Originally Posted by
fitguy67
'nother thing, bald guy...the whole-game "-1 PL" is best considered an alternate way of accomplishing the same thing as the "-0.5 reg"...a way of backing your team when the ML get too pricey...
notice today's card has DET -110...the ML's not too pricey...best to go the ML route (ie. stupid to give up the "1-goal victories" if you can have them for reasonable money)...
but WAS and LAK are more pricey...so ways of getting a better price (-0.5 reg OR -1PL) come into consideration...each having their advantages and disadvantages...with "reg" you win on the reg-1-goal victories that you'd just push with the -1...on the other hand, a reg-bet would lose a game tied after 60min, but your -1 bet still leaves you with a chance for a push)...in MLB the -1RL has always been the standard way of getting a better price...in hockey it's always been the reg-bet...(I just threw out the idea that there's no reason that the -1 can not be used in the NHL too)
on balance, in MLB or NHL...ML is the best way to go if not too price...if too pricey, either pass or consider a lower-cost alternative...that "sacrifices"--by losing or pushing--on some of the results that a ML-bet would clearly win...You gain a better price/you sacrifice ways of winning your bet.
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Nino is a "value-junkie"/not an "action junkie"...and i'd tail just as he calls 'em...i merely offered up an alternate to "-0.5 reg" that he calls for occasionally that some might appreciate...over the haul the two types of bet would be close in EV...with the -1 being less volatile (cuz of the reasonably-frequent pushes)...