LTA's MLB Plays

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

No shadows...trop is a dome.

I have this total at 8 even, so I think the 7.5 with a juiced over is pretty accurate. No play on the total for me, but I would lean over just slightly.

The weekends libations taking there toll.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by alvinho

Hey Redscot and LTA, I have a question for you. How do I start analyzing sabermetrics? Where do I begin? I study computer science, so math is not a problem.

Read the book moneyball and follow redscots advice. Get familiar with the glossary on fangraps and understand how the stats are calculated and what they project. Good luck!

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 11:12 AM

Had some time on my hands this morning,playing with some stats. I figured a simple offensive average for the 4 playoffs teams today weighting equally there Home or away numbers, vs. RHP or LHP numbers and last 30 day numbers:

Yanks Detroit Texas Tampa
Woba = .327 .356 .354 .317
wrc+ = 101 123 117 101
ops = .747 .825 .814 .713

Verlander and CC both going on 3 days rest. CC has done it before successfully. Verlander has never done it, but he only threw 25 pr so pitches Friday which isn't even a BullPen session.

.
edit: tried lining up the stats above, but for some reason computer won't take it

**No coincidences** · 10-03-11, 11:13 AM

I would think as long as this total doesn't move to 8, under would be the play. Scary proposition given the pitchers involved, but I would assume the over is going to be a pretty popular play here.

**No coincidences** · 10-03-11, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Verlander and CC both going on 3 days rest. CC has done it before successfully. Verlander has never done it, but he only threw 25 pr so pitches Friday which isn't even a BullPen session.

Hard to say what's going to happen given the short rest. I also don't know what the pregame routine is with these cats -- how much work did they put in Friday before first pitch and how will that affect them tonight?

They should've never started that game Friday. Just stupid.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Hard to say what's going to happen given the short rest. I also don't know what the pregame routine is with these cats -- how much work did they put in Friday before first pitch and how will that affect them tonight?

They should've never started that game Friday. Just stupid.

Yeah man, that was just ridiculous the handling of Fridays game.

**Trivial** · 10-03-11, 11:28 AM

So today is a no play?

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Had some time on my hands this morning,playing with some stats. I figured a simple offensive average for the 4 playoffs teams today weighting equally there Home or away numbers, vs. RHP or LHP numbers and last 30 day numbers:

Yanks Detroit Texas Tampa
Woba = .327 .356 .354 .317
wrc+ = 101 123 117 101
ops = .747 .825 .814 .713

Verlander and CC both going on 3 days rest. CC has done it before successfully. Verlander has never done it, but he only threw 25 pr so pitches Friday which isn't even a BullPen session.

.
edit: tried lining up the stats above, but for some reason computer won't take it

Did you see the career stats of CC and Verlander with tonight's ump, Gerry Davis. Wow...completely one sided in favor of CC....take that for whatever you want, but I can't get a good feel on this game.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Interesting game. Price has been dominant at the Trop throughout his career, but has struggled against Texas. Lewis actually pitched really well last year in the playoffs and has a good (small sample) track record at the Trop. Lewis gets a reprieve in Tampa because he gets burnt by the long ball at Home as he is a fly ball pitcher.

Looks like Scott will be behind the plate today which is pretty neutral, although a slight over ump, in games with total's of 7 1/2 or less he has an under lean. Both pitchers also have a good k/bb ratio in their history with Scott umping. Not sure about the shadow situation in tampa, could also play a roll early helping the pitchers get into a groove. Curious as to where you have this total LTA.

I get the history thing with Lewis, but a comparison of pitchers really isn't that close. To me, Lewis is not in Price's class. I like Price's playoff history as well...this guy is an intense, big game pitcher. With that said, he got lit up by the Yanks with the season on the line. Still, I think it's TB or nothing. Especially, when you can get him at -128. I'm hoping to get -125...if I see it, I will probably pull the trigger.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Did you see the career stats of CC and Verlander with tonight's ump, Gerry Davis. Wow...completely one sided in favor of CC....take that for whatever you want, but I can't get a good feel on this game.

Yes I did. It gives a stronger indication of CC's comfort with him imo than Verlanders discomfort. Larger sample size for CC, and one of the 2 Verlander starts was from 2006.

Both games are tough today imo. One thing that stood out to me when I investigated the offenses a bit this morning is contrary to popular belief Detroit at home against a LH is as good as the Yanks on the road vs. a RH if not better using the advanced stats. Last 30 days Detroit had a clear cut advantage offensively.

Texas as expected has the superior offensive numbers, one thing that stood out though is Price has a .6 advantage in Siera on Lewis, not as much as I would have expected. Lewis also has been far more effective on the road where his bugaboo the HR a ball is mitigated. Tropicana field certainly contains the HR well.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I get the history thing with Lewis, but a comparison of pitchers really isn't that close. To me, Lewis is not in Price's class. I like Price's playoff history as well...this guy is an intense, big game pitcher. With that said, he got lit up by the Yanks with the season on the line. Still, I think it's TB or nothing. Especially, when you can get him at -128. I'm hoping to get -125...if I see it, I will probably pull the trigger.

I agree that Price is a notch above Lewis. Another thing about Lewis is his disparity in stats against LH batters. How many lefties can he expect to see today.....he doesn't fair well.....
edit:
1. Desmond Jennings (R) LF
2. B.J. Upton (R) CF
3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B
4. Matt Joyce (L) RF
5. Johnny Damon (L) DH
6. Ben Zobrist (S) 2B
7. Casey Kotchman (L) 1B
8. John Jaso (L) C
9. Reid Brignac (L) SS

4-9 will be batting LH against him

**815Sox** · 10-03-11, 12:34 PM

I like the under in the Yank/Det game. I put a small one on it last night when the value was better. Its worth a shot, and I think that both of these guys show up today. I think they are both going to be slightly more familiar with the lineups as well.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I would think as long as this total doesn't move to 8, under would be the play. Scary proposition given the pitchers involved, but I would assume the over is going to be a pretty popular play here.

I have a small under lean, but the wind is blowing out to right at about 8 -10 mph (helpful to NY lefty power) and the ump historically squeezes Verlander. Plus, I learned my lesson about backing pitchers with short rest on the under yesterday...no desire to relive that torture. There was, however, a big line move towards the under recently...

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

I agree that Price is a notch above Lewis. Another thing about Lewis is his disparity in stats against LH batters. How many lefties can he expect to see today.....he doesn't fair well.....
edit:
1. Desmond Jennings (R) LF
2. B.J. Upton (R) CF
3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B
4. Matt Joyce (L) RF
5. Johnny Damon (L) DH
6. Ben Zobrist (S) 2B
7. Casey Kotchman (L) 1B
8. John Jaso (L) C
9. Reid Brignac (L) SS

4-9 will be batting LH against him

Yeah...you know Maddon gets the daily sabermetric report on each pitcher. I think he uses advanced stats more than any other manager...

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Yeah...you know Maddon gets the daily sabermetric report on each pitcher. I think he uses advanced stats more than any other manager...

He is a very interesting dude, and does a great job.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Yes I did. It gives a stronger indication of CC's comfort with him imo than Verlanders discomfort. Larger sample size for CC, and one of the 2 Verlander starts was from 2006.

Both games are tough today imo. One thing that stood out to me when I investigated the offenses a bit this morning is contrary to popular belief Detroit at home against a LH is as good as the Yanks on the road vs. a RH if not better using the advanced stats. Last 30 days Detroit had a clear cut advantage offensively.

Texas as expected has the superior offensive numbers, one thing that stood out though is Price has a .6 advantage in Siera on Lewis, not as much as I would have expected. Lewis also has been far more effective on the road where his bugaboo the HR a ball is mitigated. Tropicana field certainly contains the HR well.

Yeah, you are right about Lewis' home run risk getting mitigated by the Trop. No doubt.

I would say .6 difference in SIERA is pretty significant, when you consider Lewis is above league average and Price is well below it. Of all qualified starters in the majors, Price's 3.12 ranks 11th overall.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

He is a very interesting dude, and does a great job.

For my money, he's one of the top 5 guys in the game. He takes an intellectual approach, with the ability to relate with his players like any other manager. He holds the players accountable and garners their respect, but he also defends them in the press, has their back and is very loyal. Can't ask for more...

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 01:08 PM

The line movement seems to say the Rangers win this game.

Plus, you have Texas TT juiced at the over 3.5, with TB getting juiced on the under at 4.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I have a small under lean, but the wind is blowing out to right at about 8 -10 mph (helpful to NY lefty power) and the ump historically squeezes Verlander. Plus, I learned my lesson about backing pitchers with short rest on the under yesterday...no desire to relive that torture. There was, however, a big line move towards the under recently...

I am not as concerned about Verlander as Greinke/Carpenter. Greinke had thrown 182 pitch's in the week before his start and Carpenter 199 (in 8 days I believe). Verlander had good rest before his abbreviated start and only threw 25 pitches or so. I think both pitchers tonight are their normal selves.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

The line movement seems to say the Rangers win this game.

Plus, you have Texas TT juiced at the over 3.5, with TB getting juiced on the under at 4.

My local just moved the total to 8......I'm gettin' twitchy.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

My local just moved the total to 8......I'm gettin' twitchy.

Yeah...but the over is a huge play right now with over 88% of all bets on the over whether at Sports Insights, Sports Spy or Sportsbook.com.

I'm not sure you can read directly into that correlation as being a huge Texas advantage.

The Rangers and over are strong public plays, so it makes sense that the line moves in that direction. However, an almost 15 cent move in favor the Rangers at Pinny is not all from "public" money. I have this game right at the opening number of Rays -136, so I really like the Rays at -125 or better. However, this huge move is making me think twice. Statistically, Price is a play on today, but the line movement says otherwise.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Yeah...but the over is a huge play right now with over 88% of all bets on the over whether at Sports Insights, Sports Spy or Sportsbook.com.

I'm not sure you can read directly into that correlation as being a huge Texas advantage.

The Rangers and over are strong public plays, so it makes sense that the line moves in that direction. However, an almost 15 cent move in favor the Rangers at Pinny is not all from "public" money. I have this game right at the opening number of Rays -136, so I really like the Rays at -125 or better. However, this huge move is making me think twice. Statistically, Price is a play on today, but the line movement says otherwise.

Nice info, didn't know it was such a huge public play. I was referring to the total though with my twitchy finger. I told myself this morning if it got to 8 I would take the under........you having it at 8 has given me some pause though.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

I am not as concerned about Verlander as Greinke/Carpenter. Greinke had thrown 182 pitch's in the week before his start and Carpenter 199 (in 8 days I believe). Verlander had good rest before his abbreviated start and only threw 25 pitches or so. I think both pitchers tonight are their normal selves.

Yeah...but is 100 pitches per start a lot? I would say no, but yesterday's results would say yes. I could see if they had thrown 240 pitches (120 per start) in their previous two starts. However, if you stay around 100 pitches, that workload should not negatively carry over to the next start (including starts on three days rest). Apparently, that is not the case however. I guess I underestimated the fatigue factor.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Nice info, didn't know it was such a huge public play. I was referring to the total though with my twitchy finger. I told myself this morning if it got to 8 I would take the under........you having it at 8 has given me some pause though.

Go with your gut..don't let me hold you back. If you factor in Lewis' road xFIP as opposed to home splits, I think you can make a solid case of the under.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Yeah...but is 100 pitches per start a lot? I would say no, but yesterday's results would say yes. I could see if they had thrown 240 pitches (120 per start) in their previous two starts. However, if you stay around 100 pitches, that workload should not negatively carry over to the next start (including starts on three days rest). Apparently, that is not the case however. I guess I underestimated the fatigue factor.

Agreed, I think it may be more a cumalitive thing, he went 4,4,4,3 all in high leverage situations. End of the day, it is all speculative, he was off, how much was fatigue only he knows.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Go with your gut..don't let me hold you back. If you factor in Lewis' road xFIP as opposed to home splits, I think you can make a solid case of the under.

Nah bro, you don't hold me back, you round out my analysis. Many times my gut has taken me in the wrong direction, and has been reigned in by your analysis.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Agreed, I think it may be more a cumalitive thing, he went 4,4,4,3 all in high leverage situations. End of the day, it is all speculative, he was off, how much was fatigue only he knows.

Good point...I noted it but discounted it at the time. Those are things we just need to file away for use in future situations.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Good point...I noted it but discounted it at the time. Those are things we just need to file away for use in future situations.

Amen. The truth is I thought Carpenter would be able to bulldog himself through it. Like you say, will file that one away in the data bank. Not the same data bank with the Tropicana Field shadow's

.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Nah bro, you don't hold me back, you round out my analysis. Many times my gut has taken me in the wrong direction, and has been reigned in by your analysis.

Starting to like the under at 8.

Not sure what to do on the side. I don't think I can back Price with this crazy movement against him, even at a great price.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Starting to like the under at 8.

Not sure what to do on the side. I don't think I can back Price with this crazy movement against him, even at a great price.

I actually grabbed Texas early today at +120. Still, I am more of an action junkie than you, not that I feel that strongly about it. The subsequent line movement has me feeling better about it though. Since my cards are on the table I also played Det/Yank under 7 even. Am probably going to take the under in Tampa, waiting to see how far it goes. Am probably gonna go -1 RL on Detroit

. I think Verlander dominates tonight
4-1 type game (the rest factor is a wild card here though)

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 02:02 PM

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/2/11

0 - 2 = -5.05x

Ouch...the Brewers/AZ under was a bad play all around. I got beat by the closer and the play lost. The Cardinals/Philies under was a good play from a line movement perspective. I got the under at plus odds and it closed at -123. Therefore, I saved myself quite a bit of money had I waited and took the under for 4x at close. However, a losing play is still a losing play.

MLB 2011 Playoffs

1 - 4 = -5.65x

A tough start to the playoffs....but plenty of time for a comeback.

**Trivial** · 10-03-11, 02:04 PM

Ya... This is tough but I am on Texas now while there is plus money. The way this is going it will be even at game time.

**Trivial** · 10-03-11, 02:09 PM

I think I need to steer away from unders even though the under 8 is logical tonight. Going with Texas as my only play in all sports tonight.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

I think I need to steer away from unders even though the under 8 is logical tonight. Going with Texas as my only play in all sports tonight.

GL man, on it with ya

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 02:17 PM

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/3/11

Play #1

Rangers/Rays under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Even though my model has this one at 8, I think we have nice value at 8 with juice at -105 so I jumped on it for our first play today. If you substitute Lewis' road splits instead of his overall stats, I would have this closer to the 7.4 range. With a total at 8 at very little juice, I like this under when you factor in the Trop effect and its ability to limit HR's (which as Redscot pointed out above has been a problem for Lewis). Lewis has a solid history against TB in a small sample and TB is not the best team in the world against right handed hitters. You have 90% of all bets on the over and it would not surprise me to see a final score which ends in 7 to burn all those tickets. Dale Scott is the ump and he can go either way judging by his lifetime numbers. He has a strike rate in the 62.5% range, so I don't see him as being a detriment to this play. I see this one just squeaking under the total of 8, so I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.