LTA's MLB Plays

**Trivial** · 10-02-11, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I don't see Garcia as being an advantage over Sherzer. No play for me.

Thanks. I agree.

**Love The Action** · 10-02-11, 11:49 AM

What do you guys think about pitchers going on three days rest? Today, we have Carpenter and Greinke. The stats are mixed and show some guys can do it and some guys can't. Carp has never done it before, but I don't think it should bother him too much. Greinke I'm not so sure. Greinke has never really done it either, but he only threw 73 pitches in his last start so he should still be fresh.

**Louisvillekid1** · 10-02-11, 12:14 PM

theres nothing carpenter can do to beat the phills today... they are rolling...

**Trivial** · 10-02-11, 12:56 PM

Should have waited for the brewers bet. Big money going on over.

**Love The Action** · 10-02-11, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

Should have waited for the brewers bet. Big money going on over.

Yeah...but I only lost out on 5 cents from I can currently get.

Looking good in the Cards/Phills under as of right now though...I got it at plus odds and it's now at -120, a twenty cent shift.

**Krazymojo** · 10-02-11, 01:35 PM

ya i got it at -115

**Love The Action** · 10-02-11, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

theres nothing carpenter can do to beat the phills today... they are rolling...

I'm not investing in the Cardinals, I'm investing in the under. I think the Phillies probably win in 4 - 1 type game, but I really don't care who wins as long as it stays under 7.

**Love The Action** · 10-02-11, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Krazymojo

ya i got it at -115

Good luck

**Trivial** · 10-02-11, 01:58 PM

Indeed. Although for me it is 10 cents on the brewers shift. Oh well. Lets cash.

**Love The Action** · 10-02-11, 02:25 PM

The shadows will hopefully help in Milwaukee....

**Trivial** · 10-02-11, 03:19 PM

Lol. Lets hope.

**Love The Action** · 10-02-11, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

Lol. Lets hope.

Both pitchers are certainly capable of throwing a shutout. Both teams play great defense and have solid bullpens. On the other hand, both teams can rake and the line screams over...I guess we'll find out soon enough.

GL

**Redscot** · 10-02-11, 04:39 PM

Pissed at myself for not having the stones to back Scherzer today. Quietly, dude was top 10 in the AL advanced stats last month of the season.

**Love The Action** · 10-02-11, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Pissed at myself for not having the stones to back Scherzer today. Quietly, dude was top 10 in the AL advanced stats last month of the season.

Couldn't have said it better myself...you read my mind. It's hard to fade the Yanks at home though.

**Love The Action** · 10-02-11, 05:25 PM

Bad play by me on the az/mil under. Gotta learn from that one.

**Krazymojo** · 10-02-11, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Bad play by me on the az/mil under. Gotta learn from that one.

eeeekkkkkkk

**Krazymojo** · 10-02-11, 05:45 PM

Upton said no under lol

**Trivial** · 10-02-11, 05:47 PM

Ya. I should have gone with my gut and buy it back. Live and learn. Lets get the next one.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-02-11, 05:51 PM

Shake it off LTA, many more postseason games

**Love The Action** · 10-02-11, 06:18 PM

I'm out...going to dinner then watching some TV with the fam....done with sports for the day. Good luck tonight everyone

**815Sox** · 10-02-11, 07:54 PM

WTF Chris? WTF? Crappy start

**Trivial** · 10-02-11, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

WTF Chris? WTF? Crappy start

It could not have been worse.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-02-11, 08:00 PM

Now we are in trouble

**Trivial** · 10-02-11, 08:03 PM

Ya. 3 runs already.

**Trivial** · 10-02-11, 08:35 PM

Will Philly lighten up with such a lead?

**Krazymojo** · 10-02-11, 08:57 PM

shits cooked

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 05:35 AM

Well....that was a tough day. No more unders with guys on four days rest. Learned that the hard way. Off to work....lean rays tonight...might lock that one in soon. Bol

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 05:56 AM

No doubt, a rough day yesterday. Lots of playoffs to go.....Detroit opened -130. anyone remember what the Yanks opened in game one with the same pitching matchups? Didn't realize home field made such a huge impact on the line, unless there are other factors?

**alvinho** · 10-03-11, 06:26 AM

Game 1 was the opposite, NYY -130 x Tigers +120

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by alvinho

Game 1 was the opposite, NYY -130 x Tigers +120

Thanks man. That's a huge shift mostly predicated off home field. Wow, been betting a long time really didn't think it was that dramatic. LTA, all things being equal how many cents do you weight for home field in your model?

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Well....that was a tough day. No more unders with guys on four days rest. Learned that the hard way. Off to work....lean rays tonight...might lock that one in soon. Bol

Interesting game. Price has been dominant at the Trop throughout his career, but has struggled against Texas. Lewis actually pitched really well last year in the playoffs and has a good (small sample) track record at the Trop. Lewis gets a reprieve in Tampa because he gets burnt by the long ball at Home as he is a fly ball pitcher.

Looks like Scott will be behind the plate today which is pretty neutral, although a slight over ump, in games with total's of 7 1/2 or less he has an under lean. Both pitchers also have a good k/bb ratio in their history with Scott umping. Not sure about the shadow situation in tampa, could also play a roll early helping the pitchers get into a groove. Curious as to where you have this total LTA.

**alvinho** · 10-03-11, 07:10 AM

Hey Redscot and LTA, I have a question for you. How do I start analyzing sabermetrics? Where do I begin? I study computer science, so math is not a problem.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 07:25 AM

Originally posted by alvinho

Hey Redscot and LTA, I have a question for you. How do I start analyzing sabermetrics? Where do I begin? I study computer science, so math is not a problem.

Sabermetrics Library

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/

That is a great place to start. I would recommend starting with the pitching stats (Siera,X-fip are my two favorite) and then work your way to the Batting, than Defense. Get familiar with babip, LOB% etc.

That same site has all the players broken down in infinite ways too. ex:

Felipe Paulino - Stats - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3777&position=P

Felipe Paulino career pitching statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball

If you look under batted ball in this section you will see Paulino's Siera and x-fip is a good deal lower than his era, why is that?

Anyway, that's a good place to start, I am sure LTA can enlighten you on some more, if you have any questions feel free to ask....I am no expert but whatever I can help you with I'd be happy to.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Thanks man. That's a huge shift mostly predicated off home field. Wow, been betting a long time really didn't think it was that dramatic. LTA, all things being equal how many cents do you weight for home field in your model?

Home team opens -120, and then gets adjusted from there....

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Interesting game. Price has been dominant at the Trop throughout his career, but has struggled against Texas. Lewis actually pitched really well last year in the playoffs and has a good (small sample) track record at the Trop. Lewis gets a reprieve in Tampa because he gets burnt by the long ball at Home as he is a fly ball pitcher.

Looks like Scott will be behind the plate today which is pretty neutral, although a slight over ump, in games with total's of 7 1/2 or less he has an under lean. Both pitchers also have a good k/bb ratio in their history with Scott umping. Not sure about the shadow situation in tampa, could also play a roll early helping the pitchers get into a groove. Curious as to where you have this total LTA.

No shadows...trop is a dome.

I have this total at 8 even, so I think the 7.5 with a juiced over is pretty accurate. No play on the total for me, but I would lean over just slightly.