EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-25-10, 01:53 PM

Going with the math again today that the books don't believe I can do. I've actually thought about it and the heat may actually work into Isner's favor. He played his match in the hottest portion of the day yesterday and survived. Fish has been playing when the temps have cooled somewhat. Will be challenging for both and that is why I think you may see this go the distance with both guys perfectly happy to play short points and go for big serves. Half a unit on each, just need it to go 3.

FISH IN 3 [+310]
ISNER IN 3 [+434]

**mighty maron** · 07-25-10, 03:23 PM

Isner looks drained...seeing him running up towards net for that passing shot all I could think is Oilcan

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-25-10, 03:54 PM

Guaranteed profit. Reminds me of yesterday's match except no tie breaker.

I know Benjamin Becker hasn't ever lived up to what he should be on hard surfaces, but it's going to be difficult for Fish to be fresh at the L.A. Open after this. Not sure if they will give him a break and leave him off till Tuesday, but something to consider this week.

**beefcake** · 07-25-10, 05:32 PM

Love those travel angles EP...Yeh becker can for sure give him a game regardless of the flight outta hartsfield..!

**CindyCryBaby** · 07-25-10, 05:48 PM

Zeballos is complete shit on hard courts after watching his match against Dent. Anyone like Schuettler for a big play? Also anyone on Tipsa - he played very well against K Anderson (even breaking him once in the match), while Giraldo hasn't played a match on hard courts since Miami way back in the year?

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-25-10, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

Love those travel angles EP...Yeh becker can for sure give him a game regardless of the flight outta hartsfield..!

By the way, big props on your Fish future.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-25-10, 06:33 PM

FUTURES

FARMER'S CLASSIC

QUERREY +400: I was a little surprised to see Querrey at this long a price considering his draw. He will be tested in his first match by either the tall, lanky Kevin Anderson or Marchenko. But, he is a superior talent. Then it's Zeballos, Ginepri & Schuettler to reach the QFs. Semis could be Baghdatis or Tipsarevic based on seeding. Querrey is 3-0 vs. Baggy. Also considering the top seed hasn't won this event since 2005, Querrey should feel fine about his #2 seed.

MALISSE +2500: A significant longshot here in the top of the draw, but I cannot see the point in taking Andy Murray at +110 who became a late wildcard entry for Djokovic here. Murray hasn't played in awhile and those odds suck for anyone who has to win four matches to cash that. Taking a shot on Malisse who has been in a good vein of form over the last couple of months and proved himself decent in Atlanta last week, losing to Roddick. This portion of the draw has Mardy Fish, Gulbis & Felciano Lopez as the seeds along with Murray. Three of those guys haven't played since Wimbledon and the other [Fish] faces a long trip across country + fatigue from playing a long match on Sunday. Malisse gets Sela first and then would face F.Lopez who has not had much hard court success during the U.S. Open series over the past two years. If Fish gets knocked out early, Malisse could conceivably get a shot at the semis here.

I think the top part of the draw is open for someone with big odds to make the final. Murray could turn it on and get there. Fish could keep going, but both seem longer shots to make the finals due to form/fatigue issues than their odds offer. Gulbis is another intriguing shot at odds in that portion at +1800.

SUISSE OPEN - GSTAAD

I am not sure if I will take anything here, but I do like Almagro with his draw in the bottom portion. At +275 though, it's kind of short, but he has little to worry about until the semis and Bellucci likely. Speaking of which, Bellucci might offer better odds at +700. The defending champ has the talent to work his draw, but does draw Chuidinelli in the opener, then Andreev. In the top half, Youzhny is the top seed but sports a poor track record here. Does have a good draw though. Robredo & Golubev are the toughest in his road to the semis. Gasquet or Montanes could give the best odds [+700] in this half. Montanes barely beat Riba in 3 sets here already, but that may have boosted his confidence after he crashed out early last week. Gasquet won this event in 2006 and is set up to meet Montanes in the QFs. I really think whomever wins that match may get to the finals. Youzhny is +500.

**JNic** · 07-25-10, 10:51 PM

i'm looking at gstaad and youzhny really should make the semis here, golubev will surely tank after his dream final and robredo really hasn't been dangerous all year. i watched him beat verdasco but that was an unforced error festival. montanes really is tough though, ignore montanes tight 3 setter because once he gets past the first round he always gets better and better.

also for your querrey future, doesn't querrey not have any more room for 250s in his ranking? so keep that in mind, marchenko/anderson are no pushovers for his 1st round and ginepri/schuettler are always trouble for him but if he gets past the quarters he's in the finals for sure...GL

**beefcake** · 07-25-10, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

By the way, big props on your Fish future.

I know it real stupid to bet futures before the draws are out..But Fish is 250-1 to win the US Open.He keeps playing like this hes going to get enough points to get a pretty good seed to in NY.A few breaks here and there and a decent draw and a semi-finals run would not be out of the question and by then would be an alot easier hedge cause of all the Positive mojo the books would be giving him by then.

**newjerseydevils** · 07-25-10, 11:24 PM

hey eagles you play at 5dimes right?.......when do they usually put up their tennis lines....right now they only have like 5 lines up

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 08:11 AM

BRANDS-LUCZAK UNDER 22.5 [-110]
Luczak got whipped on the Challenger level last week when he was oustered in Poland, 6-3, 6-2. Clay generally is not his best surface. Brands isn't spectacular, but I think has the serve crafted better to dirt. Feeling to me here is Brands has had more prep time after losing in Hamburg early whereas Luczak had to travel on the weekend. When Luczak loses on dirt, he generally gets whipped. We shall see. Weeks have started slow for me the last few, so tread lightly.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 08:22 AM

PARLAY: CHELA + MALISSE [+112]
Chela draws Ramirez-Hidalgo at the Umag event in Croatia. He is 3-1 lifetime against Hidalgo, all coming on clay. Hidalgo is not entirely useless on dirt, but most of his experience this year has come at the Challenger level. Chela has been tested by better players at the ATP level over the past few weeks. Look for him to work through here again. Malisse draws Sela to open in L.A. The Beglian looked pretty solid on the hard surface in Atlanta last week, losing in 3 to Roddick. Sela lost to Donald Young in Atlanta and looked horrible, losing 6-0 in the 2nd set. Malisse's weapons are better than Sela's, so if Malisse brings that thumping serve of his and gets it in play on the 1st serve - I think he gets by to round 2.

**lak420187** · 07-26-10, 08:40 AM

Nice writeup EP. Im gonna tail you on the parlay.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 09:10 AM

Futures prices changed this morning which is why I waited, so now booking the LA ones.

Querrey +500
Malisse +4000

**mighty maron** · 07-26-10, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

PARLAY: CHELA + MALISSE [+112]
Chela draws Ramirez-Hidalgo at the Umag event in Croatia. He is 3-1 lifetime against Hidalgo, all coming on clay. Hidalgo is not entirely useless on dirt, but most of his experience this year has come at the Challenger level. Chela has been tested by better players at the ATP level over the past few weeks. Look for him to work through here again. Malisse draws Sela to open in L.A. The Beglian looked pretty solid on the hard surface in Atlanta last week, losing in 3 to Roddick. Sela lost to Donald Young in Atlanta and looked horrible, losing 6-0 in the 2nd set. Malisse's weapons are better than Sela's, so if Malisse brings that thumping serve of his and gets it in play on the 1st serve - I think he gets by to round 2.

Dont mean to hijack your thread. I really like this write up. FOr this parlay whats the approx worst odds you would get on it and pull the trigger.

Thanks Maron

**rpdiddy** · 07-26-10, 10:03 AM

EP,

Any thoughts on Krajinovic +125 vs. C. Rochus? Italy Challenger at 2pm est.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 10:03 AM

I'd say anything +105 or better is still pretty good, closest to +110 or better would be optimal.

Brands-Luczak UNDER hits.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by rpdiddy

EP, Any thoughts on Krajinovic +125 vs. C. Rochus? Italy Challenger at 2pm est.

I actually looked at that one and thought about Krajinovic, but his form on clay since returning to it after Wimbledon has been shaky. Prior to the grass switch though, he had been pretty solid at the Challengers on clay. Rochus made the semis at this tournament last year, but is always a shady character. Tough call, one I am avoiding. Defintely not one to usually back the dirtier of the Rochus brothers at a favorites price.

**newjerseydevils** · 07-26-10, 10:17 AM

hey eagles.....what do u think of dolgopolov today?

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 10:30 AM

I don't like the price except to use in a parlay, but he's got experience beating Lorenzi before and should be better this week after getting his feet back on clay last week in Germany. I'm surprised Lorenzi remembered how to travel across borders since he plays 75% or more of his season in Italy!

**newjerseydevils** · 07-26-10, 10:35 AM

haha yeah i noticed that as well when i was doing some research..almost all his games he played were in italy.... thanx for the insight eagles

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 10:46 AM

DOUBLES PARLAY: MOODIE & NORMAN-MELO & SOARES [-115]
Both these experienced teams play at the Suisse Open in Gstaad today. Moodie and Norman draw a thrown together Swiss pair in Chiudinelli & Lammer. Both are not doubles players by any means and rarely if at all play doubles on the ATP level. Moodie & Norman should show them the door today. Melo & Soares are a pair of Brazilians who have done decent work on clay courts this year. They lost a tough super breaker last week in the semis in Hamburg. They draw Bellucci & Ferreiro. Bellucci again is someone who plays a few doubles matches, but is thrown together with someone else. This time, Franco Ferreiro. Ferreiro has some doubles talent as he has won a few Challenger titles this season, but that was the Challenger level and not against an experienced ATP duo like Melo & Soares. Might be a tight fight if Bellucci serves well here, but I think he's probably only going to use this as more practice to acclimate to the courts for singles play.

**beefcake** · 07-26-10, 10:50 AM

Well the public is drinking the Fish kool-aide once again...Bet ed went form 250-1 to 100-1 over night...Bet us went from 200 to 150 and 5 dimes has him at 115-1...

...

Nice hit on the under eagles...!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 10:57 AM

I was curious about that, figured it would happen again. That is just stupid. If he loses in the first couple of rounds in LA which is probably likely with the travel-fatigue angle, it'll trend back out again. I like that with Federer's fall, we've got really nice futures prices all over for the US Open. +275 is the lowest [Nadal-Federer]. Sure that will change when the draws comes out, but better than seeing someone already near even odds.

**Goat Milk** · 07-26-10, 10:58 AM

EP Malisse will cruise.

And I liked Chela earlier but Chela is a known Fixer in these tourneys. Kind of making me second guess because this tourney means nothing to him.

**beefcake** · 07-26-10, 11:07 AM

Lets hope chela is on the right side of the fix today..

**newjerseydevils** · 07-26-10, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Lets hope chela is on the right side of the fix today..

yeppp

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 02:18 PM

Rain everywhere right now. Gstaad probably done for the day with one half of the doubles pending. Moodie & Norman up a set, tied 5-5 in the 2nd. Chela close to coughing up his break lead in the first it looks like, but raining.

**newjerseydevils** · 07-26-10, 02:37 PM

heard they gonna be finishing up Umag tommorrow.....hopefully thats not true.....maybe this rain delay is a good thing....give chela a chance to think about choking and giving back the break

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-26-10, 03:14 PM

Back in-play in Croatia.

**Yezzir** · 07-26-10, 03:15 PM

Missed your doubles parlay

**newjerseydevils** · 07-26-10, 03:17 PM

yepppp.....hopefully no more delays

**ha1ogen** · 07-26-10, 03:25 PM

chela locks up the first set, hope he finishes this off

**newjerseydevils** · 07-26-10, 03:27 PM

exactly...hopefully chela doesnt mess around and finish this off in the next set...dont want a third set...too stressful

**newjerseydevils** · 07-26-10, 04:06 PM

Chela Cruises.......NOW we need sela to tank and malisse to play tough