70% system 2010-2011

[smallbluedonkey]

Spurs is a play LOSS

I would count Chicago as a play too. LOSS

Boston is tricky. Garnett has missed 4 games, the line is close to being a no-play as it is, plus Boston are 1-3 ATS without Garnett. But they are playing the Raptors whom they beat by 14 pts without Garnett only 5 days ago. Boston are only 6-11 ATS at home this season as 0-4 ATS at home in their last 4 games. They haven't covered a spread at home since 19/12 against the Pacers and they only covered then by 2 points. I am going to say NO PLAY on Boston. WIN

Totally FADE-worthy advice...

[barts185]

Definite plays 5-16
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.



Possible plays 7-2
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[Welt446+]

1/08/11

Nothing today

[barts185]

The only thing which came up was DAL, and Nowitski is out again.

Is there some point where we consider the lineup of

T. Chandler ▪ J. Kidd ▪ S. Marion ▪ D. Stevenson ▪ J. Terry

Their lineup and use them?

Not saying it would be for tonight, just wondering if Dallas is a scratch until Dirk gets back.

[Welt446+]

01/09/11

Nothing for tomorrow either - unless the Spurs somehow jump down to -9.5

[barts185]

Thanks for the advance notice, definitely helps getting it ahead of time.

[barts185]

01/09/11

I think NOR is a play, as a fade of DEN at a value of -1 or worse. At a line of DEN -5, I get -1.85 for the value.

Or are we only looking at 10+ plays?

[Welt446+]

01/09/11

I think NOR is a play, as a fade of DEN at a value of -1 or worse. At a line of DEN -5, I get -1.85 for the value.

Or are we only looking at 10+ plays?

I was looking for fades too.

Hornets had the better record so I was just looking at it from that perspective. What do you think?

[Welt446+]

01/10/11

A few teams qualify numerically.

Bulls are without Noah, but I know you guys like playing them - I'm not going to.

Celtics are without Garnet.

Bobcats have two injured starters.

IMHO there aren't any plays.

[barts185]

I was looking for fades too.

Hornets had the better record so I was just looking at it from that perspective. What do you think?

Nuggets had the better record percentage-wise, which is what I thought was used.


DEN 20-15 .571
NOR 21-16 .568


So I came up with DEN, using a line of -5, having a value of -1.85, which was a fade.

[barts185]

Spreadsheet for calculating the values.

The spreadsheet I use is attached.

There are directions inside for either using data refresh, or copy / paste if you don't want to enable refresh going to a website.

While it gets the line, you still need to verify the line (line is ALWAYS for the home team, positive if they are a dog, negative if they are a favorite).

You still need to check for injuries.

The spreadsheet checks for back to back, and double digit lines, and shows the steps along the way in case you disagree with the calculations.

Take Care,
Bart

[barts185]

The spreadsheet defaults to today, but you can use the copy / paste to put in tomorrow's date, as explained in row 1.

If you do this, make sure you check the lines (Column E), because the overnight lines are the most questionable.

If you change the line, it will change the corresponding values, so you can use it and put in whatever lines you want.

[Welt446+]

Nuggets had the better record percentage-wise, which is what I thought was used.


DEN 20-15 .571
NOR 21-16 .568


So I came up with DEN, using a line of -5, having a value of -1.85, which was a fade.

I stand corrected. I missed a winning play.

[smallbluedonkey]

Does anyone know what the record for just the Fade plays (i.e. nos coming out at -1 or less) is so far this season?

[barts185]

Does anyone know what the record for just the Fade plays (i.e. nos coming out at -1 or less) is so far this season?

1-5 on the definite plays.
1-0 on the possible plays.
0-1 on the tied record play.

[barts185]

record update

Definite plays 6-16
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) Noah out long enough.



Possible plays 7-2
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[smallbluedonkey]

1-5 on the definite plays.
1-0 on the possible plays.
0-1 on the tied record play.

Gah! Even worse than the 10+ plays then! Thanks for the info.

[barts185]

Gah! Even worse than the 10+ plays then! Thanks for the info.

Yes, pretty bad. The only win is that last game.

[barts185]

And Chicago came back to cover.

record update

Definite plays 7-16
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.




Possible plays 7-2
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[PatrickBateman]

We got anything going today?

[cancan]

Target always 70%? Very difficult

[barts185]

Target always 70%? Very difficult

It's been done the last couple of seasons (could be longer, that's how long I've been looking at it).

Obviously, this year it is doing very poorly, can't imagine it getting anywhere near that number.

[barts185]

01/11/11

SAC, but Tyreke Evans missed last game and is expected to miss tonight.

SAS -6, value comes out to 21.05, a really high number.
I know it's home and home with Minnesota wanting revenge, but they are 0-5 ATS this season playing at home wanting revenge.


LAL, but double digit line.



For those interested (haven't ever researched these or tracked them)

IND is negative to positive

NYK is negative to positive



So, SAS I think is the one play today, would appreciate confirmation.

[Welt446+]

01/11/11

SAC, but Tyreke Evans missed last game and is expected to miss tonight.

SAS -6, value comes out to 21.05, a really high number.
I know it's home and home with Minnesota wanting revenge, but they are 0-5 ATS this season playing at home wanting revenge.


LAL, but double digit line.



For those interested (haven't ever researched these or tracked them)

IND is negative to positive

NYK is negative to positive



So, SAS I think is the one play today, would appreciate confirmation.

Josh McRoberts has missed the last few games for the Pacers so I'm not considering them.

Gallinari has been out for a few games for the Knicks.

The Spurs are indeed a play - I think they are definitely worth playing too.

[smallbluedonkey]

Yep. Spurs are a play.

[barts185]

Alright, let's see if we can make it 3 in a row with SAS.

[curious]

The Spurs? You people are on crack.

[barts185]

The Spurs? You people are on crack.

This crack?




or this one




Whichever crack it was, it was good crack!!!

3 in a row.

[Welt446+]

Heat at -8.5 or better

Hornets at +3 or better

most of the odds aren't out yet

[barts185]

01/12/11

Here's what I come up with:

DAL 10+ - both Nowitzki and Butler have now both been out for over a week. As far as I know, DAL qualifies under the rules, I'm not playing them.

DAL is 2-2 SU and ATS in the games both have been out, but they won the first two and lost the most recent two. In my opinion, it could be starting to sink in to the other players that they aren't going to be going anywhere this year if both of these players are out.


SAS, but on back to back.



NOR as a fade of ORL at -1 or less

Fade ORL at your own risk, I'm passing. Really wish I had listened to myself when I posted about ORL, and just bet them every game once they won a game convincingly. That happened on 12/23/10, they are 7-1 ATS since then.


UTA, at -6.5 goes from positive to negative (just mentioning it, not even tracking), but Gallinari out again for NYK.


MIA, 10+




So, I think, for the system

NOR

DAL

MIA


are plays, but I expect there to be questions about DAL due to the multiple injuries even though they are over a week old, and as I said, I am personally not fading ORL, but will count NOR as a system play.

[barts185]

record update

Definite plays 8-16
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win




Possible plays 7-2
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.



Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss

[cancan]

good luck on ur pick

[smallbluedonkey]

Go Heat-7

(I'm also on Spurs -3, but that's a different system)

[Welt446+]

01/13/11

The only game that might qualify numerically is for the Wizards but Blatche is doubtful and they've lost every game that he has been out.

[barts185]

record update

Sorry for the typo originally

Definite plays 9-17
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss



Possible plays 7-3
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.


Tied record plays 0-1

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss