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Guida -150: 2.5u to win 1.67u
Stann +160: 3u to win 4.8uComment -
Scott Jorgensen +195: 2u to win 3.9u
I don't think he'll win but I expect it to be competitive. Cruz doesn't deserve to be a -215 favorite, especially with the questions about his hand.
Not Cruz inside the distance -322: 5u to win 1.55u
A hedge of sorts, in case Cruz wins by decision, but of course not only a hedge since I can win both this and the bet above if Jorgensen wins. It seems like a lot of juice but I'm actually very pleased with this line. I think Cruz' chances of winning inside the distance are considerably worse than this. He's not exactly known for his knockout power and Jorgensen has a great chin and good cardio.
Jorgensen wins in round 3 +2000: 0.25u to win 5u
just a little hunch
Last edited by lasker; 12-16-10, 05:01 PM.Comment -
meant to add Henderson sooner. I got him at -160 but didn't post it here, so I'll just put one unit on this worse line which I think still has some value, even now:
Henderson -178: 1u to win .56uComment -
Cerrone wins in round 3 +900: 0.5u to win 4.5u
Cerrone wins by submission +260: 1.5u to win 3.9u
Not Cerrone by TKO/KO -305: 3.05u to win 1uLast edited by lasker; 12-16-10, 03:50 PM.Comment -
Shalorus wins by 3 round decision +278: 1.8u to win 5u
not Shalorus inside the distance -170: 4u to win 2.35u
playing a lot of props tonight and I realize it's quite risky. We'll see how it goes.Comment -
Pettis/Henderson goes 5 round distance +177: 1u to win 1.7uComment -
I agree, no way Cruz wins inside the distance
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Is cerrone a pretty easy pick to win? Every preview i read has him dominating horodecki. -425 is a lot of juice. I would like the opinion of people who unlike me actually know about mma.Comment -
I think Cerrone should definitely win this fight. But as always, remember there are no locks in MMA! At -425 it's too much to lay on him. He's currently available at -375 on 5dimes, which is right about where I would cap it.
Cerrone looked outstanding in his last fight over Varner, where I picked him as well, and I think he's only getting better. He is super pumped about being part of the UFC and exudes tremendous confidence in his latest interviews. He's better everywhere than Horodecki. However -425 is a lot of juice. That's why I took the props instead. I think if he wins it's very likely he'll win by submission (+350 now... wish I would have waited!) or decision (+208 at the moment), since he doesn't have KO power and Horodecki has a decent chin, so I think going with one or both of those props on 5dimes is a better option for you if possible. The +350 submission prop is particularly attractive.Comment -
Like Smooth by decision.
Guess who's stackin' gold and silver? THIS GUYComment -
+11.75u on the posted picks for this event, great night for me and even better thanks to some nice parlays that hit. I'll post them below.
How amazing was that Pettis kick in round 5? That whole fight was one of the most thrilling I've seen in my life, and certainly my pick for fight of the year. Unfortunately Henderson's loss cost me a couple of other parlays that would have hit, but I'm not complaining. Brilliant performance from both fighters, and Pettis is a monster.Comment -
Tell me about it, my biggest bet of the night was on Henderson, and I didn't feel one bit of remorse about losing that bet. Not after that performance.
I'm actually pumped to see how Pettis matches up against Maynard/Frankie (probably Maynard but we shall see). I will not be sleeping on him this time, plus I think his unorthodox striking and solid jiu jitsu is exactly the trump card needed to best Maynard. Henderson would have just put in a gutty performance in a decision loss.
Even though I had Cruz by decision, he also shocked me at how easy his fight was.
Well enough bullshitting, I came in to say excellent job.Comment -
thanks, yeah definitely a night of fights to remember. I think Pettis matches up very well against Maynard. His guard is so active and his takedown defense is really excellent, much better than would be expected from someone without much of a wrestling background. I actually think Edgar would present a tougher challenge for Pettis because Edgar is so good at transitioning between striking and the ground game, and he would try to employ a GSP-style "up and down" gameplan en route to a decision. I hope Edgar retains his belt because I find Edgar-Pettis the far more compelling matchup.
Had Henderson won the decision I would have made over $300 from some more parlays. One is below. But what can you do... the right man won for a change! I was half-hoping a judging "robbery" in this close fight would work in my way for once, but I'm glad Pettis won and he fully deserved it.Attached FilesLast edited by lasker; 12-17-10, 02:30 AM.Comment -
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A similar near miss... damn you Jamie Varner, now I hate you even more than before!
Attached FilesLast edited by lasker; 12-17-10, 02:29 AM.Comment -
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still had some nice parlays hit tonight, the best of which was the one below. Overall not the best year for me, as I had a couple of really bad events that I'd like to blot out from my memory, but of course it's nice to close out the year with an event like this with great fights and great results. On to 2011!Attached FilesLast edited by lasker; 12-17-10, 02:19 AM.Comment -
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nice job Lasker..2011 is gonna be a big year for Sbr's mma forum.
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thanks ill, you too. it seems you've been in the green event after event for quite some time.
yep, the MMA subforum has to the best on SBR, perhaps along with the handicapper's think tank. looking forward to 2011 with great anticipation.Comment -
Great night lasker. It was a nice way to finish off the year.Comment -
I'll get this one in early.
Franklin -150: 1.5u to win 1u. I may add more if the line moves in Griffin's favor.Comment -
Gomi/Guida goes 3 round distance +160: 5u to win 8uComment -
Diaz/Kim goes 3 round distance -210: 2.1u to win 1uComment -
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[quote=lasker;8055955]agreed, that's why I made it 5u! Glad I got the opener on this one, in less than an hour after I bet it had moved to +145 and I think it will be close to evens by fight time. quote]
Amazing line...it's -162.5 on paddypower
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I noticed that too. Who knows... Probably a mistake, but then again bizarre line movements do happen from time to time.
Finally a good line for the poor old american! Any other day I'm the one jealous of your paddypower (or other euro book) "miracle bets"
Last edited by lasker; 12-24-10, 05:11 AM.Comment -
Just got Gomi/Guida goes the distance at +145 at 5dimes. Still there as of this morning. Good look Lasker. I must have looked last night right before they put the lines up.Comment -
haha Obama must of read your open letter!Comment -
What's Dong by dec and Guida by dec at on 5dimes??Comment -
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