System Integrity?

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  • johncrud
    SBR MVP
    • 04-06-09
    • 1322

    #1261
    sh*t dog... I was so damn right. LAA will cover the RL easily. My chase is over for this RL system... time to hibernate and find the right spots to chase. I could of easily made a unit on this. The line was higher for CLE when I made my bet.. now when I checked, LAA line is higher. why didn't people pound LAA more earlier??

    chasing STL and Tex Over= money
    Comment
    • jellobiafra
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 03-08-09
      • 6291

      #1262
      Why aren't you guys going by the opening consensus listed on SBR live odds page?? ...all the way to the left on this page:

      Free Betting Odds and line movements in real time at Sportsbook Review. Check out Sportsbook Review's live odds comparison table, with lines and spreads for all major sports.



      I thought this was established like...weeks ago? LAA was the opening money line favorite today. LAA was the play.

      If you guys haven't been playing it by this standard the entire time then you don't even really know the record here or what letter bet you should actually be on today or tomorrow. I was in here a couple weeks ago and I thought this was understood and agreed upon. I'm just really confused over why there is still confusion over this....
      Comment
      • johncrud
        SBR MVP
        • 04-06-09
        • 1322

        #1263
        I use covers.com as my primary reference and go by the closing line. I make my bets 10 mins before game begins.. Closing line is permanently recorded on their site so when people look it up for any reasons, that will be the line showing.

        no big deal though, this is only my first game of the chase. learned a big ass lesson here.


        LAA up through now still haven't giving up a run.. this is what i called solid pitching unlike that shitty ass cle..
        Comment
        • jellobiafra
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-08-09
          • 6291

          #1264
          Well that's not the way the system is intended to be played. It is the opening money line favorite.

          I mean.... I don't know what else to say. I can't believe there's still back and forth over this. We had this figured out the first week. People want to go make their own rules or add their own twists to it and this is what you get..... Well you don't really know what you get. You don't get the system as it's meant to be played, I know that much. I'm not going to go back through the last 6 plays and see if they were made on the opening favorite or not, but I wouldn't be surprised if you guys have been fvcking this up all along.
          Comment
          • paw
            SBR Sharp
            • 05-03-09
            • 445

            #1265
            I agree Jello.............However I am guilty for some reason, yesterday I had caught the opening line at pinnacle and cleveland was the highest by far and for some reason SBR hadnt posted the lines and I went ahead and banged on the Indians for tonight.......I got it stuck in my ass and I deserve it.

            I have been yelling all along play the SBR Line. I didnt follow it and it cost me.

            However I am ok with it . I lost and will come right back with the Yankees and play thru it.

            When I make a mistake I will raise my hand and take the foul................LOL............

            That"s what I Get for picking on the college Kid last night....................HAHAAHA........ ........

            I think this is the 1st time this year it went to a game 6 ?????
            Comment
            • swede71
              SBR Rookie
              • 05-28-09
              • 26

              #1266
              I always go with the opening line odds at SBR..So the play for me was LAA
              Comment
              • corona
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 03-12-09
                • 722

                #1267
                Originally posted by jellobiafra
                Well that's not the way the system is intended to be played. It is the opening money line favorite.

                I mean.... I don't know what else to say. I can't believe there's still back and forth over this. We had this figured out the first week. People want to go make their own rules or add their own twists to it and this is what you get..... Well you don't really know what you get. You don't get the system as it's meant to be played, I know that much. I'm not going to go back through the last 6 plays and see if they were made on the opening favorite or not, but I wouldn't be surprised if you guys have been fvcking this up all along.
                was the backtracking all done through sbrlines?

                if not, it doesnt really matter...as long as each bettor keeps it consistent. it shouldn't matter that much. it's essentially a 50/50 bet that we're hoping doesnt lose 6 consecutive times.

                ive played covers.com all season, and cleveland opened higher today.
                Comment
                • floridagolfer
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-19-08
                  • 2757

                  #1268
                  For those who played Cleveland on Monday night, that's six straight losses and, by my count, if you're playing this to make a $10 profit per series, the total loss during this run is about $800. I don't care who you are: Ouch.

                  I've made a couple of personal adjustments to the way I play this. I take the day off when there are fewer than five games on the schedule (a pool of eight teams or less doesn't sit well with me) and I don't play any team that has a losing record. I know, I know, that's not the system; well, I'm willing to take responsibility for however this shakes out.
                  Comment
                  • johncrud
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-06-09
                    • 1322

                    #1269
                    yep 800-1000+ bucks down the drain for those bettors who started from the very first chase.. for my super martingale sh*t, yesterday would have been your first or second day of the chasing.

                    now it is time to find another guy's system who is on his final chase of the his system and apply my super martingale system on it.. hahah
                    Comment
                    • paw
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 05-03-09
                      • 445

                      #1270
                      Again with all due respect as it happend to me LAA was the play according to Opening SBR line. It wins on game 6 ????????

                      Here is how I LOOK at it. I have a 3 game home series with the yankees this week playing the weakest team in MLB IMHO. I will make it up with the yanks over the next few days. I just dont see this team coming close to the yankees even if they steal 1 game thats ok.

                      Good news is the chase played out to 6 games and even thu it technically didnt fail,lets say for a moment it did.Thats even better news, for now its really due to start hitting and getting some wins.

                      We shall see...............Like I always say, have back up monies to play thru drawn-down periods.

                      HAS Anybody been tracking this system for the season so far ????? As to how many times it has Won on Games 1 thru 6 ...............That would be nice to know.

                      Just to be 100 % Clear that the tracking has been done based on SBR Opening lines.
                      Comment
                      • floridagolfer
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-19-08
                        • 2757

                        #1271
                        Here are the number of games it's taken to get a series W since April 17, which is when I started.

                        2 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 2 1 2 1 4 2 1 1 1

                        As of today (Tuesday), you're either starting a new chase if you were on the Angels last night or playing Game 6 if you took the night off because of a shortage of available games (two). If you were on Cleveland last night, I assume you're starting a new chase, having exhausted the six games on which the original premise is based.
                        Comment
                        • paw
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 05-03-09
                          • 445

                          #1272
                          Thanks FG .......................I am starting a new chase tonight Got A** raped with Cleveland and should have played LAA.................

                          Once again System LOOKS SOLID...........................
                          Comment
                          • coreygman
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 01-18-09
                            • 325

                            #1273
                            Originally posted by jellobiafra
                            Why aren't you guys going by the opening consensus listed on SBR live odds page?? ...all the way to the left on this page:

                            Free Betting Odds and line movements in real time at Sportsbook Review. Check out Sportsbook Review's live odds comparison table, with lines and spreads for all major sports.



                            I thought this was established like...weeks ago? LAA was the opening money line favorite today. LAA was the play.

                            If you guys haven't been playing it by this standard the entire time then you don't even really know the record here or what letter bet you should actually be on today or tomorrow. I was in here a couple weeks ago and I thought this was understood and agreed upon. I'm just really confused over why there is still confusion over this....
                            We use Covers.com because when they did the backtesting that was the site they used.
                            Comment
                            • coreygman
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 01-18-09
                              • 325

                              #1274
                              Well I did not make a bet yesterday, so my 6 round bet is today on the Yanks.

                              And wowsers, its going to be a big line!


                              NYY C SABATHIA -L-400 -1½ -180
                              Comment
                              • floridagolfer
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-19-08
                                • 2757

                                #1275
                                For those on the Yankees, you may now disconnect the oxygen tank and continue to breath normally.
                                Comment
                                • paw
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 05-03-09
                                  • 445

                                  #1276
                                  HAHAHAHA..............That was Funny............
                                  Comment
                                  • corona
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 03-12-09
                                    • 722

                                    #1277
                                    how the heck can a pitcher with a 14.34 ERA be -210 and the biggest favorite for a day?

                                    ugh. i know the system says to bet it, but ill probably sit this one out.
                                    Comment
                                    • paw
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 05-03-09
                                      • 445

                                      #1278
                                      Thats an easy one............Its in New York. Playing a team that is in the bottom of the cellar and a team with a Hitting lin-up that score 8- 10 runs in a flash.

                                      Yanks beat them up again tommorow......................
                                      Comment
                                      • coreygman
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 01-18-09
                                        • 325

                                        #1279
                                        Deeeeeepppp Breath

                                        I hate close calls like that, but we are back in business! Thank you Yankees!
                                        Comment
                                        • coreygman
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 01-18-09
                                          • 325

                                          #1280
                                          Looks like we are on the Yanks again today. Boy they have Wang pitching, who has been sucking. Guess we will see...

                                          NYY C WANG -R -205 -1½ -120

                                          Risking 36 to win 30
                                          Comment
                                          • coreygman
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 01-18-09
                                            • 325

                                            #1281
                                            Originally posted by corona
                                            how the heck can a pitcher with a 14.34 ERA be -210 and the biggest favorite for a day?

                                            ugh. i know the system says to bet it, but ill probably sit this one out.

                                            no kidding man, wang is AWFUL
                                            Comment
                                            • corona
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 03-12-09
                                              • 722

                                              #1282
                                              yankees again tomorrow. gotta pay -160 for the rl
                                              Comment
                                              • floridagolfer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-19-08
                                                • 2757

                                                #1283
                                                With the way it's raining in New York (play has been suspended at the U.S. Open and the worst is yet to come), I guess there's a pretty good chance the Yankees will be rained out. In that event, it's Boston and Lester, correct?
                                                Comment
                                                • coreygman
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 01-18-09
                                                  • 325

                                                  #1284
                                                  Originally posted by floridagolfer
                                                  With the way it's raining in New York (play has been suspended at the U.S. Open and the worst is yet to come), I guess there's a pretty good chance the Yankees will be rained out. In that event, it's Boston and Lester, correct?

                                                  If the top game is rained out, then the correct play is no play that day.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • coreygman
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 01-18-09
                                                    • 325

                                                    #1285
                                                    Looks like the Yanks are the play again today


                                                    Covers listed them starting at -325

                                                    NYY CHAMBRLAIN -R -330 -1½ -165
                                                    Comment
                                                    • corona
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                      • 722

                                                      #1286
                                                      screw the yankees.

                                                      seriously?

                                                      about to have consecutive home losses to the nationals.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • paw
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 05-03-09
                                                        • 445

                                                        #1287
                                                        HAHAHAHAHA..............Tough beat for Us Corona, We will get em with the Rockies.........
                                                        Comment
                                                        • corona
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 03-12-09
                                                          • 722

                                                          #1288
                                                          i've been playing this as a labouchere as opposed to martingale, because of the history of hitting at 50%, the relatively even lines, and the history of losing 1-2 six game chases a year...but losing 15 of the last 20, and 27 of the last 39 games has me pretty weak $ wise now.

                                                          and i have game-by-game backtested it through the last handful of seasons, and there hasn't been a skid like this before. almost all months are within ~5 games of being .500 and are relatively consistent throughout. the record's 5-15-1 in june

                                                          frustrating.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • paw
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 05-03-09
                                                            • 445

                                                            #1289
                                                            I understand for sure. Look at it this way at least at the end of the day its still winning overall,with any chase system there are going to be short-term drawndowns and even weeks of feeling like you not getting ahead however in the end it will pan out. Not to mention they only true way to play it is smaller wagers so if it does go past 6 games you can still withstand the chase. I find it hard to beilive that this system over any amount of time has been past 8 to 9 games. I could be wrong however I just dont see it.

                                                            Even at 8 games with 80% + money are still fairly Ok...................Once again everything is based on Bankroll and Tolerance.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • johncrud
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-06-09
                                                              • 1322

                                                              #1290
                                                              corona-- how you wager with labouchere? I read the excerpt at wiki but still don't get it. lol
                                                              Comment
                                                              • paw
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 05-03-09
                                                                • 445

                                                                #1291
                                                                Friday 6/19/9 is wager # 3 on the Rockies - 1.5 + 116 at Pinnacle............................
                                                                Comment
                                                                • coreygman
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 01-18-09
                                                                  • 325

                                                                  #1292
                                                                  Looks like the Rockies today, started at -180 on covers.com.

                                                                  COL J MARQUIS -R -170 -1½ +115

                                                                  Risking 135 to win 155
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • coreygman
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 01-18-09
                                                                    • 325

                                                                    #1293
                                                                    Up 7-1 in the bot of 8th looking pretty good!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • corona
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                                      • 722

                                                                      #1294
                                                                      Originally posted by johncrud
                                                                      corona-- how you wager with labouchere? I read the excerpt at wiki but still don't get it. lol
                                                                      basically you create a line of units you'd like to win...say...

                                                                      1-1-1-1

                                                                      for every game, you take the outside two numbers, and bet that for the game. if you win the bet, you take those two numbers off the list. if you lose the bet, you add the two numbers to the end of the list (to recoup the losses)...

                                                                      example:

                                                                      1-1-1-1....bet 2 units, lose the game
                                                                      1-1-1-1-2.....bet 3 units, lose the game
                                                                      1-1-1-1-2-3.....bet 4 units, win the game
                                                                      0-1-1-1-2....bet 3 units, lose the game
                                                                      0-1-1-1-2-3....bet 4 units, win the game
                                                                      0-0-1-1-2.....bet 3 units, win the game
                                                                      0-0-0-1....bet 1 unit, lose the game
                                                                      0-0-0-1-1....bet 2 units, win the game
                                                                      0-0-0-0.....and +4 units overall

                                                                      so basically you just went 4-4, but ended up winning 4 units.

                                                                      the problem comes with extended losing trends....like we've had in june.

                                                                      you get in these situations where its...
                                                                      1-1-1-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11....and you've lost 54 units, and you're betting to try to win 12 units (which with the yankees vs. nationals takes ~18 units)

                                                                      and then you can cash all the way down to where its just
                                                                      0-0-0-0-0-0-4-5-0-0-0-0-0-0
                                                                      but if you lose a couple bets then, you have to raise every bet by 4 units.

                                                                      certainly pros and cons to the system.

                                                                      theoretically if you hit over ~40% over the long run you'll be profitable. but there will be times when you need a huge bankroll to gain the little amount you initially set out to win.

                                                                      right now i'm stressing over it. but i'm also just 4 consecutive wins away from being profitable on this series.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • corona
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 03-12-09
                                                                        • 722

                                                                        #1295
                                                                        looks like the cubs are the play for tomorrow against the indians. -180 at sbr

                                                                        sort of wish we kept playing the rockies. they've covered the runline in 11 of their last 15.
                                                                        Comment
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