Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

[bombCanada]

NHL Big Dog is Colorado tonight at Chicago. good luck!

[rkelly110]

We needed a ton of luck, where was it? I got my ass handed to me yesterday.
Must've been that 1st quarter moon last night.

[bombCanada]

NHL big dog is Edmonton at San Jose tonight.

[bombCanada]

And EDM wins in a runaway. There might just be something to this big dog nhl stuff.

[rkelly110]

Cool, I needed that to make up a little for yesterday.

2 of 3 on the 1.45 system too. 20 of 31 64% so far for Jan.

Chizzy, how are your labbys working? I know you're betting ML on these big dogs.
How do you make a line? When the line clears, you just take what ever profit comes
from it?

[bombCanada]

NJD tonight. Good luck!

[chizzy]

Cool, I needed that to make up a little for yesterday. 2 of 3 on the 1.45 system too. 20 of 31 64% so far for Jan. Chizzy, how are your labbys working? I know you're betting ML on these big dogs. How do you make a line? When the line clears, you just take what ever profit comes from it?

What i had been doing was making a line and running the labby like it was originally designed

10 10 10 10

and adding a loss as an additional number to the end.

10 10 10 10 20

but i found it to take a lot of time to clear a line if i lost a few in a row.
so when i saw JW's version of the line where instead of adding the loss as a new number, he was dividing it between the remaining numbers i started following that way but with 4 lines so as to spread the loss out in quite low numbers

so...

10 10 10 10
10 10 10 10
10 10 10 10
10 10 10 10

and with a loss it would become

11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25
11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25
11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25
11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25

so this keeps my bets down and doesn't increase the amount of wins i need to clear my lines because i would still remove the 2 numbers for every win.
and this has been working incredibly well, especially with huge ML underdog clearing numbers quickly and without ever having to risk anything big on them.

[chizzy]

I have also been watching another thread on here and using his dog system (dogs are all i play) where he selects the dog of the day that is the highest on the points standings against all dogs for that day. its won like the last 5 of 6 SU i think with PHI losing to BOS as the only loss ive had on that so far.
VAN was the play today and that went well.

[easywinner]

I have also been watching another thread on here and using his dog system (dogs are all i play) where he selects the dog of the day that is the highest on the points standings against all dogs for that day. its won like the last 5 of 6 SU i think with PHI losing to BOS as the only loss ive had on that so far.
VAN was the play today and that went well.

Sounds interesting to me. What's the name of the thread so i can look it up? Thanks.

[bombCanada]

but i found it to take a lot of time to clear a line if i lost a few in a row.

Why is this bad?

With this particular system, most days there is 1 play/day. What's the application for multiple lines?

Appreciate your support in the thread!

[bombCanada]

Devils won outright last night.

Today's Big Dog NHL play is co-dogs Edmonton and Columbus. I'll make a half wager on each.

[rkelly110]

Thanks Chizzy, just getting an idea of how people do lab lines with different systems.

I was thinking for a dog only line, start with one number and build your line as you lose.
5 lose,5 lose,5 win, 5 win, start new line. Since a win would almost knock off 2 numbers,
depending on the odds. Though, you won't have a set profit per line, you would still
profit.

I don't know, just my thoughts.

How 'bout those Devils! It was a big night betting on New Jersey. NBA Nets won ATS
against the Lakers as the big dog of the night.

[chizzy]

Sounds interesting to me. What's the name of the thread so i can look it up? Thanks.

NHL 2 'dog system. (begins 1/7/11)

[chizzy]

Why is this bad? With this particular system, most days there is 1 play/day. What's the application for multiple lines? Appreciate your support in the thread!

Its not at all bad. and for this system alone there is only 1 pick a day. however i am playing the largest dog SU as well as any dogs with a PL of 1.45 and higher SU. plus the dog with the highest points ranking SU. so i end up with 4 or 5 bets on dogs SU per day and am using more lines to spread them out abit. and also to spread any losses. plus i am fairly impatient and like seeing lines cleared faster so not adding the loss as a new number allows me to do this. and this thread has my whole hearted support. thanks goes to you and rkelly for continuing it and keeping track of numbers for us.

[bombCanada]

Columbus covered and Edmonton lost... onward!

[rkelly110]

Thanks Chizzy, we have to thank floridagolfer for giving us this opportunity
to bet dogs in this sport. Thanks florida!

2 of 3 @ 1.45 and over system wins. My big dog was Edmonton which lost.

New Jersey Nets were the big dog again in NBA and won ATS.

Onward!

[rkelly110]

I was thinking of a Fibonacci method for NHL dogs. The minimum I can bet is $5.

$5- 6- 7- 9- 12- 17- 25 amount to bet.
(1)-(2)-(3)-(5)-(8)-(13)-(21) Fib sequence. (add previous 2 numbers for next bet)

After a win, take your profit. Restart at $5.
At odds over 2, I think you could make a killing.
Thoughts?

[rkelly110]

A little late, but the big dog is Ottawa. 4 plays on the 1.45.

Let's get 'em!

[rkelly110]

Just did Fibonacci method for Jan biggest dog.

Bet $84, won $91.70 +$7.70 +1.54 units @ $5.
One losing streak at 3.

At least it's on the plus side.

[bombCanada]

rkelly tx for putting up Ottawa yesterday. I had house full of people and forgot all about it. That said, they got it over early and lost to the Caps 1-3.

And what a shocking win by the NY Jets...

[rkelly110]

No problem, I know you like to do it, so I waited.

Ottawa couldn't pull it off or the 1.45. 2 of 4, 1 of 4 SU, small loss.

Using the correct Fibonacci sequence for Jan shows a different out come.
Starting from 5 the sequence would be, 5-8-13-21-34-55.

Bet $125, won $153.84 +$28.84 +5.77 units for 16 days.

I want to see what Dec looks like, will post later.

[rkelly110]

Dec Fibonacci using correct sequence. 5-8-13-21-34-55 for biggest dog in NHL.

Bet $212, won $278.07 +$66.07 +13.21 units. Longest losing sequence 3.
3 split bets. ( 2 teams w/ same odds) Avg winning odds 2.77. Highest bet made was $21.

These were all dogs, some days had less than 4 games and according to the original system,
no bet. The numbers above would be slightly better.

When a line wins, start a new one from the beginning of the sequence.

I might add this to my arsenal.

[rkelly110]

Sorry, I'm late. The dog of the day is playing now, Carolina. Also, a 1.45 play.
It wasn't a 1.45 play at press time, but was before game time.
At press time, Calgary is a play on the 1.45.

I'm going to start a Fib line on this game. Since it's the biggest dog.

GL!

[rkelly110]

Carolina, along with us, pulled our pants down and took it where the sun doesn't shine!

Maybe Calgary can pull it off. GL

[bombCanada]

I'm on calgary, have a cold and managed to completely miss the fact there were early games today.

[bombCanada]

OK! The better-late-than-never Big Dog NHL play-o-de-day, Calgary, covered.

I've got a head cold and am having a horrible time focusing.

[rkelly110]

See what happens when you have people over? Get better BC.

Crazy day in hockey yesterday, at least for us anyway.
Carolina was a dog play, but wasn't a 1.45 play until game time. We got spanked.
At press time Calgary was a play on the 1.45 and wasn't at game time. They won
on the PL.

For my records, I'll mark it 1 of 2.

Fib line lost @ $5, next bet, $8 on todays dog.

Yesterdays NBA big dog, Sacramento, won on PS. That's 3 in a row. Keep an eye out.
A qualifying big dog is ML odds 5 and over.

[oklahoma]

Fib line lost @ $5, next bet, $8 on todays dog.

Yesterdays NBA big dog, Sacramento, won on PS. That's 3 in a row. Keep an eye out.
A qualifying big dog is ML odds 5 and over.

im definitely gonna keep an eye on the Fibonacci strategy you have going. when betting the NBA dogs that are over 5, youre actually betting the pointspread rather than moneyline?

[bombCanada]

tonight's Big Dog is Columbus on the puck line.

[bombCanada]

rkelly thanks for your kind wishes, and you're right, I'm guessing one of my guests germed me.

Do you find that 5 odds typically correlates to a certain point spread?

Also, there are some absolutely hopeless games out there, where the dog is (deservedly) +2300 or something silly like that. Do you play those games too, or do you screen them out ?

Back on the 15th, for example, Cleveland was +3200 at Denver, and they got crushed. Why bother?

[rkelly110]

Yes oklahoma, bet the PS. Just use the ML as a guide. If you get an even number, bet the hook.
I've been buying 1.5 pts to be safe. My odds for that are 1.71. Lost a few by 1/2 pt.

Sorry, I'm still using decimal, because I get true odds that way.

I found the 5.00 and over, but closer to 5 is best for the NBA dogs.
PS's have been around +9 or 10. I don't have records.

Like your Cleveland example BC, they were at 10.00. I've been laying off them because they
suck. Though they did win one game on the PS, being dogs, I think.

That NBA system is James Jones'. He sells it for $97 as a stand alone system. I don't have
the pdf. There is a thread in the service plays section on here, if you want to learn more.

I'll need time to go back and back check and see whats up.

At press time there are 3 games for the 1.45 system. Let's get those bad boys!

[bombCanada]

Wow what book are you using? For the 1.45 system I see Columbus and... who? Caps opened at 1.45 and got worse, Redwings opened at 1.44 and got worse.

[bombCanada]

And Columbus covers.

[rkelly110]

I use BetUS. At press time, (when I print) around 11 am, there were 3 games
for the 1.45. Detroit was at +1.45, which lost. Your guys, Wash., was at +1.45
and won on PL and Columbus +1.50, the big dog, won for us on the PL.

So, I guess I go by opening lines. They usually don't change. I don't make my
bets until an hour before or sometimes just before game time. Sharps might
have been on those games that changed.

I don't know if I want to use Fib lines on the biggest dog. I also have a Lab line
for the biggest dog. I'm putting all my eggs in one basket and that scares me.

Anyway, 2 of 3 on the 1.45. Next Fib bet is $13.

[rkelly110]

Here is some NBA 5.00 and over stats from Dec to date. These are all, not just the biggest dog.
Using 5.00 and over, betting on the point spread. The spread is usually +9 and over.

5.00 7 of 10 70%
5.25 4 of 9 44%
5.50 5 of 7 71%
5.75 3 of 5 60%
6.00 0 of 1 0%
6.50 1 of 3 33%
7.00 0 of 1 0%
7.50 0 of 4 0%
8.00 1 of 2 50%
8.50 2 of 3 67%
9.00 2 of 3 67%
10.00 1 of 4 25%
11.00 2 of 2 100%
13.00 1 of 1 100%

29 of 55 53% total for all.

Yes, a small sample size. The 5.00 and 5.50 are odds that occur more often and are hitting
at or above 70%. With odds at 1.91 w/o buying points, looks good.