Damn. I liked a lot of the dogs who won today. Stayed off them though because It's usually a blood bath when that is my feeling for the day. Grrrrrrr.
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ATP St.Petersburg: Donskoy +120
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Typical. The one dog I add in after passing on the winners is losing. Donskoy should just change the letters in his name to reflect his play, Donkey.Comment -
They say he's Davydenko's disciple.Comment -
Certainly shows. All these Eastern Euro kids play the same. Kings for a set. Queens for the match.Comment -
My luck is even worse than yours, EP. I tailed you on your two losers but not your winner.Comment -
I should always follow my inclination on these sort of days. Skip 'em all or get buried and play 'em all. Oh well, down a unit for the day. Nuts to that.Comment -
EP, here is what another capper wrote regarding the two tournaments going on and was wondering if you have any theories about why the dogs do better at St Petes and how this info can be used to gain an edge when betting on these events. My own theory is that the surface at St Petes is slower (based on an article I read from a reputable source), which allows clay court guys (the dogs) to compete better with the hard court guys.
The dogs are in St Petes.
I was doing a history on all 250 series tournaments and I'm trying to figure out, why is it at the Metz for example, in the last 4 years including this year, of the 32 ranked players, 4 of those ranked players were eliminated in the first round, but in St. Petersburg, of the 32 ranked players, 14 of the ranked players were eliminated first round. Making the Q's at Metz are 17 of 24 in the last three years and 11 of the 24.
Some tournys the favs almost always win, some tournys the dogs or home town nobodys win. Unusual historys at the 250's and 500's. You can't say "They don't care." Tsonga's won the last two years. Good way for him to get points at the end of the year I guess... but why isn't Berdych in St. Pete's doing the same thing?Comment -
By far the biggest reasons:
1. Seeds couldn't care any less.
2. Russia.Comment -
No I mean Russia as in Russians, Russian morals, and Russian squalor (one of the least prestigeful tournaments on the calendar). I wouldn't feel safe if I were Pirate by the way... I hear Russians don't take very kindly to homosexuals.
I'm sure the city is lovely though!Comment -
I think in general at the 250 level tournaments, dogs find more success than in others especially early. Also when you consider this is the 1st tourney for many since the US Open, rust and motivation are always in play. Of course as soon as you think dogs are the way to go, favorites will pillage and rape the village.Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 09-19-13, 01:59 PM.Comment -
I think the easy answer is Metz usually draws a tougher field for whatever reason. Look at the St.Petersburg draws, hell just look at the seeds this year - the field is weaker.
By default most of the last four years, if a handful of the French players decide to play - the field is substantially stronger than STP. Generally, French tennis is deeper than Russian - so getting the locals to participate = better field overall and the seeds usually are stronger as a result of French participation.Comment -
It has far more to do with motivation than anything as far as I'm concerned. The field is usually quite weak in Russia which also results in more upsets. Generally speaking I think that this week the people who give a f*ck go to France, and the people who don't go to Russia.Comment -
Thanks EP and Hardcoar, for the intelligent conversation. It could also be a combination of everything we said, better players, better food in France, and the slower courts at St Pete. That works for me. Here is another one I want to run by you guys. EP, I know you don't put much stock in line movements but a few people on another forum bet on Berloc today because of the fishy line movement in his favor (I think he went from +420 to +280). They claim Kohl is an under the radar fixer and bet against him. What's your take on this (both on Kohl as a fixer and line movement tipping them off as to how the match would go). Have you ever made a play based on this kind of info? Thanks.Comment -
I would never base a play solely on line movement. Pointed it out early in the week. Line moved 70 cents or so in favor or Mathieu over Querrey, but anyone who had seen Mathieu play his first match and saw post match comments - knew he was tired from a long week before and a long 1st match. Mathieu was flat and retired after one set.
I did not watch a second of the Kohlschreiber match today. Never heard anything about him being accused of fixing. Playing two tie breaks in the 1st two sets seems like a pretty shitty way to try to fix a match if that is the case because you're really putting the result in question with a mistake.
I just think for every case where the line moves and the result matches - there is another that doesn't. Some may have legit input that led to a lot of money coming against a player who has a hidden injury or something, but plenty more of it could be just bullshit or as someone else pointed out a week or two ago ... some sort of program spreading money out that effects the line with absolutely no information behind it.
I'd rather do my homework, make my pick and stick with it. I will say, I'm not against jumping off a pick if I see some wild line movement. But that only helps if you wait until close to match time to book.Comment -
As usual, great breakdown of the problem. It's hard to know when the movement means something and when it's bogus. But tennis is an easy sport to fix. Also (outside of Nadal and Serena) it's hard to know who will actually show up to play night in and night out. After several months of betting tennis I have little profit to show (about a grand) and a lot of mental scars and stomach ulcers. I think I prefer the team sports (Basketball/Football) because it's much harder for one guy to affect the outcome (though it does happen), and there are always others who can pick up the slack (or coaches who can bench/yell at whoever is sleepwalking through the game). I mean, was there any way Miami was going to lose to the Pacers in game 7, with the help of the crowd and the refs? And they were only -360. Compare that to a -360 in tennis and you'll see my point. BTW, sorry about your Eagles tonight.Comment -
Tennis is probably the biggest grind in gambling IMO. So many different ways to potentially make some profit, but you can't exclusively live off just dogs, just totals or just chalk parlays - all will burn you in some fashion due to the unpredictability of the sport/effort levels, etc. It reminds me a lot of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, except we're talking a year round sport. The more you follow it though, the more you can get a little bit of a gauge for times where you have to be exceptionally watchful of guys not showing with motivation and upsets being more likely - seems to be a lot of that right before and right after Grand Slams. Masters Events are usually a bit better for consistency, but even those have upsets that are hard to predict. For me, tennis is really a research sport whereas some of the team sports can be more of a "feel" thing for people on their picks.Comment -
Agree with everything you said EP, but I want to focus on what I find most interesting and troubling about betting tennis. "Research sport" is right! I guess when I see guys as knowledgable as yourself grinding I get a bit disheartened. First, I think to myself, what business do I have betting on a sport where the guys who know ten times more than me are maybe getting (and correct me if I'm wrong) 57-63% of their picks right? Next, the fact that I don't know these players' games inside and out, the way I need to to remain profitable, kills me. (Although I watch a lot of tennis, it doesn't mean I see it the way someone who really understands the game sees it. So I depend on commentators, or cappers like yourself, to tell me about all the nuances.) As a guy who is working on a PhD, I understand that your kind of knowledge takes a lot of time and work, and unless you really love it, you can't become good at it.Comment -
September 20th
ATP St.Petersburg: Gulbis/Bautista-Agut Over 22 [-101]
ATP Metz: Becker +119
ATP St.Petersburg: Istomin -120
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Oh man you flatter me. I certainly don't know everyone's game, but I don't think you have to in order to win. There's a few guys on this sight and around the Internet who have played the sport and can talk to you all day about what a player's topspin will do to a guy's backhand - but they aren't any more profitable than anyone else in the long run from what I have seen. I just try to do what I can to look at form, looking over stats and the most important thing - checking to see about injuries.
The thing I have found that makes the most sense is not to bet a boatload of money per pick. Guys like to show off their bankroll, but for me betting more than $50 to $100 on tennis is not something I really like to do.Comment -
Mahut is playing Becker on my site so not sure who your referring tooComment -
OK, then, EP, let's talk about your picks, or one of them. I really like Istomin in this spot as well but it is a gut feeling more than anything else. I've watched him play this summer on TV and the guy is a fighter. But head to head it looks like GGL has the advantage and these courts don't play very fast (so they are closer to clay). In other words, my gut tells me Istomin but the stats (and court conditions) tell me it's a tossup at best. So what am I missing?Comment -
Let's talk about my first pick, it sucked ass.Comment -
All picks sucked. Should have just gone to sleep after the football game instead if looking these over. These probably win because I left them out: Simon, Tsonga-Kamke Over.Comment -
And indeed, Simon wins. So irritating to leave winners off the card. Have to remind myself it pays off in the long run to not overload the card, but damn these last two days.Comment -
can I get your opinion on the Berlocq total EP?Comment -
And Tsonga-Kamke over hits. Unreal. LoL. Sometimes you just gotta laugh at the ones you leave off the card that cash.
No clue on Berlocq-Mayer. And what's the confirmed match fixing on Kohlschreiber? I know he was accused back in 2007, but nothing was ever proven - it was a bookie giving names and two of his matches had some abnormal betting patterns. Nothing about him since then. One of the matches in question was him losing to Tsonga in the Metz tournament that year. Tsonga has owned him ever since, so ...Comment -
He retired yesterday with a knee injury.Comment -
EP, any chance Przy upsets Gulbis in upset city? And the over 21 looks good as well. This all based on their previous HtoH.Comment
