Mostly totals

[bigbluemist]

It goes without saying the picks are fantastic!

I enjoy reading the analysis that goes into it.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/14

7:00

Ball St/Eastern Michigan o124.5

8:00

Iowa/Northwestern u144

Might have more later.

[HeeluvaGuy]

It goes without saying the picks are fantastic!

I enjoy reading the analysis that goes into it.

Time permitting, I’ll give an example of some of true things I look at “behind the scenes” using today’s plays. I know some folks are just interested in the picks, which is fine and understandable, but I know when I’m looking at other people’s picks it’s nice to know their methodology. I have done more of that in the past on here and we’ve had some good discussions.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Interesting tweet here that touches on something doubledime asked about:

https://twitter.com/johngasaway/status/1217077357309235201?s=21

[steel26]

Hey where is the link to the table?

[BOA12]

Hey where is the link to the table?

Go back to page 1 of this thread. about middle of page. Just logged on myself.

[doubledime]

Interesting tweet here that touches on something doubledime asked about:

https://twitter.com/johngasaway/stat...309235201?s=21

[HeeluvaGuy]

Just the two plays tonight. Didn’t have time to write them up. Maybe tomorrow.

[steel26]

Ok got. It thanks. These is truly gold

[BagelBoy]

Terrible first half from E Mich - You were on the right side. Unlucky

[HeeluvaGuy]

Terrible first half from E Mich - You were on the right side. Unlucky

They combined to go 23-46 from the FT line. Can't handicap that nonsense.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/14

7:00

Ball St/Eastern Michigan o124.5

8:00

Iowa/Northwestern u144

1-1 -.1u
YTD: 83-55 +22.73u
Jan: 31-17 +11.8u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u

[HeeluvaGuy]

Running behind today. Will get to this as soon as I can.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/15

7:00
Navy/Lehigh o123.5

8:00
Xavier/Marquette u144.5

9:00
New Mexico/Colorado St u153

[bigbluemist]

Is that Navy-Lehigh?

My book has Army-Holy Cross 143.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

Is that Navy-Lehigh?

My book has Army-Holy Cross 143.5

Should have been Navy/Lehigh o123.5. Sorry about the mix up and thanks for catching that. I looked at that Army game for a while, so it must have stuck in my head. Fixed now.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Two additions that aren’t from the 10+ differential games:

8:00

Stephen F. Austin/Central Arkansas o155.5
South Dakota/NDSU o142.5 (Rotation #833)

[Mackballs]

Your plays are so solid man, you get no luck at all.

South Dakota game can't get to ot cuz of a last second layup and the kid misses the ft to hit the over....and then SFA game tied with a few seconds left and can't get to ot either....losing both of those just no luck at all.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Getting roughed up tonight. All the breaks went the wrong way. Lost the South Dakota game by the hook on a layup with 1 second to go in a tie game. Needed 3 points in the last 1:09 in that one and they scored 2.

Lost the SFA game by 3. Game was tied at 76 and a foul was called with 2 seconds left.

Lost Marquette thanks to 13 points in the final 1:13 in a 20 point game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Oh, and Colorado State shot 11-16 from three in the first half. That's roughly double their season average.

[jimm246]

Oh, and Colorado State shot 11-16 from three in the first half. That's roughly double their season average.

I feel you brother nothing's going our way today but we'll bounce back.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/15

7:00
Navy/Lehigh o123.5

8:00
Xavier/Marquette u144.5

9:00
New Mexico/Colorado St u153

8:00

Stephen F. Austin/Central Arkansas o155.5
South Dakota/NDSU o142.5 (Rotation #833)

1-4 -3.4u
YTD: 84-59 +19.33u
Jan: 32-21 +8.4u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Miserable night. Late game is still going on, but as of right now CSU is 18-27 from three. Can't say I've ever seen that.

[cmatth1326]

That sucked. One bad beat is hard enough to handle, but multiple in one night is rough. Why can’t I have a night with multiple good breaks in a night? I guess that’s why they call it gambling.

[jimm246]

That's half the story if New Mexico would just play better defense also letting the other team score 50% for the field and 60ish percent 3s. new Mexico I hate you

[bigbluemist]

The Marquette game was a SVP, “Bad beat.” That last minute + was insane.

[HeeluvaGuy]

The Marquette game was a SVP, “Bad beat.” That last minute + was insane.

At least we won something?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Note: My bad luck with the totals carried over into my real life last night. One of my accounts was hacked. Huge pain, but will survive. Just be careful in case the bad luck isn’t finished with me yet.

1/16

7:00

Stetson/North Alabama o129.5
Quinnipiac/Manhattan o132

8:00

Bakersfield/UMKC o130.5

[bigbluemist]

GL today

[HeeluvaGuy]

GL today

Thanks. We are proof that UNC and UK fans can peacefully coexist.

[bigbluemist]

Thanks. We are proof that UNC and UK fans can peacefully coexist.

Exactly. Lived in NC for close to 4 years in early to mid 90’s. Love the NC mountains

[jimm246]

Yes we got an overtime that went our way

[HeeluvaGuy]

1/16

7:00

Stetson/North Alabama o129.5
Quinnipiac/Manhattan o132

8:00

Bakersfield/UMKC o130.5

1-2 -1.2u
YTD: 85-61 +18.13u
Jan: 33-23 +7.2u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Happy to get some luck in the Bakersfield game. Need to do better though.

[bigbluemist]

1-2 -1.2u
YTD: 85-61 +18.13u
Jan: 33-23 +7.2u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Happy to get some luck in the Bakersfield game. Need to do better though.

Had a little tough luck the night before so it’s evened out a little.

Both teams in the Manhattan game shot under 40%. You’d think they’d be in the low to mid 40’s which would have made it a winner.

[BOA12]

1-2 -1.2u
YTD: 85-61 +18.13u
Jan: 33-23 +7.2u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Happy to get some luck in the Bakersfield game. Need to do better though.

Doing fine by me HGuy. To a big weekend .

[HeeluvaGuy]

Had a little tough luck the night before so it’s evened out a little.

Both teams in the Manhattan game shot under 40%. You’d think they’d be in the low to mid 40’s which would have made it a winner.

It was actually worse than that if you break it down by 2, 3, and FT percentages. Quinnipiac was just 9-26 (34.6%) on 2-point shots. That’s over 10% lower than their season average. Likewise, Manhattan was 8-19 from the FT line, which is about 20% below their average.

At a high level, there are three ways to lose a total: (1) be wrong about the pace, (2) be wrong about efficiency, or (3) a combination of the two. For this game I predicted 68 possessions. There were actually 70, so the pace was actually better than I predicted.

Efficiency (or lack thereof) is what killed this play. The two main components that go into efficiency are (1) turnovers, and (2) shooting. Here, there weren’t a lot of turnovers, so this loss is almost 100% on shooting, specifically the two stats above.

I have always said that shooting percentage is the part of this I struggle the most with. As a result, many of my losses can be attributed to poor shooting. I would love one day to create a volatility index for teams to get a sense of what teams perform more erratically and which teams are more reliable from an efficiency standpoint. Maybe over the summer...