Japan down 5% to start here
Something bad is coming...
Something bad is coming...
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Fed speaks like 14 times this week and the market is primed to roll over on the slightest spook. I have been all in on the reopening trade but the only charts that look good for swing trade are mega to mid cap tech. I plan to buy weakness in Oil for longs, and try to swing AAPL ROKU & SPOT. I’ll have hedges in place on SPY & QQQ puts. The dollar is what is going to determine everything so I am watching it like a hawk, pun intended. This has all the makings of a week where everything is burning while mega caps are bought to put the lip stick on the pig.Comment -
Alright another big day in the stock market arena today. It is important to be the ref today and the whole week for that matter. It looks like they are staging a rescue operation today so where do the bulls need to get to for me to start believing in it. How about 417 on the SPY just to start. That is the line in the sand that could not be reached on Friday. They can start there and then look for other numbers like 417.75, and then if hourly candle closes (on the half hour) above 419.50 happen, I'll start thinking that last week was a Fed Taper tantrum and the rescue operation is on track.
What about a head fake gap and crap this morning. Where does the blood letting begin again? This one is easy, again hourly closes on the SPY under Friday's low which was near the close BTW at 414.70. If this happens, I don't see real support until around 411ish. Then the weekly line in the sand is next at 406.Comment -
The bloodbath turns into a rally. Gold making a big move too.
Dead cat bounce? Probably.
These kind of severe down drafts usually take a couple of months to heal. We could fill in some chart gaps but no new highs and probably some lower lows on the short term horizon.
Get you shopping list ready and buy small amounts of defensive issues over the next couple of months. Let's see if the "transitory inflation" theory holds true.Comment -
Smells like the SPY is going for 421 today, what level is that, how about the 20DMA. Getting above is a good start for a last week was all bullshyt scenario story. Only SMH is showing any weakness this late morning. The rescue operation may be on its way here. If its gets going then we'll start looking for a higher or lower high in all the indices some time this week to tell if the downturn is real or if the band is back together for some more grinding up action.Comment -
very fat cat bounceComment -
So the SPY crawls right up to kiss the 20 DMA in the last minute of the day and drops back a few cents. There are no coincidences. Now the repair operation is still intact with a gap to 422 as the next spot if there is a continuation tomorrow. Still looking for lower or higher highs to determine if se have seen the top yet.Comment -
So its turn around Tuesday, or Reach around Tuesday. Take your pick. What's on the docket today. I expect a pullback from the fat dead cat bounce. We'll see how we end the day today and if the rally is to continue, oddly enough it pretty much needs to pullback a little bit before continuing up toward the gap to fill at 422 to be in tact tomorrow. Look for down day in general of about 15 SPY points as I see it in my crystal balls, any more and it could be another leg down. If the market continues straight up north, it will get tired out and most likely fail way before it gets close to the high of the break down candle from last week. Ultimately they are climbing the most recent break down candle towards the high, which happens to be at the all time highs. I expect heavy resistance when the markets get up there with the possible exception of the QQQs breaking out slightly.
Remember you still have to be the referee this week, and as an awareness the Fed will be testifying which is always big fun. I suspect he will tout the transitory nature of the inflation and how he has it all under control. Its all the biggest load of bull shyt ever stacked up because the truth is the Fed can't raise rates to combat inflation. The country is insolvent and can barely withstand the interest at these levels any increase will crash the economy so the bubble must be inflated and keep being inflated until it looks like the guy in the Monty Python sketch. Some of us know how it ends for that guy.Comment -
Remember you still have to be the referee this week, and as an awareness the Fed will be testifying which is always big fun. I suspect he will tout the transitory nature of the inflation and how he has it all under control. Its all the biggest load of bull shyt ever stacked up because the truth is the Fed can't raise rates to combat inflation. The country is insolvent and can barely withstand the interest at these levels any increase will crash the economy so the bubble must be inflated and keep being inflated until it looks like the guy in the Monty Python sketch. Some of us know how it ends for that guy.
My perceived belief in this stmt by Slurry scares me long term?Comment -
watch the MACD and easily identifiable SPX resistance. If it is overcome, fine, but probably not, given the tech rebound
is the only thing moving SPX/SPY lately. The Dow can't recapture 34k. It tried hard today but was pushed back.
If they are going to keep it inflated another month then they need levels a little higher. Without these it's just a matter
of time until another downdraft happens, as bulls will start to wonder why it isn't going higher anymore.
Everyone is acting very irresponsibly and building another bubble and crash in 2022 scenario. We're past the point where
earnings matter anymore. The levels of price are unjustifiable in almost all equities. In the main market, I do find SRAC interesting here, before it is swapped into Momentus.
Last edited by Snowball; 06-22-21, 03:49 PM.Comment -
So no rest yesterday as the market kept the band playing and up the mountain slope we went. I think its gonna start getting harder to continue the closer they come to the all time high in the SPY. This just in, the NASDAQ is already at their high and will probably continue for the rest of the week or until the SPY and more likely my favorite index indicator IWM roll over.
Depending on how today and tomorrow goes, I'll be adding to my short play on IWM by purchasing the TZA. Not shooting the full wad, just a little more skin in the game. So about a month ago it was just the tip, and now I'm sliding in slightly deeper but keeping plenty of shaft in reserve.
Also picked up some more AU yesterday when it gapped down to 18.40. I just couldn't help myself. I think the market is wrong with commodities lately and the dollar will pull back below the latest break out levels which will spark a big run. Before all of that however there will be some nothing to drifting lower going on in the gold and silver markets. So commodities is all about oil right now for the short term or the next few weeks, then the metals will join oil and eventually blow up. Say hello to $4.00 gas, unless you're in Commiefornia, there it will be $5.50.Comment -
VKIN / CEI (same co about to merge 1-1 swap) starting its move over a dollar.Comment -
What are we thinking for cold fusion?
Helion Energy
TAE Technologies?
Anyone trying to get into the private placement. Any word on IPO's?
GOAT this might be up your alley.Comment -
infrastructure bill VERY close.
got XLF and CX calls.Comment -
Does anyone see Ford going to $20? I think it can within a couple years.....המוסד
המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים
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Recaf
I hope at least one of you jumped in on April 15thComment -
OK still playing the ref here today, opening above 424.5 on the SPY is bullish and a gap over an area the market couldn't do during normal business hours. It puts the all time high on the table and the rescue operation would be intact with the band playing the same slow grinding songs they've been playing for the last few months. Hourly candle closes below 422.50 is a bear interception and they would take the ball here. If that were to happen look for support at around 420. Employment numbers may have a play here in the next few minutes.Comment -
Bullish on Delta variant....Tesla now...eventually Amazon and Alibaba rocket emojisComment -
Yeah Chico, your SBR family is always here.
May you get more positive good days than bad ones going forward and if you do need any kind of surgery, even at the hand, try to get in shape and be strong. It always pays off on the back end when recovering.
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Just got off the phone W/Chico, sounds good, I try, 2make him laugh.Comment -
I rode the CX July 8's and XLF June 25th 36.50s
Now only on July (3rd week standard, the 16th) 37.50 calls
but still have CX on radar for a pullback
CX is worth more given today's seminar they did, but it went up a lot today.
Banks currently my favorite sector for coming weeks. General market must stay in uptrend.
All dividend and buyback restrictions ended for banks now. They can start doing more for shareholders in July.Comment -
Just finished a book I highly recommend reading if you are investing long term. especially if you are waiting for the collapse of the US market.
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Baidu..adding this to a basket of China stonks I recently entered...honestly baba JD pdd bidu “all look same” >< which is bullish afComment -
Buying opportunity of a lifetime....right now. In China....save me your ideological story...I’m here to make muneyComment -
If you are into stock an options, well worth the read and the plays are worth following. I posted their ROOT calls here a while back and they fetched over 500% from the suggested bid and if you bought it when priced dipped from the suggested bid, you could have gained over 4000% gain since it went from 5 cents to over $2. When the play was suggested it was going for around 35 cents and that was the suggested bid. Anyways, it was plays that I copied and pasted form betting resource. Betting resource just sent out the stock market outlook for the 2nd half of 2021 with a big play on gold and silver. Below is the copy paste of the emails.
2021 Gold/Silver 3rd and 4th quarter
In the 3rd quarter gold will start its next rally and should peak in the 4th quarter sometime in November. Many pundits have been calling Gold and Silver rally for the past 8 months without a timeline and without realizing how these metals consolidate. Unlike most equity, Gold and Silver are some of the few with quarterly option expiry which falls on the final day of March, June, September and July. The volume on these quarterly expiry has been very high throughout the year. In most cases investors can buy and sell these quarterly options as far as 1 year out. After the Pandemic crash, Gold and Silver rallied from mid march to Aug 7th. Last august billions worth of over priced calls were sold for expiry far as June 30th. Prices have been consolidating for these calls to expire worthless. Gold and Silver are currently at or near final phase of consolidation. Perhaps it could move few points lower between now and two weeks into July but if you want to go long, this is the right time to start accumulating your positions. Prices may or may not dip a little more between now and mid July but if it dips, everything would be gained back rapidly once it gets going later in July. There are many tickers associated with silver and gold for options but the best bang for the buck is with the SILJ and GDXJ since these funds focus on low market cap companies.
I expect Gold and Silver to take off soon after June 30th quarterly option expiry. There is a looming weak or two long overall market correction in July which may cause the metals to dip briefly but will bounce hard quickly. All the writings are on the wall for gold and silver to lift off soon after June 30 options expiry. Many who exited the cryptos will come into gold. Price may dance plus or minus few points from today's price from now to 1 or 2 weeks into July. Then it will fly until late august before consolidating for 2 weeks. There will be minor corrections along the way but each correction will be followed up with even bigger gain. Expect the biggest gains to happen between mid September to mid November. By mid November this rally should peak before the next consolidation process begins that could last a quarter or two or a year. Market makers will sell a lot of overpriced calls at the rally's peak and that is when we will cash most of our positions, but we will also buy extra positions to cash in early. Late November to mid December the price should bounce around the peak and should come down as the December 31th quarterly approaches.
In this rally gold should peak around $2500 to $2600 and silver around $45 to $50--possibly even a bit higher. I will focus on the SILJ and GDXJ tickers since they have the best upside for options.
My SILJ and GDXJ safe target for this rally before the year end is $35 and $95 respectively. Extreme target is $45 and $150. If $30 for SILJ and $80 for GDXJ are reached by 1st week of September, extreme target is very likely by November.
Below are my suggestions for options. Be sure to play the insurance plays as well. My suggestion is for 100 contracts but you can buy whatever you can afford. The insurance contracts are minimum recommended ratio for the 100 contracts. If you can afford, you can play the insurance at equal number of contracts. Between now and Mid July, it is possible that the price of these options could fall below my suggested bids, but don’t wait for it. Instead start accumulating now at or better than suggested price, then add more to average down if prices go down.
Volatility on Options are highest during the 1st hour of the market day. You may see much higher bid prices for low quantity around this time. Leave your bid at suggested price instead of paying ask price. If it fills and if price falls, you can either add more to average down or simply wait for the take off in July. You shouldn’t pay more than the suggested price for these options.
SILJ Nov 19'21 $23 Call. Suggested price: 50 cents or better. 100 contracts.
Cost of 100 contracts at 50 cents is $5000
Sell Target $10. Proceeds from selling 100 contracts at $10 is $100,000
GDXJ Nov 19'21 $70. Suggested Price: 50 cents or better. 100 contracts
Cost of 100 contracts at 50 cents is $5000
Sell Target $20. Proceeds from selling 100 contracts at $20 is $150,000
Note: Keep an eye on the $65 strike. If this comes anywhere close to 50 cents some time before mid july, it is highly recommended that you take positions by doubling up. This will present great opportunity to take profit early and ride the rest risk free to the target.
Early profit taking insurance:
SILJ Nov 19'21 $20 Call 80 cents or better. 50 contracts
Cost of 50 contracts at 80 is $4000
Sell Target $6. Proceeds from selling 50 contracts at $6 is $30,000
GDXJ Nov 19'21 $55 call $2.10 or better. 20 contracts.
Cost of 20 contracts at $2.10 is $4200
Sell Target $20. Proceeds from selling 20 contracts at $20 is $30,000
Note: If The price of these insurance plays falls by 50% before mid July, it is highly recommended that you double up here as well.
Overall in August and September there should many easy short term lotto options that are high risk high reward that we will play on individual companies not just related to metals but many other sectors. Stay tuned.
Overall Market Out Look for 2nd half of 2021 (3rd and 4th quarter)
I am bullish once again. The final phase of the 40 year bull market and the melt up phase will continue for the time being as we approach the next catalyst. The big recession is unlikely to begin this year. We should closely watch the actions of the feds and policies to monitor the situation for possible trigger in December or early 2022. Feds already moved down the rate hike target from 2024 for to 2023. They will probably move it down again in a few months. Eventually the catalyst that will trigger the recession can happen sometime in 2022 or 2023--before or after the mid term elections in USA. It can also be prolonged. Can't say exactly when until few months leading up to it. My quarterly updates will continue to monitor the situation. For the moment rapid economic expansion will continue. As we have seen in the history, rapid expansion will eventually end in recession but I am very bullish for the third and 4th quarter of 2021. There is however a looming correction by mid July that could last a few days to a week. June 30th quarterly options expiry is a big one and expect some erratic moves in many equity--It could be turbulent until mid July. For the next two quarters growth, tech, gold, silver, semiconductors should come out of consolidation and rally hard to new highs. For the main indices, Nasdaq will resume its rally from consolidation for multiple new highs. Each mini correction will be followed up with new high. August through November is going to present insanely good opportunities to make money with options. I will cover some very good plays for you guys, stay tuned!
In previous outlooks I mentioned that cybersecurity/hacking to play a big role during the next catalyst like the virus played in the previous flash crash in march 2020. When the real crash begins, the recession period should last 1 to few years. In the past, big wars were used to come out of recession. But now the elites' portfolios are far more diverse rather than depending only on certain sectors. Therefore, big scale real wars are not good news for them in a consumer driven global economy; invisible wars like pandemic, cyber pandemic etc are far better. One important thing to keep an eye on is aliens/ufo and how it will play out since it is perfect for invisible war. Don't worry, we do not have any real threats from aliens anytime soon. If you hear about any threats, it will be made up. Based on how things are brewing in the policies and in the world economic forum, there is a very good possibility that the population could be made to believe that there are potential alien attacks/threats--it will all be manufactured by humans if it happens. This will be much easier to pull off than the pandemic. Population will not have much resource in this regard and they will have to rely on so called experts.
Many wondered why the declassification of ufo files were included in the covid relief bills last year and questioned what it has to do with the pandemic—well, it has everything to do with the economy. When the declassification of the files happen, they will leave things vague and will not deny or confirm alien/ufo existence or visitation--naturally the talking heads will control the narrative both ways and eventually one side will get stronger as people are conditioned. As an investor, all you need to remember is that all blurry videos or so called potential evidence in the files are all military or scientific experiments/activities but what matters for your portfolio is public perception. If the majority of the public are convinced that there is potential alien threat, as investors we could make a lot of money during the recession buy picking up the right stocks and options. If they do not straight up deny aliens/ufo's in the declassification process, they are opening a new can of worms with some future incidents such as attacks on communication or other satellites, space stations etc that can be blamed on unknown forces. Space is getting crowded with new satellites and there are many new older satellites that are disposable to replace with new ones. Intentional destruction of those satellites can be narrated to the population as something else. Creating panic among the gullible social media/msm starving population is very easy by cutting off communication channels briefly to blame the aliens. This may seem far stretched but all the writings are on the wall for potential (manufactured) alien threats. Since the pandemic started, numerous SPACE related ETFs and companies have been started and a lot of big money is flowing into them just like how new PHARMA/Vaccine companies/etfs were started in 2018 and 2019 leading up to the pandemic. This doesn't mean you should put your money into all these new things that are popping up. If the catalyst begins and if the narrative takes shape, we will pick some names to invest just like we did with novavax and moderna for the vaccines in march 2020. For now, we will simply monitor the situation. When/if the time comes, we will strike. This can have a combined effect with the cyber security issues and the commodity boom cycle that I covered in the previous outlooks.
As for near term, there is going to be great opportunity with options in the next quarters. First half of this year didn't present many opportunities due to many sectors consolidating as value stocks was in the driving seat. Those consolidating sectors will now take the driver seat for the second half of the year.
Kind Regards,
Betting ResourceComment
