EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-25-10, 04:02 PM

Think GGL is in much better form of late than Berrer.

**beefcake** · 10-25-10, 04:23 PM

Wonder if we should fade troicki..one rest day and a good juict dog price on Schuettler, who has a good serve and is not a push over ..

**beefcake** · 10-25-10, 04:23 PM

By the way at work all day..nice hits today!

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-25-10, 04:46 PM

Tough call on Troicki. As I said in the little preview for St.Petersburg, I don't see him winning back to back tourneys, but his draw is pretty easy. Not heavy travel involved here for him from Moscow to STP. Schuettler just isn't good on this surface if you look at his numbers. Unless Troicki doesn't want to be here, I think he'll find a way to win.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-25-10, 05:02 PM

Dmitry Tursunov tweets

Just realized that my current ranking suggests I'm a doubles specialist on a challenger circuit... I feel utterly confused...

Bit of good news - I received a WC into St. Petersburg main draw... Can I use alleys in singles as well?!

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-25-10, 09:17 PM

WTA DOHA

These are futures plays at Doha. Although she is the short favorite at +200, Wozniacki is the in-form player in WTA and is in a very winnable group with Demetieva, Stosur and Schiavone. Without having won a Grand Slam, this would be the next best thing for the unquestioned #1 in women's tennis right now. I'll be shocked if she doesn't advance out of her group which means you get +200 in a finals situation if she can make it. In the other group, it looks open with the experience of Clijsters along with the talent of Zvonareva and Azarenka. Jankovic is also here, but I don't rate her as any chance with how poor she is right now. Clijsters hasn't played since the US Open, so she will be rusty to start. Zvonareva gets a shot to start hot going up against an out-of-form Jankovic. Clijsters could certainly take this group if she gets it together quick, but for me, I am going to say it comes down to Azarenka or Zvonareva. Zvonareva owned her before losing to her twice early this year. Vera is much more confident now and has still played very well late this summer into the fall. Azarenka comes in hot after an indoor hard court win, but now has to adjust back to outdoor conditions. I'll take a shot at the testy Vera Zvonareva.

WOZNIACKI +200
ZVONAREVA +625

**beefcake** · 10-25-10, 09:19 PM

Yeah Jankovic is 30-1 for a reason..The way I pick WTA matches though, she will win the whole thing..

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-25-10, 09:29 PM

I'd be surprised if she won a match in the round robin play at all. If she goes 1-2, that is an upset.

I'm pretty excited that there are no Williams sisters this year. Makes for more guess work. Wozniacki is either going to justify here ranking here or WTA remains a huge joke when the #1 player doesn't make the final.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-25-10, 09:47 PM

PARLAY: ISTOMIN + TURSUNOV [-125]
Istomin draws Marchenko who he beat in three sets going away in Moscow last week. Istomin is still very inconsistent, but he should have some decent confidence built from last week. Marchenko still isn't great on this surface without a great weapon to use. If Istomin serves well, he wins. Tursunov draws the Pole, Przysiezny who comes into this tournament after retiring from his last match with a sprained ankle. Tursunov blew a lead in the 2nd set, up a set against Trocki last week in Moscow ... Tursunov will need to serve well here and look to exploit any weaknesses from the injury.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-25-10, 10:00 PM

[MONTPELIER] MANNARINO -135
The qualifier from France draws Lacko. Mannarino looks at home on this surface having won three straight in easy fashion here and he won the Mons Challenger on an indoor hard court in Belgium a few weeks back. Lacko comes in off an ankle injury last week and three losses in his last four on this surface. Mannarino's serve will tell you all you need to know when this match starts. If it's on, he'll have better consistency to me than Lacko.

**shari91** · 10-25-10, 10:24 PM

Haven't looked at anything closely yet but love Mannarino. Laid the chalk with him yesterday and didn't sweat for a second which is totally unlike me so I decided after that one that he was definitely the play against Lacko without even seeing the odds. Best of luck today!

**Shifty107** · 10-25-10, 10:50 PM

Any info on Serra guys. Is he coming back from injury or something. I want to take him against Jarko but can't understand why he is at +150.

**birdmanweezy** · 10-25-10, 11:16 PM

good luck EP

**beefcake** · 10-26-10, 06:38 AM

EP, was thinking about DOHA,,with the williams sisters out..and the field more even than ever,this is never a good idea, but playing all dogs might be profitable with the small round robin..

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 07:27 AM

Yeah I would just pick your spots in Doha and wouldn't see it from a match to match standpoint being worth laying heavy chalk on anyone really. Should track how the dogs fare here in the 1st couple days there, I bet they do fairly well as you said.

Istomin doing his usual inconsistent BS. Maybe he can turn the faucet on hot again.

**shari91** · 10-26-10, 07:38 AM

Istomin frightens me in every single match. He's almost approaching Chardy level for me - you never know which Denis will show up.

Nice to see Adrian off to a great start though. Hopefully he can keep it up and just hammer the hell out of Lacko.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 08:14 AM

Yeah I know what you mean on Istomin. Waste of money as he retires. Oh well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 08:31 AM

[VIENNA] ILHAN -145
Better form here for the Turk since September than his opponent Zemlja. Ilhan won Challengers on both clay and outdoor hard courts in September and made the main draws in two ATP events since then. Zemlja has won five straight on this indoor surface, but three were in qualis here and two others were in a home setting for Davis Cup style play.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 09:39 AM

Well Mannarino made that a lot harder than it needed to be, but at least he won.

**noober** · 10-26-10, 09:42 AM

With you on Ilhan.

Lets hope the young Uzbeki does it for us

**Tsonga** · 10-26-10, 09:47 AM

Any thoughts on Muster today ep?

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 10:01 AM

[SAO PAULO CHALLENGER] SILVA -135
Silva draws Delgado in Brazil today. Like Silva as Delgado retired last week with a knee issue. Delgado had his moment of glory in his home country of Paraguay again with a good run a couple weeks back, but otherwise has not been very good this year. Prior to making the final in Ascuncion, he had lost four of his last six on dirt. Silva was battling tendinitis a couple weeks ago, but looked okay last week in Santiago making the QFs, losing to eventual champion Fognini. Silva had made the final of his previous clay Challenger prior to the tendinits issue as well. He played this tournament last year and fell in the QFs. Delgado could potentially have recovered from whatever severity of knee issue he suffered about a week ago, but I think even when healthy that Silva has a solid shot to win. Possible rain today in Brazil. This match follows the completion of the Souza match for anyone following scores.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by Tsonga

Any thoughts on Muster today ep?

I'd love to take the ancient SOB against a guy who retired during qualis, but Muster has been flat out terrible since his return on his best surface [clay]. Best shot he might have is to make it through a set and hope Maurer retires due to injury.

**Tsonga** · 10-26-10, 10:13 AM

I agree...he's looking his age.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 10:50 AM

[VIENNA] MARTIN +255
This is a longshot, but putting Chela as a -300 favorite on this surface is ludicrous and on principle alone, I can see taking the Slovak qualifier. Martin was afforded a bit of an easy road through qualis with one opponent pulling out and one retiring mid-match. He did work hard however in his final quali to win in three sets. He showed a decent enough serve to think that he can at least value his own service games on this surface. He's pretty short on experience on this surface, but Chela hasn't played an indoor hard court match since 2007 ... so that might negate that. Chela in fact has been off since playing on the clay of Bucharest in September. In his career, Chela is under .500 on this surface in just a few dozen matches. Chela had a pretty average season and spent most of it on clay, so in spite of the gap in experience, the Slovak might have a shot here today. I think if he can find his serve early, he will give Chela a run.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 11:32 AM

Ilhan cracking hardcore. Guy totally lost his serve in the 2nd set and just got broke in the third. Putz.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 01:34 PM

[SAO PAULO CHALLENGER] CAPDEVILLE -165
The Chilean comes into this one in good form after making the final of the Santiago Challenger last week. Fatigue shouldn't be an overly large issue either as the majority of his matches last week were short and the final itself was under two hours [he lost]. His opponent, Zampieiri, has not played since pulling out of a tournament in early October with an arm injury. Zampieri has shown very little of late with losses in four of his last five matches on clay. Prior to last week, this match-up probably would have been close to a toss up, but if Capdeville can bring his Santiago momentum with him to Brazil ... he's the better shot today, I think.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 01:34 PM

Martin didn't put up much of a fight, lost 6-3, 6-3. Was hoping for better on that longshot, but oh well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-26-10, 03:09 PM

Silva & Capdeville both win in straights. Maybe I oughta stick to Challengers?

**Miaggi** · 10-26-10, 04:19 PM

HI guys, today was good day, as always, when reading this forum.. :-)

Didn´t see the odds yet, but early picks for tomorrow:
1) Parlay - Isner + Zvonareva odds between above 2 accepted
Isner was very good on retunt today against Paire, hammering every weak shot from opponent. Mannarino was very shaky on his serve, in 3rd, when he was leading *5-2, he served like a girl and let Lacko to have *5-4 few breakballs. Mannarino was not risking many winners, only waiting for opponent mistake.
Zvonareva made it today, as expected, tomorrow she goes against youngster Azarenka, which won Moscow in previous week. I saw the final game, and Azarenka offered 12Bp´s for Kirilenko. Kirilenko is small and with weak serve for TOP power tennis, but Zvonareva has the guns to made it in straight. Only one thing is not good H2H is 0-3 this year (one retirement)

2) Llodra - Montanes - odds above 1,8 on Montanes welcome
Llodra is choker these days, was break down when Rochus retire today. Montanes proofed, that indoor hard is his cup of tea too in match with Clement. If he will be good on return he has big chances. Montanes can win over big servers. H2H is 1-1 but not this year, so no big importance.

Sorry for my english, and GL, comments welcome.

**jojo85** · 10-27-10, 04:03 AM

both look like solid picks Miaggi!

**Miaggi** · 10-27-10, 04:24 AM

Originally posted by Miaggi

HI guys, today was good day, as always, when reading this forum.. :-)

Didn´t see the odds yet, but early picks for tomorrow:
1) Parlay - Isner + Zvonareva odds between above 2 accepted
Isner was very good on retunt today against Paire, hammering every weak shot from opponent. Mannarino was very shaky on his serve, in 3rd, when he was leading *5-2, he served like a girl and let Lacko to have *5-4 few breakballs. Mannarino was not risking many winners, only waiting for opponent mistake.
Zvonareva made it today, as expected, tomorrow she goes against youngster Azarenka, which won Moscow in previous week. I saw the final game, and Azarenka offered 12Bp´s for Kirilenko. Kirilenko is small and with weak serve for TOP power tennis, but Zvonareva has the guns to made it in straight. Only one thing is not good H2H is 0-3 this year (one retirement)

2) Llodra - Montanes - odds above 1,8 on Montanes welcome
Llodra is choker these days, was break down when Rochus retire today. Montanes proofed, that indoor hard is his cup of tea too in match with Clement. If he will be good on return he has big chances. Montanes can win over big servers. H2H is 1-1 but not this year, so no big importance.

Sorry for my english, and GL, comments welcome.

Montanes tomorrow, odds 2,4 in CZ, so great value for me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-27-10, 07:30 AM

[VIENNA] MAYER-PHAU OVER 22 [-112]
I'm a cynic with Mayer and I don't trust his injury prone ass to not find some magic ailment at some point with the heavy dose of tennis he's played the last couple weeks. He was certainly a surprise finalist in Stockholm last week, so he's holding some good form right now. Problem is you don't know if he'll hold it this week. Phau has been playing on this surface for three tournaments now on the lower level Challenger events. He's had mixed results and isn't really a big threat on this surface ... however, he does have that ability to spring an upset or at least make heavily favored opponents work hard to win. For me, Mayer's overall record on this surface indicates that he will have a tough time following up last week's success here in Vienna. Don't have the cahones to call Phau straight up, but I think he does enough to get this over.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-27-10, 08:31 AM

Sunnuva bitch. Phau rolling Mayer in the 1st. Shoulda had the stones perhaps.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-27-10, 08:38 AM

[MONTPELLIER] ZVEREV +175
F*ck Donkey-denko. If he steps up and finds an actual good performance, then I'll eat the loss. Nothing suggests he won't struggle here and Zverev is in pretty solid form right now with a good run through qualis here and a win over the Donkey in Shanghai last week.