MrXYZ's NRL thread

[benrama]

Great regular season record Mr XYZ, look forward to your insight for the finals.

Epic month of sport coming up with NRL and AFL finals, RWC, US open - going to have to take some time off work

[MrXYZ]

Great regular season record Mr XYZ, look forward to your insight for the finals.

Epic month of sport coming up with NRL and AFL finals, RWC, US open - going to have to take some time off work

Thanks & good luck, a lot of action this month! With 5 legit premiership contenders, this year's NRL finals is tough & I'm predicting record profits for the bookies. Hopefully we'll cash some winners on the way.

[MrXYZ]

With no Monday Night NRL this week I'm taking a shot at today's American College Football game.

MARYLAND TERRAPINS vs MIAMI-FLORIDA HURRICANES
MARYLAND ML @1.52

[ExodusNZ]

With no Monday Night NRL this week I'm taking a shot at today's American College Football game.

MARYLAND TERRAPINS vs MIAMI-FLORIDA HURRICANES
MARYLAND ML @1.52

Wish I saw this before, I would have given my bet here.

I put Maryland Total team points Over 24 - Currently at 20 (and its half time!)

[benrama]

MrXYZ - I know you like cappers who know their stuff, so you should check out Boom_Boom and rush over at the Covers forum - they were on Miami +4 tonight, so that's what I took - hopefully we both win.

I actually find finals to be the most profitable time of all, as you can bank on 100% motivation. Going to spend some solid hours on the games this weekend, initial leans are Tigers +2.5, Brisbane -2.5 and Newcastle 1H spread.

[MrXYZ]

With no Monday Night NRL this week I'm taking a shot at today's American College Football game.

MARYLAND TERRAPINS vs MIAMI-FLORIDA HURRICANES
MARYLAND ML @1.52

Terrible bankroll management as I threw too many units on this one. Down by 1 point with less than 2 minutes to go, thought it was all over with that sick feeling in the stomach we all know and love.

But that intercept touchdown was pure joy to watch. Miami played a lot better than everyone expected & Maryland's offence was sub-par. The suspensions inspired the Canes & the rain had a big influence too.

Even though it paid off, today's an example of why I never post statements like "going big" or "10 unit hit" on my plays. Would hate to take down other bettors with me & have seen too many guys get buried on SBR.

I had 2 close calls on big plays this weekend & this sort of thing will inevitably wipe me out, so I'm imposing the strict money rules I've been putting off for too long.

[benrama]

That was one of the more brutal beats this year for me, wasn't on it for more than 2 units, but still there's a 4 unit swing right there. Anyway I made about 10 units on the weekend tailing the guys I mentioned so I can't complain. Looking forward to NFL season, I personally can't stand watching MLB and it doesn't look hopeful for an NBA season this year.

[MrXYZ]

Too much randomness in MLB and I'd go nuts with the day in day out grind. But then again the NBA's almost the same. With games aired in the mornings in Australia it was almost a full time operation to stay on top of last season, watching during the day & capping them at night. I had some good profits with the Australian A League soccer this summer so if hoops get cancelled that'll keep me going.

[MrXYZ]

Wish I saw this before, I would have given my bet here.

I put Maryland Total team points Over 24 - Currently at 20 (and its half time!)

Congrats, nice hit on the total, you definitely earned it after having to sit through that second half.

[MrXYZ]

Finals week 1, from Centrebet:



Rain in Sydney has the potential to create even more drama in the Dragons/Tigers game. It could very well come down to one costly wet weather mistake.

[benrama]

Really wanted to go to the Dragons/Tigers game, but with the RWC, and AFL finals on at the same time, and the potential for rain, it really makes watching it at home with mates and a few beers the attractive option.

I really can't see any angle at all for this game, except, perhaps, Saints 1H as that has really been their strength this season. Have spent most of my time capping AFL this week so interested to see what you end up playing.

[MrXYZ]

Week 1 kicks off at last! Like I said earlier 6 of the 8 teams involved have a genuine chance of making it to the Grand Final. Punters tend to play their biases in finals series & get killed for it so stick to manageable unit sizes or be willing to call a no play as this year's race is the most unpredicable in years.

Friday 9 September
WESTS TIGERS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
DRAGONS ML @1.75
GAME TOTAL UNDER 34.5 @1.80

Going with the Dragons in a low scoring game. Though the Tigers are attracting a lot of well deserved praise for their outstanding footy of late, Bennet's squad have been under the radar as contenders & I see them primed to surprise everyone who's written them off. The rain throws an extra element of unpredictability in this one & I'm sticking to the ML.

Good luck everyone

[MrXYZ]

Friday 9 September
WESTS TIGERS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
DRAGONS ML @1.75
GAME TOTAL UNDER 34.5 @1.80

Wow, a total meltdown by the Dragons in the second half, a display.of everything that's gone wrong this year. Cashed the total though to salvage the night. I threw more bucks at the under when it was 33.5 @1.90 & 34.0 @1.90 at Centrebet as I was expecting a score no higher than 18-12. Those last 10 minutes were tense, but thankfully scraped home with Benji's help.

1-1
2011 NRL regular season record: 77-62 55.4%

[kingsr]

Dragons cannot chase points, they buckle! Not to take away from the tigers spectacular 2nd half display

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 10 September
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NZL WARRIORS
BRONCOS -2.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL UNDER 41.5 @1.90

Very evenly matched teams but I give the edge to the Broncos & they should take this one by 4 points.

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs NQL COWBOYS
COWBOYS +6.5 @1.92

Cowboys have been ordinary lately but this is the finals and even though Manly are big favourites to win we'll see a closer game than everyone's expecting.

[IDunno89]

Also took the under 41.5
But I took manly -6.5 if thurston plays the same as he has for the last 3 weeks this is easy money

Good luck

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 10 September
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NZL WARRIORS
BRONCOS -2.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL UNDER 41.5 @1.90


MANLY SEA EAGLES vs NQL COWBOYS
COWBOYS +6.5 @1.92

On the wrong end of a 2nd half collapse again as the Sea Eagles crushed a pathetic Cowboys, after such a strong opening 40 minutes. Broncos wiped the floor with the Warriors but killed the total with a massive win.

1-2
Finals record: 2-3 40%

NRL regular season record: 77-62 55.4%

[benrama]

Broncos were the most impressive in the games so far, though with some dubious help from the Ref early on - with it being Lockyear's swansong year they are going to be really tough to beat, especially if they can make the GF and get Thaiday back. Warriors really aren't made out for finals football, they may well get a reprieve as I don't think Storm lose today, but I'm pretty sure I'll be fading them next weekend.

Really disappointed in NQ, thought they were really a chance of the upset there and then it just all fell apart. Not to worry - if someone said to you I'll give you a 8-0 lead going into the 2H with a +6.5 on the full game spread you'd take it every time.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 11 September
MELBOURNE STORM vs NEWCASTLE
STORM -10.5 @1.92
PLAYER PROP: BILLY SLATER TO SCORE A TRY @1.50

Storm have lost 2 in a row while the Knights come off an emphatic win over Souths in the lead up. Today should see the minor premiers at their best with a covincing win. Also taking a shot at Dally M winner Slater scoring a try.

[MrXYZ]

Adding:
AFL/NRL PARLAY:
CARLTON/STORM @1.80

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 11 September
MELBOURNE STORM vs NEWCASTLE
STORM -10.5 @1.92
PLAYER PROP: BILLY SLATER TO SCORE A TRY @1.50
AFL/NRL PARLAY:
CARLTON/STORM @1.80

A tough beat with the Storm, they did just enough to win & didn't cover. I've had enough close calls go my way & just the way it goes. The parlay was easy money with a good sized bet never in doubt. Carlton smashing the bombers & Storm cruising home made it one of my favourite plays of the year.

A bit of a letdown but I tailed the dogs you guys posted in RWC & it was a lot of fun watching them all hit yesterday.

I may have one or two more plays & chime in with my views on the upcoming games but am pretty much done for the NRL season & have decided to cash out after a solid but gruelling year of sports betting.

The upcoming games will be thrillers & very difficult to find an angle to play. I'd rather enjoy them as a fan & it's time for a reward. The combination of hard work & luck paid off so I'm taking off on a holiday at the end of the week.

Thanks for sharing your support & knowledge. Good luck with the rest of the finals season.

[benrama]

Good work mate, you had a fantastic season - a holiday well earnt. I'll be betting significant $ on only a few games from here on in too, will of course have some action wagers, but small enough to be just cheering on a good close game without too much invested in the outcome. At least - that's what I'm telling myself now

Keep chipping in with your thoughts on the finals if/when you get the chance!

[MrXYZ]

As I said above I've wrapped up my NRL season for the year, but couldn't help myself & set aside a couple of units for a pick or two before my holiday.

Friday 16 September
WESTS TIGERS vs NZL WARRIORS
WARRIORS +8.5 @1.92

All signs point to another convincing Tigers win but these two teams are very well matched. Having looked at the finals scenarios for the Tigers, I'm convinced the Warriors offer a serious threat to them getting to the next phase. It seems ridiculous looking at how convincingly the New Zealanders lost to the Broncos, but if they decide to show up it could be close. Benji's squad should be too good today but an ML @1.34 doesn't compensate you for the risks.

Every finals game from now on is close to a 50/50 proposition. Even if I'm proven wrong today, taking the Warriors +8.5 in this situation is excellent value & worth considering if you're on the sidelines.

Good luck today.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 16 September
WESTS TIGERS vs NZL WARRIORS
WARRIORS +8.5 @1.92

What a fightback, capped off by that unbelievable try with less than 2 minutes to go! Warriors deserved their stunning win. Tigers couldn't put them away & paid the price, as did the punters who lost their $10k+ bets looking for easy money @1.33.

I'm very happy to close out my NRL betting season cashing a winner, good luck everyone with the rest of the finals.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 17 September
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
(No play on this one)

Just wanted to add my 2c to this one. It could be very similar to what we saw last night. Although I expect we'll see a Broncos/Storm grand final in two weeks & they should get the win here, the down & out Dragons will throw everything at this one more roll of the dice.

My biggest play of the year was on the Broncos last time these teams met & it came down to a couple of Lockyer moments that got them home. They were my money team this season but I'm enjoying this one as a fan tonight.

Just about everyone's piling on the favourites -3.5 line and it's defintely the smarter play. They have struck form when it counts & are building serious momentum to take out the premiership in what would be a a fitting end to Lockyer's amazing career. But with an all-star lineup & Bennet at the helm, the Dragons are very capable of shocking the Suncorp crowd & ending the party early. Unlikely but something to consider as this is finals footy where sudden death means anything can happen.

Should be a thriller, good luck today.

[MrXYZ]

After seeing that lock thread I had to throw in my insights & I hope some of you guys took my advice to sidestep this one. With the Dragons coming within a point of a tremendous upset after the Broncos had it won at 12-6, the unpredictability of the situation had me call it a no play. Like I said earlier every finals game is a coin toss from now on. Playing your biases & opinions is costly at this time of the year.

Even though it was low on flair, the display of guts & skill from both sides was outstanding. Let's hope the rest of the finals come up with footy to match what we saw yesterday, one of the greatest games in recent years.

[Beniphone]

Everygame is a "coin toss" if ya look too far into it, 1-12 margin was the smart play knowing the chances of these teams getting blown out was slim.

You done in the NRL for the year mate?

[MrXYZ]

It would've been sweet to take that 1-12 & sit back, but I'm sure some punters out there did a Warriors +8.5/Dragons+3.5 parlay & feel like kings for a day.

Yeah, I'm done for the NRL this year, prefer the regular season grind & find the finals are too unpredictable this year, it'd be easy to give back my profits. I track the threads throughout SBR & it's something that happens regularly, guys have a good run, get overconfident going into the finals only to get buried. It's like a reward to put up my feet to enjoy it as a fan after the hard work & stress of capping this season's NRL.

Good luck Beni

[Beniphone]

u2 mate

[aunty jack]

I've been meaning to congratulate you on the solid NRL season. Well done.

It was a mighty match last night... with Lockyer coming through despite having half his face caved in. He sounded like a stroke victim in the post-match interview, but it just underlined his status as one of the game's legends.

The Dragons dug deep as well... and played their best game in months.

Just heard that Lockyer has had surgery, with three titanium plates inserted in his cheek. He's a 50-50 prospect of lining up against Manly, but to be honest, I think the Broncos have already played their grand final. Thaiday is coming back from suspension, but with or without Lockyer, I think Brisbane is done. They should be satisfied with their season, though...

[kingsr]

Agree Brisbane are done without locky, even if he plays, which would be stupid, he'd only be a liability to his team mates

[hawley]

Peter Wallace leading the Broncos

No Locky no chance.

Hope he is fit to play but at his age it will be a real battle.

[MrXYZ]

Thanks Aunty Jack

Lockyer has to play or the Broncos are finished. Even if they have to come up with some faceplate to protect him, I'm sure he'll be there against Manly.

[MrXYZ]

I'm back from my holiday, hope you guys cashed some wins on the rest of the finals. Couldn't help myself & had a play at the Grand Final/Manly ML. Not much value but easy money, no way the Warriors were going to come up with another perfect away game after knocking off the Storm.

Sunday 16 October
AUSTRALIA vs NEW ZEALAND
AUSTRALIA -11.5

It's been a gruelling NRL season but both teams will be fired up so I'm expecting another intense encounter with the Aussies proving too strong for an injury hit Kiwi side. Lockyer's last game on home soil & a warm up for the Four Nations so we're in for a treat.

A lot of points to cover but they should do it. Although I may be proved wrong, expecting it to go out to -12.5 which would make it a pass, so I'm getting this one early.

Good Luck

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 16 October
AUSTRALIA vs NEW ZEALAND
AUSTRALIA -11.5 @1.91

Never in doubt. Kangaroos struck early with two tries in the opening 10 minutes & then set out to steamroll the Kiwis in a convincing 42-6 victory. Cash that easy win!