I have a predicted score of Chicago winning 28-24. This differs from most forecasts who have SD winning by anywhere from 4 to 12 points. The higher the margin for San Diego, in general, the lower the Total predicted. Basic models predicting San Diego by about 4 have totals of about 50. More sophisticated models can predict San Diego by more with a total closer to 45.
While my model differs on the winner I have plenty of reason to side with the more common numbers. I have metrics indicating my moneyline prediction will fail here but it is difficult to predict the spread.
It seems that most discussion pulls this common money away from San Diego towards my line. This money is split as the more sophisticated common models seek San Diego.
I think there is a target group of bettors tonight that should fail. Those bettors are, for the most part, likely buying Chicago and the books will take any extra money that way. Those seeking San Diego may get a win here tonight but shouldn’t feel too emboldened when they do.
Because of this last warning to those bettors, I believe we will see attempts to embolden those bettors.
This would imply San Diego to not only win, but possibly kill many teasers with Chicago in them.
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