LTA's NBA Plays

[JM92]

I liked your point but I wont be able to tail you on this one. You seem to discredit the Heat a little bit too much in my opinion. They have more weapons right now than the Bulls and I actually think that, without Deng, the Heat have the better defense. They are both excelent in team defense and although I agree with you on the toughness matter, Joakim Noah right now is not playing at the level he used to and I actually think Asik is the better defender despite playing much lesser minutes. Also, like I said, if Deng doesn't go, the Bulls have only one top notch defender on the ball, that's Brewer, for both James and Wade. While on the other hand, James, Wade and Battier are three top notch defenders for the Heat, and Chicago as only got D-Rose, to say so. I do believe this might be a close game, it will have a playoff atmosphere and the Bulls will try their hearts out to win this one. But so did the Celtics, and they were basically blowout even though they made that run at the end of the game. Its a no play for me. So, good luck!

[Redscot]

Nailed that over with ease last night . Where do you have the Bulls total today LTA?

[Love The Action]

Lta u have great analysis...much respect.....but u need better picks

I'll remember that one....got some bulletin board material now. Thanks!

[Love The Action]

Nailed that over with ease last night . Where do you have the Bulls total today LTA?

I have it at 190. A much improved Bulls offense this year has me weary of the under. Last year I would have pounded it (and did). This one getting all the way up to 194 is a bit odd and I am going to lay off the total.

I like the Bulls to keep this one close. This is a big game for them and I love that everyone is on the Heat around here. The Bulls always play better as the neglected dog....

[Love The Action]

I liked your point but I wont be able to tail you on this one. You seem to discredit the Heat a little bit too much in my opinion. They have more weapons right now than the Bulls and I actually think that, without Deng, the Heat have the better defense. They are both excelent in team defense and although I agree with you on the toughness matter, Joakim Noah right now is not playing at the level he used to and I actually think Asik is the better defender despite playing much lesser minutes. Also, like I said, if Deng doesn't go, the Bulls have only one top notch defender on the ball, that's Brewer, for both James and Wade. While on the other hand, James, Wade and Battier are three top notch defenders for the Heat, and Chicago as only got D-Rose, to say so. I do believe this might be a close game, it will have a playoff atmosphere and the Bulls will try their hearts out to win this one. But so did the Celtics, and they were basically blowout even though they made that run at the end of the game. Its a no play for me. So, good luck!

Not discrediting the Heat at all. They are a great team that is wholly capable of winning this game. However, I think the Bulls look at this game a lot more importantly than the Heat do, plus this is not the playoffs. The Heat have a tendency to lay down in the regular season. I'm not saying the Heat won't win, I'm just saying that giving the Bulls 5 points in this game is too much. If it opened at 3, I would have laid off. However, I think this one ends up with someone winning by 4 or less which is why I'm rolling with the Bulls plus the points. This should be a good game that comes down to the last minute or even the last shot. GL

[JM92]

Not discrediting the Heat at all. They are a great team that is wholly capable of winning this game. However, I think the Bulls look at this game a lot more importantly than the Heat do, plus this is not the playoffs. The Heat have a tendency to lay down in the regular season. I'm not saying the Heat won't win, I'm just saying that giving the Bulls 5 points in this game is too much. If it opened at 3, I would have laid off. However, I think this one ends up with someone winning by 4 or less which is why I'm rolling with the Bulls plus the points. This should be a good game that comes down to the last minute or even the last shot. GL

Thanks for the answer. I agree with you and I so want to go with the Bulls + 4.5 as well, but what I just can't help to think Lebron/D-wade and the rest of the Heat might just go on a rampage tonight and prove they are, without a doubt, the best team in the East and probably the league.

I might just parlay a Bulls + 12 teaser with something else.

GL

[Love The Action]

Can't believe I just missed the move on the over in the Clip/Nuggz game. I got greedy hoping it would go back down to 204 and instead I missed the steam to 206. Let's see if that one won't come down a bit....

[Cinarocket]

Agree with you that Bulls are likely to keep the game close so what do you think of betting Heat -3.5 instead? (1.84) i really dislike betting vs heat this season...

[Love The Action]

Agree with you that Bulls are likely to keep the game close so what do you think of betting Heat -3.5 instead? (1.84) i really dislike betting vs heat this season...

I think you should do what you feel is best. I think a fair number in this one is 3. I would be worried about the hook there.

[Love The Action]

I apologize for this being completely off topic... but you are amazing at typing from your phone

Been posting from my phone for over a year now, so I have mastered that "swype" feature on my smartphone. That's a funny comment. Good luck today buddy.

[PREMOSIX]

i like teaser too with bulls getting 11 allday but im not sure of my 2nd pick

[alamo]

Good luck on the pick LT. Like a few on here im a bit nervous of the bulls with 5. I might just sit this one out or trade in running. Great call on that Wizards\Bobcat game. It's the kind of game that on paper meant nothing in terms of nba results but like the fact you still played it knowing that they were two good offenses with weak D.

[Love The Action]

Good luck on the pick LT. Like a few on here im a bit nervous of the bulls with 5. I might just sit this one out or trade in running. Great call on that Wizards\Bobcat game. It's the kind of game that on paper meant nothing in terms of nba results but like the fact you still played it knowing that they were two good offenses with weak D.

Good luck in whatever you choose buddy. Appreciate all the support.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/28/2012

Play #1

Bulls (+5) 1x (Locked)

This game is reminiscent of the recent Bulls/Pacers game in which the Pacers won. The reason the Pacers won was (1) better defense, (2) more toughness and (3) it meant more to them. In this game, I think all three of those factors favor the Bulls. First, although it's very difficult to stop the "big 3", the Bulls' defensive scheme is one of the few in the league that can give Miami fits. The Bulls' ability to play great team defense with pinpoint rotations on and off the ball, can force Miami into taking low percentage shots. The Bulls will need to play that tough team defense, especially without Deng who played Lebron as tough as anyone in the league. However, even though I am operating under the assumption that Deng is out, I'm now hearing that Deng might make a go of it tomorrow. Apparently, Deng is telling some guys in Chicago sports media (one of my buddies works for a Chicago sports talk radio station) that he is going to try to play because the doctors told him that the ligament is torn, can't get any worse and it's basically just a swelling/pain tolerance issue. The injury is to his non-shooting hand so it's possible. Although, you have to think his offense would be limited. Now all of this could just be bravado and the team would still have to clear him, but based on what I have heard out of Bulls camp about how important this game is to them, I would not be surprised to see Deng try to give it a go. This game is very important to the Bulls. Uniformly as a team, each one of them have said that they have had this game circled on the schedule since day 1. Much like the Pacers beat the Bulls at least partly because of revenge from last season's playoff series, I think the Bulls keep this one within the number based on their desire to seek revenge. This is especially true for Derrick Rose who does not take losing well and tends to file away losses in his memory, only to exact his revenge in the next matchup. Even though Miami will approach this as a big game, I think this game will mean more to the Bulls as the loser of last season's EC Finals. Quantitatively, this matchup is very tight. Both teams have their strengths, yet I think a few of the Bulls' strengths maches up well with Miami's stronger areas. As we know, Miami likes to win with the transition game and aggressive drives to the hoop in hopes of drawing fouls. However, the Bulls are ranked #2 in TOV% showing that they don't turn the ball over very often. In addition, the Bulls rank #1 in OFT/FGA, telling us that they are great at playing tough D without incurring a ton of fouls and putting their opponent on the FT line. Based on the stats as a whole, this is a very tight matchup and I feel as though the books are giving Miami too much credit because they playing at home. The Bulls bench will really help them in this game as their depth is the key to this matchup. CJ Watson, Asik and Gibson are going to have to come up big tomorrow and I expect them to play well against a thin Miami bench. I have this game set at +3 and I will take the bucket of value here. I'm not entirely convinced the Bulls win this game, but I am convince that this will be a great game, very competitive and come down to the last minute and perhaps the last shot to determine a winner. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bulls for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Clippers/Nuggets over (206) 1x (Locked)

Rather pissed at myself for not locking this in last night at 204 or this morning at 204.5. Sometimes we get greedy and get burned. Nevertheless, I still like this under the key number of 207. I am going to jump on 206 before my local lays the hook because I'm just not sure whether this one will drop back down and am doubtful of such a move at this point. I think this game should be fun and with CP3 finally having shaken off the rust, I expect a high-flying game tonight. Denver plays at the fastest PACE with the most possessions per game. Ty Lawson has been upgraded to probably and looks to be in the lineup tonight and he loves to push the pace and play up-tempo. The Clippers have the ability to play at a very fast pace when at their best and I expect tonight to be a very competitive game. The Clippers have played to the over 5 out of 6 times when playing with 2 days rest and I think we see them to employ a wide open and attacking offensive plan tonight. Both teams have the ability to draw fouls and even though the ref assignments are not favorable with Ayotte, Blair and Garretson, I think the sheer amount of possessions will lead to the eventual foul calls. Neither defense is playing particularly well at the moment and I think this matchup with both teams rested is set up nicely for an over play. The action is fairly split in this game with the wagers fluctuating right around the 50/50 breakpoint. I have this game set at 210 and was planning on putting multiple units on this if I could get 203, which is why I waited. At 206, I like this enough for a 1x play with a possible 0.50x addition later. I want to see where the line movement takes us but for now I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[therocket]

Love the bulls pick LTA im sprinkling on the moneyline as well. I think if the bench mob shows up the bulls can win outright. Rose is a bitter little man and will come extremely motivated and might drop 40. BOL

[SpreadSniper]

I like the over

[MattyH]

I have it at 190. A much improved Bulls offense this year has me weary of the under. Last year I would have pounded it (and did). This one getting all the way up to 194 is a bit odd and I am going to lay off the total.

I like the Bulls to keep this one close. This is a big game for them and I love that everyone is on the Heat around here. The Bulls always play better as the neglected dog....

In your write up, you say you have capped the Bulls at +3 and here you have the game total capped at 190. What do you think the final score will be? Don't you think when you make your own line that the outcome should at lease be possible?

[mikea33]

In your write up, you say you have capped the Bulls at +3 and here you have the game total capped at 190. What do you think the final score will be? Don't you think when you make your own line that the outcome should at lease be possible?

trying to pin point a final score is pointless.

[Catchn_Picks]

Just got over 204.5 on 5D LTA.

that's 1.5 points better. Added a small amount in case you up your play.

Catch

[m11chen]

Just got over 204.5 on 5D LTA.

that's 1.5 points better. Added a small amount in case you up your play.

Catch

Line is down to 205 at my book.

[Love The Action]

In your write up, you say you have capped the Bulls at +3 and here you have the game total capped at 190. What do you think the final score will be? Don't you think when you make your own line that the outcome should at lease be possible?

Ofcourse. In this case, I simply rounded out for the total when replying to Red. My model has the Heat at 96.4 and the Bulls at 93.7. Rounding out for other factors, I set the line at 3 and the total at 190.

Regardless, however, what my model produces as a number and how I set the lines are two different things. My model is based on quantitative factors alone. Each game has different qualitative factors that I take into account after the initial quantitative calculation. In this case, I think the results of my model are pretty fair even after taking into account the situational analysis.

[Love The Action]

Just got over 204.5 on 5D LTA.

that's 1.5 points better. Added a small amount in case you up your play.

Catch

Good call in waiting. I got "punk'd" by the market in that one. Didn't see that one going back down so far. Oh well, can't anticipate every single move and I still like this play at 206 which is where I anticipate this will close. Good luck.

[MattyH]

Ofcourse. In this case, I simply rounded out for the total when replying to Red. My model has the Heat at 96.4 and the Bulls at 93.7. Rounding out for other factors, I set the line at 3 and the total at 190.

Regardless, however, what my model produces as a number and how I set the lines are two different things. My model is based on quantitative factors alone. Each game has different qualitative factors that I take into account after the initial quantitative calculation. In this case, I think the results of my model are pretty fair even after taking into account the situational analysis.

oh ok! That's why your the best. I have been following (lurking) you for quite some time now and I have always respected and valued your opinions. Thanks for the insight!

[NYSportsGuy210]

I think Heat win today. I really like the Celtics to cover (-6.5) too at home.

Best of luck to you.

[absolutkaos]

how are you feeling about the IND/ORL game LTA? ORL is coming apart at the seams with major drama on the team...is the -3 justified?

[jas19illini]

I like the unders in the BOS, ORL, and NOH games. Thoughts anyone?

[Love The Action]

Damn, CJ Watson has been ruled out along with Deng. I was counting on Watson to play. The Bulls need his scoring off the bench.

I believe Hamilton will play though....

[Redscot]

Damn, CJ Watson has been ruled out along with Deng. I was counting on Watson to play. The Bulls need his scoring off the bench.

I believe Hamilton will play though....

Derek gonna have to shoulder a mighty load today, he's got the stones to do it. BOL on game bro, and hope you have a relaxing Sunday afternoon.

[Love The Action]

Derek gonna have to shoulder a mighty load today, he's got the stones to do it. BOL on game bro, and hope you have a relaxing Sunday afternoon.

Yeah, the Bulls will need a good offensive game from Boozer -- he needs 20-25 points. I hate depending on that guy to step up, but it's time he shows some pride. I expect a big defensive game from Noah, after reading some of his quotes he needs to step up. I wouldn't be surprised to see Noah rotate out on Lebron throughout the game. However, Ronnie Brewer could be the wild card. This guy is a great defender, but it's time for him to knock down some shots in place of Deng. Anything they can get from Korver will be gravy as this is not a good matchup for him and I don't expect him to have a ton of PT.

Good luck on whatever your playing

[Love The Action]

Refs favoring the Heat early with some questionable offensive foul calls on Chicago.

[TC Woods]

Refs favoring the Heat early with some questionable offensive foul calls on Chicago.

And with the spread increasing, I was able to get chi +8 with on-line betting

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/28/2012

Play #1

Bulls (+5) 1x (Locked)

This game is reminiscent of the recent Bulls/Pacers game in which the Pacers won. The reason the Pacers won was (1) better defense, (2) more toughness and (3) it meant more to them. In this game, I think all three of those factors favor the Bulls. First, although it's very difficult to stop the "big 3", the Bulls' defensive scheme is one of the few in the league that can give Miami fits. The Bulls' ability to play great team defense with pinpoint rotations on and off the ball, can force Miami into taking low percentage shots. The Bulls will need to play that tough team defense, especially without Deng who played Lebron as tough as anyone in the league. However, even though I am operating under the assumption that Deng is out, I'm now hearing that Deng might make a go of it tomorrow. Apparently, Deng is telling some guys in Chicago sports media (one of my buddies works for a Chicago sports talk radio station) that he is going to try to play because the doctors told him that the ligament is torn, can't get any worse and it's basically just a swelling/pain tolerance issue. The injury is to his non-shooting hand so it's possible. Although, you have to think his offense would be limited. Now all of this could just be bravado and the team would still have to clear him, but based on what I have heard out of Bulls camp about how important this game is to them, I would not be surprised to see Deng try to give it a go. This game is very important to the Bulls. Uniformly as a team, each one of them have said that they have had this game circled on the schedule since day 1. Much like the Pacers beat the Bulls at least partly because of revenge from last season's playoff series, I think the Bulls keep this one within the number based on their desire to seek revenge. This is especially true for Derrick Rose who does not take losing well and tends to file away losses in his memory, only to exact his revenge in the next matchup. Even though Miami will approach this as a big game, I think this game will mean more to the Bulls as the loser of last season's EC Finals. Quantitatively, this matchup is very tight. Both teams have their strengths, yet I think a few of the Bulls' strengths maches up well with Miami's stronger areas. As we know, Miami likes to win with the transition game and aggressive drives to the hoop in hopes of drawing fouls. However, the Bulls are ranked #2 in TOV% showing that they don't turn the ball over very often. In addition, the Bulls rank #1 in OFT/FGA, telling us that they are great at playing tough D without incurring a ton of fouls and putting their opponent on the FT line. Based on the stats as a whole, this is a very tight matchup and I feel as though the books are giving Miami too much credit because they playing at home. The Bulls bench will really help them in this game as their depth is the key to this matchup. CJ Watson, Asik and Gibson are going to have to come up big tomorrow and I expect them to play well against a thin Miami bench. I have this game set at +3 and I will take the bucket of value here. I'm not entirely convinced the Bulls win this game, but I am convince that this will be a great game, very competitive and come down to the last minute and perhaps the last shot to determine a winner. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bulls for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Clippers/Nuggets over (206) 1x and over (204.5) 1x (Locked)

Rather pissed at myself for not locking this in last night at 204 or this morning at 204.5. Sometimes we get greedy and get burned. Nevertheless, I still like this under the key number of 207. I am going to jump on 206 before my local lays the hook because I'm just not sure whether this one will drop back down and am doubtful of such a move at this point. I think this game should be fun and with CP3 finally having shaken off the rust, I expect a high-flying game tonight. Denver plays at the fastest PACE with the most possessions per game. Ty Lawson has been upgraded to probably and looks to be in the lineup tonight and he loves to push the pace and play up-tempo. The Clippers have the ability to play at a very fast pace when at their best and I expect tonight to be a very competitive game. The Clippers have played to the over 5 out of 6 times when playing with 2 days rest and I think we see them to employ a wide open and attacking offensive plan tonight. Both teams have the ability to draw fouls and even though the ref assignments are not favorable with Ayotte, Blair and Garretson, I think the sheer amount of possessions will lead to the eventual foul calls. Neither defense is playing particularly well at the moment and I think this matchup with both teams rested is set up nicely for an over play. The action is fairly split in this game with the wagers fluctuating right around the 50/50 breakpoint. I have this game set at 210 and was planning on putting multiple units on this if I could get 203, which is why I waited. At 206, I like this enough for a 1x play with a possible 0.50x addition later. I want to see where the line movement takes us but for now I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #2. Correct units denoted above.

I'm going to lock up another unit on this game now at 204.5 before it goes up with the Pinny move. I have this one set at 210 giving us solid value and with the Clip rested I think we see a fast paced game out of both teams. Even with the unfavorable ref assignments, I think both teams will draw some fouls. I like the offensive matchups and think we see more scoring than defense, especially with the depth of both teams. With CP3 healthy, we get the offensive scoring punch of Mo Williams off the bench and he has been playing well. I think both units score tonight and keep up the pace. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

[Catchn_Picks]

Ring up another one!

[jackdean33]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/28/2012

Play #1

Bulls (+5) 1x (Locked)

This game is reminiscent of the recent Bulls/Pacers game in which the Pacers won. The reason the Pacers won was (1) better defense, (2) more toughness and (3) it meant more to them. In this game, I think all three of those factors favor the Bulls. First, although it's very difficult to stop the "big 3", the Bulls' defensive scheme is one of the few in the league that can give Miami fits. The Bulls' ability to play great team defense with pinpoint rotations on and off the ball, can force Miami into taking low percentage shots. The Bulls will need to play that tough team defense, especially without Deng who played Lebron as tough as anyone in the league. However, even though I am operating under the assumption that Deng is out, I'm now hearing that Deng might make a go of it tomorrow. Apparently, Deng is telling some guys in Chicago sports media (one of my buddies works for a Chicago sports talk radio station) that he is going to try to play because the doctors told him that the ligament is torn, can't get any worse and it's basically just a swelling/pain tolerance issue. The injury is to his non-shooting hand so it's possible. Although, you have to think his offense would be limited. Now all of this could just be bravado and the team would still have to clear him, but based on what I have heard out of Bulls camp about how important this game is to them, I would not be surprised to see Deng try to give it a go. This game is very important to the Bulls. Uniformly as a team, each one of them have said that they have had this game circled on the schedule since day 1. Much like the Pacers beat the Bulls at least partly because of revenge from last season's playoff series, I think the Bulls keep this one within the number based on their desire to seek revenge. This is especially true for Derrick Rose who does not take losing well and tends to file away losses in his memory, only to exact his revenge in the next matchup. Even though Miami will approach this as a big game, I think this game will mean more to the Bulls as the loser of last season's EC Finals. Quantitatively, this matchup is very tight. Both teams have their strengths, yet I think a few of the Bulls' strengths maches up well with Miami's stronger areas. As we know, Miami likes to win with the transition game and aggressive drives to the hoop in hopes of drawing fouls. However, the Bulls are ranked #2 in TOV% showing that they don't turn the ball over very often. In addition, the Bulls rank #1 in OFT/FGA, telling us that they are great at playing tough D without incurring a ton of fouls and putting their opponent on the FT line. Based on the stats as a whole, this is a very tight matchup and I feel as though the books are giving Miami too much credit because they playing at home. The Bulls bench will really help them in this game as their depth is the key to this matchup. CJ Watson, Asik and Gibson are going to have to come up big tomorrow and I expect them to play well against a thin Miami bench. I have this game set at +3 and I will take the bucket of value here. I'm not entirely convinced the Bulls win this game, but I am convince that this will be a great game, very competitive and come down to the last minute and perhaps the last


shot to determine a winner. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bulls for 1x. Good luck.

great call lta

[mikea33]

great call lta

game was so rigged