CFL 2018 Thread

**KVB** · 08-11-18, 08:25 PM

This is what the market is showing us right now...

Originally posted by KVB

...This is the CFL and even though we saw a come from behind upset in the first game this week, the Hamilton upset was sold to sharp groups, and that money tends to come back. Is it ready to bounce with a Montreal upset?

It’s too risky to shoot for even though we know Johnny Football will eventually win a game. Last week looked so horrible that, just as Hamilton let down the bettors after a blowout win, Montreal may surprise on the other side following that same blowout loss.

On that same note, notice the alignment in the forecasts. They don’t’ just have Ottawa covering the spread; they have Ottawa, at least, with roughly the same score. This type of alignment can fall, we’ve seen it, but I am not sure we have the volume for such an upset, even if we do have a look at a spot type play.

That said, Johnny Football brings volume and there may be volume I am not picking up on in my sources. I’ll update with any changes I see or hear...

If it is the upset, it's not one of those bigger, playoff style where everyone is surprised, even though some will seem surprised, it's more about the post above.

I almost talked myself into the upset bet with that post, but, after last year, I have slightly more rigid criteria for that bold play. I may have been off a day and feel like I should have seen this coming.

Over and over, since last year, I, and others too, say Montreal will cover more spreads this year, we might be seeing it happening.

All that alignment in numbers combined with yesterdays upset metric failing, if I had Montreal to win I'd have sharks out.

But with Ottawa -13.5 in the Fund, I feel like the sharks already bit.

**Hngkng** · 08-11-18, 08:46 PM

Side note, something happened in Saskatchewan with Duron Carter.

He has been released

**KVB** · 08-11-18, 08:57 PM

Oh shit, I see it on cfl. ca says more to come.

That guy is one of a handful of game changers in the league, it seems, and he can play both sides.

It's kind of a big deal I would say.

**Hngkng** · 08-11-18, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Oh shit, I see it on cfl. ca says more to come.

That guy is one of a handful of game changers in the league, it seems, and he can play both sides.

It's kind of a big deal I would say.

The only reasoning I can see is legal reasons. He’s too talented.

**KVB** · 08-11-18, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

The only reasoning I can see is legal reasons. He’s too talented.

It's NFL style drama.

See what bringing Johnny to the league did?

**Hngkng** · 08-11-18, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by KVB

It's NFL style drama.

See what bringing Johnny to the league did?

Haha, Saskatchewan worked out Terrell Owens last week too.

**cankid** · 08-11-18, 09:49 PM

Carter what a frickin douche so talented and yet so volatile, he's his own worse enemy, had to have daily meeting on how things were going and what was acceptable and what wasnt. I'm a Rider fan and obviously there are many plays in a game but I'm not exaggerating by saying he costs them some terrible negative yardage plays late in games that led to losses.

Perfect example was last year against Ottawa, so the team is fighting hard, he makes a great catch in the end zone and Sask takes the lead on a TD, walks past Ottawa bench knocks/brushes Ottawa head coach who goes down like a sack of potatoes. After that play Sask gets penalized 30 yards, Carter gets kicked out of game and the total make up of game changes. Sask doesn't score another point for the half and doesn't score a point in the 2nd half and obviously they lose the game lol. Many say you don't give up on talent but how many chances are you going to give a guy?

**cankid** · 08-11-18, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Haha, Saskatchewan worked out Terrell Owens last week too.

I heard that any follow up to that?

**Hngkng** · 08-11-18, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by cankid

Carter what a frickin douche so talented and yet so volatile, he's his own worse enemy, had to have daily meeting on how things were going and what was acceptable and what wasnt. I'm a Rider fan and obviously there are many plays in a game but I'm not exaggerating by saying he costs them some terrible negative yardage plays late in games that led to losses.

Perfect example was last year against Ottawa, so the team is fighting hard, he makes a great catch in the end zone and Sask takes the lead on a TD, walks past Ottawa bench knocks/brushes Ottawa head coach who goes down like a sack of potatoes. After that play Sask gets penalized 30 yards, Carter gets kicked out of game and the total make up of game changes. Sask doesn't score another point for the half and doesn't score a point in the 2nd half and obviously they lose the game lol. Many say you don't give up on talent but how many chances are you going to give a guy?

2016 when Carter was still with Montreal. And as you said, Ottawa's coach flopped like a soccer player.

I am not sure what happened, it could be fight, or maybe legal troubles. He did get caught with weed in February this year.

I loved Carter, my favourite player, but definitely a cancer in the room. When times are good you love him, when times are bad, you can see he will eventually go off.

Originally posted by cankid

I heard that any follow up to that?

As for Owens, he only ran for a bit, and caught balls. Nothing after that, Owens, and the Riders HC agreed that he needs to get into football shape.
I wouldn't put anything past the Riders right now. Last year they had Vince Young, and Trent Richardson.

**KVB** · 08-11-18, 10:06 PM

I think one announcer made a remark before Ottawa got the tying FG about how SSK released a corner, then the other announcer chuckled slightly.

Then nothing...lol, no details, nothing, but they alerted us that they knew. I didn't hear the first 3 quarters of the game, though, so maybe they discussed it.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-11-18, 10:07 PM

Anybody watch the end-game? Last TD decided 2h winner.

Seemed like OTT would kick FG quite often there. Not even sure MONT had timeout left.

**Hngkng** · 08-11-18, 10:08 PM

On a betting stand point, a clean sweep with the unders this week.

**Hngkng** · 08-11-18, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Anybody watch the end-game? Last TD decided 2h winner.

Seemed like OTT would kick FG quite often there. Not even sure MONT had timeout left.

They basically tried to run out the clock to kick a FG, but ended up getting a TD.
Started running on the Montreal 36, Montreal burned a timeout on that drive

**KVB** · 08-11-18, 10:11 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

On a betting stand point, a clean sweep with the unders this week.

Yeah, that first game pushed the opener but an under for a lot and a clean under the rest of the way.

The sharp forecast was successful as well all three times against the close.

We're getting a story.

**KVB** · 08-11-18, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 34 or 36 points to Montreal’s 13 or 14 points. The stacking percentages forecast shows Ottawa winning with 34 or 36 points to Montreal’s 16-17 points. The public gauge has Ottawa winning 33-17.

Less sophisticated methods using season averages and medians show Ottawa with the same 30 or 33 points with Totals in the mid 40’s...

All those numbers lining up on Ottawa, it's like they were doomed before it began, I mentioned it but should have been more vocal.

Notice in the paying of the Unders, some of those forecasts were sidelined. Something I usually mention in the original analysis, bettors being sidelined, but I guess I got complacent.

**Hngkng** · 08-11-18, 10:28 PM

KVB do you have any sharp action/analysis on NFL season win totals?

**KVB** · 08-11-18, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

KVB do you have any sharp action/analysis on NFL season win totals?

Not really, here was a post from the 6th and would suggest anyone wanting the get the rams for the SuperBowl to do it because the the line will move...

Originally posted by KVB

Word out of the WestGate back office says that the Rams have the single most number of tickets bet on them to win the Superbowl.

I know it's early and anything can happen, but the Rams don't command the most money, that would be the Packers.

The latest update we get from Westgate shows the betting tickets to win the SuperBowl, in order from most to least, to be LA, Minny, GB, SF, and NO.

When it comes to money on teams to win the Superbowl, Westgate reports, in order from most to least, to be GB, LA, NE, Minny, Atl.

This is as I hear it today. Sorry, there are no links to give for reference although I'm sure the info is out there somewhere, or will be by days end...

Really nothing for the NFL win totals. Not yet. I'll dig around and probably should start looking at that a bit, but those futures can be tough.

I like to play market in front of me. That said, those futures matter at one point in the season, they come in to play like option contracts on expiration, so it could be a smart investment.
I'll see what I can find.

**danshan11** · 08-12-18, 10:34 AM

MY CFL Lines for this week

date	Team	odds	my line
	Team
8/17	Redblacks		54
8/17	Blue Bombers		-6
8/18	Lions		53
8/18	Argonauts		-3
8/18	Alouettes		49.5
8/18	Eskimos		-16
8/19	Stampeders		-7
8/19	Roughriders		50

**KVB** · 08-13-18, 11:16 AM

CFL Sharp Forecast Fund made it's buys and published.

The lines are once again pressing towards the forecast in all the games.

Right now the sharp forecast is 14-0-2 against the closing line.

**danshan11** · 08-13-18, 11:38 AM

where and where do we see these picks?

**KVB** · 08-13-18, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

where and where do we see these picks?

The KVB CFL Sharp Forecast Fund

Most recent trades

Most recent results

**danshan11** · 08-13-18, 12:07 PM

you know what would really impress me if you posted your next weeks lines BEFORE they came out

**danshan11** · 08-13-18, 12:07 PM

you posting lines before they are released will definitely show how good your model is!

**KVB** · 08-13-18, 12:13 PM

Bought the plays, then posted them. First strike at the Greek, then hit after other houses opened.

Will watch Vegas when they pick up the line as well.

**danshan11** · 08-13-18, 12:24 PM

I think it would be a great boost to see your lines BEFORE lines come out anywhere, that would be awesome, did you look at my lines I posted before anything came out, what did you think?

**KVB** · 08-13-18, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I think it would be a great boost to see your lines BEFORE lines come out anywhere, that would be awesome, did you look at my lines I posted before anything came out, what did you think?

In the past I have posted the Forecast on game day, with the write ups.

This is the first year I've posted my opening buys, but still wait for the actual forecast.

The plays are posted minutes after the first openers, even before Pinny gets them, so that's not bad for the Forum.

For many reasons, some we are stilling analyzing the market over, I can't put the whole forecast out Sunday night, I need to get my plays first.

I think you can see why.

In fact, I may not be posting the CFL Sharp Forecast Fund plays going forward, and again the thread may have to wait until the write up to see the numbers, we will see.

I thought your numbers would be more in line with the stacking percentages forecast but the stacking forecast is looking more like the sharp forecast for most games.

This week your forecast looks a bit more like it's between the non predictive public gauge and the forecasts. This doesn't mean much really, some of these numbers can fly around when we hit CFL game extremes while other numbers stay steady as a rock.

I will post some other numbers as well and we'll see where the market lines up for all of us.

How have your numbers been doing so far? Winning bets? Close to the openers? Close to the game results?

Glad you are in the house Dan, this thread will be a fun one for you, I hope.

**danshan11** · 08-13-18, 12:46 PM

I am killing the win losses which mean nothing to me hitting nearly 65% for the season but 2 problems sample size and low line value with the CLV high margin hard to beat

date	Team	my line	paid	closed	*WL
6/29	Blue Bombers	0.5	4.5	5	L
6/29	Tiger Cats	54	58.5	59	W
7/7	Argonauts	2	5	3	W
7/7	Lions	54	56.5	56.5	L
7/12	Stampeders	-4	-3	-2.5	W
7/19	Roughriders	5	11	10.5	W
7/21	Argonauts	53.5	50.5	52	W
7/21	Stampeders	-24	-19.5	-19.5	L
7/26	Eskimos	-10	-7.5	-10	W
7/27	Argonauts	8	10.5	10	L
7/28	Roughriders	51.5	47.5	47.5	W
8/2	Argonauts	54	48.5	48.5	W
8/3	Tiger Cats	-10	-6	-7	W
8/4	Lions	54	50.5	50	L
8/9	Eskimos	-5	-3		L
8/10	Tiger Cats	2	6	6	P
8/10	Blue Bombers	54.5	57.5	57.5	W

**danshan11** · 08-13-18, 12:49 PM

and the lines are not put in on this sheet but the line value is + but just barely above the margin so it will win but just barely and definitely not at 65% for long LOL

**Hngkng** · 08-15-18, 12:49 PM

Johnny Manziel held out of practice due to concussion symptoms

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 01:06 PM

I've seen some money come in on Edmonton, pressing the already high 16.5.

Pinny making a slight price adjustment, taking the favorite off of even.

**danshan11** · 08-15-18, 01:07 PM

yeah no doubt he got rocked last week, he might need more than twitter to fix that head hit, he looked hurt

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

yeah no doubt he got rocked last week, he might need more than twitter to fix that head hit, he looked hurt

TV guys noticed too.

**danshan11** · 08-15-18, 01:14 PM

I have 49.5 before the Manziel injury and I usually need 3 or more to bet it so I am going to now take the under 53 in that game right now

**danshan11** · 08-15-18, 01:16 PM

I use the CFL as a model tuneup for my NFL season, I dont take it too serious just use it as a tool for the NFL because CFL margins are high and hard to beat!

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I have 49.5 before the Manziel injury and I usually need 3 or more to bet it so I am going to now take the under 53 in that game right now

Interesting event based play.

Seeing the Pinny price change towards the Under now.

Does CFL have NFL like rules in place where there is a minimum time before coming back?

Or can Johnny Football join in at the last minute?