1/21
7:00
Toledo/Ohio o141.5
7:00
Toledo/Ohio o141.5
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GL bud!!Comment -
7:00
Florida/LSU u143
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1/22
VMI/Wofford o138.5
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I had a hard look at this game but 138.5 looked TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE.. besides low tempo for the game, Wofford spread of -13 (looks inflated though) also indicates something amiss in VMI camp, Doubt they will score 64 point, But Hey I might be wrong for all you know.. GLComment -
Dig a little deeper on the tempo. The VMI coach has been there since 2016. In the 9 games played since he arrived, the average number of possessions is 70.2 (high of 77, low of 64). Wofford’s coach is in his first season as a head coach, but he was on Mike Young’s staff for several years and doesn’t appear to have changed much.
So why the higher than expected number of possessions when Wofford is notoriously a slower team? Simple. VMI’s defense sucks. They are consistently bottom 1/3 in defensive efficiency and are down there again this year. While Wofford is a slower team, they will run opportunistically. Against a poor defense, that translates to shorter possession times, which translates to more possessions over the course of the game.
Other aspects I like are Wofford’s 3 point % at home (42%) and VMI’s poor 3 point defense. You’re right that VMI will need to contribute here. Fortunately, they are a very good 3 point shooting team (36%), and Wofford allows teams to score an above average percentage of their points from deep.
Just a few of the other things I look at while trying to find an advantage. I try not to get hung up on a number being too good to be true. That stuff will drive you crazy.Comment -
Probably it for the day:
8:30
Providence/Seton Hall o137
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Final add:
7:00
Georgia Tech/Louisville u132.5
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I always struggle deciding to go with your picks or taking all of the ten point plus differentials that are up for grabs for the day.
What do you think will earn more money by end of season ?Comment -
Man I wish I knew. The model has taken some lumps the last week or so. For better or worse, it looks like my numbers are getting closer to the posted lines.
if you look back at post #381, I posted my records for the two previous threads I’ve done (one of them is linked in the first post here, and the other thread is linked in that thread). I was in the black both of those seasons, and combined with this year I have hit right at 55%. Since this is the first season I have used this model, I unfortunately can’t give that same kind of history using just the 10+.
The way things have gone the last week, I wouldn’t find fault with anyone cutting back on volume. At least until things start looking up a bit.Comment -
I know the feeling. Two nights ago I had resigned myself to playing the Duke under, but wanted to wait until the morning to double check a couple of things. The line moved down, so I passed. I think it was as high at 151, but it closed at 147. Ended on 148. No matter what those bastards do, it’s annoying as hell.Comment -
Just curious
Your model shows the seton hall game to go under by 8...yet you chose to take the over...? Is this a first?Comment -
1-1-1 -.1u
YTD: 91-71 +13.13u
Jan: 39-33 +2.2u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
I think my last winning day was 9 days ago. Just awful right now. Hope some folks got a better line on the Seton Hall game and had a winning night.Comment -
1/23
8:00
South Alabama/Arkansas St o133.5
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1/24
7:00
Niagara/Monmouth o142
I’m considering one other, but need the line to move.Comment -
1/25
12:00
Missouri/West Virginia u134
1:00
Mercer/VMI o142
2:00
Nebraska/Rutgers u142.5
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What’s the opinion on buying the hook? It seems over the years I’ve lost a lot of games by .5 point. I usually buy itComment -
I’m very much opposed to buying points on totals. Let’s say a total is 140. Half a point is ~.3% of that total, but you’re paying nearly 10% for that half point. That’s one reason.
A second reason is that when you go from -110 lines to -120 lines, your break even % goes from 52.4% to 54.5%. That’s a big difference in this game, so I would have to see data that says your probability of winning goes up >2% to justify the expense.Comment -
I expect I’ll have more plays later today. I got through the 3:00 games last night and I’ll pick up there after a run, etc.Comment -
Keep up the great work. I appreciate what you are doing!Comment -
Good luck today.
So many games to handicap today.
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This is up to the 6:00 games. I'll try to get to the rest later.
4:30
Robert Morris/LIU o144.5
5:00
Morehead St/Jacksonville St o135.5
BYU/San Francisco u149
5:15
Arkansas St/Troy o141
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