Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

[jcygts6]

so what determines a qualitfying game from a nonqualifying game?

I thought you started the system to take the biggest moneyline favorite's -1.5 RL each day? So wouldn't today's play be Detroit tigers at -1.5?

please clarify, you have an interesting system going on here

[brandon m]

No he takes the biggest moneyline fav that becomes a dog on the runline, so today cubs were -150 but +120 on the runline. Seems to work real well, whenever I've played it its hit in one or 2 games, just for small amounts but a win is a win. And the bonus is your playing a dog so the double up isn't nearly as brutal, like when your chasing favorites.

[jcygts6]

ic sounds good

[billdo75]

Cubs win 4-2. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 12-14 W2, -0.23 units
B plays: 9-5 W1, +9.38 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.13 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 26-0, +26.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 13-15 W2, -0.06 units
B plays: 9-6 W1, +7.64 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.69 units
Chase record: 26-2, +16.27 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 15-11-4 W2, +5.35 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.72 units
Chase record: 26-0, +26.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 17-11-6 W2, +7.35 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
Chase record: 26-2, +16.28 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 68-70, +10.99 units, +9.58% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 68-48-22, +29.00 units, +25.29% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 10-12, -4.15 units, -15.49% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 10-9-3, -0.60 units, -2.24% ROI

[do5000]

hi guys,

looking for some advice.
i am going onto a D bet because i was out of town last week and wasnt able to bet the CHC game.
Looks like it might be PIT for today, so im not sre what to do.
Do you think i should wait until the next B or C bet and go from there? or wait until we get really good odds regarldess what game of the chase it is?

I'm leaning towards just waiting for the next B bet since even a C bet has been rare.

thoughts?

[FreeFall]

look at the huge different between the half point on the RLs.

[keel44]

Pitt is not a play. Atlanta should be the play.....and I like it.

[billdo75]

Play for 8/4/2009:

A - Atlanta Braves -1½ +105 (-180 ML / 3rd), 0.95 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Pittsburgh Pirates +145/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
Detroit Tigers -120/-230
Florida Marlins -115/-180

So, I decided to do a little research. There have been a few poor days, but most of the time, the qualifying plays hit at a decent percentage. I'm always looking for ways to squeeze more profits, so I backchecked to 7/3 (when I started tracking all the plays) and looked at round-robin parlays with the Top-3, -4 and -5 plays each day using their respective run lines. Again, when determining the Top-x teams, we're ranking in order by ML favorite and only considering teams with a better-than-even payoff on the RL.The results:


Top-3

• max 3 parlays/day
• 6 sweeps vs 13 winless
• Overall: 72 plays, +44.48 units, +61.78% ROI
• Without Sweeps: 54 plays, -19.80 units, -27.50% ROI

Top-4

• max 6 parlays/day
• 2 sweeps vs 11 winless
• Overall: 120 plays, +55.30 units, +46.09% ROI
• Without Sweeps: 108 plays, +9.94 units, +9.20% ROI

Top-5

• max 10 parlays/day
• 0 sweeps vs 11 winless
• Overall: 160 plays, +58.00 units, +36.25% ROI

Not bad at all. I think I'm going to give it a try. The Top-5 has been a grinder, yielding some nice numbers while still going winless 11 times and without the benefit of a sweep. If/when that sweep does hit, it would be about a 45-50 unit payday.


Does anybody have any experiences with round robin parlays? Specifically, do the books tend to frown upon it? I've read about people having their accounts limited and/or cancelled because of certain activities (steam plays, etc.). Just wondering...I'm new to this whole game...

[brandon m]

Wow those numbers look good. What is a steam play.

[keel44]

Playing round robin parlays yielded more profits than your chase systems. Without your chase system, you would have never found that out. Amazing how it all fits together. I appreciate all the research you do. Good catch.

[Hybris]

I love Round Robin Parlays, for some reason i stopped playing them but i´ll think ill take them up again. In europe we also have a system play called Trixie thats 3 plays played as 3, 2team parlays and 1, 3team parlay. But i dont like em as much as i like RR.

Wish you BOL with these.

[billdo75]

Wow those numbers look good. What is a steam play.

From my understanding, it is betting at better lines at slow-moving books when an across-the-board move happens. Here's an article that explains it in better detail, I thiink. It's about halfway down, #4...

http://www.majorwager.com/guide/sports-betting-line-pros.htm

It mainly applies to those people that constantly watch line moves and try to get their bet in right before the change. If it only happens occasionally, it's probably alright, but if it happens regularly, they might start watching the bettor closely to see if they are in fact chasing steam and take their appropriate action. I also think this applies to big line moves, when serious amounts of money shift the line significantly.

[brandon m]

I read the article good stuff. Thanks billdo.

[FreeFall]

Just an idea, but what if you took the RRL for the dog and the RL for the fav since 70% of games are determined by 1 or more runs and as long as you have +odds are both sides isn't this a winning idea?

[Hybris]

Played a early RR
Cubs RL, Tigers RL, Dodgers RL, Phillies RL

[billdo75]

Braves win 9-2. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-14 W3, +0.77 units
B plays: 9-5 W1, +9.38 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.13 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 27-0, +27.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 14-15 W3, +0.94 units
B plays: 9-6 W1, +7.64 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.69 units
Chase record: 27-2, +17.27 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 16-11-4 W3, +6.35 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.72 units
Chase record: 27-0, +27.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 18-11-6 W3, +8.35 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
Chase record: 27-2, +17.28 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 69-71, +11.30 units, +9.71% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 69-49-22, +29.31 units, +25.20% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 10-14, -6.50 units, -22.30% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 10-11-3, -2.95 units, -10.12% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 8/5/2009:

A - Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +140 (-153 ML / 2nd), 0.71 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
None

Non-qualifying games on record:
Detroit Tigers +100/-184
Chicago Cubs -115/-150

[lelicek]

really good work, bildo75 !
thanks for all you make here !

[brandon m]

Play for 8/4/2009:

A - Atlanta Braves -1½ +105 (-180 ML / 3rd), 0.95 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Pittsburgh Pirates +145/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
Detroit Tigers -120/-230
Florida Marlins -115/-180

So, I decided to do a little research. There have been a few poor days, but most of the time, the qualifying plays hit at a decent percentage. I'm always looking for ways to squeeze more profits, so I backchecked to 7/3 (when I started tracking all the plays) and looked at round-robin parlays with the Top-3, -4 and -5 plays each day using their respective run lines. Again, when determining the Top-x teams, we're ranking in order by ML favorite and only considering teams with a better-than-even payoff on the RL.The results:


Top-3

• max 3 parlays/day
• 6 sweeps vs 13 winless
• Overall: 72 plays, +44.48 units, +61.78% ROI
• Without Sweeps: 54 plays, -19.80 units, -27.50% ROI

Top-4

• max 6 parlays/day
• 2 sweeps vs 11 winless
• Overall: 120 plays, +55.30 units, +46.09% ROI
• Without Sweeps: 108 plays, +9.94 units, +9.20% ROI

Top-5

• max 10 parlays/day
• 0 sweeps vs 11 winless
• Overall: 160 plays, +58.00 units, +36.25% ROI

Not bad at all. I think I'm going to give it a try. The Top-5 has been a grinder, yielding some nice numbers while still going winless 11 times and without the benefit of a sweep. If/when that sweep does hit, it would be about a 45-50 unit payday.


Does anybody have any experiences with round robin parlays? Specifically, do the books tend to frown upon it? I've read about people having their accounts limited and/or cancelled because of certain activities (steam plays, etc.). Just wondering...I'm new to this whole game...

I don't know much about round robin parlays but say you took the top 3 teams today. Det Phillies and chicago for instance. Det and Phllies covered and chicago lost. How would that have looked if I had put 20 on a round robin parlay?


Well I was playing around with the round robin calculator, and I was trying to figure out what you did with the 4 top plays. So I put in 4 games, each one a 2x parlay at 4 dollars per parlay. Came up to 24 bucks with 6 parlays and it looked like some good numbers, I'm gonna give it a try the next time there are 4 qualified plays.

Hey Billdo in this when you say the 4 top selection parlay is up 55 units, are you betting 1 unit on each parlay or dividing one unit up into the 6 parlays, dumb question I know but I just want to make sure?

One more question Billdo when you did the top 5 plays were you only using plays with a +money runline or were you going into some of the -money runline plays to get 5 plays per day?

[mikeveli20]

Could someone go into a little bit more detail on these round robin parlays and how they work? I've never bet a parlay before and only have a slight idea of what it even means.

[billdo75]

Ok, round robin parlay school is in session We'll use Hybris's picks from his post earlier using the run lines from Sportsdatabase.com...

Team A - LAD+155 (L, 1-4)
Team B - PHI+145 (W, 7-0)
Team C - DET+110 (W, 4-2)
Team D - CHC-105 (L, 0-4)

With round robin parlays, you pair off every combination of teams into parlays, 2 teamers in this case. With 4 teams to pick from, the combinations would be A vs B, A vs C, A vs D, B vs C, B vs D, and C vs D for a total of 6 parlays. Per Hybris' note, you can also do an umbrella parlay for all the picks, and/or do 3 3-teamers (ABC, ABD, BCD)...whatever you're comfortable with. Using the results above, the net results for each play would be:

AB - L, -1 unit
AC - L, -1 unit
AD - L, -1 unit
BC - W, +4.15 units
BD - L, -1 unit
CD - L, -1 unit
Overall parlay results: 1-5, -0.85 units

We play 1 unit on each parlay. Per this system and the lines from above, the Cubs were not a play. With that said, the round robin takes on a slightly different look:

AB - L, -1 unit
AC - L, -1 unit
BC - W, +4.15 units
Overall parlay results: 1-2, +2.15 units

What we're hoping for are days where the picks hit a high percentage. On a day when picks go 3-1, 4-1, 3-0 or anything like that, we're getting a NICE payoff on the parlays.

With that said, I hope I have more than one qualifying play today. I'll take the chase wins, but I want some big money...

[billdo75]

Hey Billdo in this when you say the 4 top selection parlay is up 55 units, are you betting 1 unit on each parlay or dividing one unit up into the 6 parlays, dumb question I know but I just want to make sure?

One more question Billdo when you did the top 5 plays were you only using plays with a +money runline or were you going into some of the -money runline plays to get 5 plays per day?

Based on how much I actually wager on the A plays of the chase, I place maybe half a unit on each of the parlays. Because I am still doing the chase, I don't want to hamper my ability to run deep into one if I have to...

All the plays were using +RL. When someone mentioned earlier in the thread about tracking the bigger favorites that don't get +RL, I decided to track them but they're for informational purposes only. This thread is all about the dog lines, my friend.

Could someone go into a little bit more detail on these round robin parlays and how they work? I've never bet a parlay before and only have a slight idea of what it even means.

Could someone go into a little bit more detail on these round robin parlays and how they work? I've never bet a parlay before and only have a slight idea of what it even means.

Since you've never bet a parlay before, you might not know how I'm getting the win amount on the winning parlay from my example above, so here's a quick crash course on that.

The formula for the parlay payout is:
Payout = Odds[1] * Odds[2] * Odds[3] ... - 1

You're calculating the total payout and that includes the 1 unit you wagered, so we have to remove that one unit from the calculated total. Now, the odds for each result are calculated as so:

For favorites (any - line), divide 100 by the line then add 1 to that result. -175 = 100/175 = 0.5715 + 1 = 1.5715

For dogs (any + line), divide the line by 100 then add 1 to that result. +145 = 145/100 = 1.45 + 1 = 2.4500

Using the formula above and the example lines in a parlay, we would have:
Payout = 1.5715 * 2.4500 - 1 = 2.8502

Hope that helps!

[billdo75]

Phillies win 7-0. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 14-14 W4, +1.76 units
B plays: 9-5 W1, +9.38 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.13 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 28-0, +27.99 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 15-15 W4, +1.93 units
B plays: 9-6 W1, +7.64 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.69 units
Chase record: 28-2, +18.26 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 17-11-4 W4, +7.34 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.72 units
Chase record: 28-0, +27.99 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 19-11-6 W4, +9.34 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
Chase record: 28-2, +18.27 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 70-71, +12.30 units, +10.51% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 70-49-22, +30.31 units, +25.90% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 11-15, -6.65 units, -21.25% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 11-12-3, -3.10 units, -9.90% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 8/6/2009:

A - Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +120 (-185 ML / 1st), 0.83 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Chicago White Sox +125/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
New York Yankees -105/-170

Parlays:
1 - PHI/CHW

[lelicek]

PHI 3:1 FT -> again won !
thanks again !

[billdo75]

Phillies win 3-1. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 15-14 W5, +2.76 units
B plays: 9-5 W1, +9.38 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.13 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 29-0, +28.99 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 16-15 W5, +2.93 units
B plays: 9-6 W1, +7.64 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.69 units
Chase record: 29-2, +19.26 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 18-11-4 W5, +8.34 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.72 units
Chase record: 29-0, +28.99 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 20-11-6 W5, +10.34 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
Chase record: 29-2, +19.27 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 71-72, +12.50 units, +10.53% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 71-50-22, +30.51 units, +25.71% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 12-15, -5.65 units, -17.47% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 12-12-3, -2.10 units, -6.49% ROI

Parlays: 0-2, -1.00 units

[billdo75]

Play for 8/7/2009:

A - Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +145 (-160 ML / 5th), 0.69 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Seattle Mariners +165/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
San Francisco Giants -145/-300
St Louis Cardinals -145/-250
Chicago White Sox -115/-200
Toronto Blue Jays -105/-170

Parlays:
1 - PHI/SEA, 0.5 to win 2.75 units

[brandon m]

Well I placed the bet late last night when the blue jays were still + on the runline. Either way lost, and lost my toronto phillies parlay lol. Oh well onto tomorow.

[billdo75]

Phillies lose 2-3. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 15-15 L1, +2.07 units
B plays: 9-5 W1, +9.38 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.13 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 29-0, +28.30 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 16-16 L1, +2.24 units
B plays: 9-6 W1, +7.64 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.69 units
Chase record: 29-2, +18.57 units **Chasing**

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 18-12-4 L1, +7.65 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.72 units
Chase record: 29-0, +28.30 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 20-12-6 L1, +9.65 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
Chase record: 29-2, +18.58 units **Chasing**

All filtered plays at -1½: 71-74, +11.20 units, +9.34% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 71-51-23, +29.82 units, +24.86% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 13-18, -8.30 units, -22.16% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 13-15-3, -4.75 units, -12.68% ROI

Parlays: 0-3, -1.50 units

[billdo75]

Play for 8/8/2009:

B - Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +110 (-170 ML / 8th), 1.54 to win 1.69 units

Other qualifying games on record:
San Francisco Giants +150/-165
Los Angeles Angels +115/-158
San Diego Padres +135/-155
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +110/-143

Non-qualifying games on record:
Kansas City Royals -115/-220
Philadelphia Phillies -110/-215
St Louis Cardinals -125/-215
Arizona Diamondbacks -135/-205
Detroit Tigers -105/-201
New York Yankees -105/-180
Toronto Blue Jays -105/-175

Parlays:
26 - 10@2 teams, 10@3 teams, 5@4 teams, 1@5 teams using LAD/SFG/LAA/SDP/TBD, 5.2 to win 63.35 units overall

[Engine]

Think I'll give this a try..

Thanks billdo!

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

Nice parlay! GL!

[billdo75]

Dodgers lose 1-2. Went 4-22 on the parlays for a net +0.48 units. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 15-15 L1, +2.07 units
B plays: 9-6 L1, +7.84 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.13 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 29-0, +26.76 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 16-16 L1, +2.24 units
B plays: 9-7 L1, +6.10 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.69 units
Chase record: 29-2, +17.03 units **Chasing**

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 18-12-4 L1, +7.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.72 units
Chase record: 29-0, +26.76 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 20-12-6 L1, +9.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
Chase record: 29-2, +17.04 units **Chasing**

All filtered plays at -1½: 74-76, +12.42 units, +10.01% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 74-52-24 +31.91 units, +25.73% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 16-22, -9.85 units, -21.76% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 16-18-4, -5.25 units, -11.55% ROI

Parlays: 4-25, -1.02 units

[billdo75]

Play for 8/9/2009:

C - San Francisco Giants -1½ +110 (-185 ML / T-2nd), 2.94 to win 3.23 units

Other qualifying games on record:
St Louis Cardinals +110/-175
Chicago White Sox +135/-155

Non-qualifying games on record:
Toronto Blue Jays -120/-290
Los Angeles Angels -105/-185

Parlays:
4 - 3@2 teams, 1@3 teams using SFG/STL/CHW, 4.0 to win 20.64 units overall

[billdo75]

Giants lose 2-5. Went 0-4 on the parlays for a net -4.00 units. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 15-15 L1, +2.07 units
B plays: 9-6 L1, +7.84 units
C plays: 3-3 L3, +2.19 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 29-0, +23.82 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 16-16 L1, +2.24 units
B plays: 9-7 L1, +6.10 units
C plays: 4-3 L2, +5.75 units
Chase record: 29-3, +14.09 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 18-12-4 L1, +7.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.72 units
Chase record: 29-0, +23.82 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 20-12-6 L1, +9.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
Chase record: 29-3, +14.10 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 75-78, +11.77 units, +9.30% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 75-54-24 +31.26 units, +24.69% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 17-23, -9.90 units, -20.75% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 17-19-4, -5.30 units, -11.11% ROI

Parlays: 4-29, -5.02 units