LTA's NBA Plays

[OperatorX]

I will take 3-2 any day. good work

[Love The Action]

Lta or blaze what book do you use that posts
their lines so soon?

I use local books...one that generally follows Pinny/5d lines and the other that follows Legends for the most part. The book that follows Legends doesn't usually open up NBA until around 7:30 am, but the book that follows Pinny/5d lines usually opens up as soon as the last game of the night tips off.

[Love The Action]

I will take 3-2 any day. good work

It's all about the grind....

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/2/2012 Recap

3 - 2 = +0.7x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

17 - 13 = +4.05x

We cashed a couple of easy overs with both the Lakers over and Cavs over playing out exactly as predicted. We got burned by Andrew Bogut as he missed the game at the last minute because of personal reasons. He is a huge part of that team on both ends of the court. However, I made the decision not to buy out of the Bucks play because of the NBA injury replacement factor which supports the concept of backing a team in its first game after its star player is injured. That was a mistake. Also made a big mistake playing the Bulls instead of the under, but at least Portland turned out very well...so well in fact that I should have played the moneyline. Live and learn, but a profitable day nonetheless.

[suicidekings]

It's all about the grind....

The grind is so tiring at times, but then every so often you get rewarded with a sweep or a big win. I'm definitely loving the daily games of the NBA though. No more of this once a week business.

[blaze4g]

well im from jamaica, got a local book that placed their lines from 2pm today, so i used that to my advantage, i got magic/wizards over 182.5, pacers/heats over 192.5, mavs/suns over 189.5, knicks -7.5. Got some other good lines too but didnt bet on them. My local book lines gonna change in the morning so had to bet those today.

[blaze4g]

here is my lines for tomorrow

[Love The Action]

here is my lines for tomorrow

Wow, you should be making dough hand over fist. Just bet those lines against the early big moves at Pinny and you will have killer numbers. Then, even if the line moves against you, because your slow moving local you would have the opportunity to middle everything.

Stale lines are a sharp's dream. You could/should do a lot of damage...

[blaze4g]

@ LTA i should be, im in positive for the nba season so far but not nearly as much as i could be. The problem is its not done online and about a 15 min drive from home so kind of hard back and fourth.
what would you bet on if you had those lines?

[Love The Action]

@ LTA i should be, im in positive for the nba season so far but not nearly as much as i could be. The problem is its not done online and about a 15 min drive from home so kind of hard back and fourth.
what would you bet on if you had those lines?

All you need to do is compare the lines you get to the efficiency of the Pinny numbers. For example, you are getting 192.5 for the Heat/Indy over. However, at Pinny, that one is up to 196.5. Therefore, you are making a huge +ev bet by locking it in at 192.5. Now, if during the day the steam hits the under and that number drops from 196.5 back to say 193.5, then you might not feel that great about your over. However, because you can bet into stale lines, you should be able to get 196.5 after they move it in the morning. Therefore, even if you didn't want to stick with the original bet, you can buy out and shoot for a 4 point middle between 192.5 and 196.5.

If you cut me in on 40% of the profit, I will tell you all the bets to make and when to buy out for a middle

Just kidding bud, good luck and I hope you see the opportunity. Stale lines are a dream come true for so many different reasons.

Edit: I should add that the concept I describe above is more complicated with more moving parts than I describe above, but that is the basic premise.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/4/2012

Play #1

Bobcats/Knicks over (195) 1x (Locked)

Here we have two teams ranked in the top 13 in PACE with Charlotte at 6th overall and NY at 13th. I generally do not like to back teams on the over two nights in a row, but it's not like Charlotte shot lights out against the Cavs -- they were mediocre at best and still hit 100 because of the pace. Even though this will be the Bobcats second game of a b2b, their legs should not be so fatigued that it should affect their shooting or pace. However, as we know, they are not interested in playing defense this season and that's a good combo to go with the Knicks for an over. It's clear to me that Dantoni is resorting to his offense first mentality despite his comments to the contrary after acquiring Chandler. The Knicks themselves should be getting Stoudemire back and perhaps even Shumpert. That may be the offense they have lacking. Either way, however, I do not see the Knicks shooting under 36% two games in row. It's time for the Knicks to revert to their shooting average and hit mid 40%'s or better. Last season, this matchup elicited totals of between 201, 204 and 204.5, going over in two of the three games. The one game that stayed under, still hit 194 points. This game opened up at 193 and was immediately hit with over money driving the number up to 195 which is where the total was at when one of my locals opened up for tomorrow's card. I have this game set at 199.5, giving us over two field goals of value. That's also where I expect this one to close. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x and I may add a bit more when/if I get confirmation on Stoudemire who has been upgraded to probable. Good luck.

Here's my first play for Wednesday. I'm off for bed. I will definitely have a few more plays. Perhaps my first big play of the year as well. Good luck.

[SlickRick1382]

All you need to do is compare the lines you get to the efficiency of the Pinny numbers. For example, you are getting 192.5 for the Heat/Indy over. However, at Pinny, that one is up to 196.5. Therefore, you are making a huge +ev bet by locking it in at 192.5. Now, if during the day the steam hits the under and that number drops from 196.5 back to say 193.5, then you might not feel that great about your over. However, because you can bet into stale lines, you should be able to get 196.5 after they move it in the morning. Therefore, even if you didn't want to stick with the original bet, you can buy out and shoot for a 4 point middle between 192.5 and 196.5. If you cut me in on 40% of the profit, I will tell you all the bets to make and when to buy out for a middle Just kidding bud, good luck and I hope you see the opportunity. Stale lines are a dream come true for so many different reasons. Edit: I should add that the concept I describe above is more complicated with more moving parts than I describe above, but that is the basic premise.

Lets move to Jamaica to get those lines?

[SlickRick1382]

here is my lines for tomorrow

You got the Orlando Magic / Wash Wizards line 7.5 points under the 5 Dimes total. Wow is all I can say....

[brucethebear]

You're making me jealous

Nah, glad I could help.

Cheers mate. It sometimes works the other way that I only catch the ones that miss

Anyway, flicked you some points as a small token of my appreciation.

[Redscot]

@ LTA i should be, im in positive for the nba season so far but not nearly as much as i could be. The problem is its not done online and about a 15 min drive from home so kind of hard back and fourth.
what would you bet on if you had those lines?

I have a slow moving book to Blaze, although sharper than yours. I killed the 2nd half of baseball last season by just focusing on beating the lines. NBA has been strong as well to start the season doing the same. Generally speaking I tail LTA for his unit size and place 1/2 unit bets on all the other games where I have an advantage on the line. I don't have as many opportunities as you it seems, so I wonder if your local will make adjustments if you start working him over. My local has made some adjustments to me over time, especially in boxing where I took him to the cleaners a few times. Good luck

LTA, loving the fact that you are up already in NBA. Will only get better has you start getting a better read on this season. Keep on grindin' my man.

[jas19illini]

I think it got lost in the fold, so ill repost my question.

As far as pinny goes, how do you get their most up to date odds? Just keep refreshing the page? Bc I don't think people in the USA can create an account (which would provide access to dynamically changing lines on pinny).

[Redscot]

I think it got lost in the fold, so ill repost my question.

As far as pinny goes, how do you get their most up to date odds? Just keep refreshing the page? Bc I don't think people in the USA can create an account (which would provide access to dynamically changing lines on pinny).

I use Madduxsports. They seem to be pretty good for the non-paid sites. Maybe one of the guys who has a paid site could compare it with Maddux and let us know how far behind they run.......

http://www.madduxsports.com/nba-odds.php

[Love The Action]

I think it got lost in the fold, so ill repost my question.

As far as pinny goes, how do you get their most up to date odds? Just keep refreshing the page? Bc I don't think people in the USA can create an account (which would provide access to dynamically changing lines on pinny).

Just follow sbr odds dude. Or get a pais line service like sports insights, sports options, don best, etc.

[Love The Action]

I have a slow moving book to Blaze, although sharper than yours. I killed the 2nd half of baseball last season by just focusing on beating the lines. NBA has been strong as well to start the season doing the same. Generally speaking I tail LTA for his unit size and place 1/2 unit bets on all the other games where I have an advantage on the line. I don't have as many opportunities as you it seems, so I wonder if your local will make adjustments if you start working him over. My local has made some adjustments to me over time, especially in boxing where I took him to the cleaners a few times. Good luck

LTA, loving the fact that you are up already in NBA. Will only get better has you start getting a better read on this season. Keep on grindin' my man.

I was going to say last night that blaze's situation was similar to your own last mlb season, but I thought I would let you weigh in on your own.

You guy's both need to pick your spots and even throw some losers in to avoid getting booted or limited. Once you start making these adjustments, your books will see you are taking advantage of the slow lines and might not let you play till gameday by taking away your ability to play openers.

Anyway, as to your other comments, I do agree that once I get a little better handle on the totals market, our profitability will definitely increase. Believe me, a play like the lakers over where I locked it up too quickly and get beat 3pts by the closer are so rare now and will not happen a month from now once my model has a more reliable sample size for stats and I have a better feel for how the market will react. I'm very much looking forward to this nba season and mlb to come.

Have you been doing any scouting for mlb youngsters down in the dr?

GL today

[NOREGRETS]

Keep up the good work bud

[alamo]

Here's my first play for Wednesday. I'm off for bed. I will definitely have a few more plays. Perhaps my first big play of the year as well. Good luck.

With you on this LT (Hope you dont me shortening an already short LTA just sounds good !)

Looking forward to what might be your first big play of the year. Good luck with it if you decide to play it and lets hope for lots of in that Knickbocker game

[pacocn]

Lta, blaze, and Red, thanks for all the valuable information.

[nbaprofit]

good job man

[jas19illini]

Just follow sbr odds dude. Or get a pais line service like sports insights, sports options, don best, etc.

Thanks. That's usually what I do, I just didn't know if there was a better source.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/4/2012

Play #1

Bobcats/Knicks over (195) 1x (Locked)

Here we have two teams ranked in the top 13 in PACE with Charlotte at 6th overall and NY at 13th. I generally do not like to back teams on the over two nights in a row, but it's not like Charlotte shot lights out against the Cavs -- they were mediocre at best and still hit 100 because of the pace. Even though this will be the Bobcats second game of a b2b, their legs should not be so fatigued that it should affect their shooting or pace. However, as we know, they are not interested in playing defense this season and that's a good combo to go with the Knicks for an over. It's clear to me that Dantoni is resorting to his offense first mentality despite his comments to the contrary after acquiring Chandler. The Knicks themselves should be getting Stoudemire back and perhaps even Shumpert. That may be the offense they have lacking. Either way, however, I do not see the Knicks shooting under 36% two games in row. It's time for the Knicks to revert to their shooting average and hit mid 40%'s or better. Last season, this matchup elicited totals of between 201, 204 and 204.5, going over in two of the three games. The one game that stayed under, still hit 194 points. This game opened up at 193 and was immediately hit with over money driving the number up to 195 which is where the total was at when one of my locals opened up for tomorrow's card. I have this game set at 199.5, giving us over two field goals of value. That's also where I expect this one to close. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x and I may add a bit more when/if I get confirmation on Stoudemire who has been upgraded to probable. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Heat under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

Both teams had a day of rest and they should be primed to play some defense and live up to their top 10 DEFF rankings. However, before last game against the tired nets when they shot 52%, the pacers offense has been abysmal. Both defenses are top tier and can limit these offenses despite the heat's fast pace. Indy will slow it down and try to win the half court game. The refs richardson, goble and smith are neutral with a slight under lean. This game opened at 195 and took over money up to 197.5 where it started to drop at pinny. I have this game set at 193.5 and I love the value as indy will not shoot over 50% against this rested heat defense coming off the atlanta loss. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Looks like I got head-faked by pinny on that heat total as they dropped it from 197.5 to 197, only to steam it up to 198.5.

That sucks, but I still think those are too many points for this total.

I do hate when this happens though. Damn....

[blackberry_juice]

Play #2

Pacers/Heat under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

Both teams had a day of rest and they should be primed to play some defense and live up to their top 10 DEFF rankings. However, before last game against the tired nets when they shot 52%, the pacers offense has been abysmal. Both defenses are top tier and can limit these offenses despite the heat's fast pace. Indy will slow it down and try to win the half court game. The refs richardson, goble and smith are neutral with a slight under lean. This game opened at 195 and took over money up to 197.5 where it started to drop at pinny. I have this game set at 193.5 and I love the value as indy will not shoot over 50% against this rested heat defense coming off the atlanta loss. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Locked in at U 199. Thanks LTA. Do you have a side lean for this one? I think Indy slowing it down will keep it close enough for them to cover the +9. Or does Miami come out fired up after their loss and slam their foot on the gas all the way through. Thanks again, keep killing it.

[upscope]

We finally cashed a Lakers over!!!

[upscope]

here is my lines for tomorrow

WTF??

[PR9]

Play #2

Pacers/Heat under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

Both teams had a day of rest and they should be primed to play some defense and live up to their top 10 DEFF rankings. However, before last game against the tired nets when they shot 52%, the pacers offense has been abysmal. Both defenses are top tier and can limit these offenses despite the heat's fast pace. Indy will slow it down and try to win the half court game. The refs richardson, goble and smith are neutral with a slight under lean. This game opened at 195 and took over money up to 197.5 where it started to drop at pinny. I have this game set at 193.5 and I love the value as indy will not shoot over 50% against this rested heat defense coming off the atlanta loss. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

at 199 now at my book

EDIT - i see someone beat me to it. LOCKED @ $300 (-105)

.

[Love The Action]

Theres the steam on the pacers/heat under....down to 195.5 now

Wade downgraded to doubtful....nice.

[Love The Action]

at 199 now at my book

EDIT - i see someone beat me to it. LOCKED @ $300 (-105)

.

I doubt it. Its down to 195.5 now...

[PR9]

^ I posted right after I got it at 199. Saw B-juice's post re 199 , went to my book showing 199 and locked that bitch

[PR9]

my book is showing 197 now.

just beat it.

[shift_knob]

197 still good value?