LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Once again you are making each bettor out to betting EXACT the same games. Using your totally unrealistic model, YES beyond a doubt simple math rules. HOWEVER in real gambling no one is betting the exact same games. Using my example above :

Since I don't have the 500+ bets in front of me from your made up situation it's kind of hard.

Maybe the capper that bets into bad numbers plays strictly dogs and bet them at +140 when he felt that was enough value and the line closed at +150 because a "public" starting pitcher was on the mound. He wins but doesn't beat the closer........

Meanwhile favorite bettor got the line at -150 and closed at -160. He beat the closing line, but lost. I can't argue this anymore and don't want to.

It's hard to argue with a guy who's posted 700 games and has just over +20 units. I totally get it. You've mastered beating the closing line, sometimes, and have averaged 3 units per 100 plays, using units 1-10 as plays.

I on the other hand have played just over 100 plays, and I'm basically at the same units.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/1119113-wnba-projections-p6.html

Both at sports we claim to be good at. Except I have roughly 600 more plays to gain 3 units.

Joke. Continued success at beating the closer, but it sounds like you have it all figured out and i don't have a clue. Hard to argue. Good luck

Not sure why you are so defensive and feel the need to attack me. This isnt you versus me. I always acknowledge that I have more to learn, not sure you can say the same when you are trying to argue against a fact and are too stubborn to just admit that beating closers is a very important part of sports investing. You can attack me all you want, but you still sound silly trying to argue against accepted fact.

Use your own example of the two dog bettors, one who buys at +140 and the other who buys at +150...who makes more money. Well, it's clearly the guy who beat the closer and got +150. He made more than $10 on $100 bet. Now, extrapolate that over 1000 bets. The capper that gets a consistent 10 cent advantage on his bets over those 1000 plays makes much more money than the guy who bet a worse line.

Now, you can attack me or tout your thread in here as king capper all you want, but my point is that you make yourself sound silly when you say beating the closer doesn't matter because it's a a fact of investing that it is vitally important.

I never said I'm the best at beating the closer or that I am a better investor than you. I'm not here to get into some type of contest with you. However, you made an absurd comment that beating the closer does not matter and I merely illustrated how your comment is wrong.

Lets try this....you are the best capper in the world sir, I hereby admit that you are much better than me and everyone should go to your thread and tail you, however, despite all your greatness, you sound like an ignorant noob when you say that beating the closer does not matter because you are going against an accepted mathematical fact.

Remember, this isnt me versus you, it's you versus a fact of sports investing and your inability to admit that you are wrong. Don't be stubborn. It is unbecoming of such a great capper like yourself.

[miguelj]

We all know where this is going.

[ebemiss]

Just trying to help. that's all. good luck everyone. Obviously beating the closer is the most important fact in gambling. Maybe we should all keep track of that instead of wins and losses

[DigBick86]

Were did you get the umps for todays games?I saw that you knew the ump for the Tigers game and i have serached the whole net without finding so would be very gratefull if you could help me

[ebemiss]

I'd be careful taking "investing" advice from a guy who's risked 700 plays to make +20 units. Maybe that person should stop being stubborn and worrying about the closing line and they'd find a higher rate of success.

Plus I never used an example of 2 dog bettors. I used an example of a person who beat the closing line as a favorite bettor and lost his bet. The guy who bet the dog missed out on 10 cents but won the bet. Don't twist my example around to fit your bogus theory.

[Love The Action]

Just trying to help. that's all. good luck everyone. Obviously beating the closer is the most important fact in gambling. Maybe we should all keep track of that instead of wins and losses

No...but beating the closer and getting the best price is one of the main things that you can control to increase your chances of long term profitability. You can cap a game perfectly, but still lose in the 9th inning on an error. You can't control the player that made the error. However, if you know how to read the market, you can control the price that you bought in at and thereby either minimize your loss or maximize your gain over the long term. All I'm saying is that price is very important and can make difference between profit and loss over the long term. For whatever reason, you don't want to acknowledge that for the fact it is.

In all seriousness, though, I wish you nothing but success. I just don't know why you can't acknowledge the importance of getting the best price. Good luck on your future plays.

[ebemiss]

Good luck on your plays. I've read in this thread how you wouldn't play a favorite because it jumped a couple cents and bragged about beating a line on a game that lost.

This doesn't make sense to me. No matter how you spin it. Cap a game, bet the game if you think it's a winner and the line is fair. By fair I mean a broad guideline of what is acceptable to you.

Maybe you should widen your guidelines for plays, you may actually add a few more winners into the mix instead of sitting on them because a line moved 5 cents.

For the hundredth time good luck. Not worth anymore time as we won't agree on this or basically anything else

[Love The Action]

Good luck on your plays. I've read in this thread how you wouldn't play a favorite because it jumped a couple cents and bragged about beating a line on a game that lost.

This doesn't make sense to me. No matter how you spin it. Cap a game, bet the game if you think it's a winner and the line is fair. By fair I mean a broad guideline of what is acceptable to you.

Maybe you should widen your guidelines for plays, you may actually add a few more winners into the mix instead of sitting on them because a line moved 5 cents.

For the hundredth time good luck. Not worth anymore time as we won't agree on this or basically anything else

[ebemiss]

My bad, as long you beat the closing line, why would you need luck?

[Love The Action]

Here's the problem, your perception of who the public is on. From the line moves based on opening numbers. You were on 2 very public plays, Minnesota and Colorado. Red's moved 1 cent, towards the winning side.


http://www.scoresandodds.com/yesterday.html?sort=rot

Just an fyi...you can't use scoresnodds to track betting percentages because they only use data from sportsbook.com. Clearly, that is not representative of the true market because it does not have all offshore book info. The better free option is sports spy as that has info from six major books. Otherwise, go wirh a pay service like sports insights so you know where the overall market is placing their wagers.

[Love The Action]

heres a post about closer came across LTA
We all can agree Pinnacle sports is razor sharp and read below how they identify long term winners "Sharp Accounts"



If a player consistently beats our closing price at Pinnacle Sports, he is likely to be a long-term winner - period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player's future winning potential than their historical win/loss record with the company.
For example, if our closing price on the Eagles was -3 -104 and a customer played -3 +105 earlier in the week - that was a sharp bet. When a player can anticipate the line movement and does this consistently over a series of 100 bets or more, that player is conclusively sharp and will be up substantially in the long run.
What's the quickest way to identify a player that needs to adjust their style of betting? One who pays a bad price. If other online sports books offer the Eagles at -3 -120 and a player wagers there instead when a better price was available elsewhere such as -3 -104 at Pinnacle Sports, he is almost certainly not sharp. Even if he has been winning thus far, that player will probably lose over time.

Great post....good job. Straight from pinny....

[ebemiss]

Just an fyi...you can't use scoresnodds to track betting percentages because they only use data from sportsbook.com. Clearly, that is not representative of the true market because it does not have all offshore book info. The better free option is sports spy as that has info from six major books. Otherwise, go wirh a pay service like sports insights so you know where the overall market is placing their wagers.

More great advice. Go with a pay service like Sports Insights that get information from the sports books. I'm sure that information isn't send out to mislead anyone or manipulated.

Anybody ever get the "public" play emails from sports insights or any other of those garbage consensus sites. They are worthless. They are trying to get you to buy a service that isn't accurate.

Follow those percentages, and beat the closing line on those plays in particular and you're sure to take it in the shorts. Consistently.

PUBLIC PERCENTAGES GATHERED BY SPORTSBOOKS IS GARBAGE INFORMATION. DON'T USE THEM OR SUBSCRIBE TO THEM.

[Love The Action]

I'd be careful taking "investing" advice from a guy who's risked 700 plays to make +20 units. Maybe that person should stop being stubborn and worrying about the closing line and they'd find a higher rate of success.

Plus I never used an example of 2 dog bettors. I used an example of a person who beat the closing line as a favorite bettor and lost his bet. The guy who bet the dog missed out on 10 cents but won the bet. Don't twist my example around to fit your bogus theory.

[ebemiss]

Come on LTA how about another Tony Robbins speech how August is going to be your month.

Or wait, how about posting how many units you COULD HAVE been up if it wasn't for those darn losing plays.

How about another bad beat post, let us know.

Actually how about stop wasting everyone's time with lengthy write-ups on plays that lose.

[southpaw74]

The vast majority would have reloaded their accounts many times over a 700 play sample period so I would say being up anything makes LTA a winner regardless of the "system" he uses.

[Love The Action]

More great advice. Go with a pay service like Sports Insights that get information from the sports books. I'm sure that information isn't send out to mislead anyone or manipulated.

Anybody ever get the "public" play emails from sports insights or any other of those garbage consensus sites. They are worthless. They are trying to get you to buy a service that isn't accurate.

Follow those percentages, and beat the closing line on those plays in particular and you're sure to take it in the shorts. Consistently.

PUBLIC PERCENTAGES GATHERED BY SPORTSBOOKS IS GARBAGE INFORMATION. DON'T USE THEM OR SUBSCRIBE TO THEM.

But your use of scoresnodds is accurate?

Please explain how?

You are seriously making yourself look like a noob. I know that, for whatever reason, you don't like me. However, don't make that the reason you keep making these absurd comments.

Don't be so sensitive. Remember, you were the one who came in here trying to day that best price and beating the closer doesn't matter. Don't use your desire to lash out at me as the reason you make yourself sound silly.

[ebemiss]

But your use of scoresnodds is accurate?

Please explain how?

You are seriously making yourself look like a noob. I know that, for whatever reason, you don't like me. However, don't make that the reason you keep making these absurd comments.

Don't be so sensitive. Remember, you were the one who came in here trying to day that best price and beating the closer doesn't matter. Don't use your desire to lash out at me as the reason you make yourself sound silly.

I just posted a link. The first one I grabbed. That's it. I track lines all day at multiple books and it seems to work for me. Others use a line service. I don't.

[ebemiss]

Anyone who knows anything about gambling and picking winners knows I understand what's going on. Continue to take cheap shots at my intelligence and I'll continue the same.

[Love The Action]

Come on LTA how about another Tony Robbins speech how August is going to be your month.

Or wait, how about posting how many units you COULD HAVE been up if it wasn't for those darn losing plays.

How about another bad beat post, let us know.

Actually how about stop wasting everyone's time with lengthy write-ups on plays that lose.

You just make yourself look worse and worse.

Ask yourself, why am I so mad at LTA? Is it because you came in my thread trying to look smart and make me look bad, but ended doing the complete opposite?

You can attack me all you want, but if you you truly believe price and beatibg closers does not matter, you need to go back to the noob section. You are becoming laughable now.

[ebemiss]

You just make yourself look worse and worse.

Ask yourself, why am I so mad at LTA? Is it because you came in my thread trying to look smart and make me look bad, but ended doing the complete opposite?

You can attack me all you want, but if you you truly believe price and beatibg closers does not matter, you need to go back to the noob section. You are becoming laughable now.

Ok. Just continue to post how you beat the closing line on losing picks. If my math is right you've lost 17 units in a short period of time.

Please explain one last time for the audience how beating the closing line is helping in your handicapping profit this month. You're on record that your beating the closing line at a HIGH pct. Too bad we deal in cash and winning picks and not your "feel good" beat the closer wampum.

Joke

[1Time!]

Dear Ebemiss,
Seriously gtfo of this thread - you're not required. If we wanted to read your jibba jabba we'd read your thread.

Kind Regards,
LTA's thread followers

[Love The Action]

Anyone who knows anything about gambling and picking winners knows I understand what's going on. Continue to take cheap shots at my intelligence and I'll continue the same.

I never took a shot at your intelligence. You did that for me when you said getting the best price and beating the closer does not matter.

Then, to make yourself look even sillier, you claim that a free website wirh one book's betting percentages is better than a pay service with all the books betting percentages. Obviously, the pay site with comprehensive info for the market as a whole is better. However, you would rather make yourself look silly than acknowledge I am right simply because you hold a personal grudge for god knows what reason.

Keep responding and burying yourself. This is great stuff

[ebemiss]

Beating the closing line on losing picks and bragging about it, like you do, is something my friend that can't make you look any more foolish.

Continued success at beating the closer and losing the bet.

[ebemiss]

Dear Ebemiss,
Seriously gtfo of this thread - you're not required. If we wanted to read your jibba jabba we'd read your thread.

Kind Regards,
LTA's thread followers

You got it. Make sure to stick up for the guy posting losing picks but beating the closing line.

[DigBick86]

fuker

[hawley]

What kind of person comes into someones thread and attacks them for no reason?

Get out of here mate

[Love The Action]

LTA I appreciate your analysis on the games but have a question on the det\kc under. What does your model have for a total? I question because the detroit trend to the over againts losing teams this year. (38-20 OU) I dont see the 9 at my book, 8.5.

I am looking at chi sox\minny under. trend is 8-10 under this year. Minny not scoring lately. two ok pitchers. What is your lean in this game. Asking because of your betting of totals. Thanks.

I have that one at 7.6. I would say detroits success against other losing teams has no bearing on the result of tonights game. They are separate and independent results. Good luck

[Love The Action]

Were did you get the umps for todays games?I saw that you knew the ump for the Tigers game and i have serached the whole net without finding so would be very gratefull if you could help me

I get mine from SI. But there are free options out there as well. Check the CTG forum as their is often solid ump info for free. Phil Cuzzi is umping tonights detroit game. Good luck

[Love The Action]

Beating the closing line on losing picks and bragging about it, like you do, is something my friend that can't make you look any more foolish.

Continued success at beating the closer and losing the bet.

I'm beating all three closers as it currently stands again tonight!

Good luck sir

[miguelj]

I told you i knew where this was going.

[Love The Action]

Thinking about adding the yanks? Can CC lose to the redsox for fifth time this year. -130 is a solid price...i have it -140 .

Thoughts?

[Love The Action]

I told you i knew where this was going.

It's all in good fun.

What do you think of the yanks tonight?

[miguelj]

he hasnt beaten the redsox yet this might be the day 0-4 no wins

[Luv2Play2]

Big game !!! Take the dog gl always

[Love The Action]

he hasnt beaten the redsox yet this might be the day 0-4 no wins

Can boston beat him for a fifth time, second with Lackey? I don't think so. Thoughts?