I hit Cleveland to win live two more times.
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Not going to lie, the Over in JAX is a good Contrarian play. In fact the money and tickets are heavy on the Under.
The tickets are one thing, not too extreme on the Under, but the money is very extreme....
...It's a strange situation and in most cases is a market read style pass, but for the NFL Fund, it's a play.
The game is going Over, I would think, but clearly big money likes an Under.
Are we going to disagree with the big money and the Fund total play?
Maybe...lol.
Last edited by KVB; 09-16-18, 02:58 PM.Comment -
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sprinkled cle +345 live
NOOOOOOO
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pick up saints if it reaches OTComment -
Unfukkin real. I'm all Cleveland here.
Fuk.Comment -
thanks for the insights, maybe try for NE over liveComment -
Ok, so I know I wasn't posting, but I may have to short my NFL Fund depending on the afternoon's action.
Currently, the NFL Fund, which has only had a couple of plays posted pre game, is 13-2-1.
Here are the remaining plays today...
If it runs up higher, we may have an extra opportunity here.279 ARI 13 -108 280 LAR U 45 -120 281 DET O 48 -112 284 JAX U 45.5 -110 286 DEN -6 -115
There becomes a difference between early and mid season so more has to be analyzed.
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I would imagine we see some failure this afternoon.Comment -
Off to the dispensary. GG#5 (cross between GG #4 and GG#1) and Hitman OG in my future.
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Jiggle em if you got em.
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Can't find genetics on Hitman, say not available to the public...lol.
Cost me $33 per 1/8 after the weekly deal and I don't pay taxes on any of it, I am exempt.
I think it's worth it. Picked up some Gelato Cake wax/crumble too.
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I said jiggle em if you got em.
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unloading
NYG/DAL over 41.5Comment -
Two Props but the lines have really moved. These were both +105 but now they are favored...
Allen Hurns receiving yards OVER 34.5 (-120)
Deonte Thompson receiving yards UNDER 26.5 (-145)
Huge move on Thompson but the line is still 26.5.
Let's see how it goes.
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I also bought Allen Hurns Over 3 receptions (-118).
On accident.
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Here's what I have at one Heritge account, to show where I made the mistake...
The -2.5 is live and all I could get was 35.5 at that book. I took it as well. They didn't have the D Thompson prop.Short Description Football - 3287298 Total receptions by A. Hurns vs Total receptions by A. Hurns over 3 -118 for Game Football - 3287296 Total receiving yards by A. Hurns vs Total receiving yards by A. Hurns over 35½ -110 for Game 3072299 - Football - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants / Game / Point spread / Dallas Cowboys -2.5 -125
Looks like Dallas scored first
Fuk.
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Yes, this account is quite discretionary, not even a market reads account.
Lets get Stooopid!!!!!!!!!Short Description Football - 3287298 Total receptions by A. Hurns vs Total receptions by A. Hurns over 3 -118 for Game Football - 3287296 Total receiving yards by A. Hurns vs Total receiving yards by A. Hurns over 35½ -110 for Game 3072299 - Football - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants / Game / Point spread / Dallas Cowboys -2.5 -125 3072634 - Football - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants / Game / Half Time / Full Time / Dallas Cowboys / Dallas Cowboys -226 3072667 - Football - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants / Game / Half Time / Full Time / Dallas Cowboys / Dallas Cowboys -250
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Short Description Football - 3287298 Total receptions by A. Hurns vs Total receptions by A. Hurns over 3 -118 for Game Football - 3287296 Total receiving yards by A. Hurns vs Total receiving yards by A. Hurns over 35½ -110 for Game 3072299 - Football - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants / Game / Point spread / Dallas Cowboys -2.5 -125 3072634 - Football - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants / Game / Half Time / Full Time / Dallas Cowboys / Dallas Cowboys -226 3072667 - Football - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants / Game / Half Time / Full Time / Dallas Cowboys / Dallas Cowboys -250 3072728 - Football - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants / Game / Half Time / Full Time / Dallas Cowboys / Dallas Cowboys -200
Fuk the sharks, I say no comeback tonight.
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Central Michigan covered and Akron outright won the game.Let me make up for it by giving some real analysis. I mentioned that it's not always about the road team but could be about the home team's failure...
Central Michigan +14 over N. Illinois:
The stacking forecast has N. Illinois winning with 27 points to C Mich's 20 points, but the line is 14! You see, Nilly hasn't scored shit in the last two outings. We have ample evidence over years that teams in this situation tend to get overestimated when they become home and favored. It's a situational component that, when factored into the margin of victory, has an effect on an already decent looking forecast. In all fairness, the public gauge shows Northern Illinois winning 28-20, seemingly mitigating the theory, but not the line. The public gauge is looked at but not used in producing the play.
Akron +21.5 over Northwestern:
We have the same situation with Northwestern as bettors may be looking to see their team bounce as well from a rough week. The stacking forecast shows N'Western winning with 38 points to Akron's 16 points but when we factor that situation into the line we see a failure on Northwestern's part here.
The public gauge shows a 27 point game and confirms the theory behind the numbers. Again the public gauge is not used in any way in making the decisions for this Fund. This Fund seeks predictive behaviors, the public gauge is non-predictive.
One caveat here. Before this Fund began there were 4 plays that factored in this situation for the home team; those plays went 3-1. I do not expect bets that are in part arrived using this metric to perform at such a high level. There could some volatility but these bets have a near 60% expectation of winning.
We are exploiting the nature of the bettors when dealing with home teams and favorites here, it's a nature that hasn't changed, perhaps ever.
So, stick that in your insomnia pipe and smoke it.
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The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund with a rough closing line comparison. There have been 20 total plays here, 3 of them are monelines...
Beating the closer, roughly, so maybe we should move it into the Total Return Fund. Not doing it yet, still looking at all my options.Record Date NCAAF ATS/ML Fund 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ATS BTC ML ATS per bet Line Closer? Average Average 0-1 30-Aug WAKE -6.5 (-105) -1 -7.5 Y 1 1-Sep MIA (OH) -125 -1 -110 N 0.15 0-2 SMU +3.5 (-109) -1 3 Y 0.5 1-2 WASH ST -3 (-103) 0.97 3 PUSH 0 MICH -130 -1 -151 Y 0.21 2-2 2-Sep LSU +3 (+105) 1.05 3 PUSH 0 2-3 3-Sep FLORIDA ST -7 (-110) -1 -7.5 Y 0.5 2-4 8-Sep N MEX ST +23 (-105) -1 21.5 Y 1.5 3-4 KANSAS +3 (+105) 1.05 3 PUSH 0 4-4 COLORADO +3 (-105) 0.95 3 PUSH 0 4-5 UMASS +1.5 (-102) -1 1.5 PUSH 0 4-6 FRESNO ST + 1 (-110) -1 0 Y 1 5-6 CAL +3 (-110) 0.91 2 Y 1 6-6 13-Sep UNC CHAR +1.5 (-105) 0.95 1.5 PUSH 0 6-7 15-Sep UMASS +3.5 (-108) -1 3.5 PUSH 0 6-8 FLORIDA ST -3 (-108) -1 -3.5 Y 0.5 BOISE ST -113 over OK ST -1 -116 Y 0.03 6-9 N MEX ST +3 (+100) -1 3 PUSH 0 7-9 DUKE +4.5 (-113) 0.88 2 Y 2.5 8-9 N TEXAS +6 (-105) 0.95 5.5 Y 0.5 8-9-0 Total -4.29 11-1-8 0.529412 0.13
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Kevin the Value Bettor
they should call you the hitmanComment -
nothing is more important than the grapes
moondrops for the nighttime snack
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i'm about to smoke on the shitman
some people open up their bags and say OG, i open up my bag and say Oh-No!Comment -
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Dove's went on a delete rampage, lol.
Here's the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket through it's 25 plays. I maintain that this is a decent fund to pick from and if you graph it in rotation order, you'll see, well just look. The fund dropped nearly 6 units this week. That's a decent move, I expect it to go positive, and I think I should prepare a long term graph to show the volatility.
Another choice for the Total Return Fund with this week's drop.
The closing line comparison is rough, it uses Pinny, but I think percentages are better. Either way, notice the record against the closer.
Maybe there's a bias because I may be squeezing parts of these plays into less sharp books, that already kicked out the guys honing the line at Pinny. That shouldn't be, but it's a big marketplace and I'm posting the line I get.
Date NCAAF UPSET Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML per bet Line Closer? Average 30-Aug KENNESAW ST +130 -1 120 Y 0.10 UC DAVIS +120 1.2 120 PUSH 0.00 1-Sep MARSHALL +120 1.2 -102 Y 0.22 SMU +150 -1 143 Y 0.07 MTENN ST +130 -1 134 N -0.04 8-Sep FLOR INT +115 1.15 -154 Y 0.69 DUKE +130 1.3 126 Y 0.04 ARI +157 -1 150 Y 0.07 KANSAS +167 1.67 134 Y 0.33 COLORADO +142 1.42 141 Y 0.01 IOWA ST +155 -1 145 Y 0.10 UMASS +125 -1 107 Y 0.18 FRESNO ST +115 -1 -110 Y 0.25 CINCI +105 1.05 101 Y 0.04 CAL +145 1.45 111 Y 0.34 15-Sep UMASS +165 -1 145 Y 0.20 RUTGERS +140 -1 -110 Y 0.50 OHIO +135 -1 164 N -0.29 BOISE ST +135 -1 -116 Y 0.51 HOUSTON +110 -1 106 Y 0.04 E MICH +150 -1 117 Y 0.33 OREGON ST +155 -1 158 N -0.03 ARK ST +115 1.15 108 Y 0.07 USC +145 -1 135 Y 0.10 FRESNO ST -102 0.98 -145 Y 0.43 Total -2.43 21-3-1 0.17
This Fund starting a wave around even, I like that. We should see a wave that tilts upward, but the bottom is hard to define.
I already have plays for next week.
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turtledoves is a horrible gambler
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If we really want to grind it out, there's a "Fund" that takes only moneyline upsets, but the moneylines are bigger. That one had LSU this week and is up this season with a 4-5 record. When you grind those size dogs, you have to endure losses, and can, to still get profit.
This week, that Fund had LSU, C Mich, E Mich, and Texas St. It went 1-3 and still made .18 units in profit.
It's like that.
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