Sony Open Power Rankings: Odds, Picks Among Top Contenders

The PGA Tour heads to the famed Waialae Country Club in Honolulu for the second stop of the Hawaiian Swing. Our weekly power rankings highlight which golfers to target in pools based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Waialae Country Club has been hosting this event since 1965, and the Sony Open concludes the two-week Hawaiian Swing. Seventeen of the past 24 winners of the Sony Open teed it up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions the week prior, including nine of the past 11 victors. 

This year, there are just 19 golfers from the Sentry in the Sony Open field, including defending champion Hideki Matsuyama. Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Sungjae Im round out this week’s betting favorites.

Waialae CC is a par 70 course that features two scorable par 5s, and similar to last week’s Plantation Course at Kapalua, this sets up as a second-shot track. Matsuyama’s 2022 victory was aided by pacing the field in strokes gained: putting and going minus-7 on the par 5s.

With that in mind, I’m going to be placing more emphasis on putting statistics than usual this week. Other key metrics to lean on are SG: approach and scoring average.

Check out our Sony Open picks and predictions!

Sony Open Odds

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Sony Open Power Rankings

10. Corey Conners

This will be the Canadian’s fifth appearance at the Sony, and he’s had solid results with three consecutive top-12 showings, including a solo third in 2019. Conners is an elite ball striker and has made five consecutive cuts this season, which all led to top-25 finishes. Poor putting has always been his shortcoming. He’s never finished inside the top-100 in SG: putting as a pro, and his last win was all the way back in 2019 at the Valero Texas Open. 

9. Maverick McNealy

Ranking fourth in SG: putting and fifth in scoring average, McNealy is off to a tremendous start to the season. He’s played the weekend in six consecutive events – including the unofficial QBE Shootout – with top-20 finishes in all but one of them. He ranked 28th in SG: putting last year in his debut at the Sony and still finished T-27. I’m expecting his strong play to continue with improved work on the greens in his second visit to Waialae.

8. Billy Horschel

In this shallow field, Horschel checks out as one of the more reliable options for poolies. He’s played the weekend in nine of his past 10 events with seven top-30 finishes. I am especially encouraged by his recent ball-striking, as the Florida alum ranks third in SG: approach this season, and 17th in the field in true strokes gained approach across his past 31 measured rounds. I consider Horschel a high-floor, high-ceiling target at the Sony this week. Of note, he’s only finished inside the top-10 here once, with a solo seventh in 2021.

7. Sungjae Im

I’m hesitant to recommend Im as a priority pick for punters and poolies. His track record at the Sony is incredibly underwhelming with a 16th-place result during the 2019 event his best showing. He’s also fared worse each of the past three years, including missing the cut in 2022. Statistically, he should be an excellent fit with one of the best tee-to-green profiles on tour, but something might not fit his eye. I still think he’ll have a respectable tournament, but his odds are way too steep given his course history.

6. Hideki Matsuyama

The defending champion had a disappointing Sunday 72 to drop to a T-21 finish at the Sentry last week. His current form isn’t jumping off the page, either. Matsuyama ranks 110th in SG: approach and 136th in greens-in-regulation percentage across 14 measured rounds this season. Obviously, the eight-time tour winner can put it all together and contend any week, at any track, but I’m not expecting him to go back-to-back at Waialae.

Check out our look at the best odds for the 2023 Masters and the WM Phoenix Open odds.

5. Tom Hoge

There’s definitely some hit and miss to Hoge’s game, but the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner is in fine form following a sterling T-3 showing at the Sentry. Additionally, after ranking 11th in SG: approach last season, Hoge is pacing the tour entering the Sony. The hit-or-miss profile also checks out with his course history at Waialae. Hoge finished third in the 2018 event and 12th in 2020, but he’s also missed the cut in three of six trips, including each of the past two years.

4. Russell Henley

This will be the 11th trip around Waialea for Henley, and he’s bookended his run at the Sony with his two best finishes. He won the 2013 edition to earn his first career victory, and he lost in a playoff last January to post a solo-second finish. He also enters in solid form with a fall win at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, and the veteran ranks eighth in this field in true strokes gained approach and third in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past 30 measured rounds.

3. Taylor Montgomery

I've backed the PGA Tour rookie all fall, and Montgomery hasn’t disappointed. He played the weekend in all seven events and carded six top-25 finishes. Additionally, this is a solid course fit. Montgomery ranks 11th in SG: putting and 10th in scoring average. His shortcoming has been his approach game, but I’m expecting statistical correction to his 134th-ranked SG: approach and 150th-ranked greens-in-regulation percentage. Given how well he’s finished with poor iron play, even a modest improvement could go a long way for Montgomery. 

2. Tom Kim

The betting favorite has made the cut in 13 consecutive events while piling up two victories and another four top-10 finishes. There isn’t a flaw in Kim’s game, and he’s quickly proved he can contend in star-studded fields. The 20-year-old South Korean also heads to Waialea in high-end form after finishing T-5 at the Sentry last week.

1. Jordan Spieth

This will be just the fifth trip to Waialae for Spieth, and he missed the cut in his most recent stop in 2019. Still, a third-place result in 2017, and a respectable T-13 showing while gaining 0.514 strokes putting last week at the Sentry have me encouraged with Spieth’s potential this week. His last two wins have come in shallower fields, and he ranks 15th in this field in true strokes gained on approach through his past 26 measured rounds. Spieth ranked 155th in SG: putting last year after ranking 33rd in 2020-21, so I’m expecting him to continue regaining his confidence on the greens over the coming weeks.

Sony Open power rankings made 1/9/2023 at 3:45 p.m. ET.

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