Finally a big hit for K-State. 4-3 going into the 9th. Have to hope they tie it or totally yack up a big inning.
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but now we got a game!...KS finally breaks thru for runs (1 in 6th, and 2 in 8th)...
OS leading by one run, 4-3, batting in the top of the 9th...
the KS-series bet and the game's over bet (both seemingly out of reach all game) are now seemingly quite attainableComment -
no matter what happens, EP, to get KS for the price we got 'em was SHAWP!...and tailing you on it got me to watch this super brand of baseball...
come on Kansas State!
...a scoreless 9th, just edged out on both counts...
KS out-hit OS 11-6, just couldn't get a timely hit in the early innings...the 4-0 deficit after 5 innings ultimately proved just one-run to big to erase...
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glad i stumbled on this thread, CWS BAseball is every bit as entertaining as MM BasketballComment -
Well plenty of chances to get more runs, just not enough clutch hits. Back tomorrow. SC-UNC at 1pm ET.Comment -
June 11th
Chapel Hill Super Regional: N.Carolina-S.Carolina Over 9.5 [-125] *To Win 2 Units
Juicy, but I absolutely love this one. I do not see any indication that we won't see Benton Moss start for UNC and Jack Wynkoop for SC. Moss has excellent strikeout stuff, but when his out pitches are not working - he struggles and does not work deep into games. That was an issue in the Regionals against Towson as he gave up three runs and only went 4.1 IP. Same for the ACC tournament where he gave up five runs against Clemson and lasted 5.1 IP. His final regular season start vs. Virginia, 5.2 IP and four runs surrendered. Given the hot bats of the Gamecocks in this series, I expect them to get some runs today. Wynkoop has been a solid option as a Freshman, but his BAA is .283. He's not Jordan Montgomery who had the experience and was crafty and dominant against UNC. UNC has rarely been held in-check two games in a row and I don't think they will be held down today. The UNC bullpen got an extra day of rest, but they have been shaky - so the sooner we see bullpens today, the better off this total could be for heading over the number.
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Gun to your head Ninja, who would you pick to win this showdown between the two Carolina's? BOL on the over play, it sounds sharp.Comment -
Down to -125 on the over. Booked! I think the same way I thought last week against FAU - Heels will be tested, but find a way although SC can nver be counted out. That's why I liked the total better personally. Side is tough to call.Comment -
That's the side I'm leaning towards too, but I just haven't been able to get myself to pull the trigger. Right now I'm hoping that the weather cooperates long enough today so that they can get the game in as the last I heard there is a 30% chance of t-storms. I will take a shot at the over and still may roll with the Tarheels. This is a great thread, I wish I had found it sooner. Thanks for the reply and BOL today.Comment -
This game is a little sleepy. Do not like. Need one of them to have a big inning to get this in order.Comment -
Now we're cookin'. 4-4.Comment -
Why do I have a feeling that this is going to come down to the last AB to get run #10? *GulpComment -
This one is really gonna get under my skin.Comment -
And here it is ... last AB as expected. Need one run. Doubt it's coming. Eternally pissed off at this one.Comment -
So ends the Super Regionals. UNC wins 5-4. My big bet loses. So pissed off right now, can't even type. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,.Comment -
2013 Record: 50-40 [+11.75]
Well today and last night, a double downer. But the World Series is here. Time to rest up. First games on Saturday, so I am going to not think about it for a few days and then dive back into the Futures on Friday.Comment -
doesn't show up in the boxscore but moose droppings are reported to have heavily affected the last three innings of the North/South Carolina game...fack
so bummed out by this, EP, I had to change my avatar...
that's the last time I let that guy's shit cost me moneyComment -
Heh. Real disappointed with that total, but it happens. That's what I get for going a little bigger on a pick.Comment -
Just a little tidbit as I start looking over things for the CWS. This will be the 3rd year at TD Ameritrade for the CWS. In both of the 1st two years, 9/13 games played each year saw games with under ten runs. Both years, only one game after the 1st round had double digit runs scored.
So the thinking is, if there are going to be big totals - likely to be the games on Saturday & Sunday if history holds true. May not help a ton as I don't expect to see too many totals over the 9.5 mark that are set for a couple of the 1st batch - but if you see a bigger number, definitely think twice and look at who is pitching, etc.
Remember, the winds usually blow in from CF to knock balls down, so also take a look at teams that manufacture runs the best and don't rely all on the big fly to score runs. Should have Futures and any Saturday plays up this evening. Excited to get back into it!Comment -
Also, these 1st two days .. do expect an upset or two. Chalk normally does not prevail across the board in all four games, hasn't swept the board in those first four in the past five years that I looked at and probably further. That means look at those ML dogs and find the match-ups that could yield an upset. That's where I am starting right now.
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College World Series Futures
Louisville to Win Bracket One +320
The Cards have the offense and pitching to win this whole thing. The 1-2 punch of Thompson & Green on the mound will make it difficult to beat Louisville twice in a row. Kime gives them a third option with good stuff and if they have to come out of the loser's bracket, he will be a key component if Louisville survives. The bullpen can lock it down for 2-3 innings with Ege & Burdi leading the charge. The offense is fantastic for manufacturing runs with one of the top base stealing clubs in D1. Young, Gardener and Johnson are a lethal combo in the lineup. Beating Vanderbilt in two games on the road against two of the top pitchers in D1 bodes well heading into this bracket.
LSU Wins CWS +190
For me, this is smart money spent. LSU has the best combo of pitching and offense in Omaha and should be pushing out of the Winner's Bracket with UCLA up first. The reason I think this is smartly spent is that there aren't too many scenarios where LSU as the labelled favorite to take the title - WON'T carry a favorites tag in most if not every game they play in Omaha. That means there should be a hedge wherever needed and your chance to "Green Out" and make a profit.
North Carolina Eliminated From Bracket Two First +460 *0.5 unit
UCLA Eliminated From Bracket Two First +135 *0.5 unit
The hope that one goes out first and these split with some profit taken is what I am looking at here. UNC I think offers nice odds in this spot for a team whose starting pitching has become a large question mark heading into the CWS. Emmanuel, Johnson and Moss all had solid seasons, but appear a tad gassed from over-use in the postseason. Throw in that Rodon should be getting the ball first against the Heels and it is not unlikely that N.Carolina will be playing from the loser's bracket as the Heels showed their vulnerability against S.Carolina when facing top notch lefties. UCLA certainly has the pitching to match any team in this bracket, but no doubt is lacking offensively. Having to open against Nola & LSU won't do them any favors. As the odds hold, the Bruins are the team most expect to depart Omaha early
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June 15th
Oregon State Team Total Over 3.5 [-110]
Graveman starts for Mississippi State. He's been their ace, but he's definitely not a total lockdown type of pitcher. His ERA sits at 3.14 and his BAA is .268. In the postseason, Graveman has surrendered seven earned runs in 15 IP in three games. There have been a handful of unearned runs given up in those games as well, totaling 12 runs in all that have been scored against the Bulldogs in games started in the postseason by Graveman. They have given up four or more in three of their last four postseason games. OSU has been a solid, grind it out offense all season. The Beavers aren't reliant on the long ball, so that should serve them well in Omaha where it plays bigger now and gap hitting and base running equals better chances to put up numbers. Seven regulars hit .299 or better for OSU and the RBIs are spread are spread out where Davis & Conforto are the keys, but multiple other guys can hurt opposing pitchers. Key to hitting this is getting to Graveman. Miss. State has one of the best, if not the best bullpen in Omaha for this even so the later innings will be more difficult for scoring if they have a lead.
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Off & running with a winner on the team total. Yee haw. Looking at the IU-Louisville game tonight. DeNato v. Green is the pitching match-up. Both coaches going with their #2 starters. Always interesting to see strategies like this to me. Not shocked about Louisville going with Green as he opened the Vandy Super Regional too, but IU not using Slegers is a little surprising - although it will give them a good shot in their 2nd game regardless of the winner's or loser's bracket.Comment -
What a finish. OSU hammers one to deep right with two on in the bottom of the 9th, but TD Ameritrade once again kills HRs.Comment -
nice ez winner thanks ep..........................DWCHComment -
Louisville-Indiana Under 9.5 [-130]
These two teams met three times in the regular season with all three games finishing under this total. Today's starters, DeNato & Green met in the first game of the season where IU won 2-0. Both pitchers only went four innings, but were able to contain the other team. Louisville was able to limit a potent IU offense to eleven runs in those three games with six coming in one game. IU used versatile Coursen-Carr to start two of the games with DeNato starting the other. Louisville scored just six runs, so the Hoosiers must feel that lefties are a key to keeping the Cards' bats under control. The Cards limited a versatile offense in Vanderbilt to just four runs last weekend in two games. Indiana bashed the ball against FSU and has solid gap power that can play well in TD Ameritrade, but I think Louisville having seen this lineup three times ... they will have a game plan again & vice versa for IU,
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Green has no control again today. He was :effectively: wild against Vanderbilt, throwing a lot of pitches but he didn't walk guys like he is tonight. Not looking good right now. Need to limit the damage here.Comment -
Big gun down at the plate and solid work from Ege. Only one run in.Comment -
June 16th
N.C. State +175
Carlos Rodon is all I need to take a shot here. Rodon, the lefty stud for the Pack has already faced UNC twice this season and has been absolutely amazing. 16.2 IP, 24 Ks and just three runs allowed - only two earned. The masterpiece being his 10 inning show at the ACC tournament where he allowed just one hit in the 18 inning game that the Heels eventually won 2-1. UNC showed in the Super Regionals that lefties can still tame this dominant lineup. Emanuel goes for the Heels. He had one stellar start against the Wolfpack in a 7-1 Heels win earlier this season. However, he along with the rest of the Heels' starters have really struggled in the postseason. Emanuel has a 12.00 ERA in 11.2 IP in the NCAAs. NC State may not have a stellar offense, but Rodon is going to have them in position and that makes this a tasty try.
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DeNato was awesome for Indiana and Louisville shot themselves in the foot early with all those walks. Pretty even game outside of that. Under never really got threatened after the first two innings, so a nice easy win on that. Will definitely be looking at the Oregon State ML on Monday to negate the Louisville future. Cards will have a chance with Thompson, but lefties have proven to be their kryptonite and OSU's Young is going to be tough to get runs off of on Monday.Comment -
2013 Record: 52-40 [+13.75]
CWS: 2-0 [+2.00]Comment -
Wow. Big ups to 5Dimes. They even have 1st Inning YES/NO score props and Total R+H+E listed for both games today. That is now on top of the 1st Five Innings bets they added this year and the normal MLs, spreads and totals.
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Wolfpack unloading on Emanuel. 4-0 lead in the 3rd. Very nice start, but a long way to go.Comment -
Rodon is a boss.Comment -
5Dimes is No. 1 for a reason. It amazes me how far ahead they are of every other book.
Nice work in here, EP.Comment -
Thanks. I was just amazed to see those other options offered. Will give Betonline some props too, they are offering MLs, the basic spread +1.5/-1.5 and game totals for Omaha. Improvement over just the MLs they had been offering for Regionals and Supers.
I think books are starting to realize that this is a big betting opportunity. SBR as usual ... misses the boat.
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