Monday Plays 7/31
Royals -105
Tigers/Yankees Over 8 -108
__________________________
Royals -105
Tigers/Yankees Over 8 -108
__________________________
-
Comment -
Sorry picks were so late today, it was a wait and see kind of card after I missed the Yankees RL at plus money and then I fell asleep and almost didn't get them in.Comment -
I wish I had a play for the Giants game to make up for a probable 1-2 day, but I'm not gonna chase based on a lean on the Giants and the Over. Tomorrow's cards is looking good.Comment -
agreed on both thoughts. hey, i was wondering if you had the stats on blown games by each team's bullpen this year? if it isn't too much work would you mind pulling it up please? if so, i don't need anything crazy specific. just the teams run downs. blue jays have gotta WAY up there. it seems like very few teams are safe right nowComment -
Monday Results 7/31
L - Royals -105
L - Rays +137
W - Tigers/Yankees Over 8 -108
__________________________
Today = 1-2 = -1.05
___________________________
Bankroll = 2452 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break
ML = 28-27 for +4.16
(Dogs = 15-13)
(Favs = 13-14)
RL = 12-6 for +6.27
O/U = 24-25 for -2.90
(Overs = 14-8)
(Unders = 10-17)
Total = 64-58-6 +7.53
__________________________
Recent Results
31st = 1-2 for -1.05
30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
________________________________________ ___________Comment -
Tuesday Plays 8/1
»-Cardinals +112
»-Phillies +102
»-Athletics -106
»-Cardinals/Brewers Over 8 -113
»-Phillies/Angels Under 8 -103
»-Twins/Padres Over 8 -108
__________________________Comment -
SDQL 8/1
ALL = Yesterday 1-4 (Total 74-74)
SU = Yesterday 0-4 (Total 47-34)
OU = Yesterday 1-0 (Total 27-40)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Cubs (105-41 +24.1% ROI)
H and 4.8>=tA(runs)>=4.3 and 5.2>=(o:STDSERA)>=4.2 and o:conference=NL and 4.2>=(STDSERA)>=3.7 and conference=NL and 2007<=season and SG<4
PLAY: The Cubs are 14-1 SU in the first game of a series off a game as a favorite when they won the last two games their starter started and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Cubs and FGS and p:F and s:W and ss:W and AASB and date >= 20140829
PLAY: The Red Sox (54-27 +22.1% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
PLAY: The Rangers and Yankees (1010-607 +11.6% ROI)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
PLAY: The Rockies are 17-1 SU since June 28th, 2013 as a favorite after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.
team = Rockies and F and p:TLOB < 5 and p:L and date >= 20130628
FADE: The Mets (432-567 (-12.4% ROI)
p:margin=-8
PLAY: The Rays (143-113 +10.5% ROI)
STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3
PLAY: The Astros (542-378 +10.0% ROI)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)
PLAY: The Orioles are 14-0 SU as a favorite after playing as a home dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starters last start.
team = Orioles and F and p:H and p
and s:W and so:BL > 0 and date >= 20090411
FADE: The White Sox are 2-27 SU as a 155+ dog after a game in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.
team = White Sox and line>155 and po:LOB < 10 and season >= 2011
-----------
OU
UNDER: The Athletics are 0-11 OU in not the first game of a series when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em off a home game in which they allowed one or fewer walks and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Athletics and SG > 1 and -120 <= line <= 120 and p:H and po:walks <= 1 and AASB and date >= 20120720
UNDER: Rays/Astros (166-83-7 +26.5% ROI)
STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3
OVER: Both teams off rest this season. (66-41-7 +16.8%)
(Cardinals/Brewers, D-Backs/Cubs, Twins/Padres, Reds/Pirates, Mets/Rockies)
H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017
________________
SU
Cubs
Red Sox
Rangers
Yankees
Rockies
Orioles
Blue Jays
OU
Giants/Athletics Under
Rays/Astros Under
Cardinals/Brewers Over
D-Backs/Cubs Over
Twins/Padres Over
Reds/Pirates Over
Mets/Rockies Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...______________Comment -
Added
»-Rays -106
»-Mets -1.5 +170Comment -
Tuesday Results 8/1
2-7-1= -5.27
___________________________
Bankroll = 2189 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break
ML = 29-30 for +2.10
(Dogs = 15-15)
(Favs = 14-15)
RL = 13-7 for +6.27
O/U = 24-28 for -6.11
(Overs = 14-10)
(Unders = 10-18)
Total = 66-65-7 +2.26
__________________________
Recent Results
1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
31st = 1-2 for -1.053
0th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
________________________________________ ___________
Took a beat down last night, things went south late.Comment -
Wednesday Plays 8/2
»-Rangers +100
»-Reds/Pirates Under 9.5 -108
__________________________Comment -
SDQL 8/2
ALL = Yesterday 7-7(Total 81-81)
SU = Yesterday 5-2(Total 52-36)
OU = Yesterday 2-5(Total 29-45)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Astros are 24-0 SU as a favorite of more than 180 after they hit multiple home runs and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Astros and line<-180 and p:HR > 1 and AASB and date >= 20040901
FADE: The Diamondbacks are 0-21 SU as a 140-plus dog when seeking immediate revenge for a road loss in which they never led.
team = Diamondbacks and SG > 1 and line>=140 and p:AL and p:BL = 0 and date >= 20130822
PLAY: The Reds (38-36 +22.9% ROI)
AD and line>130 and line<150 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10
FADE: The Pirates (432-568 -12.5% ROI)
p:margin=-8
PLAY: The Athletics (272-253 +19.6% ROI)
AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2
PLAY: The Rangers (1010-609 +11.5% ROI)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
PLAY: The Angels are 20-2 SU since September 25th, 2013 as a favorite after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base and it is not the first game of a series.
team=Angels and F and p:LOB<10 and p:W and SG>1 and date>=20130925
PLAY: The Nationals are 33-4 SU since May 7th, 2014 as a favorite in the last game of a series when they came back from a deficit to win in their starters last start.
team = Nationals and F and s:W and so:BL > 0 and LGS and date >= 20140507
PLAY: The Royals are 18-0 RL in the last game of a series when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em off a loss as a dog in which they never led and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Royals and LGS and -120 <= line <= 120 and p and p:BL = 0 and p:L and AASB and date >= 20080727
PLAY: The Twins are 15-0 RL off a road game in which they had six or fewer hits and it is after the All-Star break and not a series opener.
team = Twins and SG > 1 and p:A and p:hits <= 6 and AASB and date >= 20150909
-----------
OU
UNDER: Reds/Pirates (463-232-37 +25.6% ROI)
season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)
UNDER: Royals/Orioles (53-34-2 +16.6% ROI)
team = Orioles and H and date >= 20160709
OVER: The Nationals are 22-6 OU since April 14th 2015 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after allowing 6+ runs on the road.
team = Nationals and -120 <= line <= 120 and 6 <= po:runs and p:A and date >= 20150414
OVER: The Nationals are 14-1-1 OU as a favorite after playing as a road favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead since Apr 25, 2015
team=Nationals and F and p:A and p:LF and p:BL > 0 and date>=20150425
________________
SU
Astros
Cubs
Reds
Athletics
Rangers
Angels
Nationals
OU
Reds/Pirates Under
Royals/Orioles Under
Nationals/Marlins Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
Teams that were trailing by one or more after 6 inning and came back and won.
Astros = 11x
Red Sox = 10x
Giants = 9x
Mariners = 9x
Royals = 9x
Rangers = 8x
Yankees = 8x
Cubs = 8xComment -
Added the Red Sox.
More Trends
Orioles won last 5 vs LHP, by a margin of 20.
Royals 9-0 Under when Vargas starts vs the Orioles.
Pirates 1-8 L9 vs Cincy, 0-7 L7 at Home
Tigers 8-1 L9 day games.
White Sox lost last 8 vs LHP.
Home Teams 22-8 last two Wednesdays, Over 20-10.
Home Teams on Wednesdays +7.4% ROI for the season.
Home teams avoiding sweep 62-40, 12-2 L14. (Rangers)
Home Favs trying to complete the 3 game sweep are 13-1 L14 (Red Sox, Orioles)Comment -
Can't believe the o's line went up more, I grabbed kc at +120 thinking I got pretty good odds, lol..Comment -
LOL IKR, The Royals were my first choice on today's card, especially if they were slight favs and I almost played them at -105 thinking they would be favs by close, but that move was ridiculous. I really wanted to play the Under too, just seemed too high though.Comment -
Looking like line was justified. Freaking royals starting one of their wrong direction streaks. LolComment -
Wednesday Results 8/2
»-Rangers +100
»-Red Sox -1 +118
»-Reds/Pirates Under 9.5 -108
»-PARLAY: Orioles -142/Angels -210 +152
__________________________
Today = 3-0= +3.52
___________________________
Bankroll = 2365 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break
ML = 30-30 for +3.10
(Dogs = 16-15)
(Favs = 14-15)
RL = 13-7 for +6.27
O/U = 25-28 for -5.11
(Overs = 14-10)
(Unders = 11-18)
Parlays = 1-0 for +1.52
Total = 69-65-7 +5.78
__________________________
Recent Results
2nd = 3-0 for +3.52
1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
31st = 1-2 for -1.05
30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
________________________________________ ___________Comment -
SDQL 8/3
ALL = Yesterday 6-4(Total 87-85)
SU = Yesterday 4-3(Total 56-39)
OU = Yesterday 2-1(Total 31-46)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Dodgers are 31-0 SU in the last game of a series as a 200+ favorite after a game in which they scored first.
team = Dodgers and LGS and line<=-200 and p:SF>0 and date >= 20040930
PLAY: The Dodgers are 40-5 SU as a 135+ favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits.
team = Dodgers and line<=-135 and p:hits <= 6 and p:L and SG > 1 and date >= 20140720
FADE: The White Sox are 0-20 SU as a road 130-plus dog off a home game when playing a team that has a better record and it is after the All-Star break.
team = White Sox and A and line>=130 and p:H and WP < o:WP and AASB and date >= 20070731
PLAY: The Phillies (273-253 +19.8% ROI)
AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2
PLAY: The Angels (542-379 +10.0% ROI)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)
PLAY: The Orioles (54-27 +22.1% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
-----------
OU
UNDER: Reds/Pirates (464-232-37 +25.7% ROI)
season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)
OVER: The Yankees are 11-0 OU in the first game of a series after a game as a home favorite in which they were shut out over the first 6 innings.
team = Yankees and FGS and p:H and p:F and p:S6 = 0 and date >= 20130603
________________
SU
Dodgers
Red Sox
Orioles
OU
Reds/Pirates Under
Yankees/Indians Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.htmlComment -
I just wasted my whole morning debating politics with ignorant Democrats on facebook and I'm no Republican and rarely even get on facebook. It's just too damn easy. I need to get some work done.Comment -
I actually like the tribe/yanks under. Yanks bats have looked pretty bad when I've watched them lately, freaking flailing at everything. On other side I've always thought gray was a good big game pitcher and think his 1st start with his new team will qualify as a big game to him. Gray also w pretty good numbers vs tribe bats, Brantley only guy w more than 10 abs against him that has a ops better than .650.. kluber been amazing the last 2 months and coming off his worst start in that stretch so I'd expect a bounceback vs a team he dominated twice last season. 2 first rate pens backing up what I think a pitchers duel, that 8.5 felt high to me so I grabbed the under last night.Comment -
I had the Under singled out too last night, I don't pay much attention to those small SDQL trends, but one thing I look at it the combined ERA, just to see what the majority of people prolly look at and it if's two or more over or under the total, I lean the opposite, especially if the public is all over it. Not sure the public is on the Under or not, haven't paid attention to line movement for totals this morning. I did play the Indians though.Comment -
Thursday Plays 8/3
»-Pirates -1 -115
»-Indians -1 -110
__________________________
Been leaning a lot on sweep and streak angles with some success, so I'm sticking with it today.
__________________________
Orioles won last 6 vs LHP, by a margin of 26.
Home Favs on 5 game win streaks are 7-0 L7. (Orioles)
Pirates 1-9 L10 vs Cincy, 0-8 L8 at Home
Home teams avoiding sweep 63-40, 13-2 L15. (Pirates)
Indians 9-0 L9 when on a 3 game losing streak as a Home Fav.
Cardinals 1-9 L10 on the Road in the last game of a series.
HD and WP>50 and o:WP<50 and season=2017 2-12 L14 (Brewers)Comment -
Thursday Results 8/3
W - »-Pirates -1 -115
W - »-Indians -1 -110
__________________________
Today = 2-0= +2.00
___________________________
Bankroll = 2465 / 3000
___________________________
Since All Star Break
ML = 30-30 for +3.10
(Dogs = 16-15)
(Favs = 14-15)
RL = 15-7 for +8.27
O/U = 25-28 for -5.11
(Overs = 14-10)
(Unders = 11-18)
Parlays = 1-0 for +1.52
Total = 71-65-7 +7.78
__________________________
Recent Results
3rd = 2-0 for +2.00
2nd = 3-0 for +3.52
1st = 2-7-1 for -5.27
31st = 1-2 for -1.05
30th = 6-4-2 for +2.08
29th = 2-3 for -1.19
28th = 9-4 for +5.59
27th = 3-3 for -0.09
26th = 5-2-1 for +3.28
25th = 5-6-1 for -1.15
24th = 4-2 for +2.28
23th = 2-1 for +1.17
________________________________________ ___________Comment -
SDQL 8/4
ALL = Yesterday 3-2(Total 90-87)
SU = Yesterday 2-1(Total 58-40)
OU = Yesterday 1-1(Total 32-47)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Braves and Cubs (106-41 +24.4% ROI)
H and 4.8>=tA(runs)>=4.3 and 5.2>=(o:STDSERA)>=4.2 and o:conference=NL and 4.2>=(STDSERA)>=3.7 and conference=NL and 2007<=season and SG<4
PLAY: The Cubs are 20-1 SU in the first game of a series off a home game when their opponents starter has an ERA of higher than 3.55 on the season and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Cubs and FGS and p:H and o:STDSERA>3.55 and AASB and season >= 2014
PLAY: The Red Sox are 27-2 SU since Apr 25, 2013 as a 200+ favorite after they held a multiple-run lead last game.
team = Red Sox and line<=-200 and p:BL > 1 and date >= 20130425
PLAY: The Pirates are 15-2 SU as a favorite off a home shutout win.
team = Pirates and F and p:H and po:runs = 0 and date >= 20130521
FADE: The Yankees are 1-12 SU as a 125+ dog after they had five or fewer hits
team=Yankees and line>=125 and p:hits<=5 and date>=20130800
-----------
OU
UNDER: The Nationals are 0-12 OU as a road dog after they had six or fewer hits and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Nationals and AD and p:hits <= 6 and AASB and date >= 20130923
________________
SU
Braves
Cubs
Red Sox
Pirates
Indians
OU
Nationals/Cubs Under
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
________________________
Twins 1-9 L9 vs a LH starter. outscored 57-26
Pirates 7-3 L10 at Home vs a LH starter.
White Sox lost last 9 vs a LH starter.
Teams on at least 3 str8 Unders are 0-8 L8, 6-1-1 Under.(Braves, Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Royals, Twins.)Comment -
Friday Plays 8/4
»-Braves +106
»-Rangers -111
__________________________
Taking the Indians, Cubs, and Mariners -1, just waiting for 5 Dimes to release -1 prices, they are usually better.Comment -
Twins 1-9 L9 vs a LH starter. outscored 57-26
But I'm not just going by that, it always a combination of many things.
First and foremost for me is the match-up itself and pitching. Colon has had success vs the Rangers but it's been awhile and he had been a mess, his team is 0-7 his last 7 starts. Perez is no ace, but the Twins have struggled vs lefties lately. The Rangers bullpen isn't good, but it's still better than the Twins.
Then I run my model to get an idea of what the line should be, but after the break, I usually go against where it says the value is, especially anything over -20. Negative value since the break has gone 105-61, the higher the better. Positive value is 57-55. I set it all up with the team in order by pitching advantage according to my ratings and made a system out of it.
Then I run through my collection of SDQL to see if there are any hits for the day as soon as the database updates.
Then I select out what teams stand out according to the data and then I go through them individually and look at recent pitcher history and pitcher history against opponent and team's recent performance against certain spots, all with SDQL.
Then I consider what is becoming more important as the season goes along, motivation. I thought the Twins were ready to put up a fight when they singed Garcia and then after one good start for them, they give him to the Yankees. It seemed like their latest losing skid put a huge damper on their confidence. The Rangers don't fair much better, but at least they've won a couple in a row and still have plenty of time to go on one of their streaks if they can get hot and contend for a wild card spot.
And I try to put it altogether to come up with the best choices, but it's an ongoing process of refinement and learning.Comment
