treat these MLB teams like Options

[Believe_EMT]

completely understand your position Oil. my bets were less than $20 the first time i started pursuing this thing. end of the season i was up $1,100 and thought i was on my way to amassing a fortune. turns out the results are like any other we engage in when the independent events creep up into the thousands. i over bet the next season when the system was negative mid-may and i lost it all back and then some. that is why i pulled the plug when i hit +20 units this season.

we all start somewhere man.

sorry i have no way to help on the optioning out part and the workload. maybe i'm just used to the cadence of the whole thing.

gl moving forward. hope to see you hanging around sbr and winning.

[Combato]

Another suggestion may be to pass on any team with a win pct of < 40%. Detroit, KC, Balt, Tor, Miami

Also, don't like fading Houston or LAD. Both are 66% WP for the year.

[Combato]

Curious to see what you are on today.

At 7 AM, I decided to play on St Louis and Milw. Looking for games with a hold around .7% or less. Game selection will be to play the early moves.

St Louis /NYM game had a hold of .36% at 7 AM ( Play) Early Move on St Louis
MLW / SF game had a hold of .7% at 7 AM ( Play) Early Move on MLW

CLV should be positive on both these teams at by game time. Curious to see if EMT is on the these games with no option cancel by game time.

[oilcountry99]

completely understand your position Oil. my bets were less than $20 the first time i started pursuing this thing. end of the season i was up $1,100 and thought i was on my way to amassing a fortune. turns out the results are like any other we engage in when the independent events creep up into the thousands. i over bet the next season when the system was negative mid-may and i lost it all back and then some. that is why i pulled the plug when i hit +20 units this season.

we all start somewhere man.

sorry i have no way to help on the optioning out part and the workload. maybe i'm just used to the cadence of the whole thing.

gl moving forward. hope to see you hanging around sbr and winning.

I'm still hanging around and tracking this method...I like it's bones. EMT I hope your up $$ at seasons end hang in there

Nice to see Combato back offering insight

[dogman]

Oil, the Miller book is great. If your using openers I think BOL which comes out first is the one to use. I've used Heritage but they come out after the lines have settled in. Which book to use as an opener seems like the big question.

[oilcountry99]

Oil, the Miller book is great. If your using openers I think BOL which comes out first is the one to use. I've used Heritage but they come out after the lines have settled in. Which book to use as an opener seems like the big question.

I enjoyed the read as well, hopefully I can absorb a little more the second time around

[Believe_EMT]

stl 117
pit 122
sd +134
mil 139
chc +156
sea +121

With Options: 17.53 Units
W/O Options: 7.57 Units

[Believe_EMT]

great stuff Combato, thanks for sharing. i need to make an effort to read the book. Oil bashing the opting out part...that hurts. but i am in agreement, it would be nice to be able to place early bets and then walk away until the next morning.

refining the system is why i shared it. and to have other grinders find a conservative way to slowly build their bankroll.

[Believe_EMT]

read an excerpt from the book. convinced me to start playing the over nights before they become over night lines. played at 9:15 pm last night. i don't know how to track them differently, but the last thing i want is additional work. i'll post them when i play them, but maybe post the additional morning plays. no one is playing for cash at this point right?

nym +140
sd 125
cle 126

With Options: 18.43 Units
W/O Options: 11.62 Units

[oilcountry99]

great stuff Combato, thanks for sharing. i need to make an effort to read the book. Oil bashing the opting out part...that hurts. but i am in agreement, it would be nice to be able to place early bets and then walk away until the next morning.

refining the system is why i shared it. and to have other grinders find a conservative way to slowly build their bankroll.

lol, I wasn't bashing it, for me it's just difficult to implement.

[oilcountry99]

Combato...
I don’t understand the Millers concept about reducing the hold and how to implement it within the context of this thread and what EMT Is trying to do. Can you elaborate on it a bit more for us simpletons out here (I’m probably the only one). Do I need accounts at several books in order to do this?
Appreciate your feedback

[Believe_EMT]

ari 142
tor +108
cle 128
bos 113
sea 123
pit 142
cin +150

With Options: 16.93 Units
W/O Options: 10.47 Units

[Combato]

great stuff Combato, thanks for sharing. i need to make an effort to read the book. Oil bashing the opting out part...that hurts. but i am in agreement, it would be nice to be able to place early bets and then walk away until the next morning.

refining the system is why i shared it. and to have other grinders find a conservative way to slowly build their bankroll.

Im not sure the book will help based on my first few days of watching it ( 2 wins, 9 losses) but sample is ridiculously low.

The book is worth a read. Would be interested in your take on it since this system is your brainchild and you know all the nuances where the book may be of some value.

[Combato]

You definitely need at a number of outs to make this work if you are trying to be into a low hold situation. Not for sure if it would really help here either. On paper, I am 2 and 9 betting into these low hold games so I am backing off and observing it until I get a better handle on it.

The book section on parlays is a real eye opener. This isn't really news but if a person can hit around 58 to 59 Pct winners, parlays can be beaten according to Miller. Of course, all u have to do is hit 58%??? Hmm.

[Believe_EMT]

getting too busy for daily updates, might be change coming

sd 105
atl 147
mia +160
ari 137
tb 124
laa 148
chc 140

[dogman]

I played this method for a while but have since stopped a few days ago. If you would like to find the hold for any line go to oddscoach under betting calculators. In this method betting into reduced lines is key because of the low hold. But I noticed having to opt out to much based on the reverse movement of the lines before game time. If you are on the right side of the movement most of the time then I could see where this could work but the important thing missed in this method is were not betting into the openers when they first come out, were betting them after the movement and the lines have settled.

What I learned with this method that EMT was nice enough to share is this-if you bet a game and the line has moved against you, you may want to opt out.

[Believe_EMT]

cle 127

[Believe_EMT]

record update

With Options: 13.97 Units
W/O Options: 6.97 Units

think it's time to dive back in boys. wish me luck please, it will be needed.

[Believe_EMT]

The book section on parlays is a real eye opener. This isn't really news but if a person can hit around 58 to 59 Pct winners, parlays can be beaten according to Miller. Of course, all u have to do is hit 58%??? Hmm.

holy cow, i think this Miller guy might be sharing a brain with me.

years ago i posted a thread across the street (ed's place) proving that betting parlays was, in theory, a viable option. i think i went even lower though and used 55% winners to prove my point. the math certainly supports it being a viable option. i hope he mentions in the book while they work in the theoretical world, pratical application has too many pitfalls because those 55% or 58% will have no rhyme or reason to their distribution. Ganch posted something similar, but much better and more detailed on here around the same time. odd timing. i'll dig that thread up and link it in here if any is interested.

i really need to read this book!

[Believe_EMT]

What I learned with this method that EMT was nice enough to share is this-if you bet a game and the line has moved against you, you may want to opt out.

right. that was my hypothesis. if the market is indeed efficient (as i obviously believe it is), then +CLV equates to long term winners while -CLV does the opposite. so why not opt out of -CLV plays and limit our losses?

this year is way off the charts strange though. i'm not sure what is going on. since 2013 i was generating +CLV on ~65% of plays. This year it is hovering around 52%. that is a very large difference. i don't know if the early line movement people won a ton of exited the market. because initially i thought the midday players had better info and moved lines accordingly, but it is happening too often for that to be the case. even stranger is we are getting absolutely crushed on +CLV Faves in June with a record of 7-22 and down 16.22 Units.

i can only explain it with 'math always wins' and regression to the mean sucks and whatever other cliche we can use. over 1,000+ games of this system, +CLV faves were hitting at 58%. through april and may this year that number was 75%. so this market correction through june has them at 61% for the season.

this is the sixth season doing this in some form or fashion and i have seen this much disconnect between the overnight and midday movers. open to suggestions...

[Believe_EMT]

wsh 138
pit 110
mil 124
det +158
kc +138


suspecting pit, det and kc to move against us

[oilcountry99]

EMT...good info, thanks for sharing and good luck as you jump back in!

[Believe_EMT]

nym +125
sd 117
atl +113
sea 154

With Options: 15.52 Units
W/O Options: 5.56 Units


broke the rule with sea being larger than 150, but 15 cents less than pinny, so why not.

thanks Oil!

[Believe_EMT]

sd 147
nym 110
hou 122
kc +144
tex 128
stl 127

With Options: 16.64 Units
W/O Options: 5.66 Units

[Believe_EMT]

sf +120

With Options: 17.52 Units
W/O Options: 5.67 Units

[Believe_EMT]

nym +130
atl 113
tb 111
oak +120

[Believe_EMT]

col 135
phi 142
mia +141
det 109
bal +120

[Believe_EMT]

nym +119
tex 113

[dogman]

I want to thank EMT for this thread. Basically what I have been doing is playing reduced lines and then opting out of any games where the line has moved against me. I don't use the method for picking the games here but it really doesn't matter how you pick them.

One thing that crossed my mind with this system is that you could play both teams that are playing each other at reduced lines and then opt out of the team that the line moved against by playing their opponent and keeping the other bet. That way you will always have a bet on the team that the lines moved for. But the downfall and probably why this won't work is that in every game you will be taking a loss and that will add up. I don't think doing this will improve the results so I will just stick to one bet and opting out if need.

[Believe_EMT]

nym 121
pit +135
sd 120
tor 110
det +143

With Options: 18.68 Units
W/O Options: 4.07 Units

people really trust their models when they back pit and det

[Believe_EMT]

Dman-

no thanks needed, i'm sure i'm not the only person day trading mlb teams

i also toyed with the idea of just randomly picking teams at open and betting reduced lines. 5Dimes, i don't know when they post reduced lines, but i'm in pittsburgh and have checked at 10 pm and they aren't posted. i get up 5:30 and they've already been moved by sharp money.

the problem with retro fitting a system to pick, say reviewing the line movements for trends (home div dogs) or something, is that books would have refined their opening lines by now and that value will be gone.

keep fighting the good fight

[Believe_EMT]

phi 125
nym 104
chc +110
lad 140
sf +125
sd 122
nyy 139

With Options: 20.87 Units
W/O Options: 4.99 Units

time to hit pause button again. market timing will burn me at some point, might even be today.

[oilcountry99]

My results for comparison:

With Options: 8.27 Units
W/O Options:18.40 Units

Basically the reverse of EMT.....
I can only think it's the difference in selections over a 336 game sample.

[Believe_EMT]

chc 117
ari 102
stl +107
atl +101
tor 123

will talk later Oil

thanks

[oilcountry99]

EMT, after further review there could be several reasons for the discrepancy, the key is both tracking results are in the plus