Lightning tennis thread

[Lightning]

Had my first losing night of the Olympics, and safe to say I got all of the womens matches COMPLETELY wrong haha.

ATP MEXICO

- Zeballos to WIN - $1.65 - TWO STAKES

Benneteau's win over Donaldson came after he rallied from being a set and 5-2 down in the second set. I'm really not sure how Donaldson lost that, but it's Julien's second decent victory for the year. He's primarily a defensive player, and Zeballos is in great form at the moment.

- Carreno-Busta to WIN 2-0 - $1.9 - TWO STAKES

Love Carreno-Busta because he wins and loses when he's supposed to. Am fairly confident that he'll win tonight.

OLYMPICS - MENS

- Donskoy +4.5 games - $1.62 - ONE STAKE
- Goffin x Bautista-Agut - $1.75 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

- Monfils to WIN - $1.60 - ONE STAKE
- Fognini +5.5 games - $2.25 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

- Nadal -4.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

OLYMPICS - WOMEN

- Kasatkina/Keys OVER 20.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

Some interesting stats on this one thanks to Blake Miles. Kastakina is 15-7 when the total posted games is 20.5-21.5. She is also 2-1 on overs in quarterfinals this year, while Keys is also 2-1 on overs. I'm going to roll with the heavy trend.

- Puig -2.5 games - $1.8 (Unibet) - ONE STAKE

Another one on stats I obtained from Blake. Puig is 4-1 in terms of money line (win/loss) in quarters this year, while she's covered her line in all the five quarters she's played (one time as a favourite, and four as an underdog). I thought at first that -2.5 was a bit steep, but she did just dismantle Muguruza and she's had a pretty good year. I'll back her in.

- Kerber -3.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

Kerber's first set against Stosur was OUTSTANDING. One of the few girls that seems to try hard every match. I've written multiple times that I'd back Kerber in against anyone. The angles she generates are fantastic, and although Konta is also in fantastic form, Kerber is another step up.

I'm also leaning towards Kamke to beat Granollers but I can't bring myself to post it up haha.

Cheers.

[cryptocap]

Zverev - Karlovic?

[Lightning]

No definitely plays, but would lean towards unders.

[Lightning]

Karlovic is now a $2.5 fav to win Los Cabos, which is nice. Come in from $6.5, and I might hedge in the final. My 'Kvitova to win her quarter' bet won through today, and Nishikori has to win tonight for my quarter bet on him to come through as well. Here's hoping.

OLYMPICS - WOMENS

- Kvitova/Puig First set UNDER 9.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

- Kerber -2.5 games - $1.8 (bet365 or sb or really any book that voids lines in the event of a retirement) - TWO STAKES
- Kerber to WIN 2-0 - $2.5 (unibet) - TWO STAKES

Going large on Kerber but quite confident. I'm in a pretty good place with my futures picks so I can possibly afford to lose a few stakes in search of more profit.

OLYMPICS - MENS

- Murray -4.5 games - $1.57 - ONE STAKE

The surface is slow enough that Johnson's biggest advantage - his serve - is not as much of a threat.

- Nadal -4.5 games - $1.75 - ONE STAKE

I don't care about the home advantage vs. Nadal - the guy has immense focus. Home advantage doesn't disguise the fact that Bellucci is a pretty grouse player.

- Bautista-Agut to WIN - $2.3 - ONE STAKE

Cheers!

[Lightning]

Also adding one more:

ATP LOS CABOS

- Carrenon-Busta to WIN - $2.8 - ONE STAKE
- Lajovic +2.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

[Lightning]

Just a couple quick bets to wrap up a successful tournament!

- Kerber 2-0 - $1.7 - TWO STAKES

- Nadal 2-0 - $2.6 - ONE STAKE

Kerber has been just phenomenal this tournament, and no matter how good Puig has been, she won't match that.

Nadal is just a warrior. He won doubles, and look how much it meant to him. In a match like this, it's going to come down to whoever wants it more, and that is Nadal. Del Potro has been good, no question, and I can't wait to see him play in the US Open, but he HAS looked a little out of touch occasionally on the backhand side, and no-one is better at exploiting right-hand backhands than Nadal.

Also one LIVE:

- Murray -3.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

[Lightning]

boom on murray, thought he would outclass Mishikori, and he did. semifinal brought renewed focus

[Lightning]

After a pretty successful Olympics, I'm back for Cincinnati.

MENS

- Cuevas +2.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

Two big servers with relatively weak return games makes me think that this will go over, and despite what people think about Querrey, I still don't rate him. Cuevas is undervalued, so take him in a game where I expect one set will go to a tiebreak.

- Troicki +4 games - $1.85 (Pinnacle) - ONE STAKE

Troicki is a counter puncher - meaning that his general strategy is to manipulate his opponent around the court with low-risk shots until a) his opponent makes an error or b) Troicki gets a short ball to put away. Usually they're better on slower courts, but Troicki has had some success on faster courts. As a matter of fact, I think Troicki's best surface is hard. Cilic is someone that is amazing when on, but like any aggressive player, can make a lot of errors. I haven't been impressed with Cilic's form in the last few weeks so I'm prepared to take the four games advantage on the guy who's had some h2h success in the past.

- Simon to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

Surely this is a mistake. With how inconsistent Dimitrov has been, this is a great match-up for Simon. Another defensive player, he'll just get every ball back and let Dimi make the mistakes he's been making.

WOMENS

- Gavrilova to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

- Zhang to WIN - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

- Donna Vekic +5.5 games - $1.7 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

- Zheng to WIN - $2.3 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER CORDENONS

- Daniel to WIN 2-0 - $1.5 (Sportsbet) - ONE STAKE

Cheers!

[Jeff_Black]

Good to see I wasnt the only one who thought Troicki +4 was too good to be true, watch him lose 6-3 6-3 now haha

[Lightning]

Good to see I wasnt the only one who thought Troicki +4 was too good to be true, watch him lose 6-3 6-3 now haha

F*cking damn it Jeff, jinxed him ahahaha

[Lightning]

WTA CINCINNATI

- Gavrilova to WIN - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
- Kasatkina -3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

ATP CINCINNATI - ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS SPECIFIED

- Goffin -5 games - $1.9 (Pinnacle)
- Delbonis +4.5 games - $1.7

- Monfils -4.5 games - $2
- Karlovic -2.5 games - $1.7 - TWO STAKES

- Ramos +2.5 games - $1.9
- Wawrinka -4.5 games - $1.8 (Pinnacle)

- Bautista-Agut 2-0 - $1.7

Cheers!

[BIG]

Goffin is such a piece of shit. Up 40 to 0 serving to win 3rd set 6-2 misses on 5 total match points. I should get tiks 2moro and punch him right in the face lol

[Lightning]

No shit hey, legit almost threw my phone across the room. How...

[Lightning]

CINCINNATI WOMENS

- Halep -5.5 games - $1.75 - ONE STAKE

Halep got to the final of this tournament last year, and thus she needs to do the same to maintain the rankings points. It's the type of game where I'm not worried about her losing, just more how much she'll win by. She'll have the advantage in every point played, and in games like this, 5.5 is a pretty good line.

- Vekic +5.5 games - $2.15 (Unibet - only for the higher price though, other bookies have the same line) - ONE STAKE

I managed to catch a bit of Vekic's match against Ivanovic, and I was pretty impressed. She absolutely nailed her down the line shots, and everytime Ana came into the net, she came up with a pass. There was one cracking one cross court in particular towards the end of the match that was magical.

Konta has just come from the Olympics, so I'm not 100% sure on her focus. I think the way that Vekic is playing, she has a chance to knock her off, so I'm not going to hesitate in taking the 5.5.

- Cornet +3.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

Cornet's best surface is 100% hard court, and she's already played 3 matches on Cincinnati's surface. Suarez Navarro hasn't. Regardless of whether or not SN is better, I still think the familiarity counts for something.

- Vandeghwe to WIN - $3 - HALF STAKE


MENS CINCINNATI

I'll start off by saying that I liked the look of Nishikori -4.5 games vs. Youzhny and Millman on the line against Thiem at first, but I'm just not sure how Nishikori will go at first (whether the Olympics will affect him). I do think he'll win, but Youzhny has a vast amount of experience and might make it difficult. On the flip side, Nishikori could blow him away. Same with Millman vs. Thiem. I was hoping for Millman +5.5 or even +4.5 but +3.5 is probably about right for the time and place of this contest, and for me there's not huge value in it. Thiem has actually stated publically that he doesn't really care so much about this tourney, it's more prep for the US open.

- Raonic -1.5 games - $2 (Pinnacle - only because the lines on sportsbet and aussie bookies aren't up yet) - TWO STAKES
- Monfils -3.5 games - $1.65 - THREE STAKES
- Tomic to WIN - $3 - HALF STAKE
- Verdasco +3.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

Will try to update with explanations later.

[Lightning]

Solid night last night thanks to Monfils, the line covering machine. Unfortunately, it does seem as if he's withdrawn which is unfortunate. I'm quietly hoping for Sugita to upset Raonic just because I'm Australian and I always root for the underdog ahaha

CINCINNATI MENS

- Tomic to WIN - $3.5 - ONE STAKE
- Nadal -4.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Berdych to WIN - $1.8 - TWO STAKES

CINCINNATI WOMENS

- Pliskova -3.5 games - $1.75 - ONE STAKE

The higher bounce of these courts should really suit the 186 cm tall Czech. Doi is great on faster courts, but not on clay as much. I think this is partly because she's only 159 cm tall, which means that a lot of high-bouncing balls are hard to control. I'd love for Doi to win this because I really enjoying watching her style, but the conditions suit Pliskova.

- Vinci/Suarez-Navarro UNDER 21.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

I'm predicting a demolition job here. The thing with Vinci is that she either seems to be smashed or smash her opponent.

- Kerber 2-0 - $1.85 (Pinnacle - higher price) - ONE STAKE

If Kerber plays like she has been, this needs no explanation. Also, with Williams' withdrawal, if Kerber wins this, she'll be number one. What other motivation does one need?

- Babos to WIN - $2.9 - ONE STAKE

Babos has been playing SO WELL lately, it's ridiculous. Bit of a smoky play, but one I'm confident in.

Cheers

[Chiefs83]

Got if bet on nadal -4.5 +105 and berdych -120 for a nickel each... Come on lightning

[Lightning]

Well, it looks like Berdych is going to get done in straight sets, which is raaaatheeerrr annoying, but still +1.95 for the night, if the calculations in my head are correct.

[Lightning]

Got if bet on nadal -4.5 +105 and berdych -120 for a nickel each... Come on lightning

Damn, you managed to grab two that lost ahaha

[Lightning]

Alrighty, couple of underdogs hitting last night, which is nice. From my head, I gained +1.95 units.

MENS CINCINNATI

- Johnson to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

This one is purely a gut feeling... I don't generally like relying solely on gut because that's not always a great way to tip, but I've hit Tomic, Babos and Tomic again by doing this, so my gut is in good form I just think that Johnson is the one playing with the greater passion in front of the home crowd.

- Thiem/Raonic OVER 23.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

- Murray -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

Hard to get a consistent read on Tomic's level but I can't not take this the way Murray is playing.

WTA CINCINNATI

I will update later because the full markets haven't been released yet.

[Lightning]

ATP WINSTON SALEM

- Youzhny 2-0 - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Hughes-Herbert to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Dzumhur to WIN - $2.35 - ONE STAKE
- Nishioka to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Delbonis to WIN - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
- Edmund x Vesely x Schwartzman - $2.4 - ONE STAKE


WTA NEW HAVEN

- Gibbs to WIN - $1.75 - ONE STAKE
- Sakkari -2.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
- Bacsinsky -4.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

[Lightning]

Unfortunate last night... probably one of the worst nights I've ever had but it was probably coming after an awesome last three weeks.

ATP WINSTON SALEM

- Carreno-Busta to WIN - $1.6 - ONE STAKE

This guy has such a solid game. I cannot remember a time where he surprised me with a result, in either winning or losing. If he's favourite to win, he'll win. If he's not, he'll lose. Pretty simple.

- Querrey/Garcia-Lopez OVER 22.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

5/5 of their h2h games went OVER the posted total. I don't like using past h2h as a pure reason to choose a pick, but when there is such a dominant stat, then that generally indicates a match-up angle that you can exploit.

- Vesely/Anderson OVER 22.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

Same goes here. 3/4 of their games went over, and the one that didn't fell short by .5 of a game. Both very strong serves, and both have average return games.

ATP US OPEN QUALIFIERS

- Olivo to WIN - $1.4 - TWO STAKES
- Fabbiano to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Stebe +5 games - $1.9 (Pinnacle) - ONE STAKE
- Kovalik to WIN - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
- Dancevic to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Basilashvili 2-0 - $2 - ONE STAKE

[BIG]

Wow Olivo is a tuff start for Me today I got -240 and 2 units I took...ouch

[Lightning]

+2.4 units for the night, with 3/3 on ATP.

[Conqueror]

Wow Olivo is a tuff start for Me today I got -240 and 2 units I took...ouch

The games are rigged. Sorry for your loss.

[Lightning]

The games are rigged. Sorry for your loss.

Oh. My. God.

If you actually believe games that you lose money on are 'rigged' then I'm not sure betting is for you.

[BIG]

+2.4 units for the night, with 3/3 on ATP.

Nice day!

Where you at today sir lol?

[Lightning]

Had a lot on today guys, but better late than never.

ATP WINSTON SALEM

- Robert +4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

Normally would take the other side but can't see Gasquet putting in 100% ahead of the US Open, especially when he's just come back from injury. Robert is solid, and has his tail up. He won't beat himself, and even if Gasquet wins, I think Robert can get a set.

- Troicki to WIN - $2.7 - ONE STAKE

Still fading Querrey more than anything here tbh. Troicki has a compact game, and I'll have a crack at these odds. Troicki at his best could dismantle the American.


WTA NEW HAVEN

- Vinci to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE

Konjuh has won four games in a row at this tourney... but should Vinci really be an outsider here? The answer is no, which means the value is there and I'm on.

- Kvitova/Bouchard FIRST set games UNDER 9.5 - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

Going with the dominant trend, 0-3-0 in terms of O/U/P on first set over/under lines in their head to heads. Often happens quite a bit in womens matches anyway.

ATP US OPEN QUALIFIERS

Missed the boat on a few already, but will list a few. Went +0.02 on these last night, so basically broke even but if the value is there, I'm down.

- Karatsev to WIN - $2.3 (Unibet or Pinnacle, for the price. Other bookies are around $2.05-.10) - ONE STAKE
- Kravchuk -4.5 games - $2.1 (Pinnacle) - ONE STAKE
- Kamke to WIN - $1.7 - ONE STAKE
- Donaldson x Stepanek x Millot - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
- Vasselin/Opelka OVER 23.5 - $2 - ONE STAKE

[Lightning]

Boooooooom. If Troicki gets up from here, it's a huge night! +5 units. Even if he doesn't it's still +2.3 which is better than a shot in the foot.

[akasars]

Sick cash today lightning

[Lightning]

Sick cash today lightning

Cheers bud. Well done with your overnight picks as well

[Lightning]

ATP WINSTON SALEM

- Richard Gasquet OVER 12.5 games - $1.65 (Sportsbet) - ONE STAKE

John Millman is a guy that will try his heart out, all day long. Like I said yesterday, I'm not sure Gasquet will if the going gets tough. I wanted to take the line, but +3.5 wasn't enough for there to be value. Robert couldn't put any pressure on the Frenchman, but Millman has been in career best form, and in a match he cares more about, might have a chance.

- Kuznetsov to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

Kuznetsov probably shouldn't be outsider. He's having a career-best 24 months, and could more than challenge CB here. He does have a record of beating him as well, with two h2h victories (both on clay though).

- Troicki to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE

I'm all over the Serbian here. The issue with Victor is focus. If he has it, he's capable of playing at a ridiculous level. If he doesn't, then he'll get beaten by a guy ranked 250. I watched a bit of his game against Querrey, and I'm pretty sure he's switched on. He broke Querrey three times, and didn't really look troubled. He beat Edmund, also a tricky opponent, in straight sets. I almost think he could go all the way.



WTA NEW HAVEN

I don't understand how Kvitova opened at $6, has played two matches, and is now still $5???? At the very minimum she should be around $4 - I watched her match against Bouchard and she was striking it amazingly well. This is what I mean when I say that the odds don't always reflect reality.

- Larrsson to WIN - $2.4 (William Hill) - ONE STAKE

- Vesnina to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE



ATP US OPEN QUALIFIERS

- Fabbiano x Melzer x Millot - $2.4
- Donaldson x Kamke x Stepanek x Sugita - $1.85
- Tepevac to WIN - $1.8
- Khachanov -3 games - $1.9 (Pinnacle)
- Souza to WIN - $1.85
- Diez to WIN - $2.4 (Pinnacle)


Cheers!

[Mr.Gold]

Something for today boss?

[Lightning]

Something for today boss?

Sorry mate, had a break last night. Might have something for tonight, but would probably only be the single play if anything.

Cheers

[Mr.Gold]

For tonight? i'm from Portugal so now is 4 am here. Are you talking about saturday night or actually friday yet?

Cheers bro

[Lightning]

For tonight? i'm from Portugal so now is 4 am here. Are you talking about saturday night or actually friday yet?

Cheers bro

Ahh, timezone difference. I'm in Australia, so I mean our Saturday night, which would be in the day for you.