me considering that outside of his run to the Santiago final a couple weeks ago, he has had a poor season overall. Capdeville was beaten by Bellucci in Sao Paulo last week and lost in the first round of this Medellin tournament in 2009. Decoud has played a light schedule in the summer, but has rounded into some good form in the past two months. Decoud has made the semis of two of the last three clay Challengers he entered. I think Decoud has a steadier serve and for me, I don't understand the support of making Capdeville this large a favorite in what I think is more of a toss-up.

**nicsbr** · 11-01-10, 10:47 AM

gl on the pick

**dlweaver** · 11-01-10, 11:39 AM

LOVE the UNDER on Isner/Llodra

**beefcake** · 11-01-10, 12:51 PM

Screw you bohli...

Ep, gg lopez to tkae out ferrer at +200...!!

What do you think?

**DMB40** · 11-01-10, 01:46 PM

isner line up to -203

**beefcake** · 11-01-10, 02:07 PM

Ep what did you think of dolgo retiring at 5-2 in the 2nd when the spread was -5.5 6-2 covers for fed...SHADY!!..

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-01-10, 03:17 PM

Yeah I don't know what the "injury" was, but that's crap. Superb slow start to the week. Blah.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-02-10, 12:17 AM

PARLAY: GASQUET + ALMAGRO [-112]
Gasquet must recover from his choke jon last week, but he's a much better player than Lu on this surface. Lu is just 2-4 in limited action this year on indoor hard courts. Gasquet has also seen limited work, but he's also seen action on this particular surface last year in making the QFs. If Gasquet serves well early, I think he'll roll later. Almagro draws Gimeno-Traver. Neither Spaniard loves this surface, but I've always thought Almagro was somewhat under rated on quicker surfaces because his serve CAN be a weapon when working. He had some decent results on a hard surface last tournament and I think he's better suited here.

[BASEL] BERRER +160
He draws Troicki who outside of his Moscow win is still not at his best in this controlled indoor environment. Berrer beat him on a similar surface way early this year and has the ability to pull off the win. Berrer played well in Vienna last week and if he can find a similar serve to last week's, he rates a shot.

**Like_a_G6** · 11-02-10, 02:27 AM

Love berrer here, I love u too...

**beefcake** · 11-02-10, 08:32 AM

Man crush!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-02-10, 08:47 AM

Fade me this week. No mojo. I had Chela down as one to take and passed. Think I'm going to be horrible all week.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-02-10, 10:24 AM

I may take off a little for the next couple of days, between picking absolute shit and the computer issues I am having during the day ... my mindset is fukked.

**beefcake** · 11-02-10, 10:51 AM

Take break man..I usually do from now until bowl season...

**sharlataans** · 11-02-10, 10:52 AM

Is it possible Davydenko loses today to Marti? (on purpose)

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-02-10, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Take break man..I usually do from now until bowl season...

I don't mind losing picks here and there, but starting in a deep hole for the beginning of the week and where my frustration level is at right now with this computer issues = bad mojo. MY original picks for today when I outlined them were Chela, Berrer and Gasquet-Lu Over. Started thinking too much apparently. I'll probably be back tomorrow and just remember to go gut or go home.

Wouldn't doubt anything with Davydenko, but I have never even heard of his opponent so he'll probably beat him today, but he'll be a good fade at some point this week.

**sharlataans** · 11-02-10, 11:08 AM

Man, I almost never bet tennis, but today my gut tells me to bet SOMETHING in Davydenko game. Sometimes it turns out quite good.

I will probably go
Javier Marti vs. Nikolay Davydenko (TOTAL POINTS OVER 18.5 +110)

Anyone with me?

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-02-10, 11:22 AM

Anything could happen, but there's so little sample size with Marti that it's tough to predict. Not a bad shot to take though at plus money, good luck!

**sharlataans** · 11-02-10, 11:27 AM

Thanks EaglesPhan. What TOTALS bet would you take in Davy game?

And what is actual difference between Hard and Indoor courts - is it basically the same? Marti has played quite a lot of games on hard, but not in indoors.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-02-10, 12:29 PM

Outdoor you've got wind, etc. to worry about. Indoors none of that. All the surfaces are different though. Some indoor courts are slow, some fast. If I recall, I think Valencia is slower than most. No opinion really on that total. I think it's set about right. Donkey-denko could spank him 6-3, 6-3 or he could struggle and the over is done because of one set ... no edge for me.

**VOJVODINA** · 11-02-10, 05:49 PM

GL

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-03-10, 12:20 AM

[BASEL] STEPANEK -118
Crazy like a fix? Stepanek took a wildcard to get into Basel this week, so I am following the idea that since he took the exception to play here that he is here to at least show up in the first round. de Bakker is a promising talent, but it seems like the play of a long season has caught him late with just a 2-4 mark in his last four tournaments. He is still green on this surface too. Stepanek played decently in Moscow on the indoor surface and smartly took some time off to avoid fatigue.

**Yezzir** · 11-03-10, 05:25 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

[BASEL] STEPANEK -118
Crazy like a fix? Stepanek took a wildcard to get into Basel this week, so I am following the idea that since he took the exception to play here that he is here to at least show up in the first round. de Bakker is a promising talent, but it seems like the play of a long season has caught him late with just a 2-4 mark in his last four tournaments. He is still green on this surface too. Stepanek played decently in Moscow on the indoor surface and smartly took some time off to avoid fatigue.

Loving this play.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-03-10, 07:30 AM

We'll find out soon. Either gonna look smart or fukk stick is gonna make me want to hop on the first flight to Basel to beat his ass.

**shari91** · 11-03-10, 07:39 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

We'll find out soon. Either gonna look smart or fukk stick is gonna make me want to hop on the first flight to Basel to beat his ass.

I put a bit on the over but couldn't be assed even trying to pick a side here. Feels like Dumb and Dumber Volume 690 playing in this one. Best of luck with Step - hopefully he plays to his full ability in this one with no funny business.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-03-10, 08:33 AM

No surprise, Youzhny withdraws from Valencia. What was surprising was people were supporting him against Cuevas even after he said several times last week that he felt like shit. He just saved some dumb asses from losing money.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-03-10, 09:05 AM

[BASEL] MATHIEU +145
Outside of his run in Stockholm on this surface this year, Florian Mayer is about as trustworthy as Mathieu on this indoor surface. What I like here is that even though PHM is a lucky loser entry, he's got match play on the surface and played very tough against Haase in losing a 3rd set tie break in his last qualifier. If PHM can avoid silly double faulting issues and get his 1st serve in, I think this is going to be competitive and I'm gonna bank that Mayer's one shining moment was just that.