Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

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  • Grinder12000
    SBR MVP
    • 04-21-11
    • 1809

    #491
    That Cleveland game was a nightmare as Portland scored the last 10 points in the final minutes.

    Ill have to digest the London thing. WTF.

    i also have some joy that Golden State LOST the game, if you are not going to cover, at least lose.

    are we playing Atl B bet at home? i think the game is in London
    Yes - I went back and redid the algorithm as if Atlanta was AWAY with same results

    I did not know we would start the "C" game correction in SAS2 RIGHT AWAY!!

    SAS2 - days between "C" losses

    8
    11
    3
    3
    10
    8
    14
    14
    4(2)

    EX Days between "C" losses

    39
    5
    6
    5
    Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-16-14, 09:01 AM.
    Comment
    • miczz14
      SBR High Roller
      • 01-22-13
      • 146

      #492
      2 games chase on cle was so unlucky they tried to cover but Deng missed a 3
      Comment
      • Grinder12000
        SBR MVP
        • 04-21-11
        • 1809

        #493
        Sorry for more word clutter - I'm always asking WHY something is happening

        So how bad has it actually been.


        It seems like everything is crashing and burning doesn't it. But for me it's all about wins and losses and not chases. While this is a chasing system you can not make a betting system that will win if you can't win games.

        Any betting system has to have an individual game winning percentage of 52% ATS, period, can't be done. I'll say it again, in the long run, against the spread, there is no scientific way to win money, in ANY system, if you can not hit 52% of your games. There is no God particle in the NBA.

        With that said my concern is always winning percentage. So looking at the last month

        in the last 30 days
        SAS2 43-36 54.4%
        EX 54-35 60.6%
        S3H3O1 30-25 54.5%

        In the last 7 days

        SAS2 8-11 42.1%
        EX 12-11 52.1%
        S3H3O1 6-5 54.5%

        So ya - a little slumpy - I guess we were do - let's just ride out this vortex, keep our head above water and fight another day!

        The 5 systems combined - daily units won/lost with trend line - graph goes to the end of the NBA season. Trend-line is just that

        Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-16-14, 05:46 PM.
        Comment
        • Mako-SBR
          SBR Sharp
          • 10-15-13
          • 492

          #494
          Originally posted by Grinder12000

          In the last 7 days

          SAS2 8-11 42.1%
          EX 12-11 52.1%
          S3H3O1 6-5 54.5%

          So ya - a little slumpy - I guess we were do - let's just ride out this vortex, keep our head above water and fight another day!
          If going 26-27 over the past week is a "slump", as a stright bettor I'll take that every time Grinder...

          Keep up the great work, loving everything you're doing.
          Comment
          • Trep
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-25-13
            • 375

            #495
            The graph is blurry =P

            Guess I started tailing at a bad time. But I'm optimistic and I'm picking and choosing in between systems. Thankfully I missed the ATL pick today though!

            Thanks again for all the work.
            Comment
            • Grinder12000
              SBR MVP
              • 04-21-11
              • 1809

              #496
              Dang - I wish I would have missed it!! I had +2 When a team almost hits .600 shooting 27 3-pointers it'll be tough to win.

              You know Trep - now you can't say everytime you miss a game it wins! :-)
              Comment
              • Grinder12000
                SBR MVP
                • 04-21-11
                • 1809

                #497
                01/16/14

                All systems combined straight betting 202-163
                All chases Tot 43.64u and treading water
                all win and losses include games that cancel each other out



                Result
                EX = 80-64 +10.79.46u
                85A EX NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
                86A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

                SAS2 32-23 +2.33u
                36A SAS2 fade Indiana NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
                ##B SAS2 Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.10 Lost
                It's clean up Friday YIKES

                82C EX fade LALakers Boston 4.85 to win 4.41 ***(1)
                85B EX NYKnicks 2.31 to win 2.10
                84B EX Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10
                75C EX fade Detroit Utah 4.85 to win 4.41
                81C EX San Antonio 4.85 to win 4.41
                86A EX fade Boston LALakers ***(1)

                100A H3 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00
                101A H3 fade LAClippers NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00
                98B H3 Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10
                102A S3 fade Miami Philly 1.10 to win 1.00

                "D" BETS - PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK (of course)

                73D EX Golden State
                ##D SAS2 Cleveland
                ##D SAS2 Golden State
                89D S3 Cleveland

                This is a 7 day moving average of daily winning pct. About 50 games a week. Meaning take all 7 days and get a winning%, Next day throw out the first day and add the next. As you can tell a little slumpy but we're do to bounce back. Got some resistance at the .450 level.

                All systems. Red line is the average trend line. Bottom bars are the number of wagers per 7 day week. The .300 line is 40 wagers



                I'm road trippin' this weekend - I won't be so chatty! And yes - zero picks for the SAS2 - weird. It's afraid I think!
                Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-17-14, 10:58 AM.
                Comment
                • miczz14
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 01-22-13
                  • 146

                  #498
                  are you going to post the D bets?

                  oh and do you cap or just play the system?
                  Last edited by miczz14; 01-17-14, 05:57 AM.
                  Comment
                  • Grinder12000
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-21-11
                    • 1809

                    #499
                    There ya go.

                    Good luck this weekend - I'll be having Christmas in Illinois but will keep things going.

                    NBA games in the next 7 days

                    Friday - 12
                    Saturday - 7
                    Sunday - 5
                    Monday - 10
                    Tuesday - 5
                    Wednesday - 10
                    Thursday - 2

                    Updated the graph.
                    Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-17-14, 10:59 AM.
                    Comment
                    • Afterimage
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 09-07-13
                      • 44

                      #500
                      According to the graph it's time to BUY! Lock and load! Upswing coming!
                      Comment
                      • Grinder12000
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-21-11
                        • 1809

                        #501
                        I had 300 miles to think about that graph and might have an idea on a chase/straight betting fusion system.

                        Straight bet going down down and chase going up. I'll have to look into this.
                        Comment
                        • Trep
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 12-25-13
                          • 375

                          #502
                          Originally posted by Grinder12000
                          Dang - I wish I would have missed it!! I had +2 When a team almost hits .600 shooting 27 3-pointers it'll be tough to win.

                          You know Trep - now you can't say everytime you miss a game it wins! :-)
                          I can...just to make myself feel better. I'll selectively ignore the times it works out for me! =P
                          Comment
                          • Afterimage
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 09-07-13
                            • 44

                            #503
                            I typically bet more when Bridgejumper goes into a slump. Nearly always proves profitable. I'm fairly confident we'll find the same thing here, unless it all just goes down in flames. Been a blast so far!
                            Comment
                            • Jeremylynn
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 11-18-13
                              • 204

                              #504
                              Anybody have a thought on these d bets. I like the Cleveland not sure about golden St
                              Comment
                              • Grinder12000
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-21-11
                                • 1809

                                #505
                                01/18/14

                                All systems combined straight betting 205-170
                                All chases Tot 32.63u and sinking
                                all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

                                MAN!! The bloom is off the rose - this is killing me
                                EX = 83-67 +6.29u
                                82C EX fade LALakers Boston 4.85 to win 4.41 LOST
                                85B EX NYKnicks 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST
                                84B EX Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                                75C EX fade Detroit Utah 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
                                81C EX San Antonio 4.85 to win 4.41 LOST
                                86A EX fade Boston LALakers 1.1. to win 1.00 WIN

                                S3,H3,O1 = 92-80 +24.01u
                                100A H3 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
                                101A H3 fade LAClippers NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
                                98B H3 Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10 LOST
                                102A S3 fade Miami Philly 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST

                                I guess we hadn't hit bottom yet.
                                Saturday Known games - lets get off the schnide

                                36B SAS2 fade Indiana LAClippers 2.31 to 2.10
                                37A SAS2 fade Minn Utah 1.10 to 1.00
                                38A SAS2 fade Portland Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00

                                SAS2 will be ramping up tomorrow along with EX

                                87A EX fade Milwaukee Houston 1.10 to win 1.00

                                101B H3 fade LAClippers Indiana 2.31 to won 2.10
                                102B S3 fade Miami Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10
                                103A S3 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00

                                OK - lets do it

                                24-31 the last 7 days!

                                I see the "D" games were 2-2.
                                Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-18-14, 09:57 AM.
                                Comment
                                • Trep
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-25-13
                                  • 375

                                  #506
                                  Clippers Milwaukee looks like a mixup
                                  Comment
                                  • Grinder12000
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-21-11
                                    • 1809

                                    #507
                                    Originally posted by Trep
                                    Clippers Milwaukee looks like a mixup
                                    Its how I'm planning on getting some wins LOL

                                    updating
                                    Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-18-14, 09:34 AM.
                                    Comment
                                    • Grinder12000
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-21-11
                                      • 1809

                                      #508
                                      Holy Crap = just checked in for the 1st time - this is embarrassing. I apologize
                                      Comment
                                      • Grinder12000
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-21-11
                                        • 1809

                                        #509
                                        01/19/14

                                        All systems combined straight betting 206-177
                                        All chases Tot 28.81u and sinking
                                        all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

                                        Ridin' The Storm Out

                                        SAS2 30-24 +0.92u
                                        36B SAS2 fade Indiana LAClippers 2.31 to 2.10 Lose
                                        37A SAS2 fade Minn Utah 1.10 to 1.00 Lose
                                        38A SAS2 fade Portland Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

                                        EX = 80-65 +5.19u
                                        87A EX fade Milwaukee Houston 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

                                        S3,H3,O1 = 93-82 +22.70u
                                        101B H3 fade LAClippers Indiana 2.31 to won 2.10 Win
                                        102B S3 fade Miami Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
                                        103A S3 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
                                        S S S Sunday final answer

                                        38A SAS2 fade Sacramento Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
                                        39A SAS2 fade Phoenix Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 **(1)
                                        40A SAS2 fade LALakers Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
                                        41A SAS2 fade Oklahoma City Sacramento 1.10 to win 1.00

                                        87B EX fade Milwaukee San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10
                                        88A EX fade Boston Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00

                                        98C H3 Phoenix 4.85 to win 4.41 **(1)

                                        I hope we will look back in a few weeks and laugh!

                                        I'm seriously stunned at how all of these systems are getting spanked. is this better then a long slow leak or is it better the pipe burst. OR is this how this system works, HOT HOT and COLD COLD.
                                        Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-19-14, 09:04 AM.
                                        Comment
                                        • Grinder12000
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-21-11
                                          • 1809

                                          #510
                                          01/20/14

                                          All systems combined straight betting 210-179
                                          All chases Tot 36.21u
                                          all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

                                          Winner winner chicken dinner

                                          SAS2 32-26 +0.72u
                                          38A SAS2 fade Sacramento Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                          39A SAS2 fade Phoenix Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                                          40A SAS2 fade LALakers Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                                          41A SAS2 fade Oklahoma City Sacramento 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

                                          EX = 82-65 +8.29u
                                          87B EX fade Milwaukee San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                                          88A EX fade Boston Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

                                          S3,H3,O1 = 94-82 +27.110u
                                          98C H3 Phoenix 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
                                          The Monday Buffet of known games - Final finally

                                          ##C SAS2 Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41 ***(3)
                                          36C SAS2 fade Indiana Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41 ***(2)
                                          38B SAS2 fade Portland Houston 2.31 to win 2.10
                                          40B SAS2 LALakers 2.31 to win 2.10 ***(5)
                                          42A SAS2 fade Memphis New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(4)
                                          43A SAS2 fade Chicago LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(5)
                                          44A SAS2 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
                                          45A SAS2 Philly 1.10 to win 1.00


                                          85C EX NYKnicks 4.84 to win 4.41 ***(1)
                                          89A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)
                                          90A EX fade New Orleans Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(4)

                                          105A H3 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
                                          100B H3 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)
                                          104A H3 Washington 1.10 to win 1.00
                                          106A H3 fade Indiana Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(2)
                                          102C S3 fade Miami Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41 ***(3)
                                          107A O1 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(3) *** O1's are 27-15 in "A' games

                                          I'm back home now with my comfort computer and you KNOW I'll have some data looking at the last disastor of a week to see what the hell happened.

                                          Every set of systems all took a big dump in the same week. Let's hope we clean up and get things back to so semblance of normal and I hope y'all did not lose a LOT! (I did but I sort of have to now don't I?)

                                          One word of caution about "D" games which I say don't play but will post them when I remember.

                                          SAS2 is 3-7 for -58 units
                                          EX is 2-4 for -22.24 units
                                          S3H3O1 is 3-4 for -12 uinits

                                          just sayin.
                                          Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-20-14, 11:30 AM.
                                          Comment
                                          • Grinder12000
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-21-11
                                            • 1809

                                            #511
                                            ALERT Lots of morning games today.

                                            added to the Monday MLK buffet

                                            43A SAS2 fade Chicago LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(5)
                                            44A SAS2 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
                                            45A SAS2 Philly 1.10 to win 1.00


                                            Monday simple version

                                            Atlanta 11.90 to win 10.82 go Atlanta!!
                                            Golden State 5.61 to win 5.41
                                            Houston 2.31 to win 2.10
                                            LALakers 3.41 to win 3.10
                                            Philly 1.10 to win 1.00
                                            NYKnicks 4.85 to win 4.41
                                            Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
                                            Washing ton 1.10 to win 1.00


                                            FINALLY - MAYBE WE HIT BOTTOM??? I guess today will tell

                                            7 day moving average of winning pct.

                                            Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-20-14, 11:03 AM.
                                            Comment
                                            • alexknyc
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 03-22-11
                                              • 861

                                              #512
                                              I don't see a Utah game on the schedule. Am I missing something?
                                              Comment
                                              • Grinder12000
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 04-21-11
                                                • 1809

                                                #513
                                                Originally posted by alexknyc
                                                I don't see a Utah game on the schedule. Am I missing something?

                                                OOPS- that is on the 21st tomorrow. TY

                                                7 week moving average of the 7 day moving average has been a pretty good barometer of direction.

                                                Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-20-14, 11:10 AM.
                                                Comment
                                                • Grinder12000
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-21-11
                                                  • 1809

                                                  #514
                                                  01/21/14

                                                  All systems combined straight betting 199-164 corrected
                                                  All chases Tot 47.07u corrected
                                                  all win and losses include games that cancel each other out


                                                  SAS2 40-29 +4.76u corrected
                                                  ##C SAS2 Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
                                                  36C SAS2 fade Indiana Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE
                                                  38B SAS2 fade Portland Houston 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                                                  40B SAS2 LALakers 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                                                  42A SAS2 fade Memphis New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                  43A SAS2 fade Chicago LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                  44A SAS2 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                  45A SAS2 Philly 1.10 to win 1.00WIN

                                                  EX =63-49 +14.20u corrected
                                                  85C EX NYKnicks 4.84 to win 4.41 LOST
                                                  89A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
                                                  90A EX fade New Orleans Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST

                                                  S3,H3,O1 = 96-86 +28.11u
                                                  105A H3 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00LOST
                                                  100B H3 NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
                                                  104A H3 Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
                                                  106A H3 fade Indiana Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                                                  102C S3 fade Miami Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
                                                  107A O1 fade Miami Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

                                                  Tuesday's known games

                                                  37B SAS2 fade Minnesota Utah 2.31 to win .10
                                                  41B SAS2 fade Oklahoma City Portland 2.31 to win 2.10

                                                  90B EX fade New Orleans Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10
                                                  91A EX fade Boston Miami 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                  92A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                  107A H3 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00
                                                  103B S3 Utah 2.31 to win 2.10

                                                  Have to reload EX and SAS2.

                                                  SAS2 posted "A' plays are 73% 29-17
                                                  EX has problems after the "B" games - good idea to make them a 2 game chase
                                                  H3 are 14-7 AFTER the "A" game and 15-7 including a "D" game
                                                  S3 are . . blah! break even at best
                                                  O1 are 28-15 in "A" games

                                                  NOTE you will notice corrections in totals. i had mixd up back testing numbers with posted.
                                                  Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-21-14, 09:47 AM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • unitedlad
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 01-10-12
                                                    • 845

                                                    #515
                                                    Very interesting work your doing here. Keep it up.

                                                    By the way, I think it's Sacramento that's the 90B play today instead of Memphis
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Grinder12000
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 04-21-11
                                                      • 1809

                                                      #516
                                                      BTW - i'll have a complete breakdown of all systems tonight or tomorrow.

                                                      also - I am all over the Seahawks. I am surprised and elated they are dogs.

                                                      NOTE- as of today we are in a BUY mode for the systems. I'll explain when I get to a real computer.

                                                      if we would have stopped at the sell indicator we would have not played the 4o-46 11 day run
                                                      Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-21-14, 12:17 PM.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Mako-SBR
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 10-15-13
                                                        • 492

                                                        #517
                                                        Agree on Seahawks, 77% of all public money is going on Denver at the moment, hoping that keeps moving the line and we can get Seattle to a nice round +3 or even a sexy +3.5 by the end of the week...

                                                        Enjoying this technical analysis of the system Grinder, the buy and sell indicators are easy to spot and we're definitely on the buy-side as you mentioned. Great work.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Grinder12000
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-21-11
                                                          • 1809

                                                          #518
                                                          Seahawks - my theory - then off to a City Council meeting

                                                          Seattle was the most penalized team in the league right? Denver and Manning are awesome and in a regular season game I would take Denver. But in the Super Bowl the refs "let them play". You have to REALLY grab a guy to get a flag. The Seattle defense, because they will be "allowed to play" will make the Denver offense miserable. The great equalizer.

                                                          On Offense, Wilson (I watched him play for UW Wisconsin - love the guy) will be on the run all day which is fine for him. The Denver defense rushes up the middle to get to the QB which hurts guys like Brady but is horrible against guys like Wilson who are great outside the pocket. Denver does not have the speed on the ends to box Wilson in.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Grinder12000
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-21-11
                                                            • 1809

                                                            #519
                                                            01/21/14

                                                            All systems combined straight betting 201-169 corrected
                                                            all win and losses include games that cancel each other out


                                                            What happened! I leave for a second and Portland loses??

                                                            SAS2 40-31 +0.14u
                                                            37B SAS2 fade Minnesota Utah 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
                                                            41B SAS2 fade Oklahoma City Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE

                                                            EX =65-50 +16.20u corrected
                                                            90B EX fade New Orleans Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
                                                            91A EX fade Boston Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
                                                            92A EX Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

                                                            H3 29-28 +11.72
                                                            107A H3 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

                                                            S3 28-29 +8.07
                                                            103B S3 Utah 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE

                                                            Wednesdays games - final

                                                            41C SAS2 fade Oklahoma City San Antonio 4.85 to win 4.41

                                                            91B EX fade Boston Washington 2.31 to win 2.10

                                                            100C H3 NYKnicks 4.85 to win 4.41
                                                            104B H3 Washington 2.31 to win 2.10
                                                            105B H3 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10
                                                            106B H3 fade Indiana Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10

                                                            "D" games - play at your own risk
                                                            SAS2 fade Indiana
                                                            EX NYKnicks

                                                            DOES NOT INCLUDE TUESDAY GAMES

                                                            What I have done is gone back and looked at all the games for each system - published AND backtested. This should give you an idea on how to proceed with YOUR take on the systems.

                                                            SAS2 - trigger - a look at the upcoming schedule after a team wins/loses 2 ATS

                                                            Published
                                                            +4.76u 3-game chase +0.10 per chase
                                                            +8.10u Straight betting +0.12 per game

                                                            "A" 29-17 +10.30u
                                                            "B" 7-8 -3.78u
                                                            "C" 4-4 -1.76u
                                                            "D" 2-1

                                                            Published + backtested
                                                            +69.14u 3-game chase +0.40 per chase
                                                            +33.50u Straight betting +0.12 per game

                                                            "A" 98-73 +17.70u
                                                            "B" 42-31 +16.59u
                                                            "C" 20-11 +34.85u
                                                            "D" 3-7


                                                            EX - trigger - Using RPI as a trigger

                                                            Published
                                                            +14.20u 3-game chase +0.22 per chase
                                                            +9.10u Straight betting +0.08 per game

                                                            "A" 34-32 -1.20u
                                                            "B" 24-10 +27.30u
                                                            "C" 5-7 -11.90u
                                                            "D" 4-2

                                                            Published + backtested
                                                            +29.28u 3-game chase +0.32 per chase
                                                            +18.90u Straight betting +0.13 per game

                                                            "A" 51-41 +5.90u
                                                            "B" 29-13 +30.87u
                                                            "C" 6-7 -7.49u
                                                            "D" 4-2


                                                            H3 - trigger - 4 game home stand

                                                            Published
                                                            +12.82u 3-game chase +0.39 per chase
                                                            +0.30u Straight betting +0.01 per game

                                                            "A" 14-19 -6.90u
                                                            "B" 11-7+26.93u
                                                            "C" 4-1 +12.79u
                                                            "D" 1-0

                                                            S3 - trigger - after certain teams win/lose 3 ATS

                                                            Published
                                                            +10.38u 3-game chase +0.33 per chase
                                                            -2.90u Straight betting -0.05 per game

                                                            "A" 13-18 -6.80u
                                                            "B" 9-8 +0.42u
                                                            "C" 6-2 +16.76u
                                                            "D" 1-1

                                                            O1 - trigger - after certain teams play an OT game

                                                            Published
                                                            +16.96u 3-game chase +0.16 per chase
                                                            -9.00u Straight betting +0.13 per game

                                                            "A" 29-15 +12.50u
                                                            "B" 6-9 -8.19u
                                                            "C" 5-4 +2.65u
                                                            "D" 2-2

                                                            For Straight Bettors

                                                            An interesting note - my winning pct chart has a 5 week moving average trend line. Straight betting when the line is BELOW the dark pct line the systems are 171-105 for 61.9%.

                                                            When the trend line is ABOVE the pct line the games are 141-134 for 51.2%

                                                            Might be something to watch. We are in a BUY mode as of today.

                                                            Playing chases ONLY during the BUY times does not lead to greater profits.
                                                            NOTE as of Tuesday night we are still in a BUY mode. Oddly LOL
                                                            Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-22-14, 11:36 AM.
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                                                            • miczz14
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 01-22-13
                                                              • 146

                                                              #520
                                                              nba is so frustrating to watch

                                                              OKC fade should have ended by NO! it got fixed written all over it. And now OKC is +6 vs SAS wtf?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ChicagoCover
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 07-11-10
                                                                • 661

                                                                #521
                                                                The OKC +6 line seems too good to be true anyway. Think thats a line for the public to jump all over, but I could be wrong.

                                                                I personally like Phoenix plus the points, with another team (the pacers) that're hot only having to defeat five points also seems too good to be true. Again, I could be wrong.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ChicagoCover
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 07-11-10
                                                                  • 661

                                                                  #522
                                                                  If the Phoenix Suns line get's to 6, recommend taking it.




                                                                  ||sorry for bothering your system thread with my opinion||
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Grinder12000
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 04-21-11
                                                                    • 1809

                                                                    #523
                                                                    Not a problem with comments. I. Sure there will be a crap load of more plays on e I get codfee in me. I was feeling good at the break in council last night (what to do with unstackable sewage sludge was a big topic) and then I see Durante scored 11 points in the last 3 minutes.

                                                                    For or any long time followers any game with Portland is a curse.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • miczz14
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 01-22-13
                                                                      • 146

                                                                      #524
                                                                      Originally posted by ChicagoCover
                                                                      The OKC +6 line seems too good to be true anyway. Think thats a line for the public to jump all over, but I could be wrong.

                                                                      I personally like Phoenix plus the points, with another team (the pacers) that're hot only having to defeat five points also seems too good to be true. Again, I could be wrong.
                                                                      thing is OKC +6 line was already live even before POR vs OKC started
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Grinder12000
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-21-11
                                                                        • 1809

                                                                        #525
                                                                        CHARTS

                                                                        This first chart is if you are chasing the systems days are across the bottom (without yesterdays stats I see)



                                                                        Same as above except this is if you were straight betting



                                                                        This one is the BUY/SELL chart. 7 day moving average and the trend line is a 5 week moving average. I really don't know if this works. It's one of those things where just because it's charted does not mean its relevant - long term will tell I guess



                                                                        Using the above chart - the blue line is if you straight bet ONLY during BUY periods (when the thin line is below the thick line on the above chart) and the red line is betting during SELL times (thin line above thick).



                                                                        Things like this LOOK good but you always wonder if past results are an indication to future results! We won't know. the season is 1/2 over so . . . . . .
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                                                                        Last edited by Grinder12000; 01-22-14, 09:13 AM.
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