MLB 2018 - SDQL / Tracking / Picks

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  • FUqer
    SBR MVP
    • 01-22-15
    • 3968

    #211
    Originally posted by 2daBank
    Lol. Once again my perception and reality not the same! I guess on bright side like yanks on Saturday I kinda take that as I'm doing good capping cause have done well with both! Lol

    This one tho, there really nothing to like bout over at all, I thought the roof open could be problem for under but appears not! Thanks for taking the time brother, really appreciate it!!
    Astros have been over aggressive at the plate and if they continue that against Ross, who I think has some pretty decent off speed stuff, they could lay another egg and Morton can fling it and should get a lot of K's.
    Comment
    • FUqer
      SBR MVP
      • 01-22-15
      • 3968

      #212
      Sunday 4/8/18 MLB Plays

      ¤ Reds/Pirates FF Under 4 -110


      ___________________
      Comment
      • 2daBank
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-26-09
        • 88966

        #213
        Originally posted by FUqer
        Astros have been over aggressive at the plate and if they continue that against Ross, who I think has some pretty decent off speed stuff, they could lay another egg and Morton can fling it and should get a lot of K's.
        Yea I agree, I got down on under for half a unit.
        Comment
        • FUqer
          SBR MVP
          • 01-22-15
          • 3968

          #214
          Originally posted by FUqer
          Sunday 4/8/18 MLB Plays

          ¤ Reds/Pirates FF Under 4 -110


          ___________________
          ¤ Marlins/Phillies Under 8 +100
          Comment
          • 2daBank
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-26-09
            • 88966

            #215
            Man I took my first -200 fav in a parlay today (wanted to have something on cards but wasn't down w -150 so needed a partner) and already regretting it. Pitching mismatch looked so strong for tribe but they just can't freaking hit. Looks like I'm stuck in a game on the overpriced fav similar to your astros play yesterday, or rest of this series! Not a good feeling, dunno how guys bet these favs constantly and feel good about it!! lol
            Comment
            • FUqer
              SBR MVP
              • 01-22-15
              • 3968

              #216
              ¤ Braves/Rockies Under 11 +100
              Comment
              • FUqer
                SBR MVP
                • 01-22-15
                • 3968

                #217
                wow, wtf, 1-0 going into bottom of 5th and Pirates explode, still thought it was gonna be a push then another 2 out 2 run homer. FML today.
                Comment
                • 2daBank
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-26-09
                  • 88966

                  #218
                  Originally posted by FUqer
                  wow, wtf, 1-0 going into bottom of 5th and Pirates explode, still thought it was gonna be a push then another 2 out 2 run homer. FML today.
                  This day turning into a real pain in the ass for me., that what I get for starting off with a stupid -200 fav in a parlay, this tribe offense excruciating to watch make this bum Hammel look like cy young!! Man I thought tribe had such a big advantage in this one, never again!! Lol

                  Then the reds disaster happened, I was really hopeful yesterday might get their offense to start plating some stinking runs, guess not.
                  Comment
                  • FUqer
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-22-15
                    • 3968

                    #219
                    ¤ Mets/Nationals Over 8 -105

                    ¤ Parlay (WIN - Astros -275)(Nationals -170)
                    ____________________

                    Adding Nationals and Over. GL!
                    Comment
                    • FUqer
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-22-15
                      • 3968

                      #220
                      Originally posted by 2daBank
                      This day turning into a real pain in the ass for me., that what I get for starting off with a stupid -200 fav in a parlay, this tribe offense excruciating to watch make this bum Hammel look like cy young!! Man I thought tribe had such a big advantage in this one, never again!! Lol

                      Then the reds disaster happened, I was really hopeful yesterday might get their offense to start plating some stinking runs, guess not.
                      That Reds/Pirates 5th inning was a rough one, 1-0 and they score 4 runs and nobody scores the rest of the game and the Under hits. I felt real dumb taking the FF, but trying to use common sense and baseball don't mix a lot of the times and I thought it was better to avoid those pens, but I loved the starters. Then 1st innings have been killing me the last 2 days, 5 in the Phillies games and Under loses by a run, but that's baseball, I got lucky a few times so far and been unlucky a few times.
                      Comment
                      • FUqer
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-22-15
                        • 3968

                        #221
                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                        Man I took my first -200 fav in a parlay today (wanted to have something on cards but wasn't down w -150 so needed a partner) and already regretting it. Pitching mismatch looked so strong for tribe but they just can't freaking hit. Looks like I'm stuck in a game on the overpriced fav similar to your astros play yesterday, or rest of this series! Not a good feeling, dunno how guys bet these favs constantly and feel good about it!! lol
                        I know a guy who post everyday and runs a parlays system of mostly high chalk 3 and 4 teamers and splits them up and leaves spots open and then hedges the final spot every time and it seems to work for him. I also seen a guy start posting and started out like 15-3 on multi unit high chalk plays and thought he was the best ever and then went a a losing streak and the juice ate him alive, never saw him again lol.
                        Comment
                        • FUqer
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-22-15
                          • 3968

                          #222
                          Sunday 4/8/18 MLB Results

                          2-3 for -1.10

                          LOSS - ¤ Reds/Pirates FF Under 4 -110
                          LOSS - ¤ Marlins/Phillies Under 8 +100
                          WIN - ¤ Braves/Rockies Under 11 +100
                          WIN - ¤ Mets/Nationals Over 8 -105

                          LOSS - ¤ Parlay (WIN - Astros -275)(LOSS - Nationals -170)

                          ____________________
                          Season = 23-15 for +8.25
                          _____________________
                          ML = 8-6 for +2.02
                          (Dogs = 4-3 for +1.20)
                          (Favs = 4-3 for +0.82)

                          RL = 4-2 for +2.05

                          O/U = 11-6 for +5.18
                          (Overs = 3-0 for +3.00)
                          (Unders = 8-6 for +2.18)
                          Parlays = 0-1 for -1.00
                          _____________________

                          Past Results

                          (Week 2 = 14-11 for +2.97)

                          4/08 = 2-3 for -1.10
                          4/07 = 2-3 for -1.00
                          4/06 = 0-2 for -2.00
                          4/05 = 3-2 for +1.00
                          4/04 = 2-0 for +2.00
                          4/02 = 5-1 for +4.07

                          (Week 1 = 9-4 for +5.28)

                          4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
                          3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
                          3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
                          3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
                          ______________________

                          Had one bad inning in both my Under losses that cost me and the Nationals would of most likely have won if Harper would of took 3rd base on the throwing error, but whatever, I can't complain a too much after the first two weeks.
                          Comment
                          • OlDirtyBaztid
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 05-28-17
                            • 953

                            #223
                            great start to the season, bro. if your pirates can get some hitters and fix their bullpen, they will be very impressive. their starting rotation has finally come together and is looking FIRE
                            Comment
                            • FUqer
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-22-15
                              • 3968

                              #224
                              SDQL 4/9

                              ALL
                              = Yesterday 2-2 for +0.00 (Season: 26-19 for +8.95)

                              ML
                              = Yesterday 1-2 for -1.00 (Season: 20-15 for +6.50)
                              RL
                              = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 3-0 for +3.65)
                              OU
                              = Yesterday 1-0 for +1.00 (Season: 3-4 for -1.20)


                              ---------------------------------
                              SU


                              FADE
                              : Astros: -28.0% ROI (68-100)
                              s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5


                              FADE
                              : White Sox: -37.3% ROI (21-48)
                              H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1


                              PLAY
                              : Giants, Rangers, Padres, Twins: +13.7% ROI (897-891)
                              179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79


                              PLAY
                              : Nationals: +11.5% ROI (1047-632)
                              H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)


                              PLAY
                              : Nationals: +32.2% ROI (37-13)
                              HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL


                              PLAY
                              : Angels: +10.0% ROI (561-390)
                              (p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)


                              PLAY
                              : Angels: +9.2% ROI (249-151)
                              AF and pp:LOB=14 and 7<p:LOB<18 and -3<p:margin


                              PLAY
                              : Twins: +10.2% ROI (146-116)
                              STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3


                              FADE: Mets: Teams on the Road after playing on the Road on Sunday night the previous with no rest have lost their last 10.

                              p:NGT and day=Monday and rest=0 and A and p:A and date>=20170522


                              -----------------------------------
                              OU



                              UNDER
                              : Rays/White Sox: +26.2% ROI (44-22-3)
                              H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1


                              UNDER
                              : Braves/Nationals: +20.4% ROI (31-18-1)
                              HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL


                              UNDER
                              : Astros/Twins: +25.0% ROI (168-87-7)
                              STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3

                              __________________________

                              SDQL PLAYS



                              ML



                              Rays -130
                              Nationals -230
                              Twins +150
                              Angels -125
                              Padres +170
                              Giants +105
                              Marlins +190

                              OU



                              Rays/White Sox Under 7.5 -120
                              Braves/Nationals Under 7.5 +105
                              Astros/Twins Under 8.0 -105

                              ___________________________


                              I ran my model for totals, but I'm not liking all the Overs lately and even though it managed to go 7-7 yesterday, I'm going to hold off on posting them until the weather warms up a bit. This is only my 4th season for MLB and I only created my model midway through last season, so I have no experience with it in April and these cold weather games and how the best adjust to it. It's done decent so far, but these last couple of days it seems the books have adjusted to the weather pretty good, so the value on Unders are gone.
                              Comment
                              • FUqer
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-22-15
                                • 3968

                                #225
                                Phillies vs a lefty looks great cept I don't like heavily public backed sides.

                                D-Backs vs that Lefty is tempting, D-Backs were atrocious early last year on the Road vs lefties, but were strong in the 2nd half in that spot and are lights out vs them at Home and Holland is pretty garbage.

                                Orioles seems to own Happ and do decent vs lefties, might be a good option.

                                Maybe the Royals and Junis, but I would like to see the lineups, but I got to leave for a couple of hours and don't have time to really look into to anything right now.
                                Comment
                                • FUqer
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-22-15
                                  • 3968

                                  #226
                                  Originally posted by OlDirtyBaztid
                                  great start to the season, bro. if your pirates can get some hitters and fix their bullpen, they will be very impressive. their starting rotation has finally come together and is looking FIRE
                                  Could be another year where they surprise a lot of people when nobody expected very much from them. I thought they would have a good offense, but that pitching is still suspect. Nova hasn't looked too good at all so far and that worries me. I don't think they'll have enough pitching to compete with the Cubs or Cardinals, but one can hope for the best.
                                  Comment
                                  • FUqer
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-22-15
                                    • 3968

                                    #227
                                    This Season So Far, I will update every month or so.


                                    Favorites = 59.5% for -0.4% ROI
                                    Dogs = 40.5% for -4.3% ROI


                                    Home = 46.7% for -11.1% ROI
                                    Away = 53.3% for +8.3% ROI


                                    Road Favs = 63.8% for +8.9% ROI
                                    Home Favs = 56.2% for -6.9% ROI


                                    Road Dogs = 43.8% for +5.5% ROI
                                    Home Dogs = 36.2% for -16.8% ROI


                                    Favs -100 to -125 = 53.3% for -0.2% ROI
                                    Favs -126 to -150 = 63.9% for +9.7% ROI
                                    Favs -151 to -175 = 55.0% for -10.7% ROI
                                    Favs -176 to -200 = 50.0% for -23.5% ROI
                                    Favs -201 to -250 = 75.0% for +9.0% ROI
                                    Favs -251+ = 66.7% for -10.4% ROI


                                    O/U = 61-70-4 for -9.3% ROI for Overs and +1.3% ROI for Unders
                                    Comment
                                    • FUqer
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-22-15
                                      • 3968

                                      #228
                                      Monday 4/9/18 MLB Plays

                                      ¤ Phillies -1 +110
                                      ____________________

                                      I gotta go with the Phillies today even though they are popular with the public. I like them vs lefties and Cody Reed has a 0-11 team record for his career and Lively isn't that bad of a pitcher, he just didn't get very good run support last year. Favs in this price range so far this season have been pretty good, so I'll hope that continues today. GL!
                                      Comment
                                      • FUqer
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-22-15
                                        • 3968

                                        #229
                                        SDQL addition.

                                        FADE
                                        : Mets: Teams on the Road after playing on the Road on Sunday night the previous with no rest have lost their last 10.

                                        0-10 (-2.40, 0.0%) avg line: -127.3 / 112.5 on / against: -$1,388 / +$1,321 ROI: -100.0% / +105.4%
                                        1-9 (-2.10, 10.0%) avg line: -142.3 / 121.8 on / against: -$1,205 / +$1,060 ROI: -79.5% / +96.8%
                                        3-7-0 (-1.25, 30.0%) avg total: 9.1 over / under: -$440 / +$375 ROI: -40.9% / +33.3%
                                        Comment
                                        • 2daBank
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 88966

                                          #230
                                          Originally posted by FUqer
                                          I know a guy who post everyday and runs a parlays system of mostly high chalk 3 and 4 teamers and splits them up and leaves spots open and then hedges the final spot every time and it seems to work for him. I also seen a guy start posting and started out like 15-3 on multi unit high chalk plays and thought he was the best ever and then went a a losing streak and the juice ate him alive, never saw him again lol.
                                          Oh yea I've seen a bunch of those types over the years. Doesn't take many losses to bury that winning streak! I don't mind the parlay method, that only way I'll play them but always 2 teams and usually don't go over the -200 range and typically have one of them lot lower than that. I def think doing them open is the way to go if you gonna do them (saw you had a open one over weekend didn't see if you closed) instead of forcing the plays to close it out. Wanna play cards and there lot of high priced favs tonight, thinking maybe cards/muts even tho I think urena's gets underpriced quite often as squares always fading fish and metrics guys don't like him either typically leading to some value on him. Just like way muts playing right now I think will do cards/muts 2 teamer!
                                          Comment
                                          • FUqer
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-22-15
                                            • 3968

                                            #231
                                            Originally posted by FUqer
                                            Monday 4/9/18 MLB Plays

                                            ¤ Phillies -1 +110
                                            ____________________
                                            ¤ Orioles -113

                                            ________________
                                            Comment
                                            • 2daBank
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-26-09
                                              • 88966

                                              #232
                                              Originally posted by FUqer
                                              Could be another year where they surprise a lot of people when nobody expected very much from them. I thought they would have a good offense, but that pitching is still suspect. Nova hasn't looked too good at all so far and that worries me. I don't think they'll have enough pitching to compete with the Cubs or Cardinals, but one can hope for the best.
                                              Trading Cole was such a mistake if they wanted to compete (didn't sound like they got all that much for him either? Like a bag of balls and player to be named later! Lol). Agree w offense but yea that starting rotation still pretty suspect imo. Think opponents have helped how they looked so far.
                                              Comment
                                              • FUqer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-22-15
                                                • 3968

                                                #233
                                                Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                Trading Cole was such a mistake if they wanted to compete (didn't sound like they got all that much for him either? Like a bag of balls and player to be named later! Lol). Agree w offense but yea that starting rotation still pretty suspect imo. Think opponents have helped how they looked so far.
                                                yea Tigers and Reds and a split with the Twins, not exactly tough competition outside of the Twins who are decent. Might of had a chance if they kept Cole and Cutch. I've always been a fan of Cole's passion and I think playing for the Astros is gonna give him a jolt, he seemed a little disinterested last year and that was unusual for him. It wouldn't surprise me if he demanded to be traded.

                                                Chacin is pretty garbage, 0-6 team record vs Cards too.
                                                Thor has been one of the more impressive pitchers so far this season to me.
                                                Comment
                                                • FUqer
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                  • 3968

                                                  #234
                                                  wow, the Rays got so lucky there with 0 outs and man on 2nd and 3rd and 3 str8 weak ground ball outs, avoiding a 9 game losing streak.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • FUqer
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-22-15
                                                    • 3968

                                                    #235
                                                    Just tuned into Phillies game, bases loaded for Reds and 0 outs already, another 1st inning disaster, yikes. Long game though, at least it's not a under play.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 2daBank
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                      • 88966

                                                      #236
                                                      Originally posted by FUqer
                                                      Just tuned into Phillies game, bases loaded for Reds and 0 outs already, another 1st inning disaster, yikes. Long game though, at least it's not a under play.
                                                      In what turning into typical putrid reds fashion they only get the 1 run! That another offense that been absolute dog shit early on. They have few guys hitting but nobody doing so w men on base.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • FUqer
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-22-15
                                                        • 3968

                                                        #237
                                                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                        In what turning into typical putrid reds fashion they only get the 1 run! That another offense that been absolute dog shit early on. They have few guys hitting but nobody doing so w men on base.
                                                        yep, got lucky there and just dodged a based loaded situation for the Blue Jays, could be my lucky day.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 2daBank
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 01-26-09
                                                          • 88966

                                                          #238
                                                          Originally posted by FUqer
                                                          yep, got lucky there and just dodged a based loaded situation for the Blue Jays, could be my lucky day.
                                                          I'm losing patients fast for cards. Between the stupid manager and the continued redic stupid base running I can't take much more!! 2 leadoff hits and both guys get thrown out trying to take a extra base!! Just unreal the level of stupid on this team since matheny been in charge!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • FUqer
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-22-15
                                                            • 3968

                                                            #239
                                                            Originally posted by FUqer
                                                            Monday 4/9/18 MLB Plays

                                                            ¤ Phillies -1 +110
                                                            ____________________
                                                            Originally posted by FUqer
                                                            ¤ Orioles -113

                                                            ________________
                                                            ¤ D-Backs TT Over 4 +105
                                                            ¤ D-Backs/Giants Over 7.5 -110
                                                            Comment
                                                            • FUqer
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-22-15
                                                              • 3968

                                                              #240
                                                              Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                              I'm losing patients fast for cards. Between the stupid manager and the continued redic stupid base running I can't take much more!! 2 leadoff hits and both guys get thrown out trying to take a extra base!! Just unreal the level of stupid on this team since matheny been in charge!!
                                                              Been lots of bad base running so far, Harper prolly cost them the game last night.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • FUqer
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-22-15
                                                                • 3968

                                                                #241
                                                                Monday 4/9/18 MLB Results

                                                                0-3-1 for -3.23

                                                                PUSH - ¤ Phillies -1 +110
                                                                LOSS - ¤ Orioles -113

                                                                LOSS - ¤ D-Backs TT Over 4 +105
                                                                LOSS - ¤ D-Backs/Giants Over 7.5 -110

                                                                ____________________
                                                                Season = 23-18 for +5.02
                                                                _____________________

                                                                ML = 8-7 for +0.89
                                                                (Dogs = 4-3 for +1.20)
                                                                (Favs = 4-4 for -0.31)

                                                                RL = 4-2 for +2.05

                                                                O/U = 11-8 for +3.08
                                                                (Overs = 3-2 for +0.90)
                                                                (Unders = 8-6 for +2.18)

                                                                Parlays = 0-1 for -1.00
                                                                _____________________
                                                                Past Results

                                                                4/09 = 0-3 for -3.23

                                                                (Week 2 = 14-11 for +2.97)

                                                                4/08 = 2-3 for -1.10
                                                                4/07 = 2-3 for -1.00
                                                                4/06 = 0-2 for -2.00
                                                                4/05 = 3-2 for +1.00
                                                                4/04 = 2-0 for +2.00
                                                                4/02 = 5-1 for +4.07

                                                                (Week 1 = 9-4 for +5.28)

                                                                4/01 = 4-2 for +2.07
                                                                3/31 = 3-0 for +3.11
                                                                3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
                                                                3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
                                                                ______________________

                                                                Another losing night, need to put a stop to it tomorrow. Got a couple already.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FUqer
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                                  • 3968

                                                                  #242
                                                                  Tuesday 4/10/18 MLB Plays


                                                                  ¤ Mariners -110


                                                                  ¤ Giants -111
                                                                  ____________________
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • FUqer
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-22-15
                                                                    • 3968

                                                                    #243
                                                                    Originally posted by FUqer
                                                                    Tuesday 4/10/18 MLB Plays


                                                                    ¤ Mariners -110 (Action)


                                                                    ¤ Giants -111
                                                                    ____________________
                                                                    Forgot to add that the Mariners play is an action play. All other plays are listed unless specified otherwise.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BeBrave
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 10-25-10
                                                                      • 158

                                                                      #244
                                                                      On board BOL

                                                                      What do you mean by action play?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • FUqer
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-22-15
                                                                        • 3968

                                                                        #245
                                                                        Originally posted by BeBrave
                                                                        On board BOL

                                                                        What do you mean by action play?
                                                                        Means if there is a pitching change the play still stands, unlike my Giants play which is canceled cause the listed pitcher Cueto is not pitching now. I had an outside hope that Paxton would pitch instead of Felix, so I choose Action instead of listed, and if there was a change to Paxton the line would of gone higher, but I wasn't counting on it. GL2U2!
                                                                        Comment
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