LTA's NFL PLays

[absolutkaos]

Bill Simmons on why the Niners win:
"The 2011 Saints averaged 36.5 points indoors and 23.8 points outdoors (where they were 1-3 against the spread). The Saints played last week; the Niners are coming off a bye and have to be the healthiest playoff team in recent memory. The Saints struggle to score if they can't run the ball (as covered above); the Niners swallow up the run as well as anyone. These Saints want to avoid those ugly, hard-hitting, field goal-laden, "22-19"-type outdoor games in which their offense never totally gets going, their opponent shortens the game and special teams (and turnovers) play a giant factor; the Niners specialize in those ugly games, especially at home. If you don't think the Niners are growing out Candlestick's grass, watering the field for a little too long, leaving it a little more muddy than usual, or doing whatever else it takes to slow this game down, think again. The Saints have a built-in coaching advantage in nearly every game because of Sean Payton; the Niners have Jim Harbaugh, who did the best coaching job of anyone this season."

I'm with him, and really think the Niners are getting undervalued this week.

[Redscot]

In the NFL, it's rare for one team to beat another team two times in one season, let along two obliterations in one season. That first NE/Denver game was more about turnovers. What if Denver and Tebow cuts down on the turnovers? Does NE still obliterate them?

I can't remember, but wasn't Von Miller out when NE and Denver played about a month ago?

Not sure either, but Von has been far less effective with the cast on his hand. It comes down to Belichek and Tebow for me. I think the game plan will be solid and they will bend and not break awaiting Tebow mistakes. Belichek is a master game planner and his team will not come out flat. Tebow, what can I say , still ain't sold. Brady will put up his points imo. I have no plans at the moment of betting this game yet, so that should give you an idea about the uncertainty I feel, that is a lot of points to cover.

[Donnie Brasco]

The denver secondary also had some issues in that game secondary to poor communication and some injuries which they have apparently resolved. Gonzales wont run free down the filed today i promise!

[absolutkaos]

According to ESPN, Decker is out with sprained knee. This is going to hurt the Den offense, he's been their top receiver all year. DT had a great game last week, but you gotta think that NE will be keying on him this week.

[hey buddy]

In the NFL, it's rare for one team to beat another team two times in one season, let along two obliterations in one season. That first NE/Denver game was more about turnovers. What if Denver and Tebow cuts down on the turnovers? Does NE still obliterate them?

I can't remember, but wasn't Von Miller out when NE and Denver played about a month ago?

The Pats already beat the Jets and Dolphins twice this season so I wouldn't say beating a team twice in one season is rare. Blowing them out? Perhaps but it has been done. Turnovers are definitely a key and hard to determine but NE had 34 of them defensively this year so they give up yards/points but also make the big plays.

Yes, Miller was out the last time they played so that has to be considered.

[Donnie Brasco]

I meant Hernandez not Gonzales

[SimonSayz]

Bill Simmons on why the Niners win:
"The 2011 Saints averaged 36.5 points indoors and 23.8 points outdoors (where they were 1-3 against the spread). The Saints played last week; the Niners are coming off a bye and have to be the healthiest playoff team in recent memory. The Saints struggle to score if they can't run the ball (as covered above); the Niners swallow up the run as well as anyone. These Saints want to avoid those ugly, hard-hitting, field goal-laden, "22-19"-type outdoor games in which their offense never totally gets going, their opponent shortens the game and special teams (and turnovers) play a giant factor; the Niners specialize in those ugly games, especially at home. If you don't think the Niners are growing out Candlestick's grass, watering the field for a little too long, leaving it a little more muddy than usual, or doing whatever else it takes to slow this game down, think again. The Saints have a built-in coaching advantage in nearly every game because of Sean Payton; the Niners have Jim Harbaugh, who did the best coaching job of anyone this season."

I'm with him, and really think the Niners are getting undervalued this week.

I love this analysis....I am already on the UNDER and this helped with my decision.

[Donnie Brasco]

I hope some money hits sf and brings this thing down. Would love love love the saints -3 or 2.5!

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Round 1

0 - 2 = -2.2

NFL 2011-2012 Season

85 - 79 = -1.2x

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Round 2

Play #1

Saints/49'ers under (47.5) 1x (Locked)

If you don't succeed, try, try again. I'm not sure that applies to sports investing, especially when you are betting Saints unders, however, in this case I just can't pass it up. This 49'er defense is probably the best defense they have played all season. As we all know, this is a different Saints offense when they play outdoors and that definitely plays a factor today against this 49'er defense which is top 5 in rushing and passing defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. When you factor in a SF offense which is not the most explosive and which will surely try to keep the ball out of Brees' hands with ball control mentality, I think we have a nice shot getting coverage on the key number of 47. I have this game set at 45.5, so not the most value here, but in the playoffs, margins are razor thin and getting coverage on the key number of 47 is key. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Dmil]

I think N.E. obliterates Denver personally. I have a small play on the S.F under and another small Tease S.F./under. Love to hear what you are thinking

[quote=Redscot;13237001]I think N.E. obliterates Denver personally. I have a small play on the S.F under and another small Tease S.F./under. Love to hear what you are thinking
Totally agree with ya. Pittsburgh slepted on Denver, Coach Omar Epps did a terrible job at resting his players toward season ends. Belichick has the blueprint to defeat Tebow. Pats Crushed them in Denver, now Decker out, V.Miller is not as effective with one hand and there on the road. Tonight u will see the Great QB vs the Fake QB.

[joco]

sf +3.5, sf ml and under 47!

[Donnie Brasco]

Interesting, saints ML falling, juice on spread up from 120 to 125?

[Anthonyg7]

NFL 2011-2012 Playoffs Round 2

Play #1

Saints/49'ers under (47.5) 1x (Locked)

If you don't succeed, try, try again. I'm not sure that applies to sports investing, especially when you are betting Saints unders, however, in this case I just can't pass it up. This 49'er defense is probably the best defense they have played all season. As we all know, this is a different Saints offense when they play outdoors and that definitely plays a factor today against this 49'er defense which is top 5 in rushing and passing defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. When you factor in a SF offense which is not the most explosive and which will surely try to keep the ball out of Brees' hands with ball control mentality, I think we have a nice shot getting coverage on the key number of 47. I have this game set at 45.5, so not the most value here, but in the playoffs, margins are razor thin and getting coverage on the key number of 47 is key. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

On this one too bro.. nice to see you on the same side. good luck this weekend bud.

[GChild]

Glad I stop playing unders in NFL

[TomatoFace]

I'm gonna have to hedge the 2nd half. Put too much on the under.

[Trivial]

I'm gonna have to hedge the 2nd half. Put too much on the under.

What are you thinking?

[Dmil]

I'm gonna have to hedge the 2nd half. Put too much on the under.

At 23.5 there a great chance your can get pinched from both sides.

[Trivial]

At 23.5 there a great chance your can get pinched from both sides.

I know. Under gets you an extra 7 pointS of 47. Over you might land in the middle.

[doogtonmai]

I'm going with San Fran +4.5 and O 23.5 parlay cover bet loss 2nd half. I feel it stays under for the teaser bet but over the regulation line. I don't see the Saints winning by more than 10, but I still feel San Fran finds a way to win or lose by a field goal.

[Donnie Brasco]

Really like denver +14

[doogtonmai]

Reversing Live Betting to Under

[doogtonmai]

Well, lost 1 unit Live Betting 1 unit from LTA's pick; however, picked up 3.5 units on the cover parlay. 2nd half...guess Live Betting is for the degenerate gamblers or maybe simply taking advantage of flow.

[Trivial]

I missed the hedge on the OVER on 2h at 23.5. I feel so bad.

[Dmil]

I missed the hedge on the OVER on 2h at 23.5. I feel so bad.

liar

[Trivial]

liar

I have to admit I was scared, so i had the chance for a while. By the time I said "do it" it was too late. My fear got the better of me.

The under 47.5 also loked good until the last few minutes.

[Trivial]

Good luck to all playing Denver.

I have:

Denver +14
Denver ML
Under 50.5

[Trivial]

Will never bet an under in football playoffs again.

[GChild]

Will never bet an under in football playoffs again.

Yep

[Trivial]

Well LTA and Red. Looks like my Denver to win Superbowl is dead. :-) i am just hoping to somehow cover Denver +14 tonight.

[Redscot]

Well LTA and Red. Looks like my Denver to win Superbowl is dead. :-) i am just hoping to somehow cover Denver +14 tonight.

Well,it was fun while it lasted bud , would have been a great hit.

Man, gotta admit I am little gun shy myself on these unders after that S.F. game, I really liked that play.

Today I forsee a nightmare for Yates. He got away with some bad throws last week, and the Bengals D cannot be compared to this Ravens D, at home, well rested and well game planned. On the flip side, I don't see an easy go of it for Flacco, he has certainly had his struggles in the post season. Both teams will probably try to establish the run and get their QB's some high percentage throws early to get them confident, problem is both of these teams stuff the run well and may put the QB in some 3rd and longs early.....

I like the Ravens to roll personally, I think it will be too much for the young Yates. I also lean under , especially if I can get it at 37 1/2, but I am concerned about the Ravens D putting up some points today and that will probably keep me away.

What are your guys thoughts out there on the early game?

[BIGPOPPA144]

Ray Rice's ability to catch screens and plays into the flat will keep the Texan's D honest and this will be enough for even Flacco to have a couple deep shots. Ravens by 10

[Trivial]

Well,it was fun while it lasted bud , would have been a great hit.

Man, gotta admit I am little gun shy myself on these unders after that S.F. game, I really liked that play.

Today I forsee a nightmare for Yates. He got away with some bad throws last week, and the Bengals D cannot be compared to this Ravens D, at home, well rested and well game planned. On the flip side, I don't see an easy go of it for Flacco, he has certainly had his struggles in the post season. Both teams will probably try to establish the run and get their QB's some high percentage throws early to get them confident, problem is both of these teams stuff the run well and may put the QB in some 3rd and longs early.....

I like the Ravens to roll personally, I think it will be too much for the young Yates. I also lean under , especially if I can get it at 37 1/2, but I am concerned about the Ravens D putting up some points today and that will probably keep me away.

What are your guys thoughts out there on the early game?

It was fun while it lasted, but I didn't expect it to, just would have been nice if it did.

My view on the early game is either Ravens -7.5 or nothing. I have no intention of touching the side in this game. Exactly like you, the game should go UNDER, but pick 6's will kill us, and the Ravens are certainly capable of getting 1-2 of those in a game like this with a QB that will be under the gun and under pressure.

I likely will avoid this game and just go to the late game, but if I do anything, it will be Ravens -7 (I may buy the hook), but definitely no side.

In the late game I like:

Giants +9
Giants ML
Over 52.5

[absolutkaos]

Well,it was fun while it lasted bud , would have been a great hit.

Man, gotta admit I am little gun shy myself on these unders after that S.F. game, I really liked that play.

Today I forsee a nightmare for Yates. He got away with some bad throws last week, and the Bengals D cannot be compared to this Ravens D, at home, well rested and well game planned. On the flip side, I don't see an easy go of it for Flacco, he has certainly had his struggles in the post season. Both teams will probably try to establish the run and get their QB's some high percentage throws early to get them confident, problem is both of these teams stuff the run well and may put the QB in some 3rd and longs early.....

I like the Ravens to roll personally, I think it will be too much for the young Yates. I also lean under , especially if I can get it at 37 1/2, but I am concerned about the Ravens D putting up some points today and that will probably keep me away.

What are your guys thoughts out there on the early game?

After Bill Simmons went 4-0 ATS last week, and 2-0 yesterday, I can't help but roll with his picks again today...this short write up on the early game puts it all in a nutshell, can't help but see the game turning out this way...

"RAVENS (-7.5) over Texans
My only worry about this game: It looks too easy. You know the Ravens will sell out to stop the run and dare rookie QB T.J. Yates to beat them; you know Houston will do everything it can to avoid putting Yates in that spot (which means we'll get to watch Arian Foster and Ben Tate stubbornly running into eight Ravens for the entire first half); you know Baltimore does the "front-runner piling it on at home" routine better than just about anyone; and you know Ray Rice will be heard from in this game.


All right, so let's say the Ravens go up by double digits on Sunday … what then? We're supposed to think T.J. Yates is going to rally the Texans back? It's fun to think the Texans can hang around with their defense, turn this into a low-scoring slugfest, then hope Joe Flacco can give them a late turnover and steal the game late. And yes, we're riding a six-year streak of home playoff teams submitting a stinkbomb in Round 2 — as fans of the 2010 Patriots, 2009 Chargers, 2008 Panthers, 2007 Colts, 2006 Chargers/Ravens and 2005 Colts/Bears would tell you — and really, there's no better candidate than the 2011 Ravens (a pretty flawed team). But backing T.J. Yates on the road? I can't. I just can't."

[Trivial]

Who is Bill Simmons?