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  • barts185
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 12-13-09
    • 815

    #281
    Originally posted by smallbluedonkey

    (I'm also on Spurs -3, but that's a different system)

    Nice call.
    Comment
    • cancan
      SBR High Roller
      • 12-11-10
      • 128

      #282
      BOL on your plays today
      Comment
      • Welt446+
        SBR High Roller
        • 12-04-09
        • 185

        #283
        01/14/11

        It looks like everything that would qualify numerically is disqualified due to injury
        Comment
        • barts185
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 12-13-09
          • 815

          #284
          While BOS has a lot of injuries, their starting 5 of

          R. AllenG. DavisS. O'NealP. PierceR. Rondo

          have been in place since 01/02, 7 games

          5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
          Comment
          • CapDees70
            Restricted User
            • 01-13-11
            • 79

            #285
            Looks like Milwaukee, Detroit, NYK and Bos are poss plays
            Comment
            • barts185
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 12-13-09
              • 815

              #286
              Originally posted by CapDees70
              Looks like Milwaukee, Detroit, NYK and Bos are poss plays

              DET, with the line move, would qualify as a fade of TOR, with the value moving to -1.2 at a line of TOR -1.5.

              However, DET has had a lineup change, with T-Mac (Tracy McGrady) now starting.\

              Also, Wallace, who missed last game, is listed as anywhere from questionable to expected to miss for tonight's game.
              Comment
              • barts185
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-13-09
                • 815

                #287
                MIL, with the line move, would qualify as a fade of PHI, with the value moving to -1.2 at a line of PHI -4.5

                Bogut is questionable. He says he's going to try to play, despite dealing with a back issue and a viral infection which has lasted a month.

                Drew Gooden played for 10 minutes last game, his first game since 12/20/10. I'm not sure how long he will play tonight.
                Comment
                • barts185
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 12-13-09
                  • 815

                  #288
                  Any chance someone else can go over the Knicks issues?

                  Thanks.
                  Comment
                  • Welt446+
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 12-04-09
                    • 185

                    #289
                    Originally posted by barts185
                    Any chance someone else can go over the Knicks issues?

                    Thanks.
                    Gallinari has been out for the last 5 games. He has started 33 of New Yorks games.
                    Comment
                    • smallbluedonkey
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 02-24-09
                      • 227

                      #290
                      [deleted post]
                      Comment
                      • barts185
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 12-13-09
                        • 815

                        #291
                        record update

                        Definite plays 9-17
                        12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
                        12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
                        12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
                        12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
                        12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
                        12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
                        12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
                        12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
                        12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
                        12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
                        12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
                        12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
                        12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
                        12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
                        12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
                        12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
                        12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
                        12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
                        12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
                        01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
                        01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
                        01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
                        01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
                        01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
                        01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
                        01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss



                        Possible plays 8-4
                        12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
                        12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
                        12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
                        12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
                        12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
                        12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
                        01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
                        01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
                        01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
                        01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
                        01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
                        01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.





                        Tied record plays 0-1

                        12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
                        Comment
                        • barts185
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 12-13-09
                          • 815

                          #292
                          01/15/11



                          NOR - With the line move, NOR qualifies, but have a number of injury questions, which is why the line moved.


                          DAL qualifies, but back to back and injuries (rumors that Dirk Nowitzki might return tonight)


                          CHI - If the line of MIA -2.5 is accurate (most places don't have it up), CHI would qualify but on back to back.



                          No plays.
                          Comment
                          • barts185
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 12-13-09
                            • 815

                            #293
                            01/16/11 early report

                            LAL -6 comes in with a value of 10.5, looks like it would be a play.

                            SAS is close, will have to see after Denver's game on 01/15 and if there is any line move. At SAS -7.5, even if Denver loses on 01/15, no play, value would come in at 9.8 for SAS.
                            Comment
                            • Welt446+
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 12-04-09
                              • 185

                              #294
                              Lakers are indeed a play - up to -6 by my calculations
                              Comment
                              • smallbluedonkey
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 02-24-09
                                • 227

                                #295
                                Originally posted by Welt446+
                                Lakers are indeed a play - up to -6 by my calculations
                                Yep.
                                Comment
                                • kingofmonash
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 04-11-10
                                  • 631

                                  #296
                                  clippers are on a roll ,
                                  Comment
                                  • PatrickBateman
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 03-29-08
                                    • 367

                                    #297
                                    Eric Gordon had a monster game
                                    Comment
                                    • barts185
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-13-09
                                      • 815

                                      #298
                                      Definite plays 9-18
                                      12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
                                      12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
                                      12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
                                      12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
                                      12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
                                      12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
                                      12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
                                      12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
                                      12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
                                      12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
                                      12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
                                      12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
                                      12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
                                      12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
                                      12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
                                      12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
                                      12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
                                      12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
                                      12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
                                      01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
                                      01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
                                      01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
                                      01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
                                      01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
                                      01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
                                      01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
                                      01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss



                                      Possible plays 8-4
                                      12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
                                      12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
                                      12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
                                      12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
                                      12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
                                      12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
                                      01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
                                      01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
                                      01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
                                      01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
                                      01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
                                      01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.





                                      Tied record plays 0-1

                                      12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
                                      Comment
                                      • Welt446+
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 12-04-09
                                        • 185

                                        #299
                                        01/17/11

                                        Jazz are a play at -6 or better
                                        Comment
                                        • barts185
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 12-13-09
                                          • 815

                                          #300
                                          Boozer out for CHI, so not a play.
                                          Comment
                                          • barts185
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 12-13-09
                                            • 815

                                            #301
                                            PHI was -5 in places, which would make them a fade, looking for info on CHA
                                            Comment
                                            • cancan
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 12-11-10
                                              • 128

                                              #302
                                              Originally posted by Welt446+
                                              01/17/11

                                              Jazz are a play at -6 or better
                                              Wagered at Pinnacle -4.5. TY
                                              Comment
                                              • barts185
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 12-13-09
                                                • 815

                                                #303
                                                Is there a reason why ATL -9.5 doesn't qualify?

                                                Looks like the lineup has had some changes, but not injuries.

                                                I guess if the lineup changes at a coaches decision, does this elminate the team? What about teams where the coach situationally changes lineups? Seems like they would never qualify.
                                                Comment
                                                • Welt446+
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 12-04-09
                                                  • 185

                                                  #304
                                                  Originally posted by barts185
                                                  Is there a reason why ATL -9.5 doesn't qualify?

                                                  Looks like the lineup has had some changes, but not injuries.

                                                  I guess if the lineup changes at a coaches decision, does this elminate the team? What about teams where the coach situationally changes lineups? Seems like they would never qualify.
                                                  Marvin Williams is out. Without him, Atlanta is 6-5. Most of those losses were from his injury earlier this season. He has been out for the last 7 games and Atlanta is 5-2 with his recent absence. I personally wouldn't play a team after seeing their performance in 7 games without a starter (I would do this with a 20 game sample without a starter).
                                                  Comment
                                                  • barts185
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-13-09
                                                    • 815

                                                    #305
                                                    record update:

                                                    PHI line went up to -5.5, so including CHA as a play, unless someone says they should go into the possible play category for some reason.


                                                    Definite plays 10-19
                                                    12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
                                                    12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
                                                    12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
                                                    12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
                                                    12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
                                                    12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
                                                    12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
                                                    12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
                                                    12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
                                                    12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
                                                    12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
                                                    12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
                                                    12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
                                                    12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
                                                    12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
                                                    12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
                                                    12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
                                                    12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
                                                    12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
                                                    01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
                                                    01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
                                                    01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
                                                    01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
                                                    01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
                                                    01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
                                                    01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
                                                    01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
                                                    01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
                                                    01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win



                                                    Possible plays 8-5
                                                    12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
                                                    12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
                                                    12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
                                                    12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
                                                    12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
                                                    12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
                                                    01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
                                                    01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
                                                    01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
                                                    01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
                                                    01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
                                                    01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
                                                    01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2





                                                    Tied record plays 0-1

                                                    12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Welt446+
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 12-04-09
                                                      • 185

                                                      #306
                                                      Originally posted by barts185
                                                      record update: PHI line went up to -5.5, so including CHA as a play, unless someone says they should go into the possible play category for some reason.
                                                      The Bobcats were definitely a play. I never suspected that there would be that much of a change in the spread.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Welt446+
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 12-04-09
                                                        • 185

                                                        #307
                                                        01/18/11

                                                        Nothing today. LeBron hasn't been playing much lately.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • cancan
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 12-11-10
                                                          • 128

                                                          #308
                                                          OK, stop today, only 2 matches!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • barts185
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 12-13-09
                                                            • 815

                                                            #309
                                                            Originally posted by Welt446+
                                                            01/18/11

                                                            Nothing today. LeBron hasn't been playing much lately.
                                                            Miami is definitely having some injury issue right now.

                                                            Bosh is defnitely out tonight

                                                            Wade is expected to play, but didn't practice yesterday or at this morning's shootaround.

                                                            James I'm seeing listed in some places as expected to play, other places game time decision. He did not take part in this morning's shootaround.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • barts185
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 12-13-09
                                                              • 815

                                                              #310
                                                              Early report for tomorrow, lot of possibilities, looking for feedback on injuries and reasons not to play teams.



                                                              UTA -6.5, comes in at 10+


                                                              BOS, but without getting into other issues, dd line so eliminated.


                                                              WAS +7 comes in as a fade of MIL (value comes out to -1.0 with a line of MIL -7) with MIL also going from positive to negative.


                                                              SAS but double digit line so eliminated


                                                              DAL comes in as a fade of LAL, but Chandler is questionable due to a lingering cold (would be 1st game back after 2 out) and it will only be Nowitzki's 3rd game back.


                                                              POR, at -1.5 (has already moved to -2 in places) comes in at 10+, wouldn't qualify at -2.0


                                                              GSW -4 comes in at -0.8, so if it goes to -4.5, IND would become a play as a fade of GSW
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Welt446+
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 12-04-09
                                                                • 185

                                                                #311
                                                                Originally posted by barts185
                                                                Early report for tomorrow, lot of possibilities, looking for feedback on injuries and reasons not to play teams. UTA -6.5, comes in at 10+ BOS, but without getting into other issues, dd line so eliminated. WAS +7 comes in as a fade of MIL (value comes out to -1.0 with a line of MIL -7) with MIL also going from positive to negative. SAS but double digit line so eliminated DAL comes in as a fade of LAL, but Chandler is questionable due to a lingering cold (would be 1st game back after 2 out) and it will only be Nowitzki's 3rd game back. POR, at -1.5 (has already moved to -2 in places) comes in at 10+, wouldn't qualify at -2.0 GSW -4 comes in at -0.8, so if it goes to -4.5, IND would become a play as a fade of GSW
                                                                Camby is out for the Trailblazers

                                                                Pacers should be a play if the line moves to +4.5

                                                                It's the Wizards at +7.5 by my calculations
                                                                Comment
                                                                • cancan
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 12-11-10
                                                                  • 128

                                                                  #312
                                                                  Let's have some winners today
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • barts185
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 12-13-09
                                                                    • 815

                                                                    #313
                                                                    Originally posted by Welt446+

                                                                    It's the Wizards at +7.5 by my calculations
                                                                    I guess you're using more than 3 decimal places, and I agree. In the future, if it comes out exactly, I'll see what it is if I use the entire percentage.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • barts185
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-13-09
                                                                      • 815

                                                                      #314
                                                                      So I guess one play and one possible

                                                                      UTA is a play

                                                                      IND is only a play if the line moves to +4.5 (currently +4)
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • barts185
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 12-13-09
                                                                        • 815

                                                                        #315
                                                                        WAS line moved down to +6 overnight, not sure if they would qualify even if it was mathematically eligible.

                                                                        A. BlatcheR. LewisJ. McGeeJ. WallN. Young

                                                                        Have started as much as anyone, but that's only 8 games.

                                                                        Just curious if people would have used them at +7.5

                                                                        Thanks.
                                                                        Comment
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