New Baseball Power Rating System

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • mantorras77
    SBR Sharp
    • 05-08-09
    • 378

    #281
    Originally posted by Formulawiz
    I am not sure how you got 2 losers last night using the PT system as I explained it just yesterday. My record last night was 5-1 and + 3.9 units. There were 8 plays and 2 games dropped out.

    Since 5/15 - W/L 59-27 =68.6% and 30.58 Units.
    WIZ, what were your 8 plays yesterday...I just want to make sure i'm doing it right cause right now i'm only coming up with 6 without dropping any games.
    Comment
    • rogerc
      SBR Rookie
      • 05-26-09
      • 20

      #282
      Wow lot of potential plays today.
      I got the following Using 30 days
      11 Regular Play picks
      3 Best Bet Pick
      9 PT Picks
      3 Picks that are both PT and BB
      Is everybody else getting the same?
      Roger
      Comment
      • mantorras77
        SBR Sharp
        • 05-08-09
        • 378

        #283
        Originally posted by rogerc
        Wow lot of potential plays today.
        I got the following Using 30 days
        11 Regular Play picks
        3 Best Bet Pick
        9 PT Picks
        3 Picks that are both PT and BB
        Is everybody else getting the same?
        Roger
        yes sir! action on every American league game today!
        Comment
        • Formulawiz
          Restricted User
          • 01-12-09
          • 1589

          #284
          Originally posted by mantorras77
          WIZ, what were your 8 plays yesterday...I just want to make sure i'm doing it right cause right now i'm only coming up with 6 without dropping any games.
          I'll only do this one time. NYM-Drop, ATL, BAL-64.5% close enough, TOR, TB, TEX, KC, LAA-drop.
          5-1.
          Comment
          • Formulawiz
            Restricted User
            • 01-12-09
            • 1589

            #285
            Originally posted by rogerc
            Wow lot of potential plays today.
            I got the following Using 30 days
            11 Regular Play picks
            3 Best Bet Pick
            9 PT Picks
            3 Picks that are both PT and BB
            Is everybody else getting the same?
            Roger
            Only 9 PT plays today and be careful of teams that are over a 3 game winning streak or 3 game losing streak since they are bound to reverse.
            Comment
            • peterpan19
              Restricted User
              • 11-02-08
              • 3377

              #286
              Originally posted by Formulawiz
              I'll only do this one time. NYM-Drop, ATL, BAL-64.5% close enough, TOR, TB, TEX, KC, LAA-drop.
              5-1.
              ATL was a no play since it was not over .500...exactly .500...but if you count Bal too ?, one time it will hit another time maybe not ?...and we had two plays on TX...early and late game....and NYM line closed at -180...so it was a drop for me...so I have them at 4-1...anyway nice day...

              PR plays to be posted later
              Comment
              • peterpan19
                Restricted User
                • 11-02-08
                • 3377

                #287
                PR yesterday went 4-2 +2.4 Units

                early play: BOS

                GL
                Comment
                • Formulawiz
                  Restricted User
                  • 01-12-09
                  • 1589

                  #288
                  Originally posted by peterpan19
                  ATL was a no play since it was not over .500...exactly .500...but if you count Bal too ?, one time it will hit another time maybe not ?...and we had two plays on TX...early and late game....and NYM line closed at -180...so it was a drop for me...so I have them at 4-1...anyway nice day...

                  PR plays to be posted later
                  ATL was definitely a play. It was at +.500 and the other team was below it and it was above 65%. The team can be at .500 as long as the other team is under .500.
                  Comment
                  • peterpan19
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-02-08
                    • 3377

                    #289
                    rest of today:
                    PR: BAL, CLE, HOU, OAK, COL, SF, KC
                    run: CIN, WAS, SD
                    Comment
                    • peterpan19
                      Restricted User
                      • 11-02-08
                      • 3377

                      #290
                      formulawiz

                      but it says +.500 ...so for me + means >.500 and not >= .500 ??
                      Comment
                      • peterpan19
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-02-08
                        • 3377

                        #291
                        early best bet not looking good so far and also PT not...but we still have some bb left...so lets hope it gets better
                        Comment
                        • Bobby518
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 01-24-09
                          • 84

                          #292
                          Originally posted by peterpan19
                          early best bet not looking good so far and also PT not...but we still have some bb left...so lets hope it gets better

                          It did!
                          Comment
                          • Formulawiz
                            Restricted User
                            • 01-12-09
                            • 1589

                            #293
                            Originally posted by peterpan19
                            formulawiz

                            but it says +.500 ...so for me + means >.500 and not >= .500 ??
                            Pete even though its exactly at .500 I feel as long as the opposing team is < .500 its OK. Ill keep doing it this way until I see there is a problem. So far you dont run into many of these situations
                            Comment
                            • Formulawiz
                              Restricted User
                              • 01-12-09
                              • 1589

                              #294
                              Originally posted by peterpan19
                              early best bet not looking good so far and also PT not...but we still have some bb left...so lets hope it gets better
                              In addition to the software generating plays we still have the responsibility to handicap each game the software picks. Of course for the win/loss records these games count whether you personally use the plays or not. Let me give an ex: I have posted several times you need to watch out for teams that are on a 4 game or more W/L stretch because they have a very good chance of reversing. I call this the danger zone for or against that particular team. Look at the NYM today. 4 game winning streak. Even though I did not play them it still counts for the PT system w/l record as a loss today. The reason I stayed away from this game is that they are on a 4 game winning streak, danger zone. They were facing a good opposing pitcher and had a piece of shit pitcher going. Not only this but they were a + 120 dog and the bookies were begging you take them. BAL is another good ex: on a 5 game winning streak and a dog, very dangerous and stayed away. Of course what ever happens it will go into the wi/loss record and I hope these games win. So the point I am getting at is we all need to do some homework before pulling the handle. Each game has different characteristics where I might take a team with a 4 game winning streak and stay away from another team with a 4 game winning streak. I hope this makes some sense.
                              Comment
                              • peterpan19
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-02-08
                                • 3377

                                #295
                                formula
                                yeah I dont feel comfortable going against Verlander today... I never would have played BAL anyway so I feel not good about it...I personally will play DET 1H so even the players who play all PT have a chance to cash...I also will not play NYY, as it is already over -175 (was that s unexoeted today ?)

                                GL tonight
                                Comment
                                • Formulawiz
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 01-12-09
                                  • 1589

                                  #296
                                  Originally posted by peterpan19
                                  formula
                                  yeah I dont feel comfortable going against Verlander today... I never would have played BAL anyway so I feel not good about it...I personally will play DET 1H so even the players who play all PT have a chance to cash...I also will not play NYY, as it is already over -175 (was that s unexoeted today ?)

                                  GL tonight

                                  NYY are fine they ranged between -167 to -175 and I played them since they are on a 2 game winning streak Sabathia pitching against Carmona who sucks..
                                  Comment
                                  • jmathes
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-19-09
                                    • 2385

                                    #297
                                    formula,

                                    if you don't mind me asking what software/program does sportrends use?
                                    Comment
                                    • Formulawiz
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-12-09
                                      • 1589

                                      #298
                                      Originally posted by jmathes
                                      formula,

                                      if you don't mind me asking what software/program does sportrends use?

                                      I have no idea what they use to handicap and you would have to ask them
                                      Comment
                                      • Formulawiz
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 01-12-09
                                        • 1589

                                        #299
                                        BB System kicked ass last night 3-0, + 3 Units
                                        BB System YTD 23-9, 72%, + 11.85 Units
                                        PT System Off last night 4-5, -1.42 Units
                                        PT Systeme YTD 63-32, 66.3%, + 29.15 Units
                                        Some way to lose the LAA game in top of 9th.

                                        Today there are 2 BB plays and 9 PT plays where 3 games will probably drop due to high line. I also dont like 2 games where teams are on either a 2 or 3 game losing streak so will stay away.
                                        Comment
                                        • mantorras77
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 05-08-09
                                          • 378

                                          #300
                                          Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                          I'll only do this one time. NYM-Drop, ATL, BAL-64.5% close enough, TOR, TB, TEX, KC, LAA-drop.
                                          5-1.
                                          I'm sorry I asked. I thought we were all here to help each other out.
                                          Comment
                                          • CashMoney
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-07-08
                                            • 1982

                                            #301
                                            Originally posted by mantorras77
                                            I'm sorry I asked. I thought we were all here to help each other out.
                                            Just send a PM. It's not fair to sportrends if we all start posting the plays.
                                            Comment
                                            • mantorras77
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 05-08-09
                                              • 378

                                              #302
                                              Originally posted by CashMoney
                                              Just send a PM. It's not fair to sportrends if we all start posting the plays.
                                              you mean the plays that happened the day before???? I see no big deal in that at all and if it's a big deal to WIZ about posting plays that happened the day before then he should have PM'd them to me.
                                              Comment
                                              • Formulawiz
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 01-12-09
                                                • 1589

                                                #303
                                                Originally posted by mantorras77
                                                I'm sorry I asked. I thought we were all here to help each other out.

                                                That was dumb of me I should not have posted the plays yesterday.
                                                Comment
                                                • rogerc
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 05-26-09
                                                  • 20

                                                  #304
                                                  [QUOTE=Formulawiz;1897008]BB System kicked ass last night 3-0, + 3 Units
                                                  BB System YTD 23-9, 72%, + 11.85 Units
                                                  PT System Off last night 4-5, -1.42 Units
                                                  PT Systeme YTD 63-32, 66.3%, + 29.15 Units
                                                  Some way to lose the LAA game in top of 9th.

                                                  Good weekend so far but a lot of work to do with 9 PT to review for Sun.
                                                  Really like the Best Best so far... They Kick Ass.

                                                  Roger
                                                  Comment
                                                  • peterpan19
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-02-08
                                                    • 3377

                                                    #305
                                                    yesterday PR went 1-6 -5.1 units....run went 0-3 -3.0 units
                                                    YTD (PR): 29-43 -8.55
                                                    YTD (run): 6-8 -0.3

                                                    today PR: BOS, PHI, HOU; CIN, CWS, SF
                                                    run: FLA, WAS

                                                    GL
                                                    Comment
                                                    • peterpan19
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-02-08
                                                      • 3377

                                                      #306
                                                      looks like we wont win 4 best bets in a row...lets hope the later one hits....
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Bobby518
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 01-24-09
                                                        • 84

                                                        #307
                                                        Lousy day so far.

                                                        Glad the Scotch is holding out . . . .
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Nick6570
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 04-15-09
                                                          • 163

                                                          #308
                                                          I always feel a little sketchy betting on teams who have the chance to sweep. I always feel like the other team will pull something out of their A**. I think im gonna start keeping for detailed records like Win-Loss, W/L Streek, Home/Away stuff like that just to see if those really play a difference
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Nick6570
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 04-15-09
                                                            • 163

                                                            #309
                                                            also the PT has done a pretty crappy job on picking the underdogs, i might have had some different pick then some of yall but im showing over the last 5 days the PT is 2-11 in picking the underdogs, Hopefully this is just a flaw
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Formulawiz
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 01-12-09
                                                              • 1589

                                                              #310
                                                              Originally posted by Nick6570
                                                              I always feel a little sketchy betting on teams who have the chance to sweep. I always feel like the other team will pull something out of their A**. I think im gonna start keeping for detailed records like Win-Loss, W/L Streek, Home/Away stuff like that just to see if those really play a difference
                                                              Nick you are 100% correct. I have found never to wager on teams that are going for a sweep. You will lose substantially more games then you will win. Take the 5 teams going for sweeps today, they went 1-5. Anyway the loses will be counted for the BB system which went 0-2 and the PT system went 1-5.
                                                              The PR system looks like it will have a good day.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Formulawiz
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 1589

                                                                #311
                                                                Originally posted by Nick6570
                                                                also the PT has done a pretty crappy job on picking the underdogs, i might have had some different pick then some of yall but im showing over the last 5 days the PT is 2-11 in picking the underdogs, Hopefully this is just a flaw

                                                                I believe the PT system predominantly picks FAV
                                                                Comment
                                                                • peterpan19
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 11-02-08
                                                                  • 3377

                                                                  #312
                                                                  and sportstrends says
                                                                  2 <> Watch for home teams that win the first 2 games of a 3 game series
                                                                  as they win the 3rd game most of the time.
                                                                  crap day today...but TX had a chance but blew it...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • jmathes
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-19-09
                                                                    • 2385

                                                                    #313
                                                                    guys i ordered the fastball system but am having a little trouble opening it up. when i try to update the stats from the website it ask what program do i want to open it with? could any of you guys help me out?

                                                                    also, what are your recommendations on what to play? i am hearing alot of mixed opions.

                                                                    thanks
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • rpbrownie
                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                      • 04-14-09
                                                                      • 64

                                                                      #314
                                                                      jmathes

                                                                      When you click on the pitching or team stats don't open the file just save it to the Fastball Folder on your cpu. It will then ask you to replace the old file and click yes. There is no need to opn these files and when you open the program it will already be populated.

                                                                      As for the recommendations I am new myself so hopefully the wiz or peter can help you out.

                                                                      BOL
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Formulawiz
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                                        • 1589

                                                                        #315
                                                                        Originally posted by jmathes
                                                                        guys i ordered the fastball system but am having a little trouble opening it up. when i try to update the stats from the website it ask what program do i want to open it with? could any of you guys help me out?

                                                                        also, what are your recommendations on what to play? i am hearing alot of mixed opions.

                                                                        thanks
                                                                        Its very simple. After putting your user ID and password in just save both files to the fastball folder. You have to direct your computer to save it in the fastball folder otherwise it will save the file somewhere else and it will not update the program. As the other person said you have to replace both these files daily by answering "yes" when prompted. It takes a few seconds to update. If you are having trouble I suggest you go to a computer store and ask someone to show you how to download the stats, its really very simple.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...