Bill Simmons on why the Niners win:
"The 2011 Saints averaged 36.5 points indoors and 23.8 points outdoors (where they were 1-3 against the spread). The Saints played last week; the Niners are coming off a bye and have to be the healthiest playoff team in recent memory. The Saints struggle to score if they can't run the ball (as covered above); the Niners swallow up the run as well as anyone. These Saints want to avoid those ugly, hard-hitting, field goal-laden, "22-19"-type outdoor games in which their offense never totally gets going, their opponent shortens the game and special teams (and turnovers) play a giant factor; the Niners specialize in those ugly games, especially at home. If you don't think the Niners are growing out Candlestick's grass, watering the field for a little too long, leaving it a little more muddy than usual, or doing whatever else it takes to slow this game down, think again. The Saints have a built-in coaching advantage in nearly every game because of Sean Payton; the Niners have Jim Harbaugh, who did the best coaching job of anyone this season."
I'm with him, and really think the Niners are getting undervalued this week.
"The 2011 Saints averaged 36.5 points indoors and 23.8 points outdoors (where they were 1-3 against the spread). The Saints played last week; the Niners are coming off a bye and have to be the healthiest playoff team in recent memory. The Saints struggle to score if they can't run the ball (as covered above); the Niners swallow up the run as well as anyone. These Saints want to avoid those ugly, hard-hitting, field goal-laden, "22-19"-type outdoor games in which their offense never totally gets going, their opponent shortens the game and special teams (and turnovers) play a giant factor; the Niners specialize in those ugly games, especially at home. If you don't think the Niners are growing out Candlestick's grass, watering the field for a little too long, leaving it a little more muddy than usual, or doing whatever else it takes to slow this game down, think again. The Saints have a built-in coaching advantage in nearly every game because of Sean Payton; the Niners have Jim Harbaugh, who did the best coaching job of anyone this season."
I'm with him, and really think the Niners are getting undervalued this week.