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ATLANTA, GA - JULY 05: Paul Goldschmidt #46 of the St. Louis Cardinals runs to third against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Truist Park on July 5, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. Brett Davis/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Brett Davis / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Miles Mikolas could be the foil to the Atlanta Braves’ big bats as the St. Louis Cardinals seek their first win of the series. We break down Wednesday's meeting with our top Cardinals-Braves MLB picks.

The Cardinals have had a tough time in Atlanta. They lost the first two games of the series by a combined score of 13-4, but Wednesday night could be their big break. Mikolas will pitch opposite Max Fried, and there are many factors that could swing this matchup toward the underdogs.

Atlanta won four of its last five games, and St. Louis has lost five of six. This one seems pretty straightforward on paper, but I’m not so sure of that.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday’s game between the Cardinals and Braves (odds via BetMGM and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cardinals vs. Braves Game Info

Date: Wednesday, July 6, 9:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Weather: 88 degrees, partly cloudy, wind 6-mph out

Cardinals vs. Braves Odds

Cardinals vs. Braves Odds Analysis

The Cardinals were as long as +162 at the open, but they’ve been bet all the way down to at least +150 and even +145 at most books. DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting that just 21% of moneyline tickets are on the Cardinals, but a commanding 43% of the handle is on St. Louis.

The total is skewed toward the Under with 60% of tickets and 57% of the handle on a low-scoring game. Despite that, the total has moved from 8.5 runs to 9 almost across the board. You can get the Under 8.5 at plus money at BetMGM.

Cardinals vs. Braves Projected Pitchers

RHP Miles Mikolas (5-6, 2.61 ERA, 0.990 WHIP) vs. LHP Max Fried (8-2, 2.66 ERA, 1.026 WHIP)

Mikolas is absolutely rolling at the moment. In his last five starts, he’s pitched to a 1.83 ERA with just three homers and 18 hits against him across 34 1/3 innings. He’s been brilliant at pitching to contact all season long, and against a few strong offenses in the last month or so he’s done it particularly well.

Fried had a slight hiccup in the nation’s capital a little under a month ago, but ever since he’s been steady. He’s pitched to a 1.74 ERA over 20 2/3 innings across his last three starts. He’s been one of the best in baseball in the walk department all year with just 1.4 free passes per nine innings.

Cardinals vs. Braves Picks

  • Moneyline: Cardinals (+150 via BetMGM) ?????
  • Over/Under: Under 8.5 (+100 via BetMGM) ????
  • Prop bet: Paul Goldschmidt 2+ hits (+195 via PointsBet) ????

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Cardinals vs. Braves ML Pick

Cardinals (+150)

I love this matchup for the Cardinals. They’re second in baseball in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and while they haven’t been the best team at the plate in the last two weeks, they still sit above average judging by that very same metric.

On top of that, their strikeout rate against lefties is very low at 20.3% and their ISO sits at a seventh-ranked .174. Those are strong numbers to combat a strikeout-reliant Fried, who has had issues with gopher balls at times this year.

As for the Braves’ red-hot offense, well, we know them to be very power-reliant considering their .184 ISO over the last two weeks and their elite exit velocity numbers. Mikolas, a master at pitching to contact with a spicy 6.1 barrel rate, should get the job done for the road team.

Cardinals vs. Braves O/U Pick

Under 8.5 (+100)

I’m willing to be a little bold and take the even money on 8.5 runs instead of paying the juice on a higher line. I do have faith in the Cardinals offense, but considering a "bad" night for Fried would be around four runs, I do not like the prospects of both teams blowing the roof off.

I want to reiterate my faith in Mikolas, too. He allowed just three homers across five starts in June and has surrendered more than two runs in a start only once since the end of May. While the Braves have been smoking the ball, Mikolas will be their undoing based on his recent form.

Cardinals vs. Braves Prop Bet

Goldschmidt 2+ hits (+195)

Yeah, I’m gonna go big here. Over the last 13 games, Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .348 with four multi-hit games. Against lefties, he’s hitting a ridiculous .463 through 54 at-bats this season.

Yes, Goldschmidt has never gotten a hit off of Fried in seven at-bats, but Fried has been ever so more giving in the last five starts with a .248 batting average against him and this season has allowed a pretty poor .237 batting average to righties. This could definitely happen.

Where to Bet on Cardinals-Braves Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Cardinals-Braves picks made 7/6/2022 at 2:08 p.m. ET.