70% system 2010-2011

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  • sneak-a-peak
    SBR MVP
    • 11-07-09
    • 1373

    #176
    Originally posted by barts185
    Early look at Wednesday, 12/22/10

    CHI, but on B2B and Noah out. How long do we wait with Noah being out for anywhere from 6-10 weeks? He last played on 12/15.

    BOS, but DD line.

    UTA, but Raja Bell's 4th game back, hasn't been a week. He had a really good game last game.
    The Boston line has dropped under 10.

    Im still going to pass because Rondo is out but would not be surprised if they do still get the cover the way Robinson has played for them.
    Comment
    • smallbluedonkey
      SBR High Roller
      • 02-24-09
      • 227

      #177
      Gah! Missed the Jazz cover by a single point! I also missed Spurs -7 by a single point tonight too (not a system play though).

      That hurts.
      Comment
      • sneak-a-peak
        SBR MVP
        • 11-07-09
        • 1373

        #178
        Ya I hate when "Free Throws" cost me a game!

        0:04 Deron Williams misses free throw 1 of 2 111-107
        Comment
        • Welt446+
          SBR High Roller
          • 12-04-09
          • 185

          #179
          There's nothing numerically at all for 12/23/10
          Comment
          • smallbluedonkey
            SBR High Roller
            • 02-24-09
            • 227

            #180
            Originally posted by sneak-a-peak
            Ya I hate when "Free Throws" cost me a game!

            0:04 Deron Williams misses free throw 1 of 2 111-107
            Yeah, add that to Jazz's 1-10 3-point shooting.
            Comment
            • chizzy
              SBR Sharp
              • 07-18-10
              • 310

              #181
              Originally posted by Welt446+
              There's nothing numerically at all for 12/23/10
              ive got the Spurs at 13 points and with them being a 2.5 point underdog, would that not make them a play?
              Comment
              • chizzy
                SBR Sharp
                • 07-18-10
                • 310

                #182
                Originally posted by chizzy
                ive got the Spurs at 13 points and with them being a 2.5 point underdog, would that not make them a play?

                never mind. theyre B2B.
                Comment
                • smallbluedonkey
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 02-24-09
                  • 227

                  #183
                  Originally posted by chizzy
                  ive got the Spurs at 13 points and with them being a 2.5 point underdog, would that not make them a play?
                  Not a system play, but a good bet nonetheless.

                  Of the possible 10+ plays this season that were eliminated ONLY on the basis of the BTB games filter, the record is 4-2. If you count only underdog plays, its 2-0, with both plays covering by 10+ points.

                  2nd half of last season, 10+ plays filtered out ONLY by the BTB filter the record is 6-4.
                  Comment
                  • barts185
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 12-13-09
                    • 815

                    #184
                    Originally posted by smallbluedonkey
                    Not a system play, but a good bet nonetheless.

                    Of the possible 10+ plays this season that were eliminated ONLY on the basis of the BTB games filter, the record is 4-2. If you count only underdog plays, its 2-0, with both plays covering by 10+ points.

                    2nd half of last season, 10+ plays filtered out ONLY by the BTB filter the record is 6-4.

                    Great info - thanks.
                    Comment
                    • barts185
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 12-13-09
                      • 815

                      #185
                      record update

                      Definite plays 4-11
                      12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
                      12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
                      12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
                      12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
                      12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
                      12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
                      12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
                      12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
                      12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
                      12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
                      12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
                      12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
                      12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
                      12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
                      12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
                      12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game



                      Possible plays 3-1
                      12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
                      12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
                      12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
                      12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.



                      Tied record plays 0-1

                      12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
                      Comment
                      • barts185
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 12-13-09
                        • 815

                        #186
                        Merry Christmas!!!!



                        No plays on Christmas day.

                        Boston qualifies, but Rondo still out (4th game). Report is that he's getting closer to a return but won't play Christmas day. Jermaine O'Neal is expected to return.

                        No line on POR/GSW due to injury questions.


                        Since BOS qualifies, it brings up the question - do we use the season record for ORL / PHO / WAS? If not, what?

                        ORL looks like they are starting to play together better, expect them to be a force moving forward.
                        Comment
                        • DuncHen22
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-20-09
                          • 1079

                          #187
                          Originally posted by barts185
                          Merry Christmas!!!!



                          No plays on Christmas day.

                          Boston qualifies, but Rondo still out (4th game). Report is that he's getting closer to a return but won't play Christmas day. Jermaine O'Neal is expected to return.

                          No line on POR/GSW due to injury questions.


                          Since BOS qualifies, it brings up the question - do we use the season record for ORL / PHO / WAS? If not, what?

                          ORL looks like they are starting to play together better, expect them to be a force moving forward.
                          Great question. Personally, I feel like just not playing ORL until I see some consistency. Watch how they play together and check their ATS records. Give it a few more games (a week or two, maybe?).
                          Comment
                          • dau2ecko5
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 02-20-09
                            • 16

                            #188
                            For orlando you need to allowed a week since they changed their team. Those motherf made me lose money against celtics.
                            Comment
                            • barts185
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 12-13-09
                              • 815

                              #189
                              12/26/10

                              No plays.

                              SAS qualifies, but DD line.

                              For the "part 2", ATL moves from negative to positive, but haven't even been tracking it.
                              Comment
                              • smallbluedonkey
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 02-24-09
                                • 227

                                #190
                                Yeah, nothing today.
                                Comment
                                • smallbluedonkey
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 02-24-09
                                  • 227

                                  #191
                                  Hornets -3.5 @ Minnesota

                                  {Edit: NOT A SYSTEM PLAY - MIN on BTB**
                                  Comment
                                  • barts185
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 12-13-09
                                    • 815

                                    #192
                                    Originally posted by smallbluedonkey
                                    Hornets -3.5 @ Minnesota
                                    I know you've pointed out that games eliminated only due to B2B have been profitable, but wanted to point out that this is a B2B game for the Hornets.
                                    Comment
                                    • barts185
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-13-09
                                      • 815

                                      #193
                                      Looking ahead to 12/28 on games involving teams not playing today, so don't have to consider winning percentages changing:

                                      BOS -4.5 qualifies, injury question time - Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th game out

                                      NYK qualifies as a fade of MIA, which comes in a -1.05 with a line of -10 (NYK +10).
                                      Other places are putting this line out at -9.5, which while it would still make MIA go from positive to negative, would not hit the -1.00 or worse qualifier.
                                      Comment
                                      • smallbluedonkey
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 02-24-09
                                        • 227

                                        #194
                                        Originally posted by barts185
                                        I know you've pointed out that games eliminated only due to B2B have been profitable, but wanted to point out that this is a B2B game for the Hornets.
                                        My mistake. I edited the above post.
                                        Comment
                                        • smallbluedonkey
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 02-24-09
                                          • 227

                                          #195
                                          I currently have system (only the 10+ plays) at 6-11 so far this season. Dreadful record so far, but what is interesting is that if you look at first half lines the system plays are 10-7 so far this season. Seems the 2nd halves are what's killing us.
                                          Comment
                                          • barts185
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 12-13-09
                                            • 815

                                            #196
                                            Definite plays 5-12
                                            12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
                                            12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
                                            12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
                                            12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
                                            12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
                                            12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
                                            12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
                                            12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
                                            12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
                                            12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
                                            12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
                                            12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
                                            12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
                                            12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
                                            12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
                                            12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
                                            12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.


                                            Possible plays 4-1
                                            12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
                                            12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
                                            12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
                                            12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
                                            12/28 - not counted NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it, just putting a note here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.




                                            Tied record plays 0-1

                                            12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
                                            Comment
                                            • barts185
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 12-13-09
                                              • 815

                                              #197
                                              012/29

                                              Would appreciate if anyone can confirm no plays.

                                              Here's what I came up with:

                                              IND if +3 or better, but on b2b.


                                              BOS, on b2b.


                                              OKC, originally DD line, but at -9, comes to +12.3. Will be 3rd game back for Krstic, who only played 15 minutes on the 27th. Westbook, who left Monday's game with a singer, is expected to play.


                                              NOR, not initially, but with the move to +3 would qualify as a fade of the Lakers.


                                              DEN, on b2b. Anthony out again, Kenyon Martin out, being rested on the back end of a b2b after being back for 4 games.


                                              UTAH qualifies, but Kirilenko is out. Deron Williams is expected to play, but has a sprained right wrist.



                                              So the only one that I think could qualify is NOR, but they didn't at the opening line, and it would be a fade of the Lakers at -1 or worse (just to clarify, the value comes out to -1 or worse, the line would have to be LAL -3 or worse).
                                              Comment
                                              • Welt446+
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 12-04-09
                                                • 185

                                                #198
                                                Originally posted by barts185
                                                012/29

                                                Would appreciate if anyone can confirm no plays.

                                                Here's what I came up with:

                                                IND if +3 or better, but on b2b.


                                                BOS, on b2b.


                                                OKC, originally DD line, but at -9, comes to +12.3. Will be 3rd game back for Krstic, who only played 15 minutes on the 27th. Westbook, who left Monday's game with a singer, is expected to play.


                                                NOR, not initially, but with the move to +3 would qualify as a fade of the Lakers.


                                                DEN, on b2b. Anthony out again, Kenyon Martin out, being rested on the back end of a b2b after being back for 4 games.


                                                UTAH qualifies, but Kirilenko is out. Deron Williams is expected to play, but has a sprained right wrist.



                                                So the only one that I think could qualify is NOR, but they didn't at the opening line, and it would be a fade of the Lakers at -1 or worse (just to clarify, the value comes out to -1 or worse, the line would have to be LAL -3 or worse).
                                                Hornets are all I have as well. I don't remember lines that move into being a play being any kind of issue last year.
                                                Comment
                                                • Welt446+
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 12-04-09
                                                  • 185

                                                  #199
                                                  For last year's season, since January of 2010, this is how the fades did:

                                                  1/22

                                                  Rockets Win

                                                  1/25

                                                  Pacers Win

                                                  2/5

                                                  Rockets Win

                                                  3-1

                                                  Grizzlies Loss

                                                  3-21

                                                  Blazers Pass

                                                  4-6

                                                  Thunder Win



                                                  Comment
                                                  • barts185
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-13-09
                                                    • 815

                                                    #200
                                                    Originally posted by Welt446+
                                                    For last year's season, since January of 2010, this is how the fades did:

                                                    1/22

                                                    Rockets Win

                                                    1/25

                                                    Pacers Win

                                                    2/5

                                                    Rockets Win

                                                    3-1

                                                    Grizzlies Loss

                                                    3-21

                                                    Blazers Pass

                                                    4-6

                                                    Thunder Win



                                                    Thanks.

                                                    I thought last year some people wouldn't play at anything other than the opening line, but wasn't sure.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • PatrickBateman
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 03-29-08
                                                      • 367

                                                      #201
                                                      How would we be doing on the ML? How many faves were straight up losses?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Welt446+
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 12-04-09
                                                        • 185

                                                        #202
                                                        The Knicks line is the only one that is out and they qualify at +7.5
                                                        Comment
                                                        • barts185
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 12-13-09
                                                          • 815

                                                          #203
                                                          DAL qualifies (as a fade of SAS) if Nowitzki plays. He only missed 1 game, and has a pretty long history of playing well while hurt.

                                                          He said he the knee was feeling better yesterday, but no decision has been made yet for tonight's game. The Spurs have said that they expect him to play.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • barts185
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 12-13-09
                                                            • 815

                                                            #204
                                                            record update

                                                            Definite plays 5-13
                                                            12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
                                                            12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
                                                            12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
                                                            12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
                                                            12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
                                                            12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
                                                            12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
                                                            12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
                                                            12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
                                                            12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
                                                            12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
                                                            12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
                                                            12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
                                                            12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
                                                            12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
                                                            12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
                                                            12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
                                                            12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.



                                                            Possible plays 5-1
                                                            12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
                                                            12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
                                                            12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
                                                            12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
                                                            12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
                                                            12/29 OKC (10+) line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.



                                                            Tied record plays 0-1

                                                            12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
                                                            Comment
                                                            • barts185
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 12-13-09
                                                              • 815

                                                              #205
                                                              I think they were waiting for me to post before deciding about Dirk

                                                              In any event, it's now being said that Nowitzki is not playing tonight.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • barts185
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 12-13-09
                                                                • 815

                                                                #206
                                                                Early look at games posted so far for 12/31 (NJN/CHI, WAS/IND, GSW/CHA, TOR/HOU, ATL/OKC)

                                                                CHI qualifies, but currently line is -10, so eliminated unless line moves down. Noah has been out since 12/18 (6 games), will be out until approximately March. CHI is 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS since he's been out.

                                                                Some other games are close (GSW +2 value 0.0, HOU -9 value 0.45, OKC -5 value 0.45), will have to look at overnight moves.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • sneak-a-peak
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-07-09
                                                                  • 1373

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Who's going to play the Knicks tonight?

                                                                  I kinda like the play but its a fade of a team that is completely revamped and new so I'm not too sure on it right now.

                                                                  Thoughts anyone?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • barts185
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 12-13-09
                                                                    • 815

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Personally I'm passing.

                                                                    On 12/24 I posted asking what to do with ORL since you now have a team which is not indicative of the record. ORL took a few games to get things together and now has won/covered 4 in a row. Not sure what to do with them, but personally I'm waiting a while, or would play on them if something came up, not planning on playing against them until they settle down and show that they can be beaten.

                                                                    This should be everyone's signal to go large on NY - my timing has been less than great lately

                                                                    But seriously, I'm passing, good luck if you do anything.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • sneak-a-peak
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-07-09
                                                                      • 1373

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Ya thanks for your thoughts Barts. I agree- Im going to end up passing too.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • smallbluedonkey
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 02-24-09
                                                                        • 227

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Yeah. Tread carefully with Orlando.
                                                                        Comment
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