1. #1
    gauchojake
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    Rams will probably make the playoffs

    I wrote some shit and then SBR zapped it so figure it out yourself. Basically the Rams and Seahawks will probably both end up at 9-8 with the Rams owning the tie breaker.



  2. #2
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Jake, that's a hell of a post:

    1) SEA has a tough schedule.
    2) RAMs caught a huge break with Brown injuries. Garrett likely to miss next game.

    Looks like Conf Record will be the key one to watch:
    NFL wild card tiebreakers

    • Head-to-head, if applicable.
    • Best winning percentage in conference games.
    • Best winning percentage against shared opponents, minimum of four.
    • Strength of victory.
    • Strength of schedule in all games.
    • Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.

  3. #3
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    I wrote some shit and then SBR zapped it
    Are you sure? Can't see anything deleted in your history.

    Maybe you didnt click post?

  4. #4
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Jake, that's a hell of a post:

    1) SEA has a tough schedule.
    2) RAMs caught a huge break with Brown injuries. Garrett likely to miss next game.

    Looks like Conf Record will be the key one to watch:
    NFL wild card tiebreakers

    • Head-to-head, if applicable.
    • Best winning percentage in conference games.
    • Best winning percentage against shared opponents, minimum of four.
    • Strength of victory.
    • Strength of schedule in all games.
    • Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
    Rams are 4-1 in the NFC West and have 2 wins vs the Seahawks. Unless they crap the bed against a sub par team or SEA happens to pull off an unexpected win, I think they can make it. Something to keep an eye on if you can get + money on that prop.

  5. #5
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Are you sure? Can't see anything deleted in your history.

    Maybe you didnt click post?

    No I pasted the tables instead of linking them and I got some sort of data error.
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  6. #6
    Optional
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    Possible Rams win next 5 on the trot really.

  7. #7
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Possible Rams win next 5 on the trot really.
    If the Ravens come out flat, they could beat them. Ravens off the bye at home though.

  8. #8
    Enkhbat
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    Ram will definitely beat the Browns

  9. #9
    stevenash
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    The good news first, you beat Seattle twice and that tie breaker carries a lot of clout.
    More good news, you still have the crappy Giants and Redskins left to play on the schedule.
    Wait, the news gets better, the Seahawks have a brutal stretch of games coming up.
    Back to back road games against the Cowboys and 49'ers, and follow that up with a home game vs. Philadelphia.
    Yeah, good luck with all that, by the time the Seahawks make it to Christmas Eve I can pretty much guarantee they'll be riding a five game losing streak.

    The Hawks are going to need a miracle to win just one of those three games, and the last time I checked Petey and Geno can not walk on water.

    As a matter of fact, I'm considering opening up one of those fancy rolling parlay tickets and fade Seattle the next three weeks. I won't get rich off of that, I did some quick calculations, that parlay should probably pay around eighty cents on the dollar, but I like to think of myself as a man of integrity, if you can't put your money where your mouth is, that makes you just a common blowhard, which I am not, I'm what you call an advanced blowhard, I'm next level blowhard.
    (Don't ya know)?

    I just did a brief search of the future odds on all teams just to make the playoffs.
    It seems most reputable books have pulled down the odds on the Rams to make the playoffs only.
    I'm just spit balling here, but I think the books are waiting on the result of the MNF game, and then the books will make the adjustments.

    I'm rooting for LA to reach the playoffs, they are a fun team to watch.
    As a matter of fact, all three California teams to watch.

    I like to be entertained.
    Riddle me this?
    Who doesn't like to be entertained?





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  10. #10
    gauchojake
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    Rams to make the playoffs is +240 at BOL

    There's a chance that the second wildcard could potentially come out of the NFC North but the Vikings have the Lions 2x plus Bears and Packers which is never
    easy. I guess we will see tonight.

  11. #11
    JIBBBY
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    IDK? Defense is very suspect still. Rams can't stop the run or pass. Offense is coming around though. Rams will just have to out score their opponents in up coming games to win.

  12. #12
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    IDK? Defense is very suspect still. Rams can't stop the run or pass. Offense is coming around though. Rams will just have to out score their opponents in up coming games to win.
    Rams d holds opponents to 21 on average which is dead in the middle of the league.

    If your just look at the schedule you can see they have a good chance of going 9-8 or 10-7 if they get lucky.

  13. #13
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Rams to make the playoffs is +240 at BOL

    There's a chance that the second wildcard could potentially come out of the NFC North but the Vikings have the Lions 2x plus Bears and Packers which is never
    easy. I guess we will see tonight.
    Jake, you are spot-on. I played the Yes +240. Win or lose, thx for the post and info.

    I do think this week is pivotal:
    1) The QB change should be a lateral move.
    2) Browns lucked out on Garrett. Looks like he'll play.
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  14. #14
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Rams d holds opponents to 21 on average which is dead in the middle of the league.

    If your just look at the schedule you can see they have a good chance of going 9-8 or 10-7 if they get lucky.
    You need more then a mediocre middle of the road defense to win games against good teams. Rams offense could carry them to the promise land though.

  15. #15
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    You need more then a mediocre middle of the road defense to win games against good teams. Rams offense could carry them to the promise land though.
    They aren't playing any good teams the rest of the year except the niners and Ravens. Look at the schedule.

  16. #16
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Jake, NY Times has the Ram Playoff Probability at 37%. SEA = 34%.

    37% would represent an ROI of +25%. I'm happy with that risk.

    Very keen insight by you. Granted, the playoff scenarios get murky if there are multiple teams tied for one slot. I do like that 2-0 H2H trump-card.

  17. #17
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Jake, here's the site:
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...in-chi-12=loss

    Vikings just took a big hit on the Bear game. Their Playoff probability dipped from 69% to 46%.

    Rams gained 3 pts. Now 40%.

    I still think there's a good chance the NFC produces an 8-9 playoff team. I think the Ram/Brown game will be razor-tight.

  18. #18
    gauchojake
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    Thanks Chuck- good info!
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  19. #19
    OldBill
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    lol you serious the rams are a joke they sold thier future to win a sb

  20. #20
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldBill View Post
    lol you serious the rams are a joke they sold thier future to win a sb
    OK, name the seven NFC playoff teams. Not an easy task.

    Seattle messed up badly by losing the game at the Rams. Also, the 5-6 NFC teams are live, even Green Bay.

  21. #21
    OldBill
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    chucky ok Dallas 49ers Eagles lions seattle rams ???

  22. #22
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldBill View Post
    chucky ok Dallas 49ers Eagles lions seattle rams ???
    Wait a minute. You de-famed the Rams in post 19.

  23. #23
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Wait a minute. You de-famed the Rams in post 19.
    Details.

  24. #24
    stevenash
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    Interesting win total props out there.

    Over/Under totals.

    Rams OVER 7.5 wins +140
    Seahawks OVER 8.5 wins -120

    Seahawks have six games left.
    Three incredibly difficult game against three very legit teams that can win the SB.
    Three against so called 'cupcakes' if you consider Pittsburgh a cupcake, they are mediocre, not a pushover.

    I burnt more brain cells analyzing the last six games the Seahawks have to play then I care to mention.
    Thanks Jaker.

    If you ask me (and nobody did) but being the blowhard that I am I am going to offer up my opinion anyway.
    Tons of value on the UNDER 8.5 total wins at +120

    I got the Seahawks going two and four down the stretch, not three and three.
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  25. #25
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Details.
    (See above)

    I'm saying that the posts above imply that:

    (19): "Haha. Rams won't make the playoffs."

    (21): "OK. Just kidding, Rams will make it."

    My point on the NFC is that SOMEBODY has to make it. Two weeks ago, I thought the seven teams looked obvious. But the Seahawks/Vikings slipped up.

    Demise of SEA/Min leads me to believe that the NFC faces the prospect of producing an 8-9 playoff team:
    1) AFC South champ, and/or
    2) Last wild-card (7-seed).

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/

    *SEA - remaining schedule is a tough run-out.
    *MIN - QB position now up in the air again.
    *GBAY - schedule runout is not too bad.
    *RAMS - feel like the Brown game (this week) is the swing-game.
    *SAINTS - have a chance. But I think their best route is to win the Division.

    ...Don't laugh. The Giants will look back at the Jet game as a missed opportunity. They had that game under wraps, only to mangle the Last 0:30 of regulation. That win would have put the Giants right in the mix at 5-7.

  26. #26
    budwiser
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    amazed anyone cares that the rams make the playoffs as they have a less than 0 chance of making it out of the nfc...but hey. we all gotta care about SOMETHING

  27. #27
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser View Post
    amazed anyone cares that the rams make the playoffs as they have a less than 0 chance of making it out of the nfc...but hey. we all gotta care about SOMETHING
    Somebody has to be the seven seed.
    Why not LA?

    Here are your locks.

    Philly
    Dallas

    Whoever wins that stinky South Division
    (Falcons have the tiebreakers)

    Detroit

    San Francisco

    Dallas has the #1 WC spot locked up.

    That leaves two WC spots to be had with LA now in the mix.
    And at 5:2 odds that there is mighty fine value.

  28. #28
    budwiser
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    i suppose.

    but then why not just put $ on the next rams game ml? or whatever team you think is going to lose for the rams to get in?

  29. #29
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser View Post
    i suppose.

    but then why not just put $ on the next rams game ml? or whatever team you think is going to lose for the rams to get in?
    I'm doing just that.
    Right now I'm considering all the options.

    I'm starting to think fading Seattle down the stretch is the way to go here.
    I'm offered +120 that they will not win three more games.

  30. #30
    budwiser
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I'm doing just that.
    Right now I'm considering all the options.

    I'm starting to think fading Seattle down the stretch is the way to go here.
    I'm offered +120 that they will not win three more games.
    ok. i guess everyone has a different method, main thing is pick what you think is the most probable winner and best return for it.

  31. #31
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    (See above)

    I'm saying that the posts above imply that:

    (19): "Haha. Rams won't make the playoffs."

    (21): "OK. Just kidding, Rams will make it."

    My point on the NFC is that SOMEBODY has to make it. Two weeks ago, I thought the seven teams looked obvious. But the Seahawks/Vikings slipped up.

    Demise of SEA/Min leads me to believe that the NFC faces the prospect of producing an 8-9 playoff team:
    1) AFC South champ, and/or
    2) Last wild-card (7-seed).

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/

    *SEA - remaining schedule is a tough run-out.
    *MIN - QB position now up in the air again.
    *GBAY - schedule runout is not too bad.
    *RAMS - feel like the Brown game (this week) is the swing-game.
    *SAINTS - have a chance. But I think their best route is to win the Division.

    ...Don't laugh. The Giants will look back at the Jet game as a missed opportunity. They had that game under wraps, only to mangle the Last 0:30 of regulation. That win would have put the Giants right in the mix at 5-7.
    I was mocking the OP for flip flopping and listing 6 when you asked for 7.
    Another Poor attempt at humor.
    Appreciate your responses. You do a lot for this place.
    Thanks man.

  32. #32
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    I was mocking the OP for flip flopping and listing 6 when you asked for 7.
    Another Poor attempt at humor.
    Appreciate your responses. You do a lot for this place.
    Thanks man.
    Thx, str.

    I know the content on this forum isn't too good. I thought Jake made a valid point about the NFC playoffs.

    It's going to be a very weak threshold in the NFC this year. If you go to the NYTimes site I linked, the Rams can even make the playoffs at 8-9.

    Look at the team schedules and draw some conclusions. I don't think the market Odds on "Make Playoffs: Yes/No" are particularly strong.

    One could argue that MINN is in bad shape. The HC lost confidence in the QB. Who does he play for the L5 games?

  33. #33
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    I should add one more caveat on this:
    *I used to study the NFL Tie-breaker rules pretty closely.

    It's NOT a perfect system. The Tie-breakers operate differently on H2H versus multi-way.

    The key is that IF Rams/SEA are the teams at 7/8, then the Rams would trump SEA based on a 2-0 H2H. It gets more complicated if it's a multi-way Tie. Conference record is important, so losses to the AFC sometimes don't mean as much.

  34. #34
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Thx, str.

    I know the content on this forum isn't too good. I thought Jake made a valid point about the NFC playoffs.

    It's going to be a very weak threshold in the NFC this year. If you go to the NYTimes site I linked, the Rams can even make the playoffs at 8-9.

    Look at the team schedules and draw some conclusions. I don't think the market Odds on "Make Playoffs: Yes/No" are particularly strong.

    One could argue that MINN is in bad shape. The HC lost confidence in the QB. Who does he play for the L5 games?
    I agree. I think Jake did as well.

    Minn. will be a big question mark.

    They could win every game... or lose every game.

    Great week for a bye and a reset if they can settle in at QB.

    Big "IF" though.

  35. #35
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser View Post
    amazed anyone cares that the rams make the playoffs as they have a less than 0 chance of making it out of the nfc...but hey. we all gotta care about SOMETHING
    I care about making bets that are above expected value. I don't think anyone expects the Rams to compete for a Superbowl this year.
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