Mostly totals
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BOA12SBR Posting Legend
- 02-19-12
- 20622
#281Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#2831/10
7:00
Niagara/Quinnipiac o146
Not much to choose from today. I already have my numbers for Saturday up on the spreadsheet, but lines obviously aren’t out yet.
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#2851/11
12:00
Alabama/Kentucky u153
2:00
Creighton/Xavier u143
2:15
Wisconsin/Penn St u135
4:00
Old Dominion/Charlotte o115
UNC Wilmington/Elon o136
Morgan St/Florida A&M o139
Norfolk St/Howard o137
6:30
Jackson St/Alcorn St o138
8:00
Oklahoma/Iowa St u150.5
Chicago St/UTRGV o146
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BagelBoySBR Rookie
- 12-19-19
- 20
#286OMG Creighton game almost lost 120 Total with 50 seconds left. 10 point game...Unreal.Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#2881/11
12:00
Alabama/Kentucky u153
2:00
Creighton/Xavier u143
2:15
Wisconsin/Penn St u135
4:00
Old Dominion/Charlotte o115
UNC Wilmington/Elon o136
Morgan St/Florida A&M o139
Norfolk St/Howard o137
6:30
Jackson St/Alcorn St o138
8:00
Oklahoma/Iowa St u150.5
Chicago St/UTRGV o146
YTD: 79-54 +19.83u
Probably won't have lines or picks up for Sunday until late morning.Comment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#291Well done SirComment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#292Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#2931/12
Noon
Mich St/Purdue u136
2:00
Siena/Manhattan o130
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loveofsportsSBR High Roller
- 07-11-15
- 199
#294Pmd youComment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#295Really appreciate all of the kind words here and in PMs. Yesterday was pretty incredible for the model. The 10+ differential totals ended up 26-11, and I’m very happy that my picks were able to beat that on a percentage basis.
I don’t say this to brag, however. Rather, I want to remind everyone to use caution. The season is going really well, but we all know that it’s probably not realistic to run 60% all season. I’ll do my best, but I think we need to be prepared for some hiccups.
BOL today to all!
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bigbluemistSBR High Roller
- 04-06-11
- 121
#296GL today!Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#298I'm not really an NFL guy, but I dabble in props. There's pretty good value on Russell Wilson to throw an interception (+140). It's rotation #6707.Comment -
steel26SBR Hustler
- 11-14-12
- 53
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#300
Basically look at how each team's possessions per game compares to the Division I average. Then I have a multiplier that I use to take out an observed bias. Not part of the model numbers, but I also look at average offensive and defensive possession lengths as a bit of a cross check.
The model predicted possessions is not perfect and doesn't account for every possible input, but it's pretty accurate. I try to pick up the other variables when I do my secondary analysis.
Thanks for stopping by.Comment -
BetThenSweatSBR MVP
- 02-24-14
- 2978
#301Basically look at how each team's possessions per game compares to the Division I average. Then I have a multiplier that I use to take out an observed bias. Not part of the model numbers, but I also look at average offensive and defensive possession lengths
The model predicted possessions is not perfect and doesn't account for every possible input, but it's pretty accurate. I try to pick up the other variables when I do my secondary analysis.
Thanks for stopping by.Comment -
loveofsportsSBR High Roller
- 07-11-15
- 199
#302
It can be found here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1365386493
But, Project total is 132.9
Prject poss 70.8
Projected score Arizona 66.3- Oregon State 66.6Comment -
BetThenSweatSBR MVP
- 02-24-14
- 2978
#303It can be found here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1365386493
But, Project total is 132.9
Prject poss 70.8
Projected score Arizona 66.3- Oregon State 66.6Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#3051/13
7:30
South Carolina St/Howard o146
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BagelBoySBR Rookie
- 12-19-19
- 20
#306Great work this week - thank you for the plays - Keep it up - Cheers.Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#307Thanks. I’ll keep plugging away, but it’s going to be tough to duplicate the last week.
Your post prompted me to look back and see what December looked like versus January. I like the way Ayo does that in his thread, so I’m going to try to copy him. Keep me honest if I screw it up.
YTD: 81-54 +21.83u
Jan: 29-16 +10.9u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93uComment -
BOA12SBR Posting Legend
- 02-19-12
- 20622
#308Thanks. I’ll keep plugging away, but it’s going to be tough to duplicate the last week.
Your post prompted me to look back and see what December looked like versus January. I like the way Ayo does that in his thread, so I’m going to try to copy him. Keep me honest if I screw it up.
YTD: 81-54 +21.83u
Jan: 29-16 +10.9u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93uAnd toast.
Comment -
cmatth1326SBR Wise Guy
- 11-18-08
- 761
#309Dang sportsbook doesn’t have that total.Comment -
coolguy73739SBR MVP
- 01-11-16
- 1677
#311Are you taking League average of all 353 teams for your calculation or individual team's conference average?
Thanks in advance..Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#312
Pace is actually pretty predictable because coaches have preferred styles and they teach their teams to play that style. When you get complementary styles, it gets even more predictable. In other words, two fast teams will typically play a game well above the average number of possessions. It gets more difficult when you have a UNC vs. Virginia kind of matchup with contrasting styles. But the really hard part is trying to predict efficiencies...Comment -
coolguy73739SBR MVP
- 01-11-16
- 1677
#313Thanks for your prompt reply. Really appreciate..
One more thing..
Do you take PACE ADJUSTED data in your calculations for Efficiency?
PAce adjusted data differs from average..Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#314Pace adjusted. I have used efficiencies for many years, but this is the first year that I have tried to predict where the scoring will come from (2, 3, or FT). I think that has helped a lot. Like with pace, if you have a team that gets to the FT line a lot playing a team that fouls a lot, you start to get at least one fairly predictable piece of the puzzle.Comment -
coolguy73739SBR MVP
- 01-11-16
- 1677
#315Thanks Bud..
Ya, the PUZZLE.. rightly said..
Thanks for the input and Good luck for the season.
You already doing Fantastic..Comment
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