Cheme82's NBA plays for November

**chilidog** · 11-12-10, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

you don't have to enter them all in, just look in the box and if you don't see >165 it doesn't matter (when buying 3 points). example if you see a 3 point buy going down from -7 (your line from pinny) to -4 and the juice is -183 let's say that is a go because your odds are -170, giving you an edge of X%, the difference of -183 and -170. in cheme's case -165.

Yup exactly. You really just learn by looking after doing it for a little bit. I still input the numbers when I need to know what percentage edge do I have, so I know what amount to bet. But I don't enter in every single game, because there's no need to.

**Cheme82** · 11-13-10, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

And yah, very often buying the 3 points creates the edge, but you won't find an edge if the pinny line is -105 or -106 on both sides, and yo're getting -105. So yah, I find games with either a 1/2 point difference or a -107 or worse line, and I plug those into the calculator.

You can get an edge even if the line is -105 on both sides. -5 -105,+5 -105 gives you an edge if you buy the dog up to +8 -165

**Cheme82** · 11-13-10, 12:13 AM

Results:
1-2-0 -6.97 units

YTD
53-15-0 +123.58 units

**jolmscheid** · 11-13-10, 12:53 AM

Thanks cheme. I pretty much know that for basketball I should enter all games in as it seems an edge ca- be made by just buying the points alone. But for football it seems like the lin3 has to be at least a point off or the odds have to he at least 10 cents of$ to get Amy edge. Does this work with moneylines?

**chilidog** · 11-13-10, 01:08 AM

The calculator only has settings for spreads and totals.

**Cheme82** · 11-13-10, 02:06 AM

In college football you are looking for lines around the 3 and 7 that are either off by half a point or more or that have heavy juice on one side and then move that way.

In NFL you don't need the lines to be off, moving through the 3 will give you an edge regardless of juice and sometimes the 7 depending on juice.

**impper** · 11-13-10, 02:15 AM

Cheme, can I apply this same method to college hoops? By the way, this is an amazing thread. It really got me to think through all of the theory and numbers

**chilidog** · 11-13-10, 02:16 AM

yah, he has a cbb thread as well. the calc works for college football, college basketball, mlb, nba, nfl, and nhl, and with spreads/totals for each. No moneylines.

**thebestthereis** · 11-13-10, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by Cheme82

In college football you are looking for lines around the 3 and 7 that are either off by half a point or more or that have heavy juice on one side and then move that way.

In NFL you don't need the lines to be off, moving through the 3 will give you an edge regardless of juice and sometimes the 7 depending on juice.

cheme only for you though and your lines? -105 and cheaper point buys? can't be for -110 books right?

**Cheme82** · 11-13-10, 12:35 PM

Even at -110 as long as they sell you the hooks for 10 cents.

**Cheme82** · 11-13-10, 12:36 PM

Just in case you guys haven't seen the CBB thread, plays are posted already.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping/778285-cheme82s-cbb-plays-november.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**Cheme82** · 11-13-10, 12:44 PM

Saturday
11/13/2010
Orlando -4 -165 3.9
Washington 14 -165 2.6
Memphis 6 -165 3.3
San Antonio -6.5 -165 5.6
Golden St. 10.5 -165 5.7

GL

**overthecut** · 11-13-10, 04:25 PM

good luck for ur calls !

**Cheme82** · 11-13-10, 11:02 PM

Results:
3-1-1 +7.46 units

YTD
56-16-1 +131.04 units

**impper** · 11-13-10, 11:11 PM

Nice plays chem. That griz game was a nailbiter

**Cheme82** · 11-13-10, 11:16 PM

Yes sir, huge swing on it and happy to get the push.

**Cheme82** · 11-14-10, 01:56 PM

Sunday
11/14/2010
Minnesota 13.5 -165 2

GL

**Cheme82** · 11-14-10, 03:31 PM

Last plays for the day:.

Detroit 8 -165 6.9
Houston 6 -165 2.8
Phoenix 12 -165 3.3

GL

**Cheme82** · 11-14-10, 11:58 PM

Results:
4-0-0 +15 units

YTD
60-16-1 +146.04 units

**impper** · 11-15-10, 04:03 AM

i'm getting a hang of doing these picks on my own, and i got the same results you did today, even pushing big on the detroit game

. nice job cheme.

btw, will the half point calculator get outdated as time fades? i've been learning to spot games that fall under a profitable game in which to buy points, but the calculator is still wonderful.

and finally, can anyone alert me to a book where i can get -165 for 3 points? that's a big difference and those 5 cents can be the difference between something worth betting and something that'll lose money.

**thebestthereis** · 11-15-10, 07:40 AM

you will not find a book giving -165 for 3 points, a few are at -170 and the ones that have a clue are even higher or do not offer it

**chilidog** · 11-15-10, 09:49 AM

Awesome night last night for you guys that played

I got setup with another local yesterday, also with -105 juice, and I can buy 3 points for -165. I'm telling you guys, locals are easy to find.

**thebestthereis** · 11-15-10, 10:25 AM

chili that's great, locals are easy to find. i have one that is -110, -170 but i think i know another one that i haven't played with yet. i called a friend of mine who's family has mob ties that used to book forever, he said he is taking a break but he never had the online deal. it was call in and the wrote the shit in a book, totally old school. i tried to get down as much as i could on dallas but he wasn't taking bets anymore

**jolmscheid** · 11-15-10, 10:59 AM

Gosh dang...I need a legit local...I just have never heard of any in a state like MN!

**chilidog** · 11-15-10, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Gosh dang...I need a legit local...I just have never heard of any in a state like MN!

You ever go to sports bars? Not a mainstream place that caters to everybody. I'm talking about the little sports bars, where maybe the owner is the bartender or something. It's so easy to find locals. I'm sure it's easier in costa rica, being the land of the sportsbooks and credit operations. But from what I've read here on SBR, locals seem to find you.

The one that I got setup yesterday just kinda fell into my lap. One of my friend's neighbors got a job at a sportsbook awhile back, and he started hanging out with us watching football on sundays. I was bitching about not taking the Dallas ML, and he said that he was also an agent for the sportsbook he works at. I had him set me up an account right there, with the limits I wanted, and with reduced -105 juice.

**jolmscheid** · 11-15-10, 11:17 AM

That's sweet chili...

**impper** · 11-15-10, 11:53 AM

a local's easy to find? where do you live where that's true?

**chilidog** · 11-15-10, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by impper

a local's easy to find? where do you live where that's true?

I live in costa rica, but from what people have said on this forum, it's just as easy in the states to find locals.

**impper** · 11-15-10, 11:57 AM

i'll have a look around, i guess

**thebestthereis** · 11-15-10, 12:12 PM

try craigslist

**thebestthereis** · 11-15-10, 01:32 PM

cheme any games where you bet both sides with a slight edge on either? example bobcats -6 and t-wolves +12. or just go with the side with best edge?

**jolmscheid** · 11-15-10, 05:59 PM

I've tried Craigslist...don't know what to search for...tried everything on there...

**Cheme82** · 11-15-10, 06:39 PM

Monday
11/15/2010
Min +12 -165 10
Mem +11.5 -165 8.7
NO +7 -165 1000
Phoenix pick'em -105 10
OKC +9.5 -165 8.6
GS -3 -165 9.5

GL

**incomeraise** · 11-15-10, 06:57 PM

is N.O a 10 or 1000 lol

**Cheme82** · 11-15-10, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by impper

i'm getting a hang of doing these picks on my own, and i got the same results you did today, even pushing big on the detroit game

. nice job cheme. btw, will the half point calculator get outdated as time fades? i've been learning to spot games that fall under a profitable game in which to buy points, but the calculator is still wonderful. and finally, can anyone alert me to a book where i can get -165 for 3 points? that's a big difference and those 5 cents can be the difference between something worth betting and something that'll lose money.

Glad to see you did well too bro. As far as the calculator getting outdated the answer is no. In fact, as the season gets older the lines become sharper and since the cost of buying points remains the same the buying of points becomes more valuable.