RLM System Plays

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  • R19
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-31-11
    • 433

    #421
    Originally posted by moshi
    What about wisc/indy? Opens at -7 wisc with 70+% on indy yet the line moves to -8?!?
    Looking at it. What does everyone think about a favorite that has the public on the other side like this?
    Comment
    • crockje
      SBR Sharp
      • 01-03-11
      • 384

      #422
      Originally posted by R19
      Definitely. wiseguy007 and Night-Tripper. What do you think about setting a max spread to qualify? I reviewed since Saturday and I believe that there is a correlation. 6:30 PM ET. And open to suggestions from everyone. Let's get this moving target dialed in and keep working on it.
      r19 what was your record with adjusting out high spreads without at least a point movement?
      Comment
      • crockje
        SBR Sharp
        • 01-03-11
        • 384

        #423
        Originally posted by R19
        Looking at it. What does everyone think about a favorite that has the public on the other side like this?
        should still be a play.....although something is really fishy about that line might be one of those that we use our heads and stay away from
        Comment
        • PAULYPOKER
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-06-08
          • 36581

          #424
          You guys are broadcasting a profitable capping strategy over the internet,don't be fukking stupid,keep it on a down low...

          This is not rocket science............
          Comment
          • wiseguy007
            SBR Sharp
            • 01-20-12
            • 444

            #425
            UPDATE

            Games to Watch 1/26/12

            Based on this:

            1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

            2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

            3. Using only opening Lines from

            http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them

            to our book.


            NCAAB

            7:00pm 543 Nebraska Cornhuskers OPEN +6.5 NOW +4.5

            7:00pm 546 Mississippi Rebels OPEN +6 NOW +5

            8:00pm 554 Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix OPEN +1.5 NOW +1

            8:00pm 559 Troy Trojans +18.5 NOW +17

            10:00pm 576 CS Northridge Matadors OPEN +7 NOW +6

            11:00pm 596 Portland Pilots OPEN +15.5 NOW +15


            YTD: 22-16-1 58%
            Comment
            • R19
              SBR Sharp
              • 10-31-11
              • 433

              #426
              Originally posted by crockje
              should still be a play.....although something is really fishy about that line might be one of those that we use our heads and stay away from
              (Never mind. I picked up the wrong comment to respond to.)
              Last edited by R19; 01-27-12, 05:01 PM.
              Comment
              • wiseguy007
                SBR Sharp
                • 01-20-12
                • 444

                #427
                Originally posted by R19
                Definitely. wiseguy007 and Night-Tripper. What do you think about setting a max spread to qualify? I reviewed since Saturday and I believe that there is a correlation.

                6:30 PM ET. And open to suggestions from everyone. Let's get this moving target dialed in and keep working on it.
                Im open to that, my a max of 8-9pts for NCAAB.

                What did you come up with from the adjustment?
                Comment
                • robinhood
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 09-12-09
                  • 916

                  #428
                  The guy who brought up % of line movement earlier was absolutely correct. Too lazy to go back and see who that was but I meant to give him props.
                  Comment
                  • robinhood
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-12-09
                    • 916

                    #429
                    LOL. I love the guy on ESPNU who said "I don't think anybody expected 30 points from either team at the half". What a square
                    Comment
                    • Night-Tripper
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-14-09
                      • 3205

                      #430
                      Originally posted by R19
                      Looking at it. What does everyone think about a favorite that has the public on the other side like this?
                      I played it. RLM is RLM.

                      Wife turned it in while I was driving to work.
                      Comment
                      • crockje
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 01-03-11
                        • 384

                        #431
                        Originally posted by wiseguy007
                        Im open to that, my a max of 8-9pts for NCAAB. What did you come up with from the adjustment?
                        I looked back thru the records since 1/22 when we made the change to 15pts max including nba we are 4-3 when line is over 8.5 pts and 2-2 just ncabb. So maybe we need to get a much bigger sample before we make that change?
                        Comment
                        • R19
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 10-31-11
                          • 433

                          #432
                          Originally posted by crockje
                          r19 what was your record with adjusting out high spreads without at least a point movement?
                          Starting today.
                          Comment
                          • R19
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 10-31-11
                            • 433

                            #433
                            Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                            You guys are broadcasting a profitable capping strategy over the internet,don't be fukking stupid,keep it on a down low...

                            This is not rocket science............
                            Don't think we are breaking any secrets here although we each could be more discreet about our adjustments going forward.
                            Comment
                            • R19
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 10-31-11
                              • 433

                              #434
                              Originally posted by wiseguy007
                              Im open to that, my a max of 8-9pts for NCAAB.

                              What did you come up with from the adjustment?
                              I started filtering from 10, 9, then 8 and looking at the track record since Saturday. Yes it's limited data, yes data mining, but no capping on top of RLM. And I saw the winning percentage improve.
                              Comment
                              • chinoloco212
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-24-11
                                • 1095

                                #435
                                heres a suggestiion since some players are stronger than others i feel, so say for example a play has over 5000 bets with over 70% or so we should make that 2 units, doesnt have to be those exact figures but yea ya get the drift cause i feel the the Highest bet gaems with the reverse line movement hit at a greater rate just a suggstion, what do you guys think?
                                Comment
                                • wiseguy007
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 01-20-12
                                  • 444

                                  #436
                                  Originally posted by wiseguy007
                                  UPDATE

                                  Games to Watch 1/26/12

                                  Based on this:

                                  1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

                                  2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

                                  3. Using only opening Lines from

                                  http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them

                                  to our book.


                                  NCAAB

                                  7:00pm 543 Nebraska Cornhuskers OPEN +6.5 NOW +4.5

                                  7:00pm 546 Mississippi Rebels OPEN +6 NOW +5

                                  8:00pm 554 Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix OPEN -1.5 NOW -1 (ADJUSTED)

                                  8:00pm 559 Troy Trojans +18.5 NOW +17

                                  10:00pm 576 CS Northridge Matadors OPEN +7 NOW +6

                                  11:00pm 596 Portland Pilots OPEN +15.5 NOW +15


                                  YTD: 22-16-1 58%
                                  ADDING

                                  10:00pm 626 Sacramento State Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +8.5
                                  Last edited by wiseguy007; 01-26-12, 09:08 PM.
                                  Comment
                                  • robinhood
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 09-12-09
                                    • 916

                                    #437
                                    Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                    You guys are broadcasting a profitable capping strategy over the internet,don't be fukking stupid,keep it on a down low...

                                    This is not rocket science............

                                    Wrong! As long as you breathe you should strive to help as many as you can. Your attitude is why this world is so f'd up right now.

                                    I think Nebraska being the signature win tonight gives this system some hope. Of course, now that we're basically posting our ideas to the bookies, what is to stop them from RLM'ing bets on air just to throw us off?

                                    Always be flexible in your strategy while recognizing what can work.

                                    Comment
                                    • Night-Tripper
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-14-09
                                      • 3205

                                      #438
                                      Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                      Due to schedule, I'm placing these now...
                                      Nebraska
                                      Mississippi
                                      Cal Riverside
                                      Cal State Northridge
                                      USC
                                      Portland
                                      Added:
                                      Wisconsin
                                      Eastern Washington
                                      Comment
                                      • DonWon
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 12-16-11
                                        • 46

                                        #439
                                        Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                        Added:
                                        Wisconsin
                                        Eastern Washington
                                        Mad late
                                        Comment
                                        • coleman50
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 02-23-11
                                          • 3

                                          #440
                                          Originally posted by robinhood
                                          Wrong! As long as you breathe you should strive to help as many as you can. Your attitude is why this world is so f'd up right now.

                                          I think Nebraska being the signature win tonight gives this system some hope. Of course, now that we're basically posting our ideas to the bookies, what is to stop them from RLM'ing bets on air just to throw us off?

                                          Always be flexible in your strategy while recognizing what can work.

                                          because the majority of money is still on the other side
                                          Comment
                                          • Night-Tripper
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-14-09
                                            • 3205

                                            #441
                                            Originally posted by R19
                                            Definitely. wiseguy007 and Night-Tripper. What do you think about setting a max spread to qualify? I reviewed since Saturday and I believe that there is a correlation.

                                            6:30 PM ET. And open to suggestions from everyone. Let's get this moving target dialed in and keep working on it.
                                            Y'all are more than welcome to tweak, limit and adjust as much as you like... this is y'alls thread. However, I am going to continue to truck along with what I'm doing.

                                            In my opinion, there is a limit to what tweaking will accomplish. Limiting lines can only do so much... before you start severely limiting your profits. I don't care if a line is 5 or 20. While there aren't as many 20 point dogs that are outright winners, there are also 5 point dogs that get blown out by as many points as the huge dogs. For example... an 8 point limit would have cost you an outright win on the Raptors last night.

                                            This is a system and it is never going to be foolproof. But, give it a try and post your results/findings... just don't be critical of those who have different prerequisites. No matter how tight the paramaters are... we're all still going to have losers.

                                            I like what y'all are doing with this thread!
                                            Comment
                                            • Night-Tripper
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-14-09
                                              • 3205

                                              #442
                                              Originally posted by DonWon
                                              Mad late
                                              No... made before tipoff... posted late. I am working Nights this week and I do not get my laptop hooked up until after I've taken care of my job-related paperwork is done, which is usually between 1930 and 2000 CDT.
                                              Comment
                                              • Night-Tripper
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-14-09
                                                • 3205

                                                #443
                                                Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                                You guys are broadcasting a profitable capping strategy over the internet,don't be fukking stupid,keep it on a down low...

                                                This is not rocket science............
                                                If dozer hadn't decided to start charging for plays, or offering to give a webinar for 25,000 to teach people the method, this thread wouldn't exist. I'm not interested in being the only one winning... I'd like to see as many people collecting as possible. Besides, their winnings isn't taking any cash out of my pocket.
                                                Comment
                                                • Night-Tripper
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-14-09
                                                  • 3205

                                                  #444
                                                  Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                                  Due to schedule, I'm placing these now...
                                                  Nebraska
                                                  Mississippi
                                                  Cal Riverside
                                                  Cal State Northridge
                                                  USC
                                                  Portland
                                                  Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                                  Added:
                                                  Wisconsin
                                                  Eastern Washington
                                                  Added Grizzlies +4/715
                                                  Grizzlies +150/200
                                                  Comment
                                                  • R19
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 10-31-11
                                                    • 433

                                                    #445
                                                    Originally posted by wiseguy007
                                                    Im open to that, my a max of 8-9pts for NCAAB.

                                                    What did you come up with from the adjustment?
                                                    I think that this can be re-visited over and over as the sample set grows and would like to do/see the impact of filtering on percent line movement.

                                                    Basically, I just wrote out all the plays that I took and started making a note of the daily track record as each adjustment was made.

                                                    I have been getting crushed on Lang and Quinn fades of late so I am fine if my restrictions on plays are a bit data mined. Once a get back on track, I can consider more aggressive adjustments.

                                                    *** I think a huge factor is whether one is capping over RLM or not. I think the RLM qualifiers should be tighter if there is no capping overlay,
                                                    Last edited by R19; 01-27-12, 02:25 AM.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • wiseguy007
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 01-20-12
                                                      • 444

                                                      #446
                                                      UPDATE

                                                      NCAAB

                                                      7:00pm 543 Nebraska Cornhuskers OPEN +6.5 NOW +4.5 W

                                                      7:00pm 546 Mississippi Rebels OPEN +6 NOW +5 W

                                                      8:00pm 554 Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix OPEN -1.5 NOW -1 W

                                                      8:00pm 559 Troy Trojans +18.5 NOW +17 W

                                                      10:00pm 576 CS Northridge Matadors OPEN +7 NOW +6 W

                                                      10:00pm 626 Sacramento State Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +8.5 L

                                                      11:00pm 596 Portland Pilots OPEN +15.5 NOW +15 W


                                                      RECORD FOR 1/26/12: 6-1

                                                      2 DAY TOTAL: 13-3 81%

                                                      YTD: 28-17-1 62%
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Night-Tripper
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-14-09
                                                        • 3205

                                                        #447
                                                        Originally posted by wiseguy007
                                                        UPDATE

                                                        NCAAB

                                                        7:00pm 543 Nebraska Cornhuskers OPEN +6.5 NOW +4.5 W

                                                        7:00pm 546 Mississippi Rebels OPEN +6 NOW +5 W

                                                        8:00pm 554 Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix OPEN -1.5 NOW -1 W

                                                        8:00pm 559 Troy Trojans +18.5 NOW +17 W

                                                        10:00pm 576 CS Northridge Matadors OPEN +7 NOW +6 W

                                                        10:00pm 626 Sacramento State Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +8.5 L

                                                        11:00pm 596 Portland Pilots OPEN +15.5 NOW +15 W


                                                        RECORD FOR 1/26/12: 6-1

                                                        2 DAY TOTAL: 13-3 81%

                                                        YTD: 28-17-1 62%
                                                        Damn fine job!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • wiseguy007
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 01-20-12
                                                          • 444

                                                          #448
                                                          Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                                          Damn fine job!
                                                          Thanks my friend.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • crockje
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 01-03-11
                                                            • 384

                                                            #449
                                                            Originally posted by wiseguy007
                                                            UPDATE NCAAB 7:00pm 543 Nebraska Cornhuskers OPEN +6.5 NOW +4.5 W 7:00pm 546 Mississippi Rebels OPEN +6 NOW +5 W 8:00pm 554 Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix OPEN -1.5 NOW -1 W 8:00pm 559 Troy Trojans +18.5 NOW +17 W 10:00pm 576 CS Northridge Matadors OPEN +7 NOW +6 W 10:00pm 626 Sacramento State Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +8.5 L 11:00pm 596 Portland Pilots OPEN +15.5 NOW +15 W RECORD FOR 1/26/12: 6-1 2 DAY TOTAL: 13-3 81% YTD: 28-17-1 62%
                                                            This is lights out hope we can continue it around 60%
                                                            Comment
                                                            • therocket
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 01-08-12
                                                              • 869

                                                              #450
                                                              Nice work!!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • joeythelip23
                                                                SBR Hustler
                                                                • 09-27-11
                                                                • 57

                                                                #451
                                                                Well done guys!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Sourbumpy
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 12-25-11
                                                                  • 85

                                                                  #452
                                                                  Originally posted by wiseguy007
                                                                  Thanks my friend.
                                                                  ... keep up the good work
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mrtsummit
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 02-23-11
                                                                    • 349

                                                                    #453
                                                                    Thanks for all the input !!! Keep up the good work, very informative.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Automoto
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 01-09-12
                                                                      • 252

                                                                      #454
                                                                      Originally posted by wiseguy007
                                                                      ADDING

                                                                      10:00pm 626 Sacramento State Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +8.5
                                                                      Does the .5 point reverse have to occur across ALL books? Are you targeting games where the minority % is the betting favorite (The point spread goes UP from +3.5 to +4.5 on a team with only 28% total wagers on it, for example).
                                                                      Last edited by Automoto; 01-27-12, 12:23 PM. Reason: Formula misread
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • FadeThat
                                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                                        • 01-24-12
                                                                        • 14

                                                                        #455
                                                                        Originally posted by Automoto
                                                                        Does the .5 point reverse have to occur across ALL books? Are you targeting games where the minority % is the betting favorite (The point spread goes UP from +3.5 to +4.5 on a team with only 28% total wagers on it, for example).

                                                                        RLM is targeting the plays that are public underdogs (majority of bets made on other side, at 63% and higher), specifically when the line moves in a disadvantage for the underdog.

                                                                        Example:

                                                                        Team A opens at +5 against Team B
                                                                        If, say, 80% of bets are placed on Team B, and the line moves such that Team A is now +4, that is considered a play.
                                                                        Comment
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